Israel Matzav

New poll: Likud 30, Kadima 5

This makes you wonder why Prime Minister Netanyahu is kissing up to Kadima chairman Shaul Mofaz. But then, I was wondering that already (and think I know the answer).

Haaretz's Barak Ravid tweets in Hebrew the results of a new poll from a polling company called "Panels" which says that if elections were held today, these would be the results:

Likud 30
Labor 16
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid) 15
Yisrael Beiteinu 12
Shas 7
National Union 7
Meretz 6
Kadima 5
United Torah Judaism 5
Jewish Home 4
Chadash 4

Arabs 10

A few points: Look for Likud to try to absorb Kadima so as to further dilute Moshe Feiglin's strength in the party. That becomes more and more likely as Kadima continues to founder in the polls.

Ehud Barak's Atzmaut party is wiped out. Look for Netanyahu to try to coop Barak into Likud and guarantee him a high position on the Knesset slate.

By traditional right-left breakdowns, the Right has 65 seats here (Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, National Union, United Torah Judaism and Jewish Home). But it is far more likely that Netanyahu will take Yesh Atid and Kadima into the coalition and that he will leave out National Union. If what's currently talked about as 'draft reform' goes through, Shas and United Torah Judaism are unlikely to go into any coalition headed by Netanyahu. Ever.

Some food for thought late on a Monday night....

Labels: Ehud Barak, Kadima, Knesset elections 2012, Likud party, Shas, Yair Lapid

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:57 AM