Israelis to Obama: 'The hell you'll tell us whom to vote for'
President Hussein Obama's efforts to influence Israel's upcoming election may be backfiring. This is Anshel Pfeffer, one of Haaretz's more Leftist writers.
Tonight's @haaretzcom poll is the worst for Labor in a long while: Leaves Herzog with no option for a coalition. Ensures Netanyahu 4th term.
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) February 2, 2015
Haaretz - for those who have forgotten - is Israel's Hebrew 'Palestinian' daily, probably the most Leftist rag among Israel's better known Leftist rags. (By the way, only about 5% of Israelis read Haaretz - they have a much wider audience among the elites in the US and Europe).
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud would win 25 seats and the Labor Camp would secure only 23 if elections were held today, a new poll conducted by Haaretz-Dialog found on Monday.
The poll, which was conducted under the supervision
of Professor Camil Fuchs with a representative sample of 514
respondents, showed Netanyahu gaining three more seats than what his
party was predicted to win in the last poll conducted in January. The
margin of error in the poll was 4.2 percent.
Naftali Bennett's Habayit Hayehudi weakened in this poll to receive 14 seats, compared to 16 in the last survey.
The Joint List (Hadash and Arab parties) strengthened, predicted to win
12 seats, while Yesh Atid weakened from 12 to nine seats.
Kulanu and United Torah Judaism were both slated
for eight seats, while Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas were predicted to
receive six seats. Respondents gave Meretz five seats and Yachad was
predicted to get four.
That would put the Right at 25+14+8+6+6+4 = 63, the Left at 23+9+5 = 37, the Arabs (who have never been in any coalition at 12 and Kulanu (which really could go either way) at 8.
Knesset Coalition Chairman MK Yariv Levin (Likud) on Saturday
indicated in a TV interview that the coalition may be in for a shake-up
in the near future - and that "childish" Finance Minister Yair Lapid
(Yesh Atid) does not have high chances of being invited back in.
"We must weigh the possibility of a change in the coalition composition through the addition of the haredi parties," Levin told Channel 10. "It might be that there's no choice but to leave Lapid out."
Lapid has long been at odds with the hareidi parties of Shas and
United Torah Judaism (UTJ), particularly through his push for the
Enlistment Law requiring a mandatory hareidi IDF draft, and recently
through his 0% VAT bill that would give those who serve in the IDF
benefits buying their first home.
The latter bill has received such harsh criticism that one hareidi MK from UTJ recently threatened "apartheid" Israel with an "Arab rebellion" over the bill.
Levin also slammed Lapid for his statements during Operation
Protective Edge in Gaza; not long after Israel reached a ceasefire with
the terrorist group Hamas, Lapid called for a return to the "diplomatic"
process, urging a return to peace talks.
"If such not serious, irresponsible and even childish behavior
continues, then we certainly must consider the possibility of a change
in the composition (of the coalition)," said Levin, subtly targeting
Lapid.
The Coalition Chairman added that because of the need to consider a
change, he is not worried about Lapid's threats last Wednesday to quit the coalition if taxes are raised following Operation Protective Edge.
This would really be rich if it happened.... But don't hold your breath waiting for it to happen.
MK's from Left urge Netanyahu to freeze 'settlement construction' rather than release terrorists
Fifteen MK's from Labor, the Tzipi Livni party and Shas (yes, on the 'peace process,' they lean Left) have urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to cancel the fourth terrorist release - scheduled for Sunday - and freeze 'settlement construction' instead.
"A settlement freeze can always be stopped and 'thawed'," the MKs
wrote. "But to undo the release of more prisoners and murderous
terrorists cannot be undone. To the contrary, in releasing them there is
the danger that they will return to terror activities and will continue
to hurt Israeli citizens," they added.
"Therefore, we call on you
to act immediately in order to switch the gesture of freeing prisoners
and terrorists with the gesture of freezing settlements."
The MKs
wrote that the move would be welcomed by the Zionist Right and the
bereaved families whose relatives were victims of the terrorists.
In
addition to [Labor MK's] Bar and Bar-Lev, the letter was signed by Labor's Eitan
Cabel, Shelly Yacimovich, Nachman Shai, Moshe Mizrahi, Stav Shaffir,
Itzik Shmuli, Erel Margalit, Miki Rosenthal, Michal Biran and Avishai
Braverman. From Hatnua, MK David Tsur signed the letter and from Shas,
MKs Ya'acov Margi and Yitzhak Cohen signed.
"Before the negotiations with the Palestinians began, Israel was
given the option of choosing between one of two gestures to the
Palestinians. One Israeli gesture was to freeze construction in the
settlements. The second option was the release of terrorist prisoners in
several batches,” wrote the MKs.
"Unfortunately," they continued, "the government chose the gesture of
releasing terrorists and not the other gesture it was offered - a
settlement freeze."
The MKs called on Netanyahu to “replace the gesture” and freeze construction in Judea and Samaria.
Well, yeah, if that was the choice at the outset, the government should have chosen the freeze. But it has never been clear that was the choice. It was more like the 'Palestinians' wanted both and were persuaded to make due with getting one officially and being able to protest the other.
In any event, there is no way that Obama-Kerry will let Israel do that without the 'Palestinians' consent, and you can bet that consent will not be forthcoming. Moreover, given that the 'negotiations' are doomed to failure (and were from the outset, but that's almost beside the point now), why should we make any substitute 'gesture' at all. Just cancel the terrorist release! So says Jewish Home MK Motti Yogev (with whom I agree on this one).
"I'm not in favor of continuing negotiations. I am in favor of us
creating peace on the ground, first and foremost by annexing Judea and
Samaria in stages, first in area C,” he told Arutz Sheva. “The
Arabs would have better lives under Israeli sovereignty than anywhere
else. Am I in favor of blowing up the talks? Absolutely. Let’s take
things into our hands and give the Palestinians better lives than they
would get in any other state.”
Yogev added that contacts with the Palestinian Arabs should be ongoing, but certainly not with the PA, which continues to incite against Israel even as talks are held.
"We should continue our relationship with the Palestinians, but not
necessarily with the PA which seeks our destruction, and educates its
children and its future generations towards that destruction,” he said.
“There's nothing to talk to them about and certainly we should not make
any ‘gestures’ to them. As for the American pressure, we have to know
how to handle it.”
Yogev also made clear that he opposes the idea of releasing Jonathan
Pollard in exchange for Israel releasing more terrorists, in the wake of
recent rumors that the United States was considering releasing Pollard as a way of convincing Israel to continue the talks.
Tying the Pollard issue with the peace talks and with releasing terrorists is wrong and immoral, Yogev declared.
"Pollard should have been released a long time ago,” he said. “His
punishment has been far beyond proportional for such an offense. He is
in his thirtieth year in prison. They wouldn’t even let him go to his
father’s funeral or shiva. If we take into account the fact that he is
ill, there is a humanitarian issue here."
Yogev continued, "If the Americans are thinking about using Pollard
as a bargaining chip, then this is yet another step in the moral
deterioration of the foreign policy of President Obama and his Secretary
of State, John Kerry, and we should not cooperate with this. I do not
want to insult them. There is a lot of strategic cooperation between
Israel and the U.S., but they have been showing their immorality bit by
bit.”
“Pollard should be released unconditionally and murderous terrorists
should not be released under any circumstances,” he added. “The U.S.
would never release terrorists who carried out such cruel acts. Their
pressure on us to release terrorists so negotiations continue, as well
as pressuring us for a construction freeze, is one-sided and unethical,
and tying Jonathan Pollard into it is grossly immoral.”
Yogev also said that he believed that Pollard himself would not want to see terrorists released in exchange for his release.
There's just no point to these talks. In eight months, they have gone nowhere and accomplished nothing. In exchange for the privilege of talking to the Americans, Israel has released 78 murderous terrorists. A little common sense folks... Enough is enough!
Give Yair Lapid credit. He managed to do what no one else has managed to do. He managed to get together the three rabbinic councils of the Israeli Haredi world - the Lithuanian Degel HaTorah, the Hassidic Agudath Yisrael, and the Sephardic Shas - all in the same room to work together to defeat the new law intended to draft Haredim into the IDF.
The new conscription bill
being drafted in the government Shaked committee is slated to be a
historic move on the issue of drafting the ultra-Orthodox. But the
controversy surrounding the bill has already caused history to be made:
on Monday, the leading rabbis of the three ultra-Orthodox factions --
Shas, the hassidic Agudat Yisrael and the Lithuanian Degel Hatorah --
gathered for the first time to discuss how to defeat the new law.
Senior rabbis attended the historic event,
including Rabbi Aharon Leib Shteinman, leader of the Lithuanian sect;
Shas Council of Torah Sages member Rabbi Shalom Cohen; and senior
hassidic leaders. Rabbi Shmuel Auerbach, the extremist leader of the
Lithuanian-Jerusalem stream, who is in a dispute with rivals from
centrist factions, also took part in the meeting. The rabbis said they
planned to hold a mass prayer rally the Sunday after next and decided to
"immediately cancel the [government] committee's decision to force
military service."
Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to attend the demonstration.
"This is a bad law, never before seen," said MK Moshe Gafni (United Torah Judaism.)
Meanwhile, the Knesset committee for equating
the military burden was slated to vote on Tuesday that the new draft law
applied only to yeshiva students who studied in ultra-Orthodox
institutions, meaning that more ultra-Orthodox students will need to
enlist to meet the law's draft targets.
If you are in Israel and your cell phone set the clock back by an hour this morning, you'd better re-set it to be in Athens or Cairo or Pakistan....
Cell phone developers had prepared for the annual time change without
taking into account the possibility that the Knesset might change the date.
Concerns were raised Sunday that many may be late for work, after
mistakenly believing their phone is giving them the correct time.
Israelis usually set their clocks back by one hour in the week before
the Yom Kippur holiday. However, this year the clocks will only change
at the end of October, as is customary in Europe.
Daylight savings time is controversial in Israel, where it has become
part of the debate over religion and the state. The relatively early
time change in the fall that was customary in previous years was meant
to make life easier for observant Jews who wake up early for the Slichot
prayers, and for Jews who fast on Yom Kippur.
All this confusion will undoubtedly last until the next time that Shas gets hold of the Interior Ministry. And from the first link again....
Some experts argue that Israel should not switch the time at all. Summer
Time savings are minimal in Israel due to its being located closer to
the equator than Europe, they say.
Whenever you see Tzachi HaNegbi, pictured here with his former party, you have to ask how much he's being paid. HaNegbi will become the first member of the Likud to attend a J Street convention later this year, giving the pro-'Palestinian,' pro-Iranian organization an undeserved dose of credibility as representing the broader Jewish community.
Also participating will be Yitzchak Vaknin of Shas. Given that Vaknin already attended a convention of the Geneva Initiative two years ago, and given that Leftist Aryeh Deri seems to have pushed out the more right-leaning Eli Yishai for the party's leadership, this is less surprising than HaNegbi.
This is from the first link.
Hanegbi’s participation at the J Street conference, a result of
outreach efforts conducted by the lobby’s office in Israel, is viewed by
organizers as a mark of success. It is a sign, said Jessica Rosenblum,
the group’s director of media and communications, “of the growing
acceptance of J Street and the growing recognition of the common
purpose,” of advancing a two-state solution.
J Street’s founding in 2008 was initially met with a
cold shoulder by the Israeli government. Officials refused to meet with
the lobby’s activists and the Israeli embassy boycotted its events.
Since, however, the group established working relations with the embassy
and an Israel senior diplomat delivered a speech at last year’s
conference gala dinner. Hanegbi’s participation will signal yet another
step by J Street away from its lefty image and closer to the Israeli
mainstream.
Another first at this year’s conference will be the
participation of Yitzhak Vaknin of Shas at the event. Shas, a Sephardic
ultra-Orthodox party has supported in the past Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations but has since shifted to the right. Currently it is not a
member of the Netanyahu governing coalition.
There is no way that HaNegbi would be going to this conference without Netanyahu's approval. And Netanyahu is probably quite pleased that someone in the Likud aside from him is backing a 'two-state solution.' Most of the Likud MK's oppose it.
As to Vaknin, I already noted his Leftist background and that of the party's de facto current leader, Aryeh Deri. Sending Vaknin to J Street may be a pitch to convince Netanyahu that Shas is not too 'extremist' to be part of his government.
Of all the foolish things the Shas party did during its years holding the Interior Ministry, one of the most foolish things it did was play games with daylight savings time. As someone who prays at sunrise seven days a week for the last 16+ years, I appreciate more than most the desire to avoid wild fluctuations in sunrise and sunset. But what Shas did was simply selfish. In order to try to have a small portion of their voters saying slichoth prayers at 11:30 pm instead of 12:30 am, they gamed daylight savings time every year to try to ensure that it would end before the Jewish month of Elul started. The problem was that there are years like this year that the month of Elul starts in early August....
Eventually, the Knesset had enough and set a minimum number of days for daylight savings time. But the Shas ministers kept insisting that Yom Kippur had to be on standard (winter) time, because after all, 25 hours that end at 7:00 pm are much different than 25 hours that end at 6:00 pm.... And they also wanted the seder night to be on standard time (which it was this year for the first time in a long time), although not as much as they wanted as much of Elul as possible to be standard time....
But on the other hand, Meretz's Nitzan Horowitz goes way too far. He wants to keep daylight savings time into November. That's the same foolishness they have in the US, where the sun comes up at 8:00 am in November in many parts of the country. (In Europe, they can do that without daylight savings time, but that's because much of the continent is in the wrong time zone). If we were to have daylight savings time until November, sunrise would be close to 7:00 am. But in this country, many people start school and work at 8:00 am, so you're asking people to get to work in the dark (and for those of us who pray to pray even more in the dark). I often marvel how God made this country so hospitable to Judaism by our relatively small fluctuations in sunrise and sunset. And this is the world's only Jewish country - Nitzan Horowitz and Meretz notwithstanding.
I'm okay with extending daylight savings time, so long as sunrise in Jerusalem doesn't get later than the time it reaches naturally in January - 6:38 am. On my calendar, October 10 is as late as we can go without crossing that line.
Could something be up? Frustrated with the pace of coalition negotiations, Prime Minister Netanyahu met on Tuesday night with Shas leader Eli Yishai.
Coalition talks between Likud Beytenu and Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi
remained at a near-standstill Tuesday, meaning that the
government will most likely be sworn in next week. Amid the growing
hurdles to form the government Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu met
with joint chief of Shas MK and Interior Minister Eli Yishai on Tuesday
night.
Likud Beytenu’s hopes
of signing an agreement with Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi by Tuesday, presenting
his choices to President Shimon Peres Wednesday and then having the government
sworn in on Thursday following the legally mandated 24-hour waiting period, were
dashed. Netanyahu’s deadline to form a coalition is
Saturday night.
A new bone of contention arose between the parties – the
chairmanship of the Knesset Finance Committee – and this time, Bayit Yehudi
joined in the wrangling.
In a clear sign of strife between former
allies, Bayit Yehudi made public its demand for the powerful committee – which
carries the political cache of a ministry – citing the fact that Yesh Atid
leader Yair Lapid had received the Finance portfolio that Bayit Yehudi chairman
Naftali Bennett coveted, and that Bayit Yehudi had gone down from four to three
ministries due to Yesh Atid’s demands for a smaller government.
Sources
in Bennett’s party have expressed frustration over having made concessions to
help Yesh Atid achieve many of its objectives in coalition talks, while the
latter has not done the same for them.
...
On Tuesday night, perhaps in
recognition of the growing cracks between Bayit Yehudi and Yesh Atid the
PM meet with joint chief of Shas MK and Interior Minister Eli Yishai.
The Shas lawmaker on Wednesday morning commented on the coalition
negotiation process, which he has been largely excluded from up to this
point saying, "My heart goes out to the prime minister who is expected
in the coming years to be prisoner to the whims of Yesh Atid and Bayit
Yehudi."
Another hitch in coalition talks is the number
of ministries Hatnua would get. Hatnua leader Tzipi Livni and Likud Beytenu want
to leave it at two, as agreed upon in the parties’ coalition deal. However, Yesh
Atid and Bayit Yehudi’s portfolios go according to a ministerial index of one
per every four MKs, and they are demanding that the six-MK Hatnua follow the
same proportion.
Meanwhile, the clash between Likud Beytenu and Yesh Atid
over the Education portfolio – with the former insisting that current Education
Minister Gideon Sa’ar stay in the post and the latter wanting it to go to its
own MK Shai Piron – continued. Another option would be for Sa’ar to become
interior minister, but Yesh Atid has demanded to hold both disputed
portfolios.
Also Tuesday, a halachic responsum that Piron – a former
rabbi at the Petah Tikva Hesder Yeshiva – issued during the second intifada came
to light, saying that Jewish people should not rent homes to Arabs. Sources in
Yesh Atid accused the Likud of searching for “dirt” on Piron to deter the party
from holding on to the Education portfolio.
There are three possibilities here:
1. Netanyahu is hoping to convince Labor's Shelly Yacimovitch to join the Haredim and give him a coalition. That's kind of hard to believe given no reports of Netanyahu meeting with Yacimovitch.
2. Netanyahu has decided that Yesh Atid is more trouble than they're worth, and has actually started to convince Bayit Yehudi of the same thing. This dovetails with a mass letter of support from National Religious rabbis to Haredi rabbis that was reported in the Haredi media on Tuesday. Possible, but not the most likely possibility.
3. Netanyahu is trying to pressure Yair Lapid to get a deal done already by reminding him that there are other options. This seems most likely.
Divide and conquer? Bennett suggests to UTJ to join government without Shas, UTJ blows him off
In a bid to separate United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas, Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett has suggested to UTJ that they join the coalition alone, according to the Haredi website Kikar Shabbat (link in Hebrew). MK Rabbi Yaakov Litzman (above) was offered to keep his position as deputy Health Minister (in a ministry where there is no minister - that's how UTJ always takes portfolios. But UTJ turned it down.
According to Kikar Shabbat, Bennett's motivation is an effort to change his party's image as an enemy of the Torah world. Jewish Home is also looking for a Haredi public relations adviser to assist in an approach to the Haredi community. Bennett also made a video for the Haredi community on Wednesday night.
Let's go to the videotape (sorry, Hebrew only).
Why is Bennett doing this? Recall that UTJ got 17% of the vote in Judea and Samaria, and Shas got another 10%. While I would bet that much of that vote came from the Haredi cities right along the 'green line' (Kiryat Sefer and Beitar), it's likely that there are also a lot of people in those towns who voted for Bennett, and he's afraid that if he pulls all their sons out of the yeshivas, they won't vote for him again.
In the meantime, UTJ Knesset Member Rabbi Meir Porush has challenged Bennett to disclose his understandings with Yair Lapid (link in Hebrew), with respect to maintenance of the religious status quo. Porush argues that much of the national religious public would also like to know what understandings have been reached by Bennett and Lapid, particularly with respect to issues like public transportation on the Sabbath (there currently is none within any city that had a Jewish majority in 1948) and (although this isn't mentioned in the article) civil marriages (currently, the only marriages legally performed in Israel are religious marriages).
Porush is hitting a very sensitive point here. While the Haredi community would flee the organized Rabbinate and run its own sifrei yuchsin (genealogy books) in a second, the national religious community places religious significance on the state itself, and not just on the land. Changes in which the organized Rabbinate was rendered meaningless as an institution would not go over well with the national religious public.
Netanyahu tricked the Haredim into putting themselves outside the coalition?
If this story at Arutz Sheva is correct, the Jewish Home (Bayit Yehudi) - Yesh Atid pact between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid came into being because of things Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Haredi Shas party. And if it's correct, Netanyahu is about to sell the Haredim down the river, as he may have planned to do all along.
"During the election campaign, in the course of the last months and
weeks, we received ill winds from the Likud, which said that there is no
intention to include us in the government. We were expressly told this,
from within Netanyahu's bureau," the senior figures said.
"In our distress, we turned to one of the heads of Shas, Aryeh Deri.
This plea was made five weeks before the elections, and after the
elections as well. We begged for full cooperation but Deri refused to
meet with us. There were countless telephone calls, direct and indirect.
Deri told us that he had checked with the Prime Minister's Bureau and
he was told, there, that that there is no intention of adding Bayit
Yehudi to the coalition. 'Bayit Yehudi's place will be in the
Opposition,' Deri was told outright by Netanyahu's bureau."
According to the senior Bayit Yehudi figures, Deri and his men told
Bayit Yehudi – "Since we were told specifically that Netanyahu has no
intention of adding you to the coalition, we have no desire to create a
religious bloc with you. What do I gain by an alliance with Bayit
Yehudi? That is not my war to fight," Deri said.
Two days after the elections, Netanyahu told Deri again that Bayit
Yehudi will not be in the government, the senior figures said. "Deri
told us, 'I cannot solve your distress vis-à-vis the prime minister,'
and since then he did not get back to us. Deri basically threw us under a
bus. So we had to turn to Yair Lapid. Once the hareidim heard that a
'pact' was formed with Lapid, they asked to meet us. Now they are
creating the false picture that we abandoned them. We regret the lies
and half-truths that they have been spreading in the last few days. This
is the true story."
This story on the Hebrew side of the website claims that Shas has admitted that it's true. The story quotes a report in the Hebrew daily Maariv that says that in their meeting with Netanyahu on Sunday, the Shas leaders complained to Netanyahu "[W]e didn't make a bloc with Jewish Home so as not to anger you, and because of that we will now remain in opposition. Our rabbis told us 'don't make a mistake [by forming a bloc with Jewish Home] because this is the way that the Prime Minister wants it,' and look where we are because of that."
It could be that Netanyahu really did want to keep Jewish Home in opposition because of his wife's personal animosity for Bennett. If so, he has put his wife's feelings ahead of his duty to the country, and he ought to be forced out.
But there's a more insidious interpretation. Netanyahu may have wanted all along to be 'forced' not to have the Haredim in the government because he wanted to pursue the 'secular agenda.'
Jewish Home is now claiming that they will protect the Haredi yeshivoth, thus putting them behind a system in which they don't believe. This is from the first link.
The senior figures deny vehemently that the understandings with Lapid
will hurt the Torah world. "There will be no damage to the Torah world.
We will not let military police drag yeshiva students from their
'stenders' [the stands, usually wooden, that hold the holy books open in
study halls]. We will make sure of that. The Torah world is an eternal
and sacred value for us, too."
Maybe they figured out that if there's absolute equality there's no more shortened army service for hesder?
One other thing: Shas has to be wondering why they brought Aryeh Deri back. Deri was the party leader in the '90's and the early '00's until he was convicted of bribery and banned from the Knesset for ten years. Deri brought them no more seats than having Eli Yishai as party leader. I'm not convinced that Yishai would have misread the situation as much as the more dovish Deri did (doesn't that sound like Deri's wishful thinking - a coalition between the Haredim and the Left?). And now Deri appears to have thrown away their (and United Torah Judaism's) chance to be in the government.
Prime Minister and Likud Party Chairman Binyamin Netanyahu told
Co-Chairmen Ariel Atias, Aryeh Der'i and Eli Yishai of the
Sephardic-hareidi Shas party, Sunday afternoon that he is interested in
having Shas in the government but current political conditions tied his
hands. Shas party sources said the only way things could change would be
if Netanyahu could convince Labor Chairwoman Shelley Yechimovich to
join the government, which would allow the hareidi parties.
The
prime minister was expected to meet Chairman Naftali Bennett of Habayi
Hayehudi (Jewish Home-New National Religious Party) Sunday afternoon,
in a final effort to get Bennett to break with alliance partner Yesh
Atid, whose chairman, Yair Lapid, is opposed to joining a government
with the hareidi parties. Member of Knesset Uri Ariel, Chairman of
Habayit Hayehudi's negotiating team, said the party expects a picture of
where Netanyahu is headed after the conclusion of the meeting, adding
that the prime minister could reach a coalition agreement in a matter of
days.
And Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) thought they were attacked in this election? Just wait until the next one.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is said to be furious with Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett for what he sees as a conspiracy to prevent the Haredi parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) from joining a Likud-led coalition.
Sources who attended Netanyahu’s meeting with
Likud ministers said he spoke of Lapid and Bennett with contempt, complaining
that “their strategy is not to reach solutions on key issues, only to push out
the haredi parties.”
Ministers quoted Netanyahu as saying that Lapid and
Bennett cared only about advancing themselves politically rather than the good
of the country.
Mocking Lapid’s plan for equalizing the burden of IDF
service, Netanyahu said that “it will neither bring equality nor ease anyone’s
burden.”
Sources close to the prime minister went further, alleging that
Lapid and Bennett were aiming to break the 36-yearold bond between Likud and the
haredi parties, so that following the next election, they will not recommend
that Netanyahu form the government.
So far, at least, the Haredi parties have shown much more willingness to compromise than have Bennett and Lapid. JPost called this story a 'ploy' on Sunday, but the way it's being reported in the Haredi papers on Monday, it's for real.
A UTJ
official told the Post that the party was considering supporting a raft of
measures such as a settlement freeze, the evacuation of unauthorized settlement
outposts and the reopening of peace negotiations with the
Palestinians.
Such a move, he said, would allow the prime minister to
form a coalition with left leaning parties including The Tzipi Livni Party and
even Meretz, and leave Bayit Yehudi outside of the government.
The source
noted that the upcoming visit of US President Barak Obama would likely bring new
pressure from the White House to make concessions to the Palestinians, something
that his party is now considering supporting.
The UTJ official said that
the preservation of military service exemptions for haredi yeshiva students was
the single most important issue on the party’s agenda and that UTJ would be
willing to compromise on other issues in order to maintain the status quo on
haredi enlistment.
“The haredi public thinks that Bennett has gone to war
against them,” the UTJ official said. “We want to remind him that Netanyahu can
build a coalition without Bayit Yehudi and remind the national religious
community that Bennett ran a campaign on strengthening the national bloc and the
settlements, not on forming agreements with Yesh Atid.”
According to the
Council of Jewish Communities of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip, 17% of
voters in their region gave their support to the United Torah Judaism, as
opposed to Shas, which garnered only 10% of their vote.
Yes, but if you broke down those numbers by community, you would discover that there is likely just one town outside the security fence route (Emanuel) where there was significant support for UTJ. The two big Haredi cities (Kiryat Sefer and Beitar - mentioned later in the article) are close to the 'green line' and are part of the 'settlement blocs.' They would not be affected.
And in fact, the reports in the Haredi papers go even further, saying that the party will disclose to the public how much it really costs to protect each individual hill in Samaria. They're in a position to do it. UTJ never takes a ministry but they have chaired the Knesset Finance Committee for as long as I can remember.
Mrs. Carl calls this a 'pact with the devil' and it might well be. But I don't see the Haredi parties having any other leverage to maintain what they regard as their most important interest, which is to keep the yeshiva boys out of the army. Note that they're not supporting a 'Palestinian state' and I doubt they would without awfully solid security.
And yes, this is designed to put pressure on Naftali Bennett.... Back to the first link....
Channel 2 reported that Netanyahu
intended to build a coalition with the 57 MKs of Likud Beytenu, Shas, UTJ, The
Tzipi Livni Party and Kadima, and then give Bennett a choice between joining the
coalition without Lapid or initiating an election in which the Left could come
to power.
Livni denied a Channel 10 report that she had accepted the
justice portfolio.
I understand Lapid, but Bennett seems to forget that most of his mandates come from national religious revenants and not from the secular population. At least one 'settlement leader' agrees with me.
One settler leader told Yishai,
“Bennett is making a mistake if he is seeking a momentary deal with Lapid rather
than a stable bond with Shas.”
Yishai warned the settler leaders that “if
there will be a diplomatic process, Lapid will throw Bennett out of the
government.
We [in Shas], however, are not a spare tire for the
Left.”
Sources close to Bennett denied that his party sought a coalition
without haredim.
Eli Yishai's protests notwithstanding (recall that during the elections, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, Shas' spiritual guide, blasted Jewish Home as a party of goyim), my bet is on the 57 MK scenario and Bennett being presented with an ultimatum. He and Lapid have both gone too far. That's fine with Netanyahu. Sara doesn't like Bennett anyway.
Yair Lapid may have spoken very nicely to that group of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews that I showed you right after the election. But deep down, he's still Tommy's son. And to understand Yair Lapid's real positions, you have to know a little bit about his father, Tommy. This is from a post I did several years ago.
Not everyone has been pleased with the new olim (immigrants). In July
2002, nearly 400 American immigrants arrived in Israel at the height of
the 'Palestinian' war against the Jews. What could be more inspiring to a
country under siege, and in the throes of a long-term recession, than
400 Jews choosing voluntarily to plight their troth to Israel’s future?
These immigrants were not fleeing for their lives, but rather choosing
to enter a war zone. Most of them left behind secure jobs to come to a
country with unemployment at over 10% and rising.
Not
surprisingly, their arrival occasioned a great deal of fanfare. But a
few days before their plane touched down, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
published an article on Beit Shemesh, the planned destination of many
of the immigrants. In that article, then-Shinui leader Tommy Lapid
complained that North American aliyah is overwhelmingly religious. He
added for good measure, "Quite frankly Israel could do without
[religious North American Jews]." (Shinui was an anti-religious Israeli
political party).
Lapid subsequently clarified that he did not
mean to single out religious North American immigrants. In his opinion,
Israel could do without charedi (ultra-Orthodox) immigrants wherever
they come from; indeed it could do without the charedim that were
already here.
Yair seems to feel the same way. He tells Haredim that they've won enough that they can relax their guard and not worry about being assimilated, rails at how much the country spends on religious education, and yet... (Hat Tip: Shy Guy).
Lapid declared that his political agenda includes making the Reform and
Conservative movements – both popular in the United States – equal to
orthodox Judaism in terms of state support.
State support? As in money? So that's the agenda - take the money from the Haredi yeshivos and build reform and conservative temples all over the country?
Let's go to the videotape. More after the video.
“I want to do everything in my power to ensure the equality between
all movements of Judaism in the state of Israel, Orthodox, Conservative,
or Reform,” he declared. “In conversions, in budgets, in the eyes of
the law. No one can claim ownership over the Jewish God.”
“Small, old, petty politics cannot determine something that is eternal as is the Jewish identity, this is just wrong,” he added.
There are other things that concern Lapid.
He also spoke of his determination to negotiate with the Palestinian
Authority for the creation of an Arab state in Judea and Samaria, a
point that he has previously stated is a key condition to his
partnership in any coalition.
Failure to separate from the Arab population of Judea and Samaria
(Shomron) would mean that Israel ceases to be a Jewish state, he argued.
You will note also that Lapid credits the leaders of organizations who have presided over an intermarriage rate in excess of 50% for 'saving the Jewish identity.' SAVING WHAT????
All of which made me wonder about... Naftali Bennett.
Bennett leads a party that until recently was known as the National Religious Party. That party, now known as Jewish Home, is said to have a pact with Lapid that one will not go into the government without the other. In fact, a short while ago, a free newspaper was delivered to my house in which Shas leader Eli Yishai complains that the pact between Jewish Home and Lapid's Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party is 'stronger than he thought.' Really?
The National Religious Party - the group that sees the State of Israel in religious terms - is going to be a part of overseeing the dismantling of the Chief Rabbinate? The National Religious Party, which for 65 years symbolized the role of Orthodox Judaism in the State is now going to vote for funding for conservative and reform temples? And you wonder why Rabbi Ovadia Yosef had such nasty words for Jewish Home during the election (and yes, I heard people say that they would have voted for Jewish Home but for Rabbi Yosef's command not to)?
And you, Eli Yishai, you didn't understand until now why the non-Haredi public is fed up with paying 70% of its income in taxes to support yeshiva students some of whose heads aren't really so into studying Torah after all? You didn't think that the students who work under the table on the side and who are 'carried on the rolls' of yeshivas without ever being there weren't going to come back to bite us?
I know that's not a fair description of all of the yeshiva students or even a majority of them. Most of them - at least most of the ones with whom I come into contact - are very serious about their studies, but even one who is taking money from the State to support his studies and not studying is one too many and reflects poorly on those who are studying seriously.
And so - Eli Yishai, Naftali Bennett and the MK's of United Torah Judaism (who really do take their orders from their rabbis), can we get together and save our society before we end up with Tommy's plan?
Likud sources are saying that Prime Minister Netanyahu is willing to 'overpay' to bring Tzipi Livni into the coalition in the event that he cannot reach an agreement with Yair Lapid. Lapid apparently hasn't learned yet that politics is the art of the possible and that once the elections are over, you have to start to compromise. Netanyahu, meanwhile is scared out of his wits of being the most left-leaning person in his own coalition.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is prepared to make a substantial offer to
bring the Tzipi Livni Party into his coalition as a senior partner if
negotiations with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid do not bear fruit, senior Likud sources
said following talks with Livni's associates on Monday.
...
The talk of overpaying
Livni to enter the coalition despite her faction having only six MKs came after
Yesh Atid issued demands that Likud officials called unrealistic. Likud sources
said a likely scenario would be a 69-MK coalition with the Tzipi Livni Party,
Kadima, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, and United Torah Judaism. A Likud MK suggested that
"it might be better to have Livni on her knees than Lapid on a horse." The MK
said Lapid might speak more modestly and lower his price after "a year of
drought in the desert of the opposition." Channel 2 reported Monday night that
Netanyahu and his no. 2 on the joint Likud Yisrael Beytenu list Avigdor Liberman
had maintained a direct connection with Livni since the January 22 election. The
report said Netanyahu's recent statements on diplomatic issues were aimed at
enticing Livni into the coalition.
An official response by Livni's
spokeswoman called the report "rumors and political spin" and said there were
direct connections since the election with leaders of many parties, not just
Netanyahu. Livni's associates expressed concern that Netanyahu might have leaked
the report in order to use Livni to lower the price of Lapid.
"For Tzipi,
what matters is the essence of whether she will be given true freedom to advance
the diplomatic process," a source close to her said.
"She has one issue, unlike
Lapid who has many, but she won't join the government unless she deems
Netanyahu's intentions on the peace process to be truly genuine. It's too soon
to say concretely that Netanyahu is more serious than before. Maytbe it's just
camouflage and pyrotechnics."
Wouldn't it be funny if Netanyahu ended up with a coalition consisting of Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home, Shas and United Torah Judaism? That would be 61 MK's....
Now, the horse trading starts: Likud-Lapid-Bennett and... Livni?
Jonathan Tobin sees a coalition of Likud, Yesh Atid (Lapid), Jewish Home (Naftali Bennett). That would be 61 already. He also sees Tzipi Livni going in. The Haredi parties would be left outside in this scenario.
Though many, especially in the foreign press, tended to lump Lapid in
with Labor as part of a center-left faction, his positions on security
and defense issues are quite compatible with those of Netanyahu. His
vote cannot be interpreted as a pro-peace protest against Netanyahu.
Rather, it is very much in a long tradition of Israeli parties that
capitalized on secular resentment against the power of the
ultra-Orthodox parties. He ought to be able to exact a high price from
Netanyahu, but there’s little doubt the prime minister will be happy to
pay it since Lapid might be easier to deal with than the political
extortionists at Shas and United Torah Judaism that are always available
to sell their votes to the highest bidders.
As for Bennett, his total fell short of his highest poll numbers. But
he is still in a very strong position. His 12 seats make him an
essential part of any coalition led by Netanyahu. He will act as a brake
on any possible lurch to the left on the peace process, but given the
lack of interest on the part of the Palestinian Authority in returning
to negotiations, its doubtful that he has much to worry about. Moreover,
his religious Zionist party won’t have any trouble supporting a change
in the draft laws to ensure more Haredim serve in the army.
Another potential member of the next government would be Tzipi Livni.
Her new Hatnua Party won approximately seven seats. There’s no love
lost between Livni and Netanyahu, but if she refuses to join a coalition
that already included Lapid, she would be effectively marginalized.
That’s something Livni probably wouldn’t be able to stand. Of all the
party leaders, she is the one left with the toughest choice.
One party that is unlikely to join Netanyahu would be Labor, which
finished a disappointing third. Labor leader Shelly Yacimovich knows
that the only hope to build her party back to its position as one of
Israel’s two biggest is by leading the opposition in the next Knesset.
She will stand aside this time and hold onto the not-unreasonable hope
that she will do far better the next time.
There will be those who will portray these numbers as something of a
rebuke to Netanyahu, and there is something to that. But as I wrote a
couple of weeks ago, his biggest problem in this vote was that he
couldn’t lose. Since the lack of a serious alternative to him made his
re-election a certainty, voters were free to support smaller parties
rather than the Likud and therefore register their preference for the
kind of coalition he would lead. Though Netanyahu would have liked to
have a bigger total for Likud, he can’t be disappointed with the bottom
line of this vote: he remains prime minister and will be able to pick
and choose his coalition partners. The next government will be fractious
and difficult to manage but for all of his problems, Netanyahu remains
the only possible choice to be prime minister for the foreseeable
future.
Maybe I should not have been so quick to dismiss Limor Livnat. Maybe she was right after all.
You will recall that in the Liveblog, I dismissed Livnat's claim that the Likud will get two more seats as wishful thinking. But as of 2:00 am, with about 57% of the actual votes counted, the Likud has risen to 33 seats. Jewish Home has dropped to 11.
That's a net gain of one for the Right. But what's even more shocking is where the other two seats came from that brought it from 61 to 64. As of 2:00 am, United Torah Judaism, the party of the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox Jews, is up to 8 seats.
Labor has dropped to 16 and Meretz has dropped to 5.
If these results hold up, Netanyahu does have an option for a coalition without Lapid, without Livni and without Shelly.
And the radio made a point of letting us know this evening that while Lapid may have been Netanyahu's first call, Netanyahu also spoke to two of Shas' leadership triumvirate (Eli Yishai and Aryeh Deri) and that Netanyahu will be meeting with Yishai on Thursday. And Netanyahu also spoke to UTJ's Yaakov Litzman. And Yishai assured Shas' voters this evening that Shas will be part of any coalition.
Of course, it could still end up being Lapid rather than Bennett with Shas and UTJ if Lapid would agree to that. Lapid can really sit on either side of the aisle, and his concerns are mostly domestic.
Hmmm.
UPDATE 2:42 AM
I should add that this might not hold up.
Kadima is now over the minimum and if that holds (it's expected to) they will get two seats.
One of the Arab parties is below the threshold right now but is expected to make it above the threshold and those seats will come at someone's expense. Whose expense remains to be seen.
Deri has lived through everything and learned nothing
If any of you are thinking of wasting your votes on the Shas party in the upcoming election, please think again. Former leader Aryeh Deri has returned to the party leadership, and he's still stuck in the '90's. He still believes that a 'long-term deal' with the 'Palestinians' is possible.
Support
for an interim agreement in which Israel would withdraw from parts of the West
Bank without evacuating settlements has come in the past from politicians on the
Center-Left, including Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Kadima leader Shaul
Mofaz, but never from the leader of a party that for many years was considered
right-wing.
“Shas is not Right or Left,” Deri said. “We ask rabbis what to
do and we go by what they say. We aren’t nationalist. We believe Israel is ours
because God gave it to us. I don’t believe I am an occupier. Our rabbis will
decide what is best to do to avoid blood being spilled.”
When asked if
Shas mentor Rabbi Ovadia Yosef regretted having the party abstain from voting on
the Oslo Accords in 1993, Deri said Yosef has written that the accord did not
prove itself and led to terrorist attacks. He said Yosef currently does not
believe there is a partner on the Palestinian side for negotiations.
“The
rabbi believes we should not pursue a final-status agreement,” Deri said. “He is in favor of
pursuing longterm interim agreements as long as they do not endanger Israelis.
That would be the best. Then we can get to see how they turn out. The advantage
of long-term interim agreements is that they can be stopped and changed if they
don’t work.”
Shas was seen as more moderate when it was led by Deri and
abstained on the Oslo Accord vote. When he was succeeded by Eli Yishai, the
party moved to the Right.
Until now it was unclear whether the party
would moderate its message on diplomatic issues with Deri’s return, but he made
clear that it would.
And you wondered why Shas weakened in Thursday's poll results.... This will probably weaken them even more.
Having been indicted for breach of trust and fraud,Yisrael Beiteinu's Avigdor Lieberman has resigned as Foreign Minister, but remains a Knesset member. Ironically, there is talk here that Prime Minister Netanyahu may make Lieberman's recently deposed deputy, Danny Ayalon, the Foreign Minister.
Moments
after he handed in his letter of resignation, the foreign minister
asserted that his break will be short. "I am leaving temporarily" he
said, after what he described as four very interesting years in the
Foreign Ministry.
Liberman said that he was not concerned about
the trial ahead of him and hoped the process would be quick. He also
said that he wants a trial rather than a plea bargain, making it very
unlikely that the legal process will be complete by the time the
government is formed in March.
He added
that every move he had made was for the good of the public and the break
would give him time to focus on elections. "Israel needs a strong prime
minister with a clear majority," rather than having to rely on sliver
parties, he stated.
The foreign minister confirmed on Saturday
night that he had not resigned from the Knesset or as chairman of
Yisrael Beytenu, and was still running in the election with the hope of
getting a top ministerial position in the next government, assuming
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu forms the next coalition.
Likud
officials said that they wont hide Liberman in the campaign and that he
will play a central role. They added that they appreciated his
resignation because it enables the election to return to key diplomatic
and security issues rather than focusing on Liberman.
Liberman
announced Friday that he would be stepping down, hours after Meretz
filed a petition asking the High Court of Justice to order his
resignation.
In a statement published by his office, Liberman
said his legal counsel advised him he did not have to resign.
Nonetheless, he said he would do so in order to fight the charges
against him, thereby enabling him to serve in the next government if
exonerated. Liberman has denied all wrongdoing and called for expedited
legal proceedings.
...
A source in the Prime Minister’s Office said
Netanyahu would retain the title of foreign minister until the next
government is formed, dispelling rumors that a Likud minister such as
Vice Premier Silvan Shalom or Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor would be
given the post.
According to Israeli constitutional processes, when a minister resigns, his deputy automatically resigns with him.
Netanyahu
and Liberman both want Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon to remain
in his post, so Netanyahu is expected to ask the Knesset to approve
Ayalon’s reappointment.
Liberman’s decision follows Weinstein’s
surprise announcement on Thursday that he will charge the foreign
minister not only with breach of trust, but also with fraud, in a 2008
case involving obstruction of justice by former ambassador to Belarus
Ze’ev Ben- Aryeh.
It was widely predicted that Liberman would be
charged with breach of trust for allegedly not revealing that Ben- Aryeh
leaked information to him regarding a separate investigation against
him when he visited the ambassador in Belarus in 2008. But the charge
that by allegedly helping Ben-Aryeh advance to two additional positions
in the Foreign Ministry as “payment” for Ben-Aryeh’s leaking classified
information to Liberman, he had committed fraud, came as a surprise.
At
the same time, Weinstein decided to close the “main” case against
Liberman, regarding wider and more serious allegations of
money-laundering millions of dollars, fraud and other allegations from
2001 to 2008.
If Lieberman insists on going to trial, he will not be finished in time to be appointed to a ministerial position in the next Knesset. If he cops a plea, he will not get the exoneration he seeks.
If the public gets its wishes, the next government will be formed by Likud-Beiteinu, Labor and Jewish Home. Labor claims they won't go into a government with someone under indictment (kind of ironic, given that Labor was by far the most corrupt party until Ehud K. Olmert came along). If that holds, look for Labor's place in the next government to be taken by the Haredi parties. In fact, even if it doesn't hold, I cannot see Labor going into the government because government that includes both the Likud and Jewish Home will not sufficiently support the 'peace process' for Labor's tastes.
A mentch tracht un Got Maft (people think and God does)....
This makes you wonder why Prime Minister Netanyahu is kissing up to Kadima chairman Shaul Mofaz. But then, I was wondering that already (and think I know the answer).
Likud 30 Labor 16 Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid) 15 Yisrael Beiteinu 12 Shas 7 National Union 7 Meretz 6 Kadima 5 United Torah Judaism 5 Jewish Home 4 Chadash 4
Arabs 10
A few points: Look for Likud to try to absorb Kadima so as to further dilute Moshe Feiglin's strength in the party. That becomes more and more likely as Kadima continues to founder in the polls.
Ehud Barak's Atzmaut party is wiped out. Look for Netanyahu to try to coop Barak into Likud and guarantee him a high position on the Knesset slate.
By traditional right-left breakdowns, the Right has 65 seats here (Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, National Union, United Torah Judaism and Jewish Home). But it is far more likely that Netanyahu will take Yesh Atid and Kadima into the coalition and that he will leave out National Union. If what's currently talked about as 'draft reform' goes through, Shas and United Torah Judaism are unlikely to go into any coalition headed by Netanyahu. Ever.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com