Hmmm.... Lapid: We won't recommend Left form next government
לפיד טוען שדבריו הוצאו מהקשרם אך הקלטת הראיון למקור ראשון מוכיחה שהוא אכן אמר: ״לא תמצאו אותי ממליץ על השמאל״, ובוזי זה שמאל?, שאלנו. "כן״
— חגי סגל (@haggai_segal) February 26, 2015
For the Hebrew impaired, the tweet above from Makor Rishon columnist Haggai Segal says "[Yesh Atid party leader Yair] Lapid claims that his words were taken out of context, but the recording of the interview with Makor Rishon proves that he said 'you won't find me recommending [that] the Left [form the next government].' 'And Buzi [Herzog] is the Left,' we asked. 'Yes.'
The way Israel's government works is that after the elections, the President calls in the leader of each party and asks who should be given the first opportunity to try to form a government. The President then charges the leader of the party who seems most likely to succeed to form a coalition. That's why sometimes, even if a party has the most votes, it will not be asked to form the government.
Kadima party chairman Shaul Mofaz is opening a Kollel. For those who are Hebrew impaired, the ad campaign to which the yeshiva student in the cartoon is responding is explained here.
“Livni will not stay,” Lapid said at a
cultural event in Rishon Lezion on Saturday. “Her plan to present an alternative
collapsed and disintegrated into dust. She won’t stay in the Knesset at the helm
of an opposition faction of eight seats as deputy chairwoman of the State
Control Committee.
Instead she will do what she did before: Go
home.”
Senior Likud officials made the same prediction last week after
Netanyahu ruled out giving Livni a portfolio that would enable her to negotiate
with the Palestinians. They said they believed it would be easier to bring
Livni’s party into the coalition after she quit politics.
...
But Kadima officials said Livni had already proven that she does not accept the
rules of democracy when she quit politics following her loss in the Kadima
leadership race last March.
“She refused during that race to say she
would stay in Kadima if she lost,” a Kadima official said. “Now she must tell
the public what she will do when she loses the general election, rather than
send people to make commitments in her name that she will not
honor.”
And the egomaniac who heads the 'Tzipi Livni party' (we were all joking at the Sabbath table what a stupid name that is) responds.
Former foreign minister Tzipi Livni’s responded to her opponents
across the political spectrum on Sunday after rivals said she would not
stay if her Tzipi
Livni Party fails to obtain at least double-digit support in the January
22
general election.
Asked on Army Radio Sunday morning whether she
would leave politics if she fared poorly, Livni said those who say
otherwise were scared by her political comeback.
"I returned with a deep understanding that I may have to pay a personal
price of starting from a different [lower] level but I have to keep
struggling," she said. "I came back to fight and I will do it from any
place, from the Knesset or the cabinet."
For those of you who are religious, let's hope that she drops out of politics. Out of all the Israeli politicians I've heard speak, Livni is the only one who compares with Meretz in her hostility toward religious Jews.
The Haredi United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party has asked the central elections committee to disqualify an ad by the Kadima party, which claims that married yeshiva students receive NIS 3400 per month while soldiers receive NIS 352 per month.
UTJ chairman MK Yisrael Eichler, who filed the complaint, wrote that
the figure given for state funds provided to full-time yeshiva students
of NIS 3,400 was “patently false,” and that the purpose of the
advertisement was to “arouse hostility and confrontation with haredi
Jews.”
“This will cause hatred and even violence,” Eichler claimed.
There are currently approximately 45,000 full time yeshiva students who receive NIS 828 a month from the government.
Of those, approximately 10,000 also receive NIS 1,040 a month in income support.
Last week, the Dan and Egged bus companies both refused to post the campaign banners on their buses.
Egged said that it would not allow its buses to be used as a platform
for negative advertisements that would make passengers uncomfortable.
Kadima said in response to Dan and Egged’s decision that the
companies were coming out against IDF soldiers who bear the burden of
military service for the country, and whose bus travel represents “a
nice income for their owners.”
Kadima has taken Dan to court over the issue, but Egged eventually agreed to use the party’s advertisements.
This is wrong on a lot of levels. First, Kadima, in any event, is a party that according to the polls is unlikely to be in the next Knesset.
Second, the term avreich and its plural avreichim do not refer to all full-time yeshiva students, but only to married yeshiva students. I believe that married soldiers - even conscripts - are paid more than NIS 352 per month.
Third, the NIS 3400 figure, as Rabbi Eichler correctly points out, is a lie, and yes it's designed to incite hatred against Haredim.
But fourth, I would turn the whole thing around. I would argue that I would be happy to pay NIS 3400 per month to combat soldiers (not jobnikim) if the IDF becomes a volunteer army. The expense of paying the combat soldiers would be offset by the millions of shekels saved by not drafting people who really don't belong in anyone's army.
I've made the argument before for a volunteer army. So has Moshe Feiglin. And so has Haaretz.A volunteer army would likely do more to reduce hostility to Haredim than anything else. So why aren't the Haredi parties discussing it? Why isn't anyone else? (And yes, I have some ideas as to the answers to those questions, but not I'm posting them tonight).
An appalling editorial that misstates facts right and left graces the pages of Sunday's New York Times. Who wrote it? I'd love to know....
Six decades after Israel’s founding, its citizens remain deeply at odds over the future of their democracy. The latest illustration is the disintegration of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new governing coalition after only 10 weeks.
The coalition is just fine thank you. Kadima, a party that currently has 29 seats, but which polls say will drop to single numbers in new elections, has left the coalition. Why do you think they joined in the first place? Hint: It wasn't because they actually care about the issues.
But when Shaul Mofaz and his centrist Kadima Party joined the government in May, the merger created a much broader coalition. It seemed to give Mr. Netanyahu — a disappointing, risk-averse leader — unprecedented authority to get things done.
Actually, Kadima joined the coalition to save itself from electoral defeat. They latched onto one populist issue - the need for a replacement for the Tal Law - and hoped to use it to bootstrap themselves back into the Knesset. Recent polls make it clear that no one was fooled by that ploy.
Mr. Mofaz became deputy prime minister and outlined an encouraging agenda. The first priority would be integrating minority populations of ultra-Orthodox Jews and Israeli Arabs into the military and civilian service.
Actually, one of the main reasons that the partnership with Kadima failed was the fact that Kadima was opposed to drafting 'Israeli Arabs.' They were only interested in 'getting' the ultra-Orthodox. The rest of the coalition had broader goals. No way you would know that from reading the New York Times.
The coalition would also revive peace negotiations with the Palestinians, pass a national budget and enact electoral reforms.
It takes two to tango on 'peace negotiations.' Is the Times even aware that Abu Mazen canceled a meeting with Mofaz? No Israeli coalition can decide to 'revive peace negotiations with the Palestinians' unless the 'Palestinians' also want to revive them. That is clearly not the case. The coalition actually did start work on a national budget, which is not something that happens overnight (although the Times is also loathe to point out that our most recent national budget - which was for two years - was passed more recently than the last Obama administration budget).
But the coalition quickly collapsed over the issue of military service, which has exacerbated tensions between secular and religious Jews and with Arabs. Secular Israelis are increasingly resentful of the tendency of the ultra-Orthodox to refuse to serve and to separate themselves from the country’s mainstream.
The issue came to a head after the Supreme Court invalidated a law that granted draft exemptions to thousands of religious students and mandated that it be rewritten by Aug. 1.
The Times acts like Mofaz joined the government after the court ruling. But that's not the case. The court ruling was the main reason Kadima joined the government. They saw an opportunity to save their political skins. It didn't work out that way.
There was also talk of doubling army enlistment for Arabs. Israeli Palestinians are not required to join the army, and most do not. Many feel like second-class citizens and are deeply conflicted about their place in Israeli society.
Whose talk was that? Not Mofaz's. And what's an 'Israeli Palestinian'? I would guess that anyone who describes themselves as an 'Israeli Palestinian' would feel quite conflicted about their place in Israeli society. But we refer to them as 'Israeli Arabs,' while some of them refer to themselves as 'Palestinians.' Unless the Times is referring to Arabs who live beyond the 1949 armistice lines, and no one is proposing to draft them.
Demographic changes are making political compromise harder. Experts say an influx of Jews from the former Soviet Union and a high birthrate in the ultra-Orthodox community mean that many Israelis have a cultural mistrust of the democratic values on which the state was founded.
Jews from the former Soviet Union and ultra-Orthodox Jews (especially the ones who come from New York City) have a 'cultural mistrust' of the 'democratic values' on which the state was founded? Who wrote that line? Bill Clinton? Two words: Prove it.
The Palestinian population is also expanding, hastening a day when Jews could be a minority.
Actually, the 'Palestinian population' is expanding at about the same rate as the Jewish population, and if the world would allow them to leave, many of them would opt to do so. So that line is nonsense. Based on current trends, Jews will not be a minority here.
Mr. Netanyahu’s past dependence on hard-line parties has manifested itself in aggressive settlement building and resistance to serious peace talks with the Palestinians — who themselves have not shown enough commitment to a solution. Without Kadima’s moderating force, these trends will continue.
Actually, Mr. Netanyahu has not built a single 'settlement' since taking office, implemented a 10-month 'settlement freeze' and has spent the last 3+ years calling for 'talks without preconditions' with the 'Palestinians.' It's the 'Palestinians' who have refused to come to the table. Oops.
There are other worrisome developments. The Association for Civil Rights in Israel has expressed concern over “intensifying infringements on democratic freedoms.” In the past two years, activists say, more than 25 bills have been proposed or passed by the Parliament to limit freedom of speech and of the press; penalize, defund or investigate nongovernmental groups; restrict judicial independence; and trample minority rights.
I think that throwaway line was referring to this. It's been more than a year, and the NGO's still seem to be around. Hmmm.
According to polls in Friday's newspapers, if elections were held today, the Likud would remain the country's leading political party, while Kadima - currently the largest party in the Knesset but in opposition - would be eviscerated.
A poll in Ma'ariv showed Likud keeping its current 27 seats in the Knesset, while Yediot Aharonot had the prime minister's party drop to 25, after its previous poll, in May, gave the Likud 30 seats.
Kadima would drop to seven seats, one-fourth of its current size, if elections were held today, according to both polls.
Labor leader Shelly Yechimovich emerged as Netanyahu's most formidable challenger in both polls, though Yediot proves her to be a bigger threat to the prime minister, with 21 Knesset seats, than Ma'ariv, which gave Labor 17. The party currently has seven MKs, but was voted in with 13 in 2009.
The polls showed varying results for other parties. Both had Yisrael Beiteinu remaining the third-largest party, followed by Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and Shas. However, Yediot gave them 13, 13 and 10 seats, respectively, while Ma'ariv had Yisrael Beiteinu grow to 16 seats from its current 15, Lapid with 11 seats, and Shas gaining two seats to reach 11.
National-Religious parties Habayit Hayehudi and National Union, which currently have a combined seven seats and plan to run together in the next election, would grow to 10 seats, according to Yediot, but Ma'ariv showed drastically different results, with the parties shrinking to six spots in the Knesset.
Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Wednesday, July 18.
1) Coalition ends Given the disbanding of the Plesner Committee, tasked with coming up with a plan for drafting Chareidi men two weeks ago, the dissolution of Israel's unity government is less of a surprise than its formation. Whatever else is true about Israeli politics, Binyamin Netanyahu and Likud do not appear to have been hurt much by the failure to arrives at workable solution.
With the economy strong and domestic terrorism all but disappeared, few doubt Mr. Netanyahu’s re-election, even if the draft failure has hurt him; now, it seems clear he will run from the right, and less likely that he would take steps on settlements or the broader Palestinian conflict that might alienate conservative and religious voters. Far less clear is what will become of Kadima, a center-left party that broke away from the Likud in 2005 and has lost traction in recent months.
Kadima now returns to being the largest opposition party, one that had plummeting popularity before it joined the alliance. Netanyahu, on the other hand, enjoys strong approval ratings, and his Likud party is expected to easily win the next elections, scheduled for late 2013. Avraham Diskin, a political scientist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, said the coalition’s fate until then is likely to depend on the ultra-nationalist party of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who backs an aggressive conscription law that would also draft Israeli Arabs.
Barry Rubin notes some factors suggesting that Assad is running out of time:
There are three main factors that are making a rebel victory seem more likely. First, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with Turkey’s facilitation and U.S. coordination, are sending arms to the opposition. Second, the regime has been rushing the same trusted units around the country to put down upsurges. After many months of battle, these forces are getting tired and stretched thin. Third, President Bashar al-Assad really has nothing to offer the opposition. He won’t leave and he can’t share power. His strategy of brutal suppression and large-scale killing can neither make the opposition surrender nor wipe it out. Even if he kills civilians and demonstrators, the rebel military forces can pull back to attack another day.
In a video uploaded to YouTube on Monday, Free Syrian Army commander Riad al-Asaad ordered rebel forces in southern Syria and the rural part of Damascus to wage the final battle against Assad’s forces in the capital. Rebel forces in the northern and eastern parts of the country were told to go to Aleppo, the economic capital of Syria. Asaad’s statements reflect growing confidence among the rebels, who have destroyed a large number of armored vehicles and helicopters, killed thousands of soldiers while taking many others prisoner, striking a lethal blow to the Syrian army’s morale. Many Syrian army troops now appear to be exhausted, lacking resolve or belief in the justice of their cause. Desertions keep mounting and now include senior officers and circles close to the regime.
According to Palestinian sources, unidentified militiamen stopped the bus, kidnapped the Palestinian men and took them to an unknown destination. A few days later the Syrian authorities announced that they had discovered the bodies of the victims in a field. The men had been shot in the legs and chest before they were slaughtered like cattle, the Palestinian sources said. ... Some Palestinians blamed radical Islamic gangs operating in Syria, while others did not rule out the possibility that the murderers belonged to President Bashar Assad's security establishment.
Benny Avni wonders if Assad or someone else will use his chemical weapons:
Whether or not Assad survives the deadly 16-month rebellion against him, his long-ignored weapons of mass destruction may soon be in play. Whoever gets these terror weapons, and what they do with them, is a question to be handled by real world powers. It’s far beyond the capacity of the United Nations and Kofi Annan, to which America has so far subcontracted our Syria policy. Washington has reportedly detected trucks moving chemical munitions out of storage facilities in the area of Homs — a hotspot of the rebellion against Assad’s rule.
Jonathan Spyer writes about a report showing the cynicism of the Assad regime:
In an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, Nawaf Fares, a senior Syrian diplomat who defected to the rebel side asserted that the Assad regime was responsible for a major act of terror in Damascus, which was blamed at the time on al-Qaida. The former Syrian ambassador to Iraq left Syria last week. In the interview with Telegraph correspondent Ruth Sherlock, Fares claimed that the regime set up the bombing of a military intelligence headquarters in al-Qazzaz, ensuring that personnel at the base absented themselves minutes before the explosion, and that the only casualties were civilians.
"I would like to remind Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki: You know full well what Bashar Al-Assad did to Iraq and to the Iraqi people. Your security agencies know full well the extent of the damage and the killings – thousands of Iraqis were killed – at the hand of Bashar Al-Assad. "The Iraqi PM, the security agencies, and most of the Iraqi politicians are fully aware of this and have documentation of it. Personally, I have a lot of criticism toward the [Iraqi] prime minister for taking a stand that runs counter to the way things really are. [...] "He knows full well what Bashar Al-Assad did against him personally, against the Iraqi people in its entirety, and against the Shi'ites in particular."
While Ambassador Fares's charge in the Telegraph seems consistent with other actions taken by the regime, the interview transcribed by MEMRI he seems to be trying to distance himself from the regime.
The bomber, said by a security source to be a bodyguard assigned to Assad's inner circle, struck a meeting attended by ministers and senior security officials in the Syrian capital as battles raged within sight of the presidential palace. State television said Defence Minister Daoud Rajha and Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, the deputy defence minister, had been killed in a "terrorist bombing" and pledged to wipe out "criminal gangs". A Syrian security source confirmed Shawkat, 62, was killed and said intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar was wounded. State television said Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar had also been wounded in the blast.
That was quick. Kadima has decided to leave the government over their inability to get the Likud to commit to a law that would throw all the Haredim in jail for draft evasion.
Kadima was left with no choice but to leave the coalition after a failure to bridge the gaps between party its position and that of the Likud, Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz told faction members in a closed-door meeting Tuesday, party sources said.
Mofaz was unwilling to compromise on the issue, and therefore was left with no choice but to pull his party from the coalition, according to the source.
All but three Kadima MKs voted to leave the government. The three MKs were Avi Dichter, Otniel Schneller and Yulia Shamalov Berkovich.
Netanyahu held meetings with Kadima MKs on Tuesday in hopes of convincing them to remain in the coalition. Mofaz called a meeting of the faction at its Petah Tikva headquarters for 5 p.m. on Tuesday to discuss whether the party should leave the government.
Leading into the meeting, Mofaz on Tuesday afternoon rejected, what Netanyahu had characterized as a compromise offer, to resolve the Tal Law crisis.
According to Mofaz, the offer was that fifty percent of haredim between the ages of 18-23 would be drafted by the IDF and another 50% would be drafted into national service between the ages of 23-26.
Mofaz said that the proposal violates the ruling of the High Court on the issue, the principle of equal sharing of the burden of military service, is not proportional and does not meet the ultimate test of effectively resolving the issue.
Mofaz also noted that the proposal also did not include all draftable persons, and therefore, in reality, would merely maintain the unmanageable status quo.
A court may have acquitted him, but even Ehud K. Olmert understands that most Israelis wanted him out of the Prime Minister's chair long before he resigned. In fact, a current poll says that 70% of Israelis want Olmert to stay out of politics. And so, for now at least, Ehud K. Olmert is not coming back.
"I want to calm all those who are worrying. I have no intention of getting into political activity. I am not involved and do not intend to become involved," Olmert said at a Tel Aviv University speech.
Reaffirming himself as a Kadima man, Olmert asked that his name not be dragged into things he has no intention of associating with. The comment was a reference to a Haaretz report that he intended to team up with Yair Lapid, a report Lapid also denied on Thursday.
...
A Channel 10 television survey whose results were aired on Wednesday found that 70 percent of the public would oppose him re-entering politics, with only 22% in support.
This makes you wonder why Prime Minister Netanyahu is kissing up to Kadima chairman Shaul Mofaz. But then, I was wondering that already (and think I know the answer).
Likud 30 Labor 16 Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid) 15 Yisrael Beiteinu 12 Shas 7 National Union 7 Meretz 6 Kadima 5 United Torah Judaism 5 Jewish Home 4 Chadash 4
Arabs 10
A few points: Look for Likud to try to absorb Kadima so as to further dilute Moshe Feiglin's strength in the party. That becomes more and more likely as Kadima continues to founder in the polls.
Ehud Barak's Atzmaut party is wiped out. Look for Netanyahu to try to coop Barak into Likud and guarantee him a high position on the Knesset slate.
By traditional right-left breakdowns, the Right has 65 seats here (Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, National Union, United Torah Judaism and Jewish Home). But it is far more likely that Netanyahu will take Yesh Atid and Kadima into the coalition and that he will leave out National Union. If what's currently talked about as 'draft reform' goes through, Shas and United Torah Judaism are unlikely to go into any coalition headed by Netanyahu. Ever.
When we last left the Plesner Committee, its Haredi representative had just joined the Yisrael Beiteinu and HaBayit HaYehudi parties by resigning over the failure to include Arabs in the recommendations. Prime Minister Netanyahu disbanded the committee two days ago, but given that Plesner is now the be-all-and-end-all of the Kadima party, which is in a fight for its life, Plesner released his report on Wednesday anyway. Now, Shaul Mofaz is backing Plesner by threatening to withdraw from the coalition if Plesner's recommendations are not implemented. This is from the second link.
Water and Energy Minister Uzi Landau said that the committee’s choice not to deal with Arab enlistment brings “unequal equality.”
“It is strange that the enlistment of haredim, who make up eight percent [of those who don’t serve], is obvious, while national service by Arabs, who make up half of those who don’t serve, is seen as illegitimate,” Landau stated.
The Yisrael Beytenu minister also pointed out that the number of secular Jews who do not serve in the IDF is significantly higher than the amount of haredim.
“Everyone should learn these numbers,” Landau said. “Yisrael Beytenu will oppose any partial recommendations and all attempts to soften the blow, as Plesner and his friends did.”
Landau called for the Knesset not to miss a “historic opportunity” to bring all Israeli citizens into “the army of the people.”
MK Danny Danon (Likud) said that the Keshev Committee marks Kadima’s end, because rather than seek to end inequality, Plesner was more concerned with pleasing his party’s Arab voters.
“The people of Israel are sick of seeing Arabs sit back while a small percentage of the population carries the whole burden,” Danon stated. “All Israeli Arabs must do national service.”
Meretz leader Zehava Gal-On called the report “Kadima’s swan song,” saying that it is meant to “strengthen their pointless partnership with [Prime Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu.”
“Instead of proposing a bill to bring equality, the report is meant to purify discrimination,” she stated. “Mofaz is a ‘paper tiger’ who creates fake crises and threats to leave the coalition to keep Kadima alive.”
Yesh Atid founder Yair Lapid accused Plesner of giving “discounts” to different sectors in society, such as postponing haredi enlistment to age 23, preventing equality.
“This is an impractical outline that will prevent many from enlisting,” Lapid said. “Expanding the number of those who serve and requiring it of all 18 year olds, is necessary in order to stop Israeli society from breaking apart.”
The Haredi representatives weren't very happy with the recommendations either.
“There has never been such a pile of evil and maliciousness as this document,” said MK Moshe Gafni (United Torah Judaism). “Plesner’s personal position was [already] known to us, and his conclusions were known from the outset,” he added.
Plesner said during the press conference called to unveil the final document that in order to implement this principle, the document recommends personal fines for those refusing to serve; the withdrawal of state benefits they may have been entitled to such as housing benefits and municipal tax breaks; and the cancellation of the monthly NIS 850 state paid subsidy granted to full time yeshiva students.
In addition, anyone refusing to serve would get a criminal record.
According to a report in Maariv, spiritual leader of Shas Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef told the party’s political leader Interior Minister Eli Yishai that the imposition of personal sanctions on yeshiva students would lead to Shas quitting the coalition.
UTJ Chiarman MK Yisrael Eichler warned that Israel could experience sectarian conflict similar to that of its neighbors if conscription is not ended and a professional army established in its stead.
But Kadima seems determined to push ahead, proving once and for all that they hate Haredim more than any other party in the Knesset. Kadima party chairman Shaul Mofaz on Wednesday asserted that the implementation of the Plesner Report is a condition for his party staying in the government.
"The ball is in Prime Minister [Binyamin Netanyahu's] hands and he has a matter of days," Mofaz added, declaring that "the Plesner plan is the only plan."
In his report published earlier Wednesday morning, Plesner recommended that 80 percent of ultra-Orthodox participate in national or military service within four years and that personal and criminal sanctions be imposed on those who do not serve.
Although Netanyahu dismissed the Plesner committee earlier this week after a number of its members quit in protest of various issues, sources close to Netanyahu said Tuesday that he would nonetheless use its recommendations as the basis for a new law.
While offering several tracks of service for haredi men, the report recommends that service be defined as a personal responsibility, and that failing to complete it result in criminal proceedings and/or a fine and the loss of potential government benefits.
The report further suggests limiting the number of haredi men who can receive "permanent [student]" exemptions from civil or military service to 1,500.
In addition, it contains a recommendation to shorten the service required of haredi men to 24 months. Currently, men are required to serve three years in the IDF. A civil service track would be shortened to 18 months.
Mofaz seems to forget that his party went into the coalition because poll after poll showed it being wiped out by elections. Maybe he thinks that by waving a red flag at the Haredim, he can draw more votes from other secular parties. I doubt it. Labor seems to be coming back, and both they and Meretz have a longer and richer history of baiting the Haredim than Kadima has.
But we could yet have the shortest national unity government evah....
When Prime Minister Netanyahu took Kadima into his coalition, most pundits thought that one of the main purposes was to create national unity for an attack on Iran. That hasn't worked out very well. It seems that Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz is undermining Netanyahu in Washington (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).
But instead Mofaz has publicly contradicted the whole thrust of Netanyahu’s strategy by downgrading the threat from Iran and suggesting that a peace settlement with the Palestinians is actually more important.
The role of Mofaz in suggesting a more moderate Israeli policy line on Iran is at least in part the result of more senior Israeli national security figures speaking out publicly against the Netayahu threat of war on Iran, according to Yossi Alpher, a former head of the Jaffee Center for Security Studies at Tel Aviv University and a special adviser to then prime minister Ehud Barak in 2000.
In April, both former Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin and the present Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) chief of staff joined former Mossad chief Meir Dagan in contradicting the official Israeli position that Iran was bent on obtaining nuclear weapons.
Alpher believes that the decision to bring Mofaz into the government reflects a policy adjustment by Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak to the views of the Israeli national security elite.
Alpher told IPS in an interview he believes the criticism by those senior military and intelligence officials of Netayahu’s Iran policy had “reached a critical mass”.
“At some point it registered with Netanyahu and Barak,” said Alpher.
Netanyahu and Barak wanted to show the national security chiefs that they were being listened to by bringing someone who reflects their views into the leadership circle, Alpher said.
The result of that decision may be a much deeper shift in policy toward Iran than Netanyahu and Barak wish to acknowledge.
Ever since late 2011, the impression of a heightened threat of an Israeli attack on Iran has been central to the crisis atmosphere over the issue. It has been the premise on which Israel has tried to reduce progressively Obama’s freedom of action on Iran with the ultimate objective of maximising the likelihood of an eventual U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
The strategy of pressure on Obama was to be carried out through a combination of Israeli demands regarding U.S. diplomatic positions on Iran’s nuclear programme and pressure from the U.S. Congress at the prompting of the right-wing pro-Israel lobby organisation AIPAC, which operates in close consultation with the Likud government.
The tandem of Israeli and Congressional targets of AIPAC would push for U.S. demands in the negotiations with Iran that would ensure their failure.
Netanyahu would then seek to force a shift in Obama’s red line on the Iranian nuclear programme from evidence of intent to build nuclear weapons to evidence of determination to maintain a weapons nuclear capability. Allies of Netanyahu have suggested that the pressure on Obama to adopt a new red line would peak during the 2012 presidential election campaign.
...
But as the third round talks with Iran were ending in Moscow, Mofaz, who was in Washington to consult with U.S. officials on the Palestinian issue, departed publicly and dramatically from Netanyahu’s policy on Iran.
In a speech at the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy Jun. 19, Mofaz startled the audience by suggesting that the greatest threat to Israel did not come from Iran, as Netanyahu has insisted since becoming prime minister, but from its conflict with the Palestinians. Referring to the Palestinian issue – not the Iranian nuclear programme – Mofaz warned, “Time is not in favour of Israel” and added, “This year – next year – we have to decide.”
Mofaz sounded more like the Obama administration than the Netanyahu government on the question of an Israeli military option. “We should ask ourselves how much we would delay the Iran programme – for how many months, for many years,” he said, “and what will happen in our region on the day after.”
Even more significant, however, was his comment on the “time limit” on tolerance of Iran’s nuclear programme as being when “the Iranian leader will take the last step to having a bomb.” Mofaz thus appeared to align himself with Obama’s red line rather than the Netanyahu and Barak position, which is that Iran must not be allowed to have much more of its enrichment capabilities in an underground site protected from an Israeli strike.
On Sunday night, Israel Radio reported that Kadima is threatening to withdraw from the government over drafting Haredim. A Likud minister commented that they don't need Kadima and didn't bring them into the government so that they could start issuing threats to withdraw. Kadima has no ministers other than Mofaz, and therefore Netanyahu has very little hold over most of the party if push comes to shove in a Knesset vote. I believe he should let them go. They are more trouble than they are worth.
MK's from Shaul Mofaz's Kadima party are angry with him because he did not object to the construction of 851 new Jewish housing units in Judea and Samaria. They are particularly peeved that he did not object to the construction of homes in the Jewish stronghold of Kiryat Arba, outside of Hebron.
When the plan to build 851 housing units in the West Bank was announced Wednesday night, Mofaz objected to the plan to build in Kiryat Arba while acquiescing to build in the [settlement] blocs [near the green line]. Netanyahu initially removed Kiryat Arba from the list of building projects at Mofaz’s request, but the prime minister put it back on the list later that night after protests from the Right.
Mofaz faced criticism for not torpedoing the move not only from rebel MKs who want to leave Kadima and those who backed Mofaz’s rival Tzipi Livni in the March 27 leadership race but also from legislators who backed him.
“I support Mofaz but his silence on Kiryat Arba is very grave,” MK Shai Hermesh said.
“Kadima should have been criticizing this decision all day. Instead of getting credit as a moderate prime minister for abiding by the court’s decision on the Ulpana outpost, by building in Kiryat Arba, Bibi is once again absorbing international criticism on an issue that not only does the international community oppose but also his coalition partners.”
MK Shlomo Molla, who is eager to split from Kadima, went further. He said that he and other Kadima MKs would demand explanations from Mofaz at Monday’s Kadima faction meeting.
“Mofaz should have urged the prime minister to cancel the plan,” Molla said. “I am so angry at my party that no one is protesting. It is sad how irrelevant Kadima has become on such an important issue. It is intolerable that we have become spare change in a right-wing coalition.”
Yeah. After all, they were just so effective in three years in the opposition....
Looking forward to the next election, and the end of Kadima. It cannot come too soon.
Kadima MK: 'Human rights groups' would like to transfer Haredim and 'settlers,' but keep infiltrators
Now that Tzipi Livni is gone, some of her former cohorts in the Kadima party are saying things that might not have been tolerated when Zippity was in charge. Take, for example, Knesset Member Yulia Shamalov Berkovich.
If given the opportunity, some Israeli human rights groups "would be the first to put haredim and settlers on buses and transfer them," Knesset Member Yulia Shamalov Berkovich said Tuesday during a heated House Committee debate of on the influx of foreign migrants into the country.
"Those hypocrites," the Kadima member said of human rights activists who are aiding foreign migrants, "I would imprison them all for incitement and for pitting Jews against Jews."
...
Shamalov Berkovich later told Ynet, "I toured south Tel Aviv and witnessed the deplorable conditions in which the infiltrators live. It pains me a lot, and I ask – how did we reach a situation whereby in the Jewish State of Israel people (foreign migrants) are living like animals?
"There are MKs from the left who speak terribly of haredim and settlers. This is incitement and extreme self-hatred. They would gladly transfer ultra-Orthodox and settlers and keep the infiltrators here. I want to tell the human rights groups that most (of the infiltrators) are not refugees, they came here to seek work," she told Ynet.
According to Shamalov Berkovich, the human rights groups are forcing Israelis to "illegally employ infiltrators," adding that they are "compromising the security of the state and its citizens and should be locked up."
The MK said the solution was to conduct negotiations with the infiltrators' home countries and have them agree to absorb the migrants. She stressed that acts of violence against foreign migrants are a "horrible mistake."
Anyone who thinks Moshe Feiglin had nothing to do with the cancellation of the early elections and Likud's deal with Kadima might want to consider this: Eight Likud ministers and Knesset Speaker Ruby Rivlin attended Moshe Feiglin's son's wedding on Sunday night.
In the ultimate sign that Feiglin is no longer considered controversial, no less than eight Likud ministers as well as Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin attended the wedding of Feiglin's son Aryeh and his bride Todayah on Sunday.
Vice Premier Silvan Shalom, Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz, Education Minister Gideon Sa'ar, Communications Minister Moshe Kahlon, Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz, Environment Minister Gilad Erdan, Diaspora Affairs and Public Diplomacy Minister Yuli Edelstein, and Culture and Sports Minister Limor Livnat all attended to honor Feiglin.
Livnat was the most surprising attendee because she had vocally bashed Feiglin in the past. Even Netanyahu reached out to Feiglin last month, calling him to express condolences when Feiglin's father died.
"No one questions our allegiance to the Likud anymore,” Feiglin said. “Everyone sees that it is much more natural that the national camp in Likud decides races in the party than non-Zionist Arab voters making the difference in Kadima and Labor.”
Sorry guys, but much as I wish this were not so, I still believe that Netanyahu's intent is to keep Feiglin out of the Knesset and to diminish his influence in the Likud by merging Kadima back into the party.
But okay, Livnat attending is a big surprise. She's very much a Netanyahu loyalist.
If I could have picked one senior Likud minister who was most likely to criticize the new unity government, this is the one I would have picked: Moshe "Boogie" Yaalon.
“When you look at the latest political move, you definitely need to examine its material aspects and its negative consequences,” Ya’alon said. “Developments of this kind definitely do not encourage some people to be involved politically and not even come to vote. Because people zigzag, and a commitment is not a commitment and a declaration is not a declaration.”
And there are critics on Kadima's side as well, although one has to wonder what they would have said had we gone to elections and left them with only 10 MK's.
On Friday, Kadima MK Nino Abesadse sharply criticized Mofaz for "joining a Bolshevik coalition."
“I was in opposition and I followed the rules. I respected them,” Abesadse said, adding, “But here, this morning, after what happened this week, I feel I am not obliged to respect the rules of the game anymore.”
I'm a critic too, because I view the unity government as Netanyahu's ticket to veer left. It remains to be seen whether he will do that. In the meantime, at least with respect to Iran, the unity government has its advantages.
Under the agreement, Kadima will join Netanyahu's government and commit to supporting its policies through the end of its term in late 2013. Mofaz is expected to be appointed deputy prime minister, as well as minister without portfolio. Mofaz will also serve as a member of the security cabinet, and Kadima members will serve as chairmen of the Knesset foreign affairs and defense committees, the economics committee, and any others that are agreed upon by both sides. Chairwoman of the Israel Labor Party, Shelly Yacimovich, will become opposition leader instead of Mofaz. The process is also likely to affect Yair Lapid's new party, Yesh Atid – it will have to wait another year and a half for elections to the 19th Knesset.
Finally, the fact that this political move took most Israeli pundits by “surprise” demonstrates the degree to which Netanyahu’s strategic and political skills are underestimated and misrepresented. Ideological and personal factors have blinded analysts and foreign political leaders, including heads of state, to the caution and deliberation with which Netanyahu has governed in the past three years. There are also important lessons to be learned from this dimension.
In a brief statement issued Tuesday morning, Mr. Netanyahu, who moved closer to the center as a result of the accord, said: “A broad national unity government is good for the security, for the economy, for the people of Israel.”
Netanyahu did not move "closer to the center" as a result of this agreement. The agreement demonstrates that Netanyahu is closer to the center of Israeli politics than the New York Times usually acknowledges.
In a statement issued after the deal was struck, Netanyahu said, “Unity restores stability. A broad national unity government is good for security, good for the economy and good for the people of Israel.” Opinion surveys had indicated that Likud would win early elections handily, and Netanyahu had pledged to use that likely victory to form what he called a “broad coalition,” one that at least some of the nation’s weak opposition parties would expected to join eagerly. The deal forged early Tuesday, which gives the governing coalition 94 of 120 seats in parliament, allowed Netanyahu to quickly deliver on that promise without campaigning. “The new Netanyahu government is made of one hundred tons of solid concrete,” political analyst Yossi Verter wrote for the Haaretz newspaper, adding that the prime minister was “certainly worthy of the title ‘king of the political system.’ ”
Yuval Zellner: Winner Yuval Who? We asked the same thing. Zellner just replaced Livni in the Knesset. Until this morning, he was going to go down in history as one of the shortest serving MKs (who would never get a second chance at it either). Now he gets a chance to serve.
Don't bet on the election system being changed - something that comes up every time there is a large coalition. Likud - or a Likud merged with Kadima - are the only parties with any incentive to do that right now. No one else is strong enough. The only way we will change to direct election of Knesset members is if we get a single party winning a majority, or two parties that can form a coalition by themselves. That's not the case now.
Where Netanyahu gains the most is on freedom of action with Iran. President Obama isn't going to be able to do much to impede Netanyahu before November 6th if a strong coalition 90 plus MK's out of 120 votes for an attack.
A number of people were trying to figure out why Netanyahu was calling for early elections, and a consensus of sorts was that it would give him more flexibility in deciding on a military option for Iran since Likud was well ahead in the polls. If that is true, this unity government is even more effective than any election results could have been in giving Israel internal political strength should it make that decision.
The adding of former IDF chief of staff Mofaz to the cabinet confirms another emergent Netanyahu pattern – namely, his preference for gathering around himself former military men whose undoubted professional skills are accompanied by a notable lack of political ones. Defense Minister Ehud Barak is the senior representative of this type. Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon also exemplifies it. Mofaz is the third addition to the list. ... But though accurately seen in Israel as a mediocre politician, the Iranian-born Mofaz was a highly competent soldier and officer, and a relatively successful IDF chief of staff.
Though most foreign observers will jump to the conclusion that the Tehran-born Mofaz will provide Netanyahu with the internal backing needed to attack Iranian nuclear targets sometime in the next year, most Israelis are thinking more about the possibility of the largest secular parties now being able to unite to deal with question of military service for the ultra-Orthodox. This ought to make clear to even the dimmest of American observers of the Middle East — especially those so-called “liberal Zionists” who harbor unrealistic ambitions to remake the Jewish state in the image of American Jewry —not only the strength of Netanyahu’s ascendancy but how little the left counts in Israeli politics anymore.
Netanyahu's dirty trick or Netanyahu's brilliant move?
The one night I close the computer by 1:30 am, the big news breaks at 2:30.... Prime Minister Netanyahu cut a deal during the night with Kadima party chairman Shaul Mofaz to add Kadima to the coalition. Let's start with why it happened and then we'll look at the implications.
Prime Minister Netanyahu did not want new elections, but felt forced into them by pressures regarding the Tal Law (the invalidated law that allowed yeshiva students to defer army service), and the prospect of the Supreme Court forcing the government to dismantle Jewish towns in Judea and Samaria, which would have forced Netanyahu to confront the right in his own coalition. But when he saw at the Likud convention on Sunday that he was going to see his own party lurch sharply right (a process Netanyahu has been fighting for the last four years), Netanyahu felt he had to act.
Mofaz did not want to go to elections because it would have seen Kadima shrink from 29 seats to 14 or less according to current polls.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak did not want elections because polls showed his party would not make the minimum to stay in the Knesset.
The biggest losers in this are the Labor party, which stood to jump from five seats to 15, and Yair Lapid, whose new party stood to start out at 11 seats.
The current parties in the coalition - Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, United Torah Judaism and Jewish Home - are staying put for now. Yisrael Beiteinu is in danger of its leader being indicted. Given that Shas and UTJ are staying in, it seems unlikely that Yisrael Beiteinu will get the 'equal service' they are seeking to force all the yeshiva students into the army, and in fact, there is word this morning that Netanyahu has promised the two ultra-Orthodox parties that everything regarding the IDF will be done cooperatively.
Shas gains because it keeps Aryeh Deri from returning to the Knesset. Israel Radio reports that Shas is likely to go along with whatever replaces the Tal Law, while United Torah Judaism is likely to leave the coalition if the replacement of the Tal Law is not to its liking (as is likely to be the case). Well, maybe. I don't see what UTJ has to gain by leaving the coalition.
The Ulpana neighborhood in Beit El is unlikely to be destroyed as the Supreme Court has decreed. The country overwhelmingly opposes its destruction, and either the Supreme Court will 'reconsider' or it will face the reality of a government coalition that will pass a law circumventing their ruling (as the Knesset is entitled to do). That's the attraction that keeps Jewish Home in the coalition.
Aside from Labor and Lapid, another potential loser is Moshe Feiglin, whom Netanyahu is trying to expel from the Likud. Netanyahu's best chance of winning that battle is to fold Kadima back into the Likud. Will that happen? That depends on the egos involved.
Don't bet on the election system being changed - something that comes up every time there is a large coalition. Likud - or a Likud merged with Kadima - are the only parties with any incentive to do that right now. No one else is strong enough. The only way we will change to direct election of Knesset members is if we get a single party winning a majority, or two parties that can form a coalition by themselves. That's not the case now.
The budget seems likely to pass, which was another problem Netanyahu was trying to resolve.
And Iran? That's probably where Netanyahu has the most freedom of action, at least until November 6. Obama can't do anything to stop him if a coalition of 94 MK's out of 120 decides to attack, with another 15 supporting it from the opposition.
Those are my first thoughts on the drama that happened last night. I think it's a dirty trick against all the losers described here, but I also think it's a brilliant move on Netanyahu's part. We'll see how it plays out - I suspect they won't be as dramatic as a lot of people this morning think they are going to be.
The heck with Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu has apparently decided to go to early elections.
As many of you know, one of the parting gifts we got from retiring Supreme Court Chief Justice Dorit Beinish was the court's declaring the Tal Law - the law which legalized the deferral of IDF service by yeshiva students - unconstitutional. The law becomes void on August 1, and everyone has been waiting to see what happens to it.
Over the weekend, Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman, who has proposed a bill that purports to 'equalize' army service, said that his party, the second largest in the coalition, is no longer bound by the coalition agreement, because the coalition has not dealt with most of the thorny religion/state issues that the party wants changed. And three opposition parties - Labor, Meretz and Kadima - are all submitting bills to dissolve the Knesset.
Israel Radio has just reported (2:00 am) that Prime Minister has summoned the members of a coalition that is pushing for universal army service to an 'urgent' meeting at 9:00 am - before Sunday's cabinet session. According to members of the coalition, the meeting means that Netanyahu has decided to play ball with them 'even at the risk of new elections.' And a senior member of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party says that the real reason for dissolving the Knesset - which he also thinks will happen - is an attempt to cut the budget.
The Shas member said expected budget cuts are the real reason for dismantling Israel's governing coalition, rather than talk about drafting ultra-Orthodox Israelis into the military.
Members of another coalition faction, United Torah Judaism, are also preparing for early elections. The party's chairman, Knesset Member Yaakov Litzman, said he doesn't know when elections will be held, but added that "we are preparing for every possibility."
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
