Deja vu all over again? Netanyahu supporting Trump?
Four years ago, Prime Minister Netanyahu got into a little hot water for appearing to support Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. Is it about to happen again? This is from Josh Rogin.
“I’ve talked to the members of the Israeli government at the highest
levels. I know who they want elected here. It’s not Hillary Clinton.
It’s not Obama 3,” Giuliani told me in an interview at the Republican
National Convention in Cleveland.
In March,
Giuliani traveled to Israel and met personally with Netanyahu, who has
publicly remained neutral on the 2016 presidential election. Giuliani
also met with several other senior Israeli government officials on his
trip. According to him, Israeli government leaders fear that if Clinton
were elected, she would pursue policies unwanted by the Netanyahu
government, such as pushing to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace
process.
“They are politically aware enough to know that if
Hillary gets elected, she is going to go further to her left, to protect
her left flank against Elizabeth Warren,” Giuliani said.
“They know
she’s going to start the two-state solution thing again, cave in to the
Palestinians. They realize Donald Trump can say Islamic terrorism, can
stand up to it. So there’s no question he would be better for the state
of Israel than Hillary.”
One person close to Giuliani told me
that during his March meeting with Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister
said he preferred Republican administrations to Democratic ones and
gave Giuliani a message to personally deliver to Trump with suggestions
about how Trump should talk about Israel-related policy issues. Giuliani
met with Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in New York following
the trip and delivered the message, this person said.
Of course, Netanyahu's office denies it.
In a statement to me, the prime minister’s office categorically
denied that Netanyahu expressed any preference for who should win the
U.S. presidential election or that Netanyahu asked Giuliani to deliver
any message to Trump.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu did not express
any preference for whom the next American President would be, will
continue to scrupulously avoid being dragged into the American elections
and looks forward to working with whomever the American people elect,”
said David Keyes, a spokesman for the prime minister’s office.
And Giuliani had no comment. Still, it's hard not to think that Netanyahu would prefer Trump over Clinton, right?
Here are two more reasons why Netanyahu might be supporting Trump.
Jewish Home leader Bennett: Criminal sanctions won't make a single Haredi join the army
Is Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett having buyer's remorse about his partnership with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid?
In a wide-ranging interview with Haredi website Kikar Shabbat (named after Sabbath Square - a central square in the Haredi area of Meah Shearim - Geula), Bennett says that criminal sanctions won't make a single Haredi enlist in the IDF and that he never vetoed Haredi participation in the government.
Serving the interests of the Hussein Obama administration, rather than those of the State of Israel, chief negotiatorbottle washer Tzipi Livni is trying to prevent Israel's cabinet from voting on the second round of terrorist releases.This is from the first link.
Political sources who spoke to Arutz Sheva on Friday morning revealed
that Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, who heads Israel’s negotiations with
the Palestinian Authority, has been working to bury a bill that would ban the release of terrorists as a “good-will gesture” to the PA.
Livni apparently fears that the bill would make it harder for her to
appease PA leaders, who have repeatedly threatened that there will be no
peace agreement with Israel without the release of every terrorist from Israel’s prisons.
A representative from the government secretary’s office reportedly
called one of the MKs who initiated the bill and said it would be taken
off the table of the ministerial committee for legislation.
Livni is reportedly pressuring Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to
join her in trying to put a stop to the bill before it comes to a vote.
Sources in the Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) party expressed outrage at
the reports. “If Livni is so eager to free murderers, she’ll have to put
it to a democratic vote,” they insisted.
A statement released by the party on Thursday night argued that it is
more important to keep terrorist murderers in jail than to keep Livni
in the government.
Hey guys - you all knew she was in the government when you went into it, and you should have made Netanyahu choose between you and her.... oh... wait... Master Lapid would never have agreed to that.
For those of you who voted Bayit Yehudi, please tell me you won't make that mistake again.
The prime minister’s
associates have talked about forming a coalition of 57 MKs, and then telling
Bennett ahead of the deadline to either join or initiate an election the Right
could lose.
That scenario is looking a lot more likely this afternoon as Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett an ultimatum.
In the coming hours, if there is no breakthrough in the coalition
negotiations with MK Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party and if Lapid does not
back down from his exaggerated demands, the Prime Minister will begin
rapid fire negotiations with the haredi parties, Likud sources said on
Thursday.
A Senior Yesh Atid source in response to the Likud
ultimatum and referring to his party's insistence on obtaining the
Education ministry, said the coalition crisis is not just about
portfolios, it is a battle for Israel's future image and the Education
ministry determines that.
Bennett
responded to the Likud ultimatum on his Facebook page saying,"My
friends in the Likud: Forget about it. It will not work this way. There
are differences and dialogue and compromise are necessary."
1. Netanyahu is hoping to convince Labor's Shelly Yacimovitch to join
the Haredim and give him a coalition. That's kind of hard to believe
given no reports of Netanyahu meeting with Yacimovitch.
2. Netanyahu has decided that Yesh Atid is more trouble than they're
worth, and has actually started to convince Bayit Yehudi of the same
thing. This dovetails with a mass letter of support from National
Religious rabbis to Haredi rabbis that was reported in the Haredi media
on Tuesday. Possible, but not the most likely possibility.
3. Netanyahu is trying to pressure Yair Lapid to get a deal done already
by reminding him that there are other options. This seems most likely.
I should have added a fourth scenario: The 57 MK scenario.
And while Naftali Bennett is putting on a brave face in sticking by Lapid, I think that if there are new elections, he'd lose a lot of votes from national religious voters who aren't enamored with Yair Lapid, and if the Left won that new election, Bennett may as well retire from politics. If they don't reach an agreement, and Netanyahu goes to the 57 MK scenario, I'd bet on the Haredim being willing to do a deal on almost any terms that preserve the yeshivas' status, and that Bennett would have no choice but to go into that coalition.
Israel's future finance minister: 'I don't understand anything about economics'
Thanks to Lahav Harkov for unearthing this video of Israel's soon-to-be-Finance Minister Yair Lapid admitting the truth: He doesn't understand anything about economics.
Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett haven't just been jerking the Haredim and the general public around. They're also jerking around reporters. JPost's Lahav Harkov explains.
At a quarter to midnight, and I got a call from a top Yesh Atid
official. The kind of official that spends hours with Lapid each day.
The kind that has been feeding me and countless other reporters
ostensibly accurate information for months.
"Yesh Atid, Bayit
Yehudi and Kadima formed a bloc. That's 33 MKs – two more than Likud
Beytenu. We want the Foreign Ministry and the Finance Ministry, and if
we get it, we'll support Netanyahu as prime minister for the next
four-plus years," she said.
I repeated the information back to
make sure I understood it correctly, and then tried to contact a Bayit
Yehudi spokesman for confirmation, to no avail. I was left with a
dilemma: The newspaper was going to print at any minute. Should I run
with the story or ignore it? I decided to frantically call The Jerusalem
Post offices and tell them to stop the presses. After all, Yesh Atid
and Bayit Yehudi have had an alliance for weeks now, and have
steadfastly kept to it. This was new politics, as Bennett and Lapid
would say. They hadn't double-crossed each other once.
It's
important to note that the story that the Post ran quoted the Yesh Atid
official almost word-for-word. Reporter Rina Matzliach, who wrote the
story for Channel 2 News' website, did the same, but added in one little
word – "ultimatum" - and then everything went haywire.
An hour
later, it was too late to stop the presses a second time when the same
Yesh Atid source e-mailed me Lapid's Facebook status on the issue.
"I
saw the stories that Naftali Bennett and myself are giving an ultimatum
to the prime minister on the issue of portfolios. It isn't true, and it
isn't dignified. Netanyahu forms the government, and no one is giving
him an ultimatum. This is a transparent attempt to distract from the
real issues," Lapid wrote.
...
It occurred to me that this is all semantics. Last week, Lapid took to
Facebook to say he isn't boycotting haredim; however, he does not want
to sit in a government with Shas or UTJ. In this case, he wants his bloc
to get the foreign and finance portfolios, or else, but he won't use
the word ultimatum.
Lapid reminds me of Bill Clinton arguing that a certain sexual act isn't really 'sex' and that the answer to a question depends upon the meaning of 'is.'
Report: Obama interfering in Israeli coalition talks
This one doesn't strike me as particularly credible (I cannot see Naftali Bennett playing along with Obama on this one), but with that caveat, I'm going to throw it out there anyway.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has just two weeks left to
forge a new coalition government, but the Obama administration is
working feverishly to prevent him from succeeding and force him from
office, according to Middle East expert Dr. Michael Evans.
Evans is the author of numerous books about the various crises in the
Middle East, including “Atomic Iran: Countdown to Armageddon” and the
book he wrote with WND’s Jerome Corsi, “Showdown with Nuclear Iran.” He told WND it’s very clear why Netanyahu hasn’t put a new government together.
“The biggest stumbling block is the Big O, Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama’s got
his team over there. They’ve been over there a couple weeks, and
they’re meeting with the opposition leaders,” Evans said. “This is
fairly existential. Obama doesn’t dislike Netanyahu. He hates him. He
hates him. Netanyahu has been able to succeed against Obama. How did he
do it? He went directly to the House of Representatives and got 18
standing ovations. He went to the U.S. media. But now he’s come to power
weakened. Obama’s come into power strengthened.”
Evans said the argument made by Obama emissaries to Israeli lawmakers
is that Netanyahu won’t last much longer in power so Israelis would be
smart to go with a new leader now so as to forge a better working
relationship with the U.S. Evans said that’s just a smokescreen.
“Obama’s people don’t want Netanyahu back in office. Obama’s people
want a divided Jerusalem. They want a Palestinian state. They want Judea
and Samaria settlements to stop, etc., etc.,” he said. “Anything they
can do to weaken Netanyahu, they’re doing and they’re succeeding at it.”
While Obama’s efforts are working for the moment, Evans believes
Netanyahu will cobble together a government in the coming days, but not
as strong of one as he would like.
“I think ultimately Bibi’s going to put his cabinet together. It
won’t be strong. He wants it to have a broad coalition of maybe 75-80
out of 120 (seats in the Israeli Knesset). I don’t think he’s going to
get that. I think he’s probably going to get something in the high
fifties or, maximum, in the low sixties,” Evans said. “It’s possible
that within a year or two, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will run
again and try to defeat him.”
If Netanyahu cannot build a coalition government within the next two
weeks, Israeli President Shimon Peres will invite second-place finisher
Yair Lapid to forge a group that would make him the new prime minister.
If he also fails, new elections would be called.
“I think it’s very likely that Netanyahu will be able to put a
coalition together, but here’s the problem: Right now, to put a
coalition together, he’s going to have to compromise on his core values.
What he compromises to gain he will ultimately lose,” said Evans,
noting that Netanyahu will feel pressured by the U.S. to make
concessions toward Palestinian statehood and those concessions will mean
the crumbling of the coalition.
But Netanyahu will also feel pressure to accommodate Obama on
statehood because of the specter of diminished U.S. foreign aid to
Israel. Evans said Obama will use the current sequestration fight and
other looming fiscal debates to force Netanyahu’s hand by threatening
air defense assistance and other vital programs.
“It’s an existential dilemma for the prime minister. Any direction he goes, he falls on his own sword,” Evans said.
I hate Obama, think Netanyahu's a weak leader, and am unhappy with how the coalition talks are going. But I don't think Obama is interfering with them, even though he would probably like to interfere.
The three parties together have two more MKs than Likud
Beytenu, and will not join the coalition if their demands are not met. However
if they receive two of the three top-tier portfolios, they will support Prime
Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for a full, four-year term, according to the source.
Netanyahu is holding the Foreign Ministry for Yisrael Beiteinu's Avigdor Lieberman.
Those two extra seats could be significant, because they raise the possibility that if Netanyahu cannot form a government, President Shimon Peres could ask Lapid, Bennett and Mofaz to form a government instead, rather than going to new elections.
I don't believe that the three could form a government. To form a government without the Likud, you would have to take in either the Haredim or the Arabs. Lapid will not sit the Haredim. And if Bennett were to agree to sit with the Arabs, his party will be eviscerated in the next elections. There has never been an Arab party as part of Israel's governing coalition (there have been Arab MK's the coalition as members of Jewish parties, but that's different).
Might Netanyahu try again to turn to Shelly Yacimovitch and the Haredim? Well, yes, but Yacimovitch (Labor) seems unlikely to respond favorably.
Meanwhile,
Attorney-General Yehuda Weinstein said on Wednesday that there is nothing
barring Netanyahu from reserving the portfolio for Yisrael Beytenu chairman
Avigdor Liberman until the trial against him is resolved.
A prime
minister can hold additional portfolios at his will and even without an
“arrangement,” the prime minister could give Liberman any post at any time
(presuming he is found innocent in the trial against him), the attorney-general
said. Weinstein added that all of the issues involved in the portfolio question
were political and not legal, giving him no reason to get
involved.
Further, he rejected any concern that Liberman “hovering” over
the future of the Foreign Ministry would pressure ministry workers into changing
their testimony against Liberman, out of concern that he might retaliate in the
future.
Weinstein announced his position on the issue, in response to a
request from Labor MK Merav Michaeli and OMETZ watchdog group head Aryeh Avneri
to rule on the issue and demand a commitment from Netanyahu not to follow
through with the alleged backroom agreement.
I'd be surprised - okay not astounded but surprised - if Labor agreed to go into a coalition where the Foreign Ministry was being held for Lieberman.
By the way, Lapid is denying that he issued an ultimatum. But JPost reporter Lahav Harkov has him figured out.
Yesh Atid
leader Yair Lapid denied Wednesday night that Yesh Atid and Bayit
Yehudi had given Netanyahu an ultimatum over portfolios.
In a
Facebook post, Lapid wrote that "it is not true and not
honorable...Netanyahu is the one forming the government and neither of
us would give an ultimatum to the prime minister."
Lapid has a penchant for dealing in semantics. Last week, the Yesh
Atid leader said he does not boycott any person, including haredim, but
that he refuses to sit in a government with Shas or UTJ.
There's a lot of acrimony in the Haredi handouts (the free newspapers) in the last couple of days about being in the opposition as the reality of that almost certainly happening sinks in. There's talk about exposing 'where all the money really goes,' comparing budgets in Haredi yeshivoth to those in the national religious yeshivoth, and calls for the Haredi parties and their followers to turn to the Left on security matters (which has prompted the Yesha Council to issue a statement that the Haredim should be in the government).
This is a very different viewpoint.
The article is in Hebrew on a Haredi website (yes, there are a few even in Israel), and it's written by Haredi journalist and Gerrer Hassid Aharon Granot, who lives in Kiryat Arba (near Hebron in Judea). For those who don't read Hebrew, I'll translate the last couple of paragraphs.
I read what you wrote about your transfer to the Left and I laughed. By the way, why take revenge against the hated 'Mizrochnikim' [supporters of the National Religious Party. CiJ] regarding the mitzva [positive commandment. CiJ] to settle the land of Israel. I suggest that you take revenge by violating the Sabbath, it's much cooler. If only because of this or that anger at the srugim [those who wear knitted skullcaps. CiJ], which derives from lack of knowledge of the facts and superfluous hysteria you've decided to 'cut' to the Leftist camp, stay there, because the dirt of the Left will be pleasant to you. We will manage without you. By the way, you can be a member of the Meretz party, which will certainly guard the Torah world and will ensure that our friends will continue to devote their lives to Torah in the study halls. I heard the rabbi Zehava Galon, may she live a long life, saying this explicitly. If you're interested, I have enough Arab friends in the Balad party who will accept you with love. You are a talented journalist. The Occupation magazine is looking for reporters - believe me, I get it by mail. Have you, to prove your newfound Leftism, placed a picture of yourself in the demonstrations at Bil'in? Even without 'cutting' to the Left, I have thousands of these and not only in Bil'in but also in other places to which no Leftist has ever gone. [/sarc CiJ]
In conclusion, yesterday I was at the holy home of our master, the genius Rabbi Dov Leor. I heard something there that I only wish I could tell you. I can only tell you that you will yet kneel to ask forgiveness from Naftali Bennett, who kept his word and protected the Haredi world. And who will pay for this baseless hatred? Only God knows.
I don't know what is going on behind the scenes. I can tell you that one of these locals had an article last week that claimed that boys from Maarava and Yishuv (two high schools that do matriculation exams and whose graduates go on mostly to Haredi yeshivoth) are the first ones being drafted and I know of at least one instance where that is true (someone who has actually received a draft notice - not just a rumor). Are there more? Possibly. Does that contradict what Granot has written? Maybe. But at this point, all we can do is to wait and see.
Right now the Likud MKs are silent as each of them hopes to be rewarded for
their good behavior with a ministerial portfolio or at least a choice Knesset Committee chairmanship.
But after the government forms and the dust settles the situation may be
considerably different.
And this even more so in light of discussions about plans to change the Likud system to strip the rank and file members who set
the current list of the power to determine who will represent them in the
next elections.
So there you are, an MK who invested in developing a reputation as a serious
member of the national camp. You aren't a minister and you know that the rules may be changed to prevent you from being re-elected.
And PM Netanyahu pulls a Sharon.
Do you sit quietly, as your reputation goes down the toilet and this while
knowing that it will no doubt be you last term in the Knesset?
Hard to predict.
If Likud-Beiteinu stay together action will be more complicated.
But if, as planned, Likud Beitenu splits into Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu
after the government is formed, then there are all kinds of possibilities.
A third of the Likud MKs could split off as a faction and join with Bayit
Yehudi.
If a majority walks away they can even take the "Likud" name with them.
Will Likud - Bennett - Lapid coalition flounder over Foreign Ministry?
Naftali Bennett has decided he wants to be finance minister. As a former high tech entrepreneur, that might even make sense. But Yair Lapid - a former television show host who was offered the finance ministry - wants to be foreign minister. Not only is he unqualified, but Netanyahu can say to him, 'you and Bennett wouldn't break your pact - don't expect me to break mine with Lieberman.' Netanyahu has promised to hold the foreign ministry for foreign minister and Yisrael Beiteinu chief Avigdor Lieberman.
Bayit Yehudi leader Naftali Bennett is the leading candidate for
Finance Ministry, as Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid did not accept Likud
Beytenu's offer of the portfolio Tuesday.
A senior Likud-Beytenu
source said that Lapid had been offered the Finance Ministry, and that
the party would keep the Foreign Ministry, Lapid's preferred portfolio.
Lapid has yet to give Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu an answer,
but sources in his party say he will continue to push for the Foreign
Ministry, with the Interior Ministry as his second choice.
No
progress was made on coalition negotiations on Tuesday, mainly due to
the impasse over the Foreign Ministry and Yesh Atid's demand that there
be only 18 Ministries.
The Bayit Yehudi told Likud Beytenu's negotiating team that, despite
the pact between the two parties, they have no problem with a larger
number of portfolios. [I think that's the first independent thought I've heard from Bennett since the elections ended. CiJ]
Netanyahu is expected to face difficulties
selecting ministers within the Likud if the number of ministers
decreases to 18, as he seeks a majority for Likud-Beytenu within the
government. In such a situation, six or seven Likud MKs and three
Yisrael Beytenu MKs would get portfolios, while nine 19th Knesset MKs
from the former party and four from the latter are currently ministers.
As part of the agreement between Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi, the two parties are not competing over the same ministries.
Bennett's
party has requested that he receive the Finance Ministry and that the
Housing and Construction, Transportation and Religious Services
portfolios go to Bayit Yehudi, a party source said.
Yesh Atid has asked for Interior, Education, and Communications portfolios, in addition to the Foreign Ministry for Lapid.
The
battle for the Education Ministry is expected to be rough, since
current minister Gideon Sa'ar, who came in first place in the Likud
primary, hopes to remain in his seat.
Here we go: Haredi UTJ party proposes law to disband Knesset
There isn't a coalition yet and already someone wants new elections. United Torah Judaism MK Uri Maklev has introduced a bill in the Knesset calling to disband the Knesset and go to new elections. The bill has been co-sponsored by his entire seven-member faction. The bill states that the reason for its introduction is that "upon the opening of coalition negotiations, Jewish Home and Yesh Atid announced that they were boycotting the Haredi parties" (link in Hebrew).
The article states that Maklev's argument is that Netanyahu is being forced to establish a coalition he doesn't want, that Bennett and Lapid are inexperienced (which is true) and that they are acting out of hatred (which is also probably true) and in disregard of minority rights.
"This government will act as a government within a government and will not be able to deal with the burning issues on the agenda... and will endanger the country's economic and national security future...."
You might view this bill as a protest bill, but if it's brought to a vote and fails, no similar bill can be reintroduced for six months.
Israel HaYom, the Adelson-owned free daily newspaper that is close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, is reporting that the Prime Minister may be about to pull a rabbit out of his hat in the coalition negotiations. The rabbit is named Shelly Yacimovich.
But not everyone shares these
assessments. The haredi newspaper "Mishpacha" reported on Monday that
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered his coalition negotiating
team to make huge efforts to bring Labor's Shelly Yachimovich into his
coalition. "Hamishpacha" reported that Netanyahu told Yachimovich that
she had until the end of this week to present her positions for entering
the government, and that the Labor party chairwoman is apparently
drawing up such a document. Should Yechimovich enter the government,
Netanyahu could form a government with Labor [15], the haredi parties
[18], Tzippi Livni's Hatnuah [6], Kadima [2] as well as the
Likud-Yisrael Beytenu list [31], to give him 72 Knesset seats. With
that, Netanyahu could leave both Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi out of
the government.
According to the paper, Netanyahu told the three heads
of the Shas party at a meeting on Sunday that "I am meeting with you for
one purpose, and that is to get your help in getting Yechimovich into
the coalition."
Nevertheless, Netanyahu and Habayit Hayehudi
Chairman Naftali Bennett met on Sunday amid inter-party tensions that
have mired the most recent coalition negotiations. Both the prime
minister and the Habayit Hayehudi chairman, who have often been
described as at odds for personal and political reasons, described the
meeting as "pleasant and practical."
Bennett has requested the Finance Ministry
portfolio, while Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid will likely insist on
becoming the next foreign minister.
Habayit Hayehudi did not disclose the details of the meeting.
Netanyahu has a pact with Avigdor Lieberman that he will hold the Foreign Ministry for the Yisrael Beiteinu chairman until the latter's legal problems are resolved. Will he give the ministry to Lapid anyway? Not if he has another alternative.
In the meantime, the Haredi daily Yated Neeman (Hebrew edition) reports in Tuesday's editions on a threat by the Degel HaTorah faction of United Torah Judaism to expose where the billions really go if the yeshivas are harmed by the new government. They are in a position to make a credible threat like that. Degel MK Moshe Gafni has been the chair of the Knesset Finance Committee for some time now. It is widely believed that among those billions are some of the smaller 'outposts' in Judea and Samaria. However, the billions also likely include several pet projects of the Left. After all, 'socialism' is still not a dirty word in this country.
So watch Netanyahu pull a rabbit out of his hat, but remember that Trix are for kids... and sometimes for silly rabbits.
Every seven years, Israel's Right implodes and we get a government of the Left.
In 1992, the Right was so splintered that we lost Yitzchak Shamir (who had done a great job of holding off Bush-Baker) and got Yitzchak Rabin and Oslo instead.
In 1999, the Right brought down Netanyahu I and we got Ehud Barak, Camp David and the intifada instead.
In 2006, Ariel Sharon ran Left, dismembered the Likud, and we got Ehud K. Olmert, rockets from Gaza and the Second Lebanon War.
In 2013... is Naftali Bennett about to snatch a Leftist government from the jaws of 61 Rightist seats?
Prime Minister Netanyahu will ask President Peres on Saturday for a two-week extension to present his new government.
Deadlocked talks
with potential coalition partners have forced Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu to seek more time to build a new government and avert
a snap election, officials said on Friday.
They said Netanyahu would meet
President Shimon Peres on Saturday to ask for a two-week extension after
his right-wing party, the narrow victor in Israel's January 22 ballot,
exhausted the standard four weeks allotted to build a coalition.
Two other data points here. First, JPost reported on Thursday night that if there is no government by March 16, President Obama may not come.
And second, the State's star witness in former Prime Minister Olmert's latest bribery trial passed away this morning, leaving the entire trial in doubt. Olmert has already said that if there is a new election he will run.
Following the request of the Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home-New
National Religious Party) and Yesh Atid parties, senior sources in the
Likud party say the party has expressed a willingness to re-open the
coalition agreement it signed with Tzipi Livni's Hatenu'ah party and
reconsider the authority given to Livni in negotiations with the
Palestinian Authority, according to a Friday report by Ma'ariv/nrg. Under the agreement, Livni stands to be Justice Minister.
The
sources told the newspaper that all of Livni's authorities will change
and some will be taken away from her. Until now Likud-Beyteinu has said
that the agreement cannot be re-opened.
The reason that Jewish Home does not want Livni to be Justice Minister is that as Justice Minister, she could prevent the adoption of the Levy Report. Of course, the Levy Report should have been adopted before the elections....
Likud says Lapid won't sit in coalition with Haredim
All those years in Tommy Lapid's house affected his son, Yair. And although Yair keeps saying what he thinks the Likud wants to hear - that his Yesh Atid party will sit in a coalition with the Haredi parties - the Likud is hearing something completely different.
Following the coalition talks at the Kfar Maccabiah hotel in
Ramat Gan, attorney David Shimron, head of the Likud Beytenu negotiating team,
said his list and Yesh Atid “discussed a lot of issues, and dedicated a large
part of the meeting to clarifying Yesh Atid’s stance about haredi parties
joining the government.”
According to Shimron, “the answer we got on this
matter was that essentially, to Yesh Atid, there is no place for haredim in the
next government.”
He added that Likud Beytenu was “asking Bayit Yehudi
this question to understand if they reject [having] haredi parties in the
government,” and that the two factions would meet on Friday, their fifth meeting
this week, to discuss the matter.
Yesh Atid – as it has done since talks
began last month – denied rejecting a government with haredim
outright.
The party said, however, that it would stick to its principles,
which include several problematic areas for Shas and United Torah Judaism, and
expressed hope that the next government would reflect the will of the people and
allow for a new political agenda.
Likud seems to be concentrating its efforts on prying Yesh Atid and Jewish Home (Bayit Yehudi) apart, rather than on reaching a deal with Lapid.
MK Ofir Akunis (Likud Beytenu), a close ally of Netanyahu,
called for Bayit Yehudi not to make its entry to the coalition dependent on
pushing the haredim away.
“I can’t imagine Bayit Yehudi preventing the
formation of a nationalist government led by Likud, and endangering the
interests of its voters,” he said.
Similarly, former coalition chairman
Ze’ev Elkin (Likud Beytenu) reminded Bayit Yehudi that the previous coalition
without haredim, which included the National Religious Party (the predecessor of
Bayit Yehudi), had voted for the disengagement from Gaza. He called for Bayit
Yehudi to allow for a coalition consisting of 61 MKs in the “national camp”
before trying to bring in Yesh Atid.
Fellow Likud Beytenu MK Yariv Levin
suggested that Bayit Yehudi help find a compromise with the haredi parties that
would allow the ultra-Orthodox to enlist in the IDF and integrate in
society.
Earlier on Thursday, Likud Beytenu denied reports that it had
given up on pulling Lapid and Bayit Yehudi leader Naftali Bennett apart and that
it planned to bring them into the government first, then ask the haredi parties
to join as well.
“We are continuing efforts to form a broad coalition
that will include the haredim, Bayit Yehudi, and we hope Yesh Atid and Kadima,”
Shimron stated before talks with Yesh Atid.
As the catcher for the Hated Yankees used to say, it' ain't over 'til it's over.'
Netanyahu had not spoken
out in favor of Yesh Atid joining the coalition since he met with Lapid shortly
after the January 22 election.
Relations between Netanyahu and Lapid
deteriorated following a statement the Yesh Atid leader made about running
against Netanyahu in the next general election. The prime minister vowed in
closed conversations not to form a coalition without haredi (ultra-Orthodox)
parties, while Lapid was quoted as saying he would not join a government with
them.
But a political pact Lapid made with Bayit Yehudi chairman Naftali
Bennett made it impossible for Netanyahu to form a coalition without both Bayit
Yehudi (12 Knesset seats) and Yesh Atid (19). Shortly before Netanyahu’s
invitation to Lapid was sent to the press on Sunday night, Likud sources said
the prime minister had realized he had no choice but to back
down.
“Netanyahu calls for the formation of a government with a majority
from the nationalist camp and invites Yesh Atid to join as well,” a Likud
statement said. “Bayit Yehudi was the first party that received an offer to join
Netanyahu’s government.
The main campaign promise Bayit Yehudi made to
its voters was that it would join a Netanyahu-led government and strengthen it
from the right. The only thing currently stopping the formation of a government
with a majority from the nationalist camp is the refusal of Bayit Yehudi to join
the government.”
Likud Beytenu and Bayit Yehudi negotiating teams met
late on Sunday following the conclusion of Purim to discuss the as yet unpassed
2013 state budget and a compromise proposal for equalizing the burden of service
that Bayit Yehudi and Yesh Atid had agreed on.
Bennett persuaded Lapid to
make significant concessions on the issue, including increasing the limit on
yeshiva students who do not serve, raising the age at which haredim will be
drafted, and not fining draft evaders personally.
The rest of the article reads like a propaganda piece for Bennett's Jewish Home party. But I want to point out a few things.
It remains to be seen whether Netanyahu will back down and not allow Haredi parties into the coalition. But if the aim of the Haredi parties was to preserve the rights of the boys to continue to learn in yeshiva, the compromise between Jewish Home and Yesh Atid - if it's now being reported accurately - may just accomplish that for them. You see, when I posted about that 'compromise' earlier, the article didn't mention that last point about not fining draft evaders personally. What that means is that if they fine anyone at all, it will be the yeshivas - who will have the fines offset against what they get from the government. If the yeshivas can make up those amounts from donations (mainly from abroad), they won't lose anything either. The boys will be ordered to ignore the orders to appear for the draft en masse. They will ignore the orders, and there will be no personal consequences to them.
Is that a realistic compromise? Maybe. As I've written many times, if all the yeshiva boys showed up at the IDF recruitment office tomorrow morning, the IDF wouldn't want them and wouldn't know what to do with them if they were forced to take them. And if the IDF did take the Haredi yeshiva boys, and they all decided to go to work three years from now (as Yair Lapid and others claim is their goal), there would be no jobs for them except possibly within the Haredi community. Much of the secular community won't hire people who appear Haredi regardless of their qualifications. (As an aside, I will mention that one of my Facebook friends who is now advocating strongly for a 'universal draft' once suggested to me - and not in a nasty way, but in a realistic one - that if I wore a different skullcap, I would get more business. That's why most of my business comes from overseas).
The fact that Haredim won't be drafted until they're 21 is also significant. You can bet that by the time they're 21, many will be married (and maybe even have children), which means that the IDF will have an excuse for not taking them that is not based on the fact that they are Haredim (married soldiers get paid more). I would bet that the few yeshivas that require boys to be in their 5th or 6th year before they're allowed to date are going to rethink those policies if they boys are going to be exposed to the draft when they're 21.
And if these become the coalition guidelines, the Haredim will decide on their own not to be part of the government because they cannot go back to their communities and say that they agreed to a 'compromise.' But in essence that will be what happened. The 'burden' won't be 'equalized' in the way Yair Lapid's voters had in mind. And Naftali Bennett's voters will have to think about why they gave their votes to Yair Lapid when and if we start giving away territory.
Or maybe this is all just a Purim story (today is Purim in Jerusalem).
Jewish Home party leader Naftali Bennett (I almost typed Yair Lapid which gives you an idea how interchangeable they've become) and Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid have reached an agreement on drafting Haredim.
According
to a Channel 10 report confirmed by both parties, Lapid agreed to Bennett’s
request to increase the number of haredim who would be given draft exemptions
from 400 to 2,000. He also acquiesced to haredim being drafted at age 21 rather
than 18.
Bayit Yehudi representatives will discuss such compromises with
their Likud Beytenu counterparts on Sunday after rejecting the Likud’s plan for
equalizing the burden of service in a meeting on Friday. At the meeting, Bayit
Yehudi representatives also raised the issue of compelling haredim to study the
core curriculum, including English and math. Such issues were also raised in a
Likud meeting on Friday with Shas leaders.
There is absolutely zero chance that United Torah Judaism will agree to a quota system on drafting Haredim. Shas might agree to it if they get to determine who the 2,000 draft exemptions are. But to put this in perspective, 400 was the original number of draft exemptions in the 1950's when the country's population was far less than one fifth of what it is today.
There is even less of a chance that either party will agree to having the 'core curriculum' introduced into their (essentially private - but even most private schools here take government money) schools. And Bennett himself has admitted that English is the only part of the 'core curriculum' that's necessary for the job market and that cannot be made up later on.
After all, when I cast my ballot for
Bennett, I didn’t realize that Yael German, former Meretz member, or Ofer
Shelah, the decidedly left-wing former journalist, were of part of the deal. But
this is precisely the situation that has been created by Bennett’s decision to
march in lock-step on the issue of national service for the ultra-Orthodox with
Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid list, in which German and Shelah are in the No. 3 and No.
6 slots, respectively.
I am confident that many supporters of Bennett’s
Bayit Yehudi were unaware that they were voting for a“package deal with Lapid’s
Yesh Atid, in which Bennett would condition his participation in a Netanyahu-led
government on Lapid’s participation.
Had they believed that this was a
tangible possibility, it is highly plausible that a considerable number of them,
myself included, might well have voted differently.
By insisting on the
acceptance of both his and Lapid’s demand regarding universal conscription of
the ultra-Orthodox into national service as the sine qua non for his agreeing to
join the coalition, Bennett is grossly distorting the will of his voters, and
abusing the mandate given him by them.
...
But as important as
this matter is, it was not the cardinal issue for which Bennett and Bayit Yehudi
were given the support they received. The primary banner that Bennett’s
constituency rallied around was his opposition to Palestinian statehood,
opposition which he was slated to spearhead.
This was the fundamental
reason that many, including me, supported his party – despite grave
reservations, some of which I have expressed on this page, concerning his
operational proposal on how this should be undertaken.
True, Bennett and
Bayit Yehudi are to be commended for it not being a narrow single-issue faction,
and for presenting a multifaceted platform, addressing several vitally important
socioeconomic problems plaguing Israeli society. However, these were never
perceived or presented, prior to the elections, as being imperatives that had to
be satisfactorily addressed before the party participated in a Likud-led
coalition.
Certainly, voters were never put on notice that such
participation was predicated on the approval of Yesh Atid on any issue –
including the ultra-Orthodox one, a.k.a. “sharing/equalizing the
burden.”
Sherman goes on to expose the real Yair Lapid - and it sounds remarkably like his father Tommy. And then he summarizes the 'accomplishments' of Bennett's pact with Lapid.
It is a pact whose only tangible result so far has been to ensconce Tzipi Livni,
a politician who has brought incompetence to previously unattained levels, at
the head of the crucially important Justice Ministry and of the negotiating team
with the Palestinians. Both as foreign minister and head of Kadima, she has
shown that no outcome is too disastrous for her to accomplish.
It is
difficult to overstate the gravity Livni’s appointment might have for Bennett’s
constituency.
It virtually ensures the continued animosity of the legal
establishment toward the Jewish residents of Judea and Samaria and makes the
possibility of adoption of the Levy Report, endorsing the settlements’ legality,
more remote.
But worse, it diminishes the chances of much-needed reforms
to restore the rapidly eroding public confidence in the judiciary and to
increase the transparency of funding of Israeli NGOs by foreign governments –
both urgently required initiatives, perversely decried by Livni-supportive
circles as undemocratic.
Moreover, whatever her substantive authority to
advance initiatives with the Palestinians, her formal appointment as head of the
negotiation team can only raise the profile the two-state notion, and put
greater wind in the sails of its proponents in the media, at home and abroad –
especially in light of the inevitable pressure that will accompany Barack
Obama’s imminent visit.
As you all know, I didn't vote for Naftali Bennett (or maybe you didn't know...). On Friday, I was speaking to someone who voted for Otzma l'Yisrael, Michael Ben Ari's party that didn't meet the threshold, and whose vote was therefore 'wasted.' The theme of the conversation was 'this is why I couldn't bring myself to vote for any party that's Mafdal (National Religious). They're always short-sighted.' I wonder how many other Bennett voters agree.
The poll found that Yesh Atid would win 30
Knesset seats, Likud Beytenu 22, Bayit Yehudi 15, Labor 13, Shas nine, Meretz
seven, United Torah Judaism six, Hadash and The Tzipi Livni Party four each,
United Arab List and Strong Israel three each, and Kadima and Balad two
each.
The poll had 503 respondents representing a statistical sample of
the adult Israeli population, and a margin of error of 4.3 percentage
points.
When asked what Netanyahu’s main consideration is in building his
coalition, 59 percent of the respondents said personal issues, 24% said the good
of the country, and 17% had no idea.
The very fact that question was asked with those choices for answers tells you that this poll was looking to denigrate Netanyahu. I'm not happy with him either, but Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi have made it almost impossible for Netanyahu to form a coalition without the Left.
President Shimon Peres could initiate another election if Netanyahu
fails to form a government by the March 15 deadline. The prime minister’s
associates have talked about forming a coalition of 57 MKs, and then telling
Bennett ahead of the deadline to either join or initiate an election the Right
could lose.
Likud Beytenu will hold its first coalition negotiations with
Bayit Yehudi in more than a week on Friday morning at Ramat Gan’s Kfar Maccabiah
Hotel. Sources in Bayit Yehudi said they would discuss the as yet unpassed 2013
state budget, how to equalize the burden of IDF service and more matters of
principle.
The sources said they would try to reopen the coalition deal
Netanyahu signed on Tuesday with Livni, in which she was given the Justice
portfolio and authority over negotiations with the Palestinians.
“There
is no reason why we cannot advance and reach an agreement on a government led by
the nationalist camp,” a Likud source said.
But Bayit Yehudi’s alliance
with Yesh Atid has made forming a government much more difficult. Bennett and
Lapid met on Thursday with Kadima chairman Shaul Mofaz to coordinate
strategy.
A Bayit Yehudi source said after the meeting that he believed
all three parties would end up joining the coalition.
I don't believe that. If he has the other two, Netanyahu doesn't need Mofaz and doesn't have to create another ministry for a two-person faction. Netanyahu has already had a bad experience with Mofaz and I don't think he'll take him if he doesn't need him.
I also believe Lapid is determined to be a martyr in opposition.
As to Bennett, his voters didn't vote for Lapid. He had 18 seats in the polls until Netanyahu attacked him, but if there's a new election over his refusal to abandon Lapid, I suspect he'll be attacked by the national religious rabbis, who are unhappy about it already.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, was a fool to humiliate Bennett by making him apologize to Sara.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
