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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Right bloc rises to 64 as real results come in

Maybe I should not have been so quick to dismiss Limor Livnat. Maybe she was right after all.

You will recall that in the Liveblog, I dismissed Livnat's claim that the Likud will get two more seats as wishful thinking. But as of 2:00 am, with about 57% of the actual votes counted, the Likud has risen to 33 seats. Jewish Home has dropped to 11.

That's a net gain of one for the Right. But what's even more shocking is where the other two seats came from that brought it from 61 to 64. As of 2:00 am, United Torah Judaism, the party of the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox Jews, is up to 8 seats.

Labor has dropped to 16 and Meretz has dropped to 5.

If these results hold up, Netanyahu does have an option for a coalition without Lapid, without Livni and without Shelly.

And the radio made a point of letting us know this evening that while Lapid may have been Netanyahu's first call, Netanyahu also spoke to two of Shas' leadership triumvirate (Eli Yishai and Aryeh Deri) and that Netanyahu will be meeting with Yishai on Thursday. And Netanyahu also spoke to UTJ's Yaakov Litzman. And Yishai assured Shas' voters this evening that Shas will be part of any coalition.

Of course, it could still end up being Lapid rather than Bennett with Shas and UTJ if Lapid would agree to that. Lapid can really sit on either side of the aisle, and his concerns are mostly domestic.

Hmmm.

UPDATE 2:42 AM

I should add that this might not hold up.

Kadima is now over the minimum and if that holds (it's expected to) they will get two seats.

One of the Arab parties is below the threshold right now but is expected to make it above the threshold  and those seats will come at someone's expense. Whose expense remains to be seen.

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3 Comments:

At 4:32 AM, Blogger HaDaR said...

Don't make the mistake of counting the votes of United Torah Judaism with the right...
Don't forget that in 2005 they ENTERED in Sharon's Government, and their rabbis made the deportation of the Jews from Gaza possible FORBIDDING people from taking part in demonstration against the deportation because of "modesty".
Naval birshuth ha Torah comes to mind.

 
At 7:03 AM, Blogger HaDaR said...

The REAL RESULTS will be in ONLY ON THURSDAY, that is with the ARMY votes.
Soldiers have voted with large majorities for the right in the last 15 years.
So, the 60-60 result can still change.
Hopefully Kadima will be out and Otzmah le-Israel in.

 
At 7:19 AM, Blogger NormanF said...

Channel 2 projects both blocs resulting in a hung Knesset.

In reality, Israel's left-wing Jewish Zionist parties are not going to enter into a coalition with the Arabs. Both the Likud and the Left can court Shas, United Torah Judaism and Bayit Yehudi to assemble a coalition. The Likud has the inside track since at 31 seats, its still twice as large as all the other parties in the back of the pack.

And Yachimovich, Lapid and Livni can barely sit in the same room together - if they couldn't do it during the election campaign, there's little reason for such feuding egos to set aside their differences and do it now.

Heh

 

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