Oh my: Look who's likely to be the swing vote if the government decides to expel Jews from 'settlements'
Gil Hoffman reports that despite the Knesset being split 61-59 in favor of the Right, if a plan to expel Jews from 'settlements' comes to a vote, the Left believes that it will carry the day. The Shas party (and maybe United Torah Judaism as well) are eager for the chance to take revenge on Naftali Bennett for excluding them from the government.
“The haredi parties will be partners in the peace process,” Hatnua MK
Amram Mitzna told the haredi radio station Kol Chai this week.
“A majority can be created in the Knesset for evacuating settlements.”
Mitzna
said haredi MKs have told him they cannot wait to take revenge against
Bayit Yehudi leader Naftali Bennett for blocking their parties from
entering the coalition. He said he could also see a scenario whereby
haredi parties join the current coalition at Bayit Yehudi’s expense when
the diplomatic talks with the Palestinians progress.
“The
priorities of the haredim have changed,” Mitzna said. “They say they
aren’t in anyone’s pocket anymore. They know the Right has always
betrayed them.”
I would not believe everything Mitzna says, but it is known that the Haredim were furious at being excluded from the coalition and they (correctly) place the blame for that on the deal between Bennett and Yair Lapid. While they expected that kind of behavior from Lapid, they did not expect it from Bennett, and that's why most of the fury is directed at him and his party (that's also playing out in the current mayoral campaign in Beit Shemesh by the way).
But with respect to Shas, there's another aspect that makes this story plausible. Aryeh Deri (pictured at top), who returned to the party in the last election after a lengthy suspension due to a bribery conviction, has always been a Leftist at heart, and he now has the ear of Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef much more closely than does the more Right-leaning Eli Yishai. It's more than plausible that Deri will convince Rav Yosef to order Shas' MK's to vote in favor of an expulsion.
The Right is trying to hold on to the Haredi vote.
The Right also understands the importance of the haredim and their
votes in the Knesset. Construction and Housing Minister Uri Ariel (Bayit
Yehudi) said Wednesday that he would advance building projects for the
haredi sector not only in Betar Illit and Modi’in Illit on the Green
Line but also in Tel Zion, a haredi neighborhood of the Kochav Ya’acov
settlement north of Jerusalem that is not considered part of a
settlement bloc.
“It is wrong to look at haredim as second-class citizens,” Ariel said. “They deserve building, too.”
But not, apparently, the same funding for their yeshivoth and schools and other educational institutions that the rest of the country gets, and certainly not special concessions from the army. At least in the view of Ariel and his party. While the Haredim have the advantage that the vast majority of their constituents who live in Judea and Samaria live along the green line, something tells me that their votes won't be sold for housing starts that may never be completed. But they might be sold for something better than has been offered to them on the 'sharing the burden' front.
Netanyahu tricked the Haredim into putting themselves outside the coalition?
If this story at Arutz Sheva is correct, the Jewish Home (Bayit Yehudi) - Yesh Atid pact between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid came into being because of things Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Haredi Shas party. And if it's correct, Netanyahu is about to sell the Haredim down the river, as he may have planned to do all along.
"During the election campaign, in the course of the last months and
weeks, we received ill winds from the Likud, which said that there is no
intention to include us in the government. We were expressly told this,
from within Netanyahu's bureau," the senior figures said.
"In our distress, we turned to one of the heads of Shas, Aryeh Deri.
This plea was made five weeks before the elections, and after the
elections as well. We begged for full cooperation but Deri refused to
meet with us. There were countless telephone calls, direct and indirect.
Deri told us that he had checked with the Prime Minister's Bureau and
he was told, there, that that there is no intention of adding Bayit
Yehudi to the coalition. 'Bayit Yehudi's place will be in the
Opposition,' Deri was told outright by Netanyahu's bureau."
According to the senior Bayit Yehudi figures, Deri and his men told
Bayit Yehudi – "Since we were told specifically that Netanyahu has no
intention of adding you to the coalition, we have no desire to create a
religious bloc with you. What do I gain by an alliance with Bayit
Yehudi? That is not my war to fight," Deri said.
Two days after the elections, Netanyahu told Deri again that Bayit
Yehudi will not be in the government, the senior figures said. "Deri
told us, 'I cannot solve your distress vis-à-vis the prime minister,'
and since then he did not get back to us. Deri basically threw us under a
bus. So we had to turn to Yair Lapid. Once the hareidim heard that a
'pact' was formed with Lapid, they asked to meet us. Now they are
creating the false picture that we abandoned them. We regret the lies
and half-truths that they have been spreading in the last few days. This
is the true story."
This story on the Hebrew side of the website claims that Shas has admitted that it's true. The story quotes a report in the Hebrew daily Maariv that says that in their meeting with Netanyahu on Sunday, the Shas leaders complained to Netanyahu "[W]e didn't make a bloc with Jewish Home so as not to anger you, and because of that we will now remain in opposition. Our rabbis told us 'don't make a mistake [by forming a bloc with Jewish Home] because this is the way that the Prime Minister wants it,' and look where we are because of that."
It could be that Netanyahu really did want to keep Jewish Home in opposition because of his wife's personal animosity for Bennett. If so, he has put his wife's feelings ahead of his duty to the country, and he ought to be forced out.
But there's a more insidious interpretation. Netanyahu may have wanted all along to be 'forced' not to have the Haredim in the government because he wanted to pursue the 'secular agenda.'
Jewish Home is now claiming that they will protect the Haredi yeshivoth, thus putting them behind a system in which they don't believe. This is from the first link.
The senior figures deny vehemently that the understandings with Lapid
will hurt the Torah world. "There will be no damage to the Torah world.
We will not let military police drag yeshiva students from their
'stenders' [the stands, usually wooden, that hold the holy books open in
study halls]. We will make sure of that. The Torah world is an eternal
and sacred value for us, too."
Maybe they figured out that if there's absolute equality there's no more shortened army service for hesder?
One other thing: Shas has to be wondering why they brought Aryeh Deri back. Deri was the party leader in the '90's and the early '00's until he was convicted of bribery and banned from the Knesset for ten years. Deri brought them no more seats than having Eli Yishai as party leader. I'm not convinced that Yishai would have misread the situation as much as the more dovish Deri did (doesn't that sound like Deri's wishful thinking - a coalition between the Haredim and the Left?). And now Deri appears to have thrown away their (and United Torah Judaism's) chance to be in the government.
Prime Minister and Likud Party Chairman Binyamin Netanyahu told
Co-Chairmen Ariel Atias, Aryeh Der'i and Eli Yishai of the
Sephardic-hareidi Shas party, Sunday afternoon that he is interested in
having Shas in the government but current political conditions tied his
hands. Shas party sources said the only way things could change would be
if Netanyahu could convince Labor Chairwoman Shelley Yechimovich to
join the government, which would allow the hareidi parties.
The
prime minister was expected to meet Chairman Naftali Bennett of Habayi
Hayehudi (Jewish Home-New National Religious Party) Sunday afternoon,
in a final effort to get Bennett to break with alliance partner Yesh
Atid, whose chairman, Yair Lapid, is opposed to joining a government
with the hareidi parties. Member of Knesset Uri Ariel, Chairman of
Habayit Hayehudi's negotiating team, said the party expects a picture of
where Netanyahu is headed after the conclusion of the meeting, adding
that the prime minister could reach a coalition agreement in a matter of
days.
And Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) thought they were attacked in this election? Just wait until the next one.
Maybe I should not have been so quick to dismiss Limor Livnat. Maybe she was right after all.
You will recall that in the Liveblog, I dismissed Livnat's claim that the Likud will get two more seats as wishful thinking. But as of 2:00 am, with about 57% of the actual votes counted, the Likud has risen to 33 seats. Jewish Home has dropped to 11.
That's a net gain of one for the Right. But what's even more shocking is where the other two seats came from that brought it from 61 to 64. As of 2:00 am, United Torah Judaism, the party of the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox Jews, is up to 8 seats.
Labor has dropped to 16 and Meretz has dropped to 5.
If these results hold up, Netanyahu does have an option for a coalition without Lapid, without Livni and without Shelly.
And the radio made a point of letting us know this evening that while Lapid may have been Netanyahu's first call, Netanyahu also spoke to two of Shas' leadership triumvirate (Eli Yishai and Aryeh Deri) and that Netanyahu will be meeting with Yishai on Thursday. And Netanyahu also spoke to UTJ's Yaakov Litzman. And Yishai assured Shas' voters this evening that Shas will be part of any coalition.
Of course, it could still end up being Lapid rather than Bennett with Shas and UTJ if Lapid would agree to that. Lapid can really sit on either side of the aisle, and his concerns are mostly domestic.
Hmmm.
UPDATE 2:42 AM
I should add that this might not hold up.
Kadima is now over the minimum and if that holds (it's expected to) they will get two seats.
One of the Arab parties is below the threshold right now but is expected to make it above the threshold and those seats will come at someone's expense. Whose expense remains to be seen.
Knesset pushing to annex Jewish towns in Judea and Samaria
The leaders of four Knesset factions sent a letter to Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday asking him to consider annexing the Jewish towns in Judea and Samaria, and to sanction the 'Palestinian Authority' for its behavior at the United Nations. Three of the four factions behind the letter are from within Netanyahu's coalition, and one of them is his own party.
The letter, written by caucus leaders Likud faction chairman Ze'ev Elkin and MK Arye Eldad (National Union), as well as the faction chairmen of Shas, National Union and Habayit Hayehudi said that sanctions will show the PA that "Israel will not agree to be its punching bag."
"Israel will defend its interests, and turn the crisis into an opportunity," the letter reads. "Any diplomatic attack will be turned into a victory."
The Land of Israel Caucus called for a gradual annexation of settled areas in Judea and Samaria, as well as increased building and development of the region. The letter also demanded that any Palestinian construction in Area C be prevented, and that funds no longer be transferred to the PA.
"The Palestinian commitment to avoid unilateral steps is the only thing Israel got in return for all it has given up since the Oslo Accords," the MKs wrote. "The PA's unilateral bid for recognition of statehood in the UN is a clear violation of the agreements, which for the last 18 years cost us a high price."
The letter also explains that any country that cooperates with the PA in its statehood bid may no longer serve as a mediator in future peace talks.
If Netanyahu does not take such steps, the MKs wrote, he will "encourage the Palestinians to continue acting against [Israel] in the international arena."
"The international damage to Israel from the UN vote is much smaller than the damage Israel may inflict on itself if we do not follow the principle of 'if they give, they will get, if they don't give, they will not get,'" the letter reads, referring to a well-known quote from Netanyahu's first term as prime minister. "This principle has saved Israel from deteriorating into the abyss opened by the engineers of the Oslo Accords."
I'm all in favor. The fact that the 'Palestinians' have paid no price for their behavior - and that the world continues to oppose Israeli construction in Judea and Samaria - is absurd.
Former Shas leader and convicted felon Aryeh Deri announced on Wednesday that he is planning to return to politics. But not with Shas.
Speaking at a panel at the three-day Presidential Conference in Jerusalem, Deri said he plans to run with a party that won't be religious, but at the same time he would like to run with a party that includes Sephardics because "we were discriminated against."
"This time I want to use my experience to build unity," he said, adding that he learned from his experience in politics that "you have to think things through and not jump into thing."
The former Shas leader said he will not lead the religious party again.
He also rejected the possibility of becoming prime minister, stating that he wasn't built for it and doesn't have "delusions of grandeur."
Speaking on why he wants to return to politics, Deri said "[Former prime minister Yitzhak] Rabin told me in 1992 that there can't be peace without peace amongst our own people. I am going into politics because I want to unite the people together and not divide them."
He added, "I am pro-peace negotiations. Things have changed since I was in the government. I am concerned we will be hit by rockets if we withdraw [from the West Bank] again. There is a question of what risks we should take when responsibility will be on my shoulders."
In case you're wondering, Shas doesn't believe Deri will run as the head of a non-religious party, nor that he will run without permission of his mentor, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, who is also Shas' mentor. We will see whether that permission is given. Meanwhile, Kadima is hoping that Deri will siphon off votes from the Right and bring them to the Left.
Deri has been out of politics for several years now due to a bribery conviction.
Oh - and then he came up with this, which simply made my jaw drop when I saw it on Twitter:
Deri also commented on Israel's relations with Syria, emphasizing that "We missed our on a chance for peace with Syria in 1993. It is wrong to think the price would be any different any other time in the next 50 years."
Yeah, right.... There isn't going to be peace with Syria. Certainly not with the Assad's regardless of what Israel is willing to pay.
Former Shas Chairman Aryeh Deri, who has been out of politics for several years due to his conviction for a 'crime involving moral turpitude' (bribery), would take seven seats - five of them from the Right - if he were to start his own political party, according to a Dahaf poll.
The dream of the Left is that a party headed by Aryeh Deri, who was previously in the Shas party, would grab enough right wing voters to enable him to put the left into power. Deri is friends with Chaim Ramon and critics say he is devoted to the "holy trinity" (me, myself and I).
For those basing their plans on the results of the poll a word of warning: these results are before any effort has been made to warn that a vote for the Deri party is a vote to bring the left to power, leave the Golan, divide Jerusalem etc. Israel's recent political history is full of people that Yediot Ahronot promoted with favorable Dahaf polls that puttered out at the real poll on election day.
Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Achronot the weeks of 25 February 2011 and published on 25 February 2011
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets]. 28 30 [28] Kadima lead by Livni 21 23 [27] Likud 15 16 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu 08 10 [11] Shas 07 07 [13] Labor 06 06 [03] Meretz 06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah 05 05 [04] Nat'l Union 03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP 12 12 [11] Arab parties 02 02 [---] Green party 00 00 [---] Ehud Barak Atzmaut 07 --- [---] Party headed by Aryeh Deri
I know that those of you in the West are probably horrified that a man who has been convicted of bribery could actually return to the Knesset and gain that many votes. Welcome to Israel.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
