Israelis to Obama: 'The hell you'll tell us whom to vote for'
President Hussein Obama's efforts to influence Israel's upcoming election may be backfiring. This is Anshel Pfeffer, one of Haaretz's more Leftist writers.
Tonight's @haaretzcom poll is the worst for Labor in a long while: Leaves Herzog with no option for a coalition. Ensures Netanyahu 4th term.
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) February 2, 2015
Haaretz - for those who have forgotten - is Israel's Hebrew 'Palestinian' daily, probably the most Leftist rag among Israel's better known Leftist rags. (By the way, only about 5% of Israelis read Haaretz - they have a much wider audience among the elites in the US and Europe).
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud would win 25 seats and the Labor Camp would secure only 23 if elections were held today, a new poll conducted by Haaretz-Dialog found on Monday.
The poll, which was conducted under the supervision
of Professor Camil Fuchs with a representative sample of 514
respondents, showed Netanyahu gaining three more seats than what his
party was predicted to win in the last poll conducted in January. The
margin of error in the poll was 4.2 percent.
Naftali Bennett's Habayit Hayehudi weakened in this poll to receive 14 seats, compared to 16 in the last survey.
The Joint List (Hadash and Arab parties) strengthened, predicted to win
12 seats, while Yesh Atid weakened from 12 to nine seats.
Kulanu and United Torah Judaism were both slated
for eight seats, while Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas were predicted to
receive six seats. Respondents gave Meretz five seats and Yachad was
predicted to get four.
That would put the Right at 25+14+8+6+6+4 = 63, the Left at 23+9+5 = 37, the Arabs (who have never been in any coalition at 12 and Kulanu (which really could go either way) at 8.
Knesset Coalition Chairman MK Yariv Levin (Likud) on Saturday
indicated in a TV interview that the coalition may be in for a shake-up
in the near future - and that "childish" Finance Minister Yair Lapid
(Yesh Atid) does not have high chances of being invited back in.
"We must weigh the possibility of a change in the coalition composition through the addition of the haredi parties," Levin told Channel 10. "It might be that there's no choice but to leave Lapid out."
Lapid has long been at odds with the hareidi parties of Shas and
United Torah Judaism (UTJ), particularly through his push for the
Enlistment Law requiring a mandatory hareidi IDF draft, and recently
through his 0% VAT bill that would give those who serve in the IDF
benefits buying their first home.
The latter bill has received such harsh criticism that one hareidi MK from UTJ recently threatened "apartheid" Israel with an "Arab rebellion" over the bill.
Levin also slammed Lapid for his statements during Operation
Protective Edge in Gaza; not long after Israel reached a ceasefire with
the terrorist group Hamas, Lapid called for a return to the "diplomatic"
process, urging a return to peace talks.
"If such not serious, irresponsible and even childish behavior
continues, then we certainly must consider the possibility of a change
in the composition (of the coalition)," said Levin, subtly targeting
Lapid.
The Coalition Chairman added that because of the need to consider a
change, he is not worried about Lapid's threats last Wednesday to quit the coalition if taxes are raised following Operation Protective Edge.
This would really be rich if it happened.... But don't hold your breath waiting for it to happen.
Give Yair Lapid credit. He managed to do what no one else has managed to do. He managed to get together the three rabbinic councils of the Israeli Haredi world - the Lithuanian Degel HaTorah, the Hassidic Agudath Yisrael, and the Sephardic Shas - all in the same room to work together to defeat the new law intended to draft Haredim into the IDF.
The new conscription bill
being drafted in the government Shaked committee is slated to be a
historic move on the issue of drafting the ultra-Orthodox. But the
controversy surrounding the bill has already caused history to be made:
on Monday, the leading rabbis of the three ultra-Orthodox factions --
Shas, the hassidic Agudat Yisrael and the Lithuanian Degel Hatorah --
gathered for the first time to discuss how to defeat the new law.
Senior rabbis attended the historic event,
including Rabbi Aharon Leib Shteinman, leader of the Lithuanian sect;
Shas Council of Torah Sages member Rabbi Shalom Cohen; and senior
hassidic leaders. Rabbi Shmuel Auerbach, the extremist leader of the
Lithuanian-Jerusalem stream, who is in a dispute with rivals from
centrist factions, also took part in the meeting. The rabbis said they
planned to hold a mass prayer rally the Sunday after next and decided to
"immediately cancel the [government] committee's decision to force
military service."
Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to attend the demonstration.
"This is a bad law, never before seen," said MK Moshe Gafni (United Torah Judaism.)
Meanwhile, the Knesset committee for equating
the military burden was slated to vote on Tuesday that the new draft law
applied only to yeshiva students who studied in ultra-Orthodox
institutions, meaning that more ultra-Orthodox students will need to
enlist to meet the law's draft targets.
Divide and conquer? Bennett suggests to UTJ to join government without Shas, UTJ blows him off
In a bid to separate United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas, Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett has suggested to UTJ that they join the coalition alone, according to the Haredi website Kikar Shabbat (link in Hebrew). MK Rabbi Yaakov Litzman (above) was offered to keep his position as deputy Health Minister (in a ministry where there is no minister - that's how UTJ always takes portfolios. But UTJ turned it down.
According to Kikar Shabbat, Bennett's motivation is an effort to change his party's image as an enemy of the Torah world. Jewish Home is also looking for a Haredi public relations adviser to assist in an approach to the Haredi community. Bennett also made a video for the Haredi community on Wednesday night.
Let's go to the videotape (sorry, Hebrew only).
Why is Bennett doing this? Recall that UTJ got 17% of the vote in Judea and Samaria, and Shas got another 10%. While I would bet that much of that vote came from the Haredi cities right along the 'green line' (Kiryat Sefer and Beitar), it's likely that there are also a lot of people in those towns who voted for Bennett, and he's afraid that if he pulls all their sons out of the yeshivas, they won't vote for him again.
In the meantime, UTJ Knesset Member Rabbi Meir Porush has challenged Bennett to disclose his understandings with Yair Lapid (link in Hebrew), with respect to maintenance of the religious status quo. Porush argues that much of the national religious public would also like to know what understandings have been reached by Bennett and Lapid, particularly with respect to issues like public transportation on the Sabbath (there currently is none within any city that had a Jewish majority in 1948) and (although this isn't mentioned in the article) civil marriages (currently, the only marriages legally performed in Israel are religious marriages).
Porush is hitting a very sensitive point here. While the Haredi community would flee the organized Rabbinate and run its own sifrei yuchsin (genealogy books) in a second, the national religious community places religious significance on the state itself, and not just on the land. Changes in which the organized Rabbinate was rendered meaningless as an institution would not go over well with the national religious public.
Here we go: Haredi UTJ party proposes law to disband Knesset
There isn't a coalition yet and already someone wants new elections. United Torah Judaism MK Uri Maklev has introduced a bill in the Knesset calling to disband the Knesset and go to new elections. The bill has been co-sponsored by his entire seven-member faction. The bill states that the reason for its introduction is that "upon the opening of coalition negotiations, Jewish Home and Yesh Atid announced that they were boycotting the Haredi parties" (link in Hebrew).
The article states that Maklev's argument is that Netanyahu is being forced to establish a coalition he doesn't want, that Bennett and Lapid are inexperienced (which is true) and that they are acting out of hatred (which is also probably true) and in disregard of minority rights.
"This government will act as a government within a government and will not be able to deal with the burning issues on the agenda... and will endanger the country's economic and national security future...."
You might view this bill as a protest bill, but if it's brought to a vote and fails, no similar bill can be reintroduced for six months.
Israel HaYom, the Adelson-owned free daily newspaper that is close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, is reporting that the Prime Minister may be about to pull a rabbit out of his hat in the coalition negotiations. The rabbit is named Shelly Yacimovich.
But not everyone shares these
assessments. The haredi newspaper "Mishpacha" reported on Monday that
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered his coalition negotiating
team to make huge efforts to bring Labor's Shelly Yachimovich into his
coalition. "Hamishpacha" reported that Netanyahu told Yachimovich that
she had until the end of this week to present her positions for entering
the government, and that the Labor party chairwoman is apparently
drawing up such a document. Should Yechimovich enter the government,
Netanyahu could form a government with Labor [15], the haredi parties
[18], Tzippi Livni's Hatnuah [6], Kadima [2] as well as the
Likud-Yisrael Beytenu list [31], to give him 72 Knesset seats. With
that, Netanyahu could leave both Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi out of
the government.
According to the paper, Netanyahu told the three heads
of the Shas party at a meeting on Sunday that "I am meeting with you for
one purpose, and that is to get your help in getting Yechimovich into
the coalition."
Nevertheless, Netanyahu and Habayit Hayehudi
Chairman Naftali Bennett met on Sunday amid inter-party tensions that
have mired the most recent coalition negotiations. Both the prime
minister and the Habayit Hayehudi chairman, who have often been
described as at odds for personal and political reasons, described the
meeting as "pleasant and practical."
Bennett has requested the Finance Ministry
portfolio, while Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid will likely insist on
becoming the next foreign minister.
Habayit Hayehudi did not disclose the details of the meeting.
Netanyahu has a pact with Avigdor Lieberman that he will hold the Foreign Ministry for the Yisrael Beiteinu chairman until the latter's legal problems are resolved. Will he give the ministry to Lapid anyway? Not if he has another alternative.
In the meantime, the Haredi daily Yated Neeman (Hebrew edition) reports in Tuesday's editions on a threat by the Degel HaTorah faction of United Torah Judaism to expose where the billions really go if the yeshivas are harmed by the new government. They are in a position to make a credible threat like that. Degel MK Moshe Gafni has been the chair of the Knesset Finance Committee for some time now. It is widely believed that among those billions are some of the smaller 'outposts' in Judea and Samaria. However, the billions also likely include several pet projects of the Left. After all, 'socialism' is still not a dirty word in this country.
So watch Netanyahu pull a rabbit out of his hat, but remember that Trix are for kids... and sometimes for silly rabbits.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is said to be furious with Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett for what he sees as a conspiracy to prevent the Haredi parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) from joining a Likud-led coalition.
Sources who attended Netanyahu’s meeting with
Likud ministers said he spoke of Lapid and Bennett with contempt, complaining
that “their strategy is not to reach solutions on key issues, only to push out
the haredi parties.”
Ministers quoted Netanyahu as saying that Lapid and
Bennett cared only about advancing themselves politically rather than the good
of the country.
Mocking Lapid’s plan for equalizing the burden of IDF
service, Netanyahu said that “it will neither bring equality nor ease anyone’s
burden.”
Sources close to the prime minister went further, alleging that
Lapid and Bennett were aiming to break the 36-yearold bond between Likud and the
haredi parties, so that following the next election, they will not recommend
that Netanyahu form the government.
So far, at least, the Haredi parties have shown much more willingness to compromise than have Bennett and Lapid. JPost called this story a 'ploy' on Sunday, but the way it's being reported in the Haredi papers on Monday, it's for real.
A UTJ
official told the Post that the party was considering supporting a raft of
measures such as a settlement freeze, the evacuation of unauthorized settlement
outposts and the reopening of peace negotiations with the
Palestinians.
Such a move, he said, would allow the prime minister to
form a coalition with left leaning parties including The Tzipi Livni Party and
even Meretz, and leave Bayit Yehudi outside of the government.
The source
noted that the upcoming visit of US President Barak Obama would likely bring new
pressure from the White House to make concessions to the Palestinians, something
that his party is now considering supporting.
The UTJ official said that
the preservation of military service exemptions for haredi yeshiva students was
the single most important issue on the party’s agenda and that UTJ would be
willing to compromise on other issues in order to maintain the status quo on
haredi enlistment.
“The haredi public thinks that Bennett has gone to war
against them,” the UTJ official said. “We want to remind him that Netanyahu can
build a coalition without Bayit Yehudi and remind the national religious
community that Bennett ran a campaign on strengthening the national bloc and the
settlements, not on forming agreements with Yesh Atid.”
According to the
Council of Jewish Communities of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip, 17% of
voters in their region gave their support to the United Torah Judaism, as
opposed to Shas, which garnered only 10% of their vote.
Yes, but if you broke down those numbers by community, you would discover that there is likely just one town outside the security fence route (Emanuel) where there was significant support for UTJ. The two big Haredi cities (Kiryat Sefer and Beitar - mentioned later in the article) are close to the 'green line' and are part of the 'settlement blocs.' They would not be affected.
And in fact, the reports in the Haredi papers go even further, saying that the party will disclose to the public how much it really costs to protect each individual hill in Samaria. They're in a position to do it. UTJ never takes a ministry but they have chaired the Knesset Finance Committee for as long as I can remember.
Mrs. Carl calls this a 'pact with the devil' and it might well be. But I don't see the Haredi parties having any other leverage to maintain what they regard as their most important interest, which is to keep the yeshiva boys out of the army. Note that they're not supporting a 'Palestinian state' and I doubt they would without awfully solid security.
And yes, this is designed to put pressure on Naftali Bennett.... Back to the first link....
Channel 2 reported that Netanyahu
intended to build a coalition with the 57 MKs of Likud Beytenu, Shas, UTJ, The
Tzipi Livni Party and Kadima, and then give Bennett a choice between joining the
coalition without Lapid or initiating an election in which the Left could come
to power.
Livni denied a Channel 10 report that she had accepted the
justice portfolio.
I understand Lapid, but Bennett seems to forget that most of his mandates come from national religious revenants and not from the secular population. At least one 'settlement leader' agrees with me.
One settler leader told Yishai,
“Bennett is making a mistake if he is seeking a momentary deal with Lapid rather
than a stable bond with Shas.”
Yishai warned the settler leaders that “if
there will be a diplomatic process, Lapid will throw Bennett out of the
government.
We [in Shas], however, are not a spare tire for the
Left.”
Sources close to Bennett denied that his party sought a coalition
without haredim.
Eli Yishai's protests notwithstanding (recall that during the elections, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, Shas' spiritual guide, blasted Jewish Home as a party of goyim), my bet is on the 57 MK scenario and Bennett being presented with an ultimatum. He and Lapid have both gone too far. That's fine with Netanyahu. Sara doesn't like Bennett anyway.
Yair Lapid may have spoken very nicely to that group of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews that I showed you right after the election. But deep down, he's still Tommy's son. And to understand Yair Lapid's real positions, you have to know a little bit about his father, Tommy. This is from a post I did several years ago.
Not everyone has been pleased with the new olim (immigrants). In July
2002, nearly 400 American immigrants arrived in Israel at the height of
the 'Palestinian' war against the Jews. What could be more inspiring to a
country under siege, and in the throes of a long-term recession, than
400 Jews choosing voluntarily to plight their troth to Israel’s future?
These immigrants were not fleeing for their lives, but rather choosing
to enter a war zone. Most of them left behind secure jobs to come to a
country with unemployment at over 10% and rising.
Not
surprisingly, their arrival occasioned a great deal of fanfare. But a
few days before their plane touched down, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
published an article on Beit Shemesh, the planned destination of many
of the immigrants. In that article, then-Shinui leader Tommy Lapid
complained that North American aliyah is overwhelmingly religious. He
added for good measure, "Quite frankly Israel could do without
[religious North American Jews]." (Shinui was an anti-religious Israeli
political party).
Lapid subsequently clarified that he did not
mean to single out religious North American immigrants. In his opinion,
Israel could do without charedi (ultra-Orthodox) immigrants wherever
they come from; indeed it could do without the charedim that were
already here.
Yair seems to feel the same way. He tells Haredim that they've won enough that they can relax their guard and not worry about being assimilated, rails at how much the country spends on religious education, and yet... (Hat Tip: Shy Guy).
Lapid declared that his political agenda includes making the Reform and
Conservative movements – both popular in the United States – equal to
orthodox Judaism in terms of state support.
State support? As in money? So that's the agenda - take the money from the Haredi yeshivos and build reform and conservative temples all over the country?
Let's go to the videotape. More after the video.
“I want to do everything in my power to ensure the equality between
all movements of Judaism in the state of Israel, Orthodox, Conservative,
or Reform,” he declared. “In conversions, in budgets, in the eyes of
the law. No one can claim ownership over the Jewish God.”
“Small, old, petty politics cannot determine something that is eternal as is the Jewish identity, this is just wrong,” he added.
There are other things that concern Lapid.
He also spoke of his determination to negotiate with the Palestinian
Authority for the creation of an Arab state in Judea and Samaria, a
point that he has previously stated is a key condition to his
partnership in any coalition.
Failure to separate from the Arab population of Judea and Samaria
(Shomron) would mean that Israel ceases to be a Jewish state, he argued.
You will note also that Lapid credits the leaders of organizations who have presided over an intermarriage rate in excess of 50% for 'saving the Jewish identity.' SAVING WHAT????
All of which made me wonder about... Naftali Bennett.
Bennett leads a party that until recently was known as the National Religious Party. That party, now known as Jewish Home, is said to have a pact with Lapid that one will not go into the government without the other. In fact, a short while ago, a free newspaper was delivered to my house in which Shas leader Eli Yishai complains that the pact between Jewish Home and Lapid's Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party is 'stronger than he thought.' Really?
The National Religious Party - the group that sees the State of Israel in religious terms - is going to be a part of overseeing the dismantling of the Chief Rabbinate? The National Religious Party, which for 65 years symbolized the role of Orthodox Judaism in the State is now going to vote for funding for conservative and reform temples? And you wonder why Rabbi Ovadia Yosef had such nasty words for Jewish Home during the election (and yes, I heard people say that they would have voted for Jewish Home but for Rabbi Yosef's command not to)?
And you, Eli Yishai, you didn't understand until now why the non-Haredi public is fed up with paying 70% of its income in taxes to support yeshiva students some of whose heads aren't really so into studying Torah after all? You didn't think that the students who work under the table on the side and who are 'carried on the rolls' of yeshivas without ever being there weren't going to come back to bite us?
I know that's not a fair description of all of the yeshiva students or even a majority of them. Most of them - at least most of the ones with whom I come into contact - are very serious about their studies, but even one who is taking money from the State to support his studies and not studying is one too many and reflects poorly on those who are studying seriously.
And so - Eli Yishai, Naftali Bennett and the MK's of United Torah Judaism (who really do take their orders from their rabbis), can we get together and save our society before we end up with Tommy's plan?
Likud sources are saying that Prime Minister Netanyahu is willing to 'overpay' to bring Tzipi Livni into the coalition in the event that he cannot reach an agreement with Yair Lapid. Lapid apparently hasn't learned yet that politics is the art of the possible and that once the elections are over, you have to start to compromise. Netanyahu, meanwhile is scared out of his wits of being the most left-leaning person in his own coalition.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is prepared to make a substantial offer to
bring the Tzipi Livni Party into his coalition as a senior partner if
negotiations with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid do not bear fruit, senior Likud sources
said following talks with Livni's associates on Monday.
...
The talk of overpaying
Livni to enter the coalition despite her faction having only six MKs came after
Yesh Atid issued demands that Likud officials called unrealistic. Likud sources
said a likely scenario would be a 69-MK coalition with the Tzipi Livni Party,
Kadima, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, and United Torah Judaism. A Likud MK suggested that
"it might be better to have Livni on her knees than Lapid on a horse." The MK
said Lapid might speak more modestly and lower his price after "a year of
drought in the desert of the opposition." Channel 2 reported Monday night that
Netanyahu and his no. 2 on the joint Likud Yisrael Beytenu list Avigdor Liberman
had maintained a direct connection with Livni since the January 22 election. The
report said Netanyahu's recent statements on diplomatic issues were aimed at
enticing Livni into the coalition.
An official response by Livni's
spokeswoman called the report "rumors and political spin" and said there were
direct connections since the election with leaders of many parties, not just
Netanyahu. Livni's associates expressed concern that Netanyahu might have leaked
the report in order to use Livni to lower the price of Lapid.
"For Tzipi,
what matters is the essence of whether she will be given true freedom to advance
the diplomatic process," a source close to her said.
"She has one issue, unlike
Lapid who has many, but she won't join the government unless she deems
Netanyahu's intentions on the peace process to be truly genuine. It's too soon
to say concretely that Netanyahu is more serious than before. Maytbe it's just
camouflage and pyrotechnics."
Wouldn't it be funny if Netanyahu ended up with a coalition consisting of Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home, Shas and United Torah Judaism? That would be 61 MK's....
Now, the horse trading starts: Likud-Lapid-Bennett and... Livni?
Jonathan Tobin sees a coalition of Likud, Yesh Atid (Lapid), Jewish Home (Naftali Bennett). That would be 61 already. He also sees Tzipi Livni going in. The Haredi parties would be left outside in this scenario.
Though many, especially in the foreign press, tended to lump Lapid in
with Labor as part of a center-left faction, his positions on security
and defense issues are quite compatible with those of Netanyahu. His
vote cannot be interpreted as a pro-peace protest against Netanyahu.
Rather, it is very much in a long tradition of Israeli parties that
capitalized on secular resentment against the power of the
ultra-Orthodox parties. He ought to be able to exact a high price from
Netanyahu, but there’s little doubt the prime minister will be happy to
pay it since Lapid might be easier to deal with than the political
extortionists at Shas and United Torah Judaism that are always available
to sell their votes to the highest bidders.
As for Bennett, his total fell short of his highest poll numbers. But
he is still in a very strong position. His 12 seats make him an
essential part of any coalition led by Netanyahu. He will act as a brake
on any possible lurch to the left on the peace process, but given the
lack of interest on the part of the Palestinian Authority in returning
to negotiations, its doubtful that he has much to worry about. Moreover,
his religious Zionist party won’t have any trouble supporting a change
in the draft laws to ensure more Haredim serve in the army.
Another potential member of the next government would be Tzipi Livni.
Her new Hatnua Party won approximately seven seats. There’s no love
lost between Livni and Netanyahu, but if she refuses to join a coalition
that already included Lapid, she would be effectively marginalized.
That’s something Livni probably wouldn’t be able to stand. Of all the
party leaders, she is the one left with the toughest choice.
One party that is unlikely to join Netanyahu would be Labor, which
finished a disappointing third. Labor leader Shelly Yacimovich knows
that the only hope to build her party back to its position as one of
Israel’s two biggest is by leading the opposition in the next Knesset.
She will stand aside this time and hold onto the not-unreasonable hope
that she will do far better the next time.
There will be those who will portray these numbers as something of a
rebuke to Netanyahu, and there is something to that. But as I wrote a
couple of weeks ago, his biggest problem in this vote was that he
couldn’t lose. Since the lack of a serious alternative to him made his
re-election a certainty, voters were free to support smaller parties
rather than the Likud and therefore register their preference for the
kind of coalition he would lead. Though Netanyahu would have liked to
have a bigger total for Likud, he can’t be disappointed with the bottom
line of this vote: he remains prime minister and will be able to pick
and choose his coalition partners. The next government will be fractious
and difficult to manage but for all of his problems, Netanyahu remains
the only possible choice to be prime minister for the foreseeable
future.
Maybe I should not have been so quick to dismiss Limor Livnat. Maybe she was right after all.
You will recall that in the Liveblog, I dismissed Livnat's claim that the Likud will get two more seats as wishful thinking. But as of 2:00 am, with about 57% of the actual votes counted, the Likud has risen to 33 seats. Jewish Home has dropped to 11.
That's a net gain of one for the Right. But what's even more shocking is where the other two seats came from that brought it from 61 to 64. As of 2:00 am, United Torah Judaism, the party of the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox Jews, is up to 8 seats.
Labor has dropped to 16 and Meretz has dropped to 5.
If these results hold up, Netanyahu does have an option for a coalition without Lapid, without Livni and without Shelly.
And the radio made a point of letting us know this evening that while Lapid may have been Netanyahu's first call, Netanyahu also spoke to two of Shas' leadership triumvirate (Eli Yishai and Aryeh Deri) and that Netanyahu will be meeting with Yishai on Thursday. And Netanyahu also spoke to UTJ's Yaakov Litzman. And Yishai assured Shas' voters this evening that Shas will be part of any coalition.
Of course, it could still end up being Lapid rather than Bennett with Shas and UTJ if Lapid would agree to that. Lapid can really sit on either side of the aisle, and his concerns are mostly domestic.
Hmmm.
UPDATE 2:42 AM
I should add that this might not hold up.
Kadima is now over the minimum and if that holds (it's expected to) they will get two seats.
One of the Arab parties is below the threshold right now but is expected to make it above the threshold and those seats will come at someone's expense. Whose expense remains to be seen.
The Haredi United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party has asked the central elections committee to disqualify an ad by the Kadima party, which claims that married yeshiva students receive NIS 3400 per month while soldiers receive NIS 352 per month.
UTJ chairman MK Yisrael Eichler, who filed the complaint, wrote that
the figure given for state funds provided to full-time yeshiva students
of NIS 3,400 was “patently false,” and that the purpose of the
advertisement was to “arouse hostility and confrontation with haredi
Jews.”
“This will cause hatred and even violence,” Eichler claimed.
There are currently approximately 45,000 full time yeshiva students who receive NIS 828 a month from the government.
Of those, approximately 10,000 also receive NIS 1,040 a month in income support.
Last week, the Dan and Egged bus companies both refused to post the campaign banners on their buses.
Egged said that it would not allow its buses to be used as a platform
for negative advertisements that would make passengers uncomfortable.
Kadima said in response to Dan and Egged’s decision that the
companies were coming out against IDF soldiers who bear the burden of
military service for the country, and whose bus travel represents “a
nice income for their owners.”
Kadima has taken Dan to court over the issue, but Egged eventually agreed to use the party’s advertisements.
This is wrong on a lot of levels. First, Kadima, in any event, is a party that according to the polls is unlikely to be in the next Knesset.
Second, the term avreich and its plural avreichim do not refer to all full-time yeshiva students, but only to married yeshiva students. I believe that married soldiers - even conscripts - are paid more than NIS 352 per month.
Third, the NIS 3400 figure, as Rabbi Eichler correctly points out, is a lie, and yes it's designed to incite hatred against Haredim.
But fourth, I would turn the whole thing around. I would argue that I would be happy to pay NIS 3400 per month to combat soldiers (not jobnikim) if the IDF becomes a volunteer army. The expense of paying the combat soldiers would be offset by the millions of shekels saved by not drafting people who really don't belong in anyone's army.
I've made the argument before for a volunteer army. So has Moshe Feiglin. And so has Haaretz.A volunteer army would likely do more to reduce hostility to Haredim than anything else. So why aren't the Haredi parties discussing it? Why isn't anyone else? (And yes, I have some ideas as to the answers to those questions, but not I'm posting them tonight).
Having been indicted for breach of trust and fraud,Yisrael Beiteinu's Avigdor Lieberman has resigned as Foreign Minister, but remains a Knesset member. Ironically, there is talk here that Prime Minister Netanyahu may make Lieberman's recently deposed deputy, Danny Ayalon, the Foreign Minister.
Moments
after he handed in his letter of resignation, the foreign minister
asserted that his break will be short. "I am leaving temporarily" he
said, after what he described as four very interesting years in the
Foreign Ministry.
Liberman said that he was not concerned about
the trial ahead of him and hoped the process would be quick. He also
said that he wants a trial rather than a plea bargain, making it very
unlikely that the legal process will be complete by the time the
government is formed in March.
He added
that every move he had made was for the good of the public and the break
would give him time to focus on elections. "Israel needs a strong prime
minister with a clear majority," rather than having to rely on sliver
parties, he stated.
The foreign minister confirmed on Saturday
night that he had not resigned from the Knesset or as chairman of
Yisrael Beytenu, and was still running in the election with the hope of
getting a top ministerial position in the next government, assuming
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu forms the next coalition.
Likud
officials said that they wont hide Liberman in the campaign and that he
will play a central role. They added that they appreciated his
resignation because it enables the election to return to key diplomatic
and security issues rather than focusing on Liberman.
Liberman
announced Friday that he would be stepping down, hours after Meretz
filed a petition asking the High Court of Justice to order his
resignation.
In a statement published by his office, Liberman
said his legal counsel advised him he did not have to resign.
Nonetheless, he said he would do so in order to fight the charges
against him, thereby enabling him to serve in the next government if
exonerated. Liberman has denied all wrongdoing and called for expedited
legal proceedings.
...
A source in the Prime Minister’s Office said
Netanyahu would retain the title of foreign minister until the next
government is formed, dispelling rumors that a Likud minister such as
Vice Premier Silvan Shalom or Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor would be
given the post.
According to Israeli constitutional processes, when a minister resigns, his deputy automatically resigns with him.
Netanyahu
and Liberman both want Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon to remain
in his post, so Netanyahu is expected to ask the Knesset to approve
Ayalon’s reappointment.
Liberman’s decision follows Weinstein’s
surprise announcement on Thursday that he will charge the foreign
minister not only with breach of trust, but also with fraud, in a 2008
case involving obstruction of justice by former ambassador to Belarus
Ze’ev Ben- Aryeh.
It was widely predicted that Liberman would be
charged with breach of trust for allegedly not revealing that Ben- Aryeh
leaked information to him regarding a separate investigation against
him when he visited the ambassador in Belarus in 2008. But the charge
that by allegedly helping Ben-Aryeh advance to two additional positions
in the Foreign Ministry as “payment” for Ben-Aryeh’s leaking classified
information to Liberman, he had committed fraud, came as a surprise.
At
the same time, Weinstein decided to close the “main” case against
Liberman, regarding wider and more serious allegations of
money-laundering millions of dollars, fraud and other allegations from
2001 to 2008.
If Lieberman insists on going to trial, he will not be finished in time to be appointed to a ministerial position in the next Knesset. If he cops a plea, he will not get the exoneration he seeks.
If the public gets its wishes, the next government will be formed by Likud-Beiteinu, Labor and Jewish Home. Labor claims they won't go into a government with someone under indictment (kind of ironic, given that Labor was by far the most corrupt party until Ehud K. Olmert came along). If that holds, look for Labor's place in the next government to be taken by the Haredi parties. In fact, even if it doesn't hold, I cannot see Labor going into the government because government that includes both the Likud and Jewish Home will not sufficiently support the 'peace process' for Labor's tastes.
A mentch tracht un Got Maft (people think and God does)....
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
