Delusions of grandeur
Naftali Bennett seems to have gotten a bit ahead of himself, believing that he and his Jewish Home party are
serious challengers for Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party.
"Liberman is afraid of [Bayit Yehudi chairman Naftali] Bennett after
seeing in the polls that he was losing support among right-wing voters,"
a Bayit Yehudi source told Army Radio.
Liberman told Army Radio
on Sunday that "even if there are disagreements, one cannot declare
somebody an anti-Semite or an unfair mediator. I'm against lashing out."
The
foreign minister went on to say that he would willingly move out of his
home in the West Bank settlement of Nokdim if it meant securing a peace
deal with the Palestinians and ensuring national unity.
"These
are things that I've written and said in the past, back in 2004 and also
during election campaigns," the minister told Army Radio. "I am in
favor of a two-state solution and I support [Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu's] Bar-Ilan speech."
"Yisrael Beytenu supports an agreement, but not at any price," Liberman said.
Bayit Yehudi officials accused Liberman of "veering to the left of Tzipi Livni."
"It's
obvious that [Liberman] is basking in the glow of American praise
thanks to his concessions," a Bayit Yehudi official said. "We will
continue to look out for Israel's security, and we'll do without these
compliments."
Lieberman may actually just be angling for a meeting with US Secretary of State John FN Kerry. He hasn't had one yet, and he only had one or two meetings with Hillary Clinton (one of which ended in an icy Washington press conference) during his first term in office. Lieberman is looking to be taken seriously.
As to Bennett, as long as Lieberman is running with the Likud, he's going to continue to survive. The question is whether Netanyahu will be running with the Likud in the next election. Aside from Netanyahu, only one of the top 20 in Likud's last election list supports a 'two-state solution.'
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Binyamin Netanyahu, Jewish Home party, Likud party, Naftali Bennett, Yisrael Beiteinu
Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu to split?
Against Prime Minister Netanyahu's wishes, his Likud party's central committee seems likely to vote to
split from Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party.
"If there's a proposal to break up the partnership, it will pass," [Deputy Defense Minister Danny] Danon said.
Danon
said there could end up being secret-ballot vote of central committee
members next Thursday. That could result in a proposal to separate from
Yisrael Beytenu passing by an even wider margin, which Netanyahu could
find more difficult to ignore.
The central committee, which is
more hawkish than the general Likud membership, is also expected to pass
proposals backing annexing Judea and Samaria and endorsing Jewish
prayer on the Temple Mount.
But unlike what had been expected
previously, the committee will not vote on a proposal that would make it
harder for Netanyahu to get elected to a third consecutive term as
Likud leader.
There will also not be a vote yet on a controversial
proposal to prevent Likud politicians from running for re-election if
they vote against convention decisions in the cabinet or Knesset.
Two comments. First, the guy you have to thank for this is Moshe Feiglin who, although he still has not managed to unseat Netanyahu, has succeeded in pushing more right-wing candidates to the forefront of both the central committee and the Likud's Knesset delegation.
And second, for those of you who are looking for Netanyahu to pull an Ariel Sharon and leave the Likud to start his own party, it won't happen. Sharon had enough of his own loyalists in the Likud in 2005 to take a sizable portion of the faction with him. Netanyahu is one of only 2-3 Likud MK's who backs a 'Palestinian state' and is unlikely to take more than a handful of MK's with him. And he can't pull this off by suddenly becoming the head of Yisrael Beiteinu because Liberman is extremely unlikely to step down to let Netanyahu in.
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Binyamin Netanyahu, Likud Central Committee, Likud party, Moshe Feiglin, Yisrael Beiteinu
Liberman acquitted
The corruption trial of Yisrael Beiteinu leader
Avigdor Liberman has ended in an acquittal, possibly paving the way for him to return to the foreign ministry.
A great deal was at stake for Liberman and the Israeli political establishment in the outcome of the legal saga.
Had
he been convicted with a finding of moral turpitude, his resignation as
foreign minister would have been made permanent, he would have been
forced to resign from the Knesset, and he would have been banned from
political life for seven years.
The prosecution’s main allegations
were as follows: First, in October 2008, Ambassador to Belarus Ze’ev
Ben-Aryeh gave Liberman a note with information about a state
investigation into money-laundering allegations against him, discussing
the case with him for three to five minutes.'
Next, the prosecution
said, Liberman destroyed the note, failed to report Ben-Aryeh and then
helped him procure promotions in the Foreign Ministry.
After that, Ben-Aryeh joined Liberman’s bureau in April 2009.
The
prosecution said that Liberman both failed to report Ben-Aryeh to the
Foreign Ministry’s appointments committee and actively campaigned in
fall 2009 for Ben-Aryeh to be appointed as Latvian ambassador.
According
to the prosecution, the campaign included Liberman giving instructions
to then-deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon saying that Ben-Aryeh was
his preferred candidate (all of this based on what Ayalon told police).
In
a 115 page opinion, Judges Hagit Mack-Kalmanovitz, Yitzhak Shimoni and
Eitan Kornhauser ruled Wednesday that Ben-Aryeh had been solely
responsible for initiating and surprising Liberman during the incident,
who had no part in initiating the exchange between them.
The court
also held that Liberman did not know, regardless of whether he and
Ben-Aryeh spoke about the note for a few minutes, that the source of the
note was an Israeli Justice Ministry investigation against him.
...
The court did find that Liberman "acted inappropriately" but added
that "the gravity of the conflict of interest" did not merit a
conviction.
The judges strongly rejected the testimony of Ayalon, stating that it was contradicted by other top Foreign Ministry officials.
They
also wrote that Ayalon had not sufficiently explained how he swiftly
went from defending Liberman's innocence in an interview with Channel 1
while still working for Liberman, to suddenly proclaiming his guilt
shortly after Liberman booted him out of Yisrael Beytenu.
Two things not mentioned here. First, the possibility of this verdict leading to the breakup of Likud Beiteinu. Liberman may not need Netanyahu politically, is opposed to the 'peace process' and is unlikely to want to be in a coalition with Tzipi Livni. He's certainly not going to go along with the idea of Livni being in charge of 'negotiations' with the 'Palestinians' while he is foreign minister in title only.
And second, this may be the end of Danny Ayalon's career. Would you want to join a political party with a high functionary who "swiftly
went from defending Liberman's innocence in an interview with Channel 1
while still working for Liberman, to suddenly proclaiming his guilt
shortly after Liberman booted him out of Yisrael Beytenu"?
Oh yes, one other thing. Why is it that we have once again been treated to the spectacle of a lengthy and expensive trial of a politician of the Right ending in an acquittal? The real corruption here is the Left's dominance of the state's attorney's office.
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Binyamin Netanyahu, Danny Ayalon, government corruption, Likud party, Tzipi Livni, Yisrael Beiteinu
Will Likud - Bennett - Lapid coalition flounder over Foreign Ministry?
Naftali Bennett has decided he wants to be finance minister. As a former high tech entrepreneur, that might even make sense. But Yair Lapid - a former television show host who was offered the finance ministry -
wants to be foreign minister. Not only is he unqualified, but Netanyahu can say to him, 'you and Bennett wouldn't break your pact - don't expect me to break mine with Lieberman.' Netanyahu has promised to hold the foreign ministry for foreign minister and Yisrael Beiteinu chief Avigdor Lieberman.
Bayit Yehudi leader Naftali Bennett is the leading candidate for
Finance Ministry, as Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid did not accept Likud
Beytenu's offer of the portfolio Tuesday.
A senior Likud-Beytenu
source said that Lapid had been offered the Finance Ministry, and that
the party would keep the Foreign Ministry, Lapid's preferred portfolio.
Lapid has yet to give Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu an answer,
but sources in his party say he will continue to push for the Foreign
Ministry, with the Interior Ministry as his second choice.
No
progress was made on coalition negotiations on Tuesday, mainly due to
the impasse over the Foreign Ministry and Yesh Atid's demand that there
be only 18 Ministries.
The Bayit Yehudi told Likud Beytenu's negotiating team that, despite
the pact between the two parties, they have no problem with a larger
number of portfolios. [I think that's the first independent thought I've heard from Bennett since the elections ended. CiJ]
Netanyahu is expected to face difficulties
selecting ministers within the Likud if the number of ministers
decreases to 18, as he seeks a majority for Likud-Beytenu within the
government. In such a situation, six or seven Likud MKs and three
Yisrael Beytenu MKs would get portfolios, while nine 19th Knesset MKs
from the former party and four from the latter are currently ministers.
As part of the agreement between Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi, the two parties are not competing over the same ministries.
Bennett's
party has requested that he receive the Finance Ministry and that the
Housing and Construction, Transportation and Religious Services
portfolios go to Bayit Yehudi, a party source said.
Yesh Atid has asked for Interior, Education, and Communications portfolios, in addition to the Foreign Ministry for Lapid.
The
battle for the Education Ministry is expected to be rough, since
current minister Gideon Sa'ar, who came in first place in the Likud
primary, hopes to remain in his seat.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Binyamin Netanyahu, Jewish Home party, Knesset elections 2013, Likud party, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid party, Yisrael Beiteinu
Could President Peres foil the will of the Israeli voter?
Israel's Presidency is supposed to be a ceremonial, non-political position. But Ezer Weizmann, who was President until 2000, often intervened in politics, and during the past seven years, Shimon Peres has only made matters worse. Now, with Peres' term ending this spring, he has one last ceremonial task to perform: To name the Knesset member who gets the first chance to form a government.
Traditionally, that role has always gone to the head of the slate that garnered the most seats in the elections. But four years ago, it was obvious that Tzipi Livni, the head of Kadima, would not be able to form a new government, despite having the largest party by one seat, and so the task was placed on Binyamin Netanyahu. So the President does have some discretion.
Now, with Likud-Beiteinu showing up as the largest party by far in the polls, Peres is being accused of trying to encourage the
formation of a Center-Left bloc on whom he could bestow the first chance of forming a government.
Two newspapers on Sunday quoted unnamed senior Likud ministers on their front page, who claim that President Peres is driving the recent moves toward greater coordination
between leaders of the three main center-left parties – which
culminated last night in a three-way meeting between Shelly Yacimovich,
Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid. The anonymous Likudniks believe that Peres
is trying to create a situation where immediately after the elections,
Labor, Hatnuah and Yesh Atid join forces to create one parliamentary
bloc larger than Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu. This will allow Peres to give
the bloc's leader, rather than Netanyahu, the first chance to form a
coalition. Such a scenario currently seems less than feasible. But no
one has denied that Peres met with the three leaders separately in
recent days though his spokeswoman vehemently denied that he was
involved in politics in any way.
The denials, of course, are rather disingenuous. This is Peres' second
election campaign as president. During the previous campaign, he seemed a
lot more sanguine about Netanyahu's inevitable victory and spent the
months leading up to the vote in talks with world leaders, trying to
persuade them that Bibi had changed and he was much more moderate than
he was during his first term in the 1990s. I remember during his state
visit to Britain in November 2008, Peres' aides were very open about how
he was promoting Netanyahu at Downing Street, months before he was
elected. Now it seems he has lost hope in the candidate-turned-prime
minister. It is widely believed that Peres is the "senior national
figure" who was quoted two weeks ago in Yedioth Ahronoth warning of the
dire implications of another Netanyahu term for Israel's foreign
relations. Now he seems to be giving the opposition valuable
behind-the-scenes support.
To be sure, there's nothing new about this. The president's official
neutrality has often been compromised. No one knows this better than
Peres who, as Labor leader in 1990, was given a second chance to form a
coalition by his former party colleague, President Chaim Herzog, though
it was clear by then that he had no chance of commanding the necessary
majority. Three weeks later, it was Likud leader Yitzhak Shamir who
emerged as prime minister. Peres is also not the first president to
interfere on Netanyahu's watch. In 1996, frustrated at Netanyahu's
intransigence on the peace process, President Ezer Weizman took the
unorthodox -- and what many at the time saw as unconstitutional -- step
of inviting PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat to visit him at his private
residence in Caesarea.
Some, including Livni, have urged Peres to resign and openly lead the
opposition against Netanyahu. But at age 89 and after five-and-a-half
years as president, he is loath to jeopardize his hard-won public
popularity. So Peres keeps up the show of the president of all Israelis.
Sometime next month, he will welcome Netanyahu to his office, smile for
the cameras and yet again task him with forming a government.
Or will he? At the moment, the polls show the three Center-Left parties as being close to the same number as Likud-Beiteinu. The Right still leads on the whole, but the Likud is dropping in the polls and hemorrhaging votes to Naftali Bennett's Jewish Home party. And that's why Bibi's in a panic.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Labor party, Likud party, Shelly Yacimovich, Shimon Peres, Tzipi Livni, Yair Lapid, Yisrael Beiteinu
Idiot: Netanyahu happy to go into coalition with parties on Left, still thinks his battle is with the Right
Remarks made by Prime Minister Netanyahu in an interview with Channel 2 on Saturday are likely to drive even more voters into Naftali Bennett's waiting arms. Netanyahu express a willingness to go into a coalition with Center-Left parties, while warning voters not to abandon the Likud for more Right wing parties. To the voters that says that Netanyahu wants to go into a coalition with Left and so he is appealing to Center-Left voters to '
save him' from a coalition with the Right.
Speaking in excerpts of an interview with Channel 2 released Saturday,
the full version of which was scheduled to be broadcast on Monday,
Netanyahu stated, "Whoever wants to join a coalition based on my
principles is welcome. In the meantime they are the ones that are
rejecting me."
Netanyahu's comments came in response to efforts by Labor leader Shelly Yacimovich and Tzipi Livni to form an “obstructing bloc” to stop the prime minister from being reelected.
Livni
called for Yacimovich and Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid to form a
“united front” toward victory over the Likud-Yisrael Beytenu joint list,
speaking to Channel 2 News on Friday, two days after Yacimovich put
herself at the fore of the Center-Left bloc by saying she would rather
be opposition leader than join a Netanyahu coalition.
Netanyahu told Channel 2 that he would accept Livni, Lapid and
Yacimovich in his coalition, even as ministers, but only on the
condition that they "go in my diplomatic and economic direction, which I
believe is responsible and has proven itself."
The prime minister
said that Livni could be a minister in his government, "but I will lead
policy on the issues of the Palestinians and security."
As for
Yacimovich, Netanyahu stated that she could serve as a minister in his
government as well, but he chuckled at the suggestion that he would give
her the finance minister portfolio. "For the good of the Israeli
economy, I should continue with the responsible and successful policy
I've implemented thus far."
The prime minister addressed what has
been described as the radicalization of the Likud, saying that "there
are various opinions in the Likud, but the main direction will be led by
me. Whoever wants to join the coalition is welcome."
Netanyahu
stated that if he is chosen to lead the next government his top
priorities will be "handling the housing issue, changing the electoral
system and equalizing the service burden."
A new poll released on Friday showed that the Likud-Beiteinu ticket
continues in freefall, reaching a new low of 32 seats, while Bennett's Jewish Home and Michael Ben Ari's Otzma l'Yisrael (Strength for Israel) continue to rise.
Netanyahu still doesn't get it. The country doesn't want the Left and by continuing to try to place himself in the Center with Leftist partners, he is hurting the Likud. Everything he has done in this election cycle, starting with the joint list with Yisrael Beiteinu has damaged the Likud politically. It's almost like he wants to lose.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Jewish Home party, Knesset elections 2013, Likud party, Michael Ben Ari, Naftali Bennett, Otzma l'Yisrael party, Shelly Yacimovich, Tzipi Livni, Yisrael Beiteinu
Maybe Netanyahu ought to stop attacking Bennett
Prime Minister Netanyahu may want to
reconsider his attacks on Jewish Home party leader Naftali Bennett.
Naftali Bennett's Bayit Yehudi party rose three seats from 11 to 14 in
just one week, according to a Smith Research poll conducted Tuesday and
Wednesday for The Jerusalem Post and the economic newspaper Globes.
The
rise came after Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and other Likud
leaders attacked Bennett for saying his conscience would not permit him
as a reserve soldier to evacuate Jews from their homes in Judea and
Samaria.
Surprisingly one third of Bayit Yehudi's voters define
themselves as secular and forty percent of Bayit Yehudi's support comes
from voters 30 and younger. The older voters get, the less likely they
are to vote for the party.
“Sometimes
the older generation marginalizes the youth of our country saying they
are only interested in iPads and video games," said Bayit Yehudi
candidate Jeremy Gimpel, who is 14th on the list. "The fact that we are
the most popular party among young Israelis is testimony that Israel's
next generation is as passionate and Zionist as ever."
According
to the poll, the Likud's joint list with Yisrael Beytenu fell to 34
seats from 36 a week ago and 39 two weeks ago. This represents the
lowest number of mandates the party received in polls since the Likud merged with Yisrael Beytenu in October.
The
poll predicts 18 seats for Labor, 11 for Shas, 10 for Yesh Atid and the
Tzipi Livni Party, six for United Torah Judaism, four for Meretz,
Hadash and Balad, three for the United Arab List, and two for Am Shalem.
That comes to 69 votes on the Right, 40 on the Left and 11 for the Arab parties. Unless Netanyahu decides he really wants a government with Livni and Yacimovitch. I suspect his self-preservation instinct is too strong for that.
Hmmm.
For another reason why Netanyahu might want to stop attacking Bennett, go
here.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Jewish Home party, Knesset elections 2013, Likud party, Naftali Bennett, Yisrael Beiteinu
Ayalon denies testifying against Lieberman
Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon (right) is
denying a
report that he testified against his former boss, Avigdor Lieberman (left). This is from the first link.
A short time
after the programs were aired, Ayalon denied in a written statement that he was
even questioned by police, and Liberman maintained his innocence on all
charges.
What gives these reports a soap-opera feel is that earlier this
month Liberman, in a complete surprise, left Ayalon off his party’s list of
candidates for the next Knesset as part of the merged Likud- Beytenu list.
According to the Channel 2 report, the Yisrael Beytenu party leader is expected
to try to defend himself by saying Ayalon was taking revenge.
Liberman is
also expected, according to Channel 2, to point to an earlier interview by
Ayalon in which he supposedly said he did not remember the events surrounding
the allegations against Liberman.
The prosecution and the police both
refused to confirm or deny whether Ayalon was recently
questioned.
According to the broadcasts, the deputy foreign minister was
questioned only recently about the affair, which until then had only involved
allegations that former ambassador Ze’ev Ben- Aryeh leaked investigative
material to Liberman, after which Liberman passively withheld information on
this from a Foreign Ministry committee that was considering Ben-Aryeh for a new
posting in Latvia.
The new allegations against Liberman, which started to
surface last week, are that he did not just passively withhold information, but
actively interfered in the appointment process on Ben-Aryeh’s behalf.
The
reports also said that 10 candidates originally had sought the Latvia position,
but most dropped out when promised other promotions – possibly by Liberman
through other Foreign Ministry officials speaking on his behalf.
Other
media reports have alleged that Liberman concealed negative reports about
Ben-Aryeh from the appointments committee. Yediot Aharonot quoted sources who
said that “the influence of Liberman” was pervasive throughout the
process.
Liberman maintains that Ben-Aryeh was an able diplomat who was
well-suited for the job.
But the State Prosecutor's office (surprise) doesn't exactly have clean hands either.
Also on Monday, the State Comptroller’s Office formally
confirmed that it had received requests to investigate Attorney-General Yehuda
Weinstein’s handling of the Liberman case.
Liberman and many other
politicians have questioned Weinstein’s decision to delay an indictment so he
could investigate the new charges after the attorney-general announced he would
file the indictment last week, and after Liberman had already resigned as
foreign minister.
A spokeswoman for the YAHBAL serious and international crimes unit, which investigated the Liberman
case, on Monday refused to explain why the case was reopened – when just last
week she had said the unit considered the matter closed.
She added that
the case was, from the unit’s point of view, complete, and as it had been handed
over to the prosecutor, it was his office that was responsible for providing
answers about the recent developments.
Media reports indicated that there
may have been disagreements between the prosecution and the police about
reopening the case for more questioning, but it is Weinstein who ultimately will
make the final decision.
On Sunday, the state explained its decision to
reopen the case for further questioning based on a Channel 10 news report from
last week indicating that the fraud allegations against Liberman could be
amended to include active fraud instead of mere passive fraud.
One
ministry source said that while it was not unusual for foreign ministers to
indicate their preferences for ministerial posts, what made this case different
was the allegation that Liberman received something from Ben-Aryeh beforehand.
Furthermore, the source said, Ben-Aryeh did not distinguish himself as a
diplomat worthy of such a posting after having just recently returned from
Belarus.
The level of corruption in this country is worthy of a third world banana republic despite the fact that we supposedly have so many safeguards in place. It's blatant, open and shameless (see "Olmert, Ehud"). And it's all an outgrowth of the days when the state was the party and the party was the state and all the animals were equal except for the ones who were more equal. Will we ever root out this country's socialist past? Don't bet on it.
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, corruption, Danny Ayalon, government corruption, Yehuda Weinstein, Yisrael Beiteinu
Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon is the prime witness against Avigdor Lieberman
Three weeks ago, Deputy Foreign Minister
Danny Ayalon was dumped from Yisrael Beiteinu's Knesset list, where he had previously occupied the #2 slot. There's been
a lot of speculation since about why Ayalon was cut loose. But tonight it looks like Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman may pay with his career for cutting Ayalon loose. It turns out that
Danny Ayalon is the star witness behind new charges against his boss, Avigdor Lieberman, in what could yet become one of the biggest political scandals in Israeli history.
Both Channel 2 and Channel 10 confirmed Monday night media reports
from previous days that Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon is a main
source of new and more serious accusations against Yisrael Beytenu party
leader Avigdor Liberman in the indictment against him in the Belarus
Ambassador Affair, which could lead to new charges of active fraud.
Ayalon's
reported statements would also contradict Liberman's story that he took
no active role in the affair, though Ayalon has denied that he was even
questioned, and Liberman has maintained his innocence on all charges.
...
The
new allegations against Liberman, which started to surface last week,
are that Liberman actively interfered in the appointment process on
Ben-Aryeh's behalf.
The new allegations, which the reports said
stem primarily from Ayalon, who was head of the appointments committee
and involved in the proceedings, would move the charges from the realm
of passive fraud to active fraud, with potentially more serious
applicable punishments and political consequences.
The Channel
10 report added that several other witnesses from the appointments
committee confirm and strengthen Ayalon's statements regarding
Liberman's alleged conduct.
Channel 2 reported that Liberman will be re-questioned this coming weekend regarding Ayalon's new allegations.
Liberman
is expected to try to defend against Ayalon's statements by saying that
it is just Ayalon taking revenge against him for recently being left
off Yisrael Beytenu's list for the next Knesset, Channel 2 said.
Holy....
It sounds like Lieberman is going to be very sorry he left Ayalon off that list.
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Danny Ayalon, Yisrael Beiteinu
Lieberman out as foreign minister, remains MK
Having been indicted for breach of trust and fraud,
Yisrael Beiteinu's Avigdor Lieberman has
resigned as Foreign Minister, but remains a Knesset member. Ironically, there is talk here that Prime Minister Netanyahu may make Lieberman's recently deposed deputy, Danny Ayalon, the Foreign Minister.
Moments
after he handed in his letter of resignation, the foreign minister
asserted that his break will be short. "I am leaving temporarily" he
said, after what he described as four very interesting years in the
Foreign Ministry.
Liberman said that he was not concerned about
the trial ahead of him and hoped the process would be quick. He also
said that he wants a trial rather than a plea bargain, making it very
unlikely that the legal process will be complete by the time the
government is formed in March.
He added
that every move he had made was for the good of the public and the break
would give him time to focus on elections. "Israel needs a strong prime
minister with a clear majority," rather than having to rely on sliver
parties, he stated.
The foreign minister confirmed on Saturday
night that he had not resigned from the Knesset or as chairman of
Yisrael Beytenu, and was still running in the election with the hope of
getting a top ministerial position in the next government, assuming
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu forms the next coalition.
Likud
officials said that they wont hide Liberman in the campaign and that he
will play a central role. They added that they appreciated his
resignation because it enables the election to return to key diplomatic
and security issues rather than focusing on Liberman.
Liberman
announced Friday that he would be stepping down, hours after Meretz
filed a petition asking the High Court of Justice to order his
resignation.
In a statement published by his office, Liberman
said his legal counsel advised him he did not have to resign.
Nonetheless, he said he would do so in order to fight the charges
against him, thereby enabling him to serve in the next government if
exonerated. Liberman has denied all wrongdoing and called for expedited
legal proceedings.
...
A source in the Prime Minister’s Office said
Netanyahu would retain the title of foreign minister until the next
government is formed, dispelling rumors that a Likud minister such as
Vice Premier Silvan Shalom or Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor would be
given the post.
According to Israeli constitutional processes, when a minister resigns, his deputy automatically resigns with him.
Netanyahu
and Liberman both want Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon to remain
in his post, so Netanyahu is expected to ask the Knesset to approve
Ayalon’s reappointment.
Liberman’s decision follows Weinstein’s
surprise announcement on Thursday that he will charge the foreign
minister not only with breach of trust, but also with fraud, in a 2008
case involving obstruction of justice by former ambassador to Belarus
Ze’ev Ben- Aryeh.
It was widely predicted that Liberman would be
charged with breach of trust for allegedly not revealing that Ben- Aryeh
leaked information to him regarding a separate investigation against
him when he visited the ambassador in Belarus in 2008. But the charge
that by allegedly helping Ben-Aryeh advance to two additional positions
in the Foreign Ministry as “payment” for Ben-Aryeh’s leaking classified
information to Liberman, he had committed fraud, came as a surprise.
At
the same time, Weinstein decided to close the “main” case against
Liberman, regarding wider and more serious allegations of
money-laundering millions of dollars, fraud and other allegations from
2001 to 2008.
If Lieberman insists on going to trial, he will not be finished in time to be appointed to a ministerial position in the next Knesset. If he cops a plea, he will not get the exoneration he seeks.
If the public gets its wishes, the next government will be formed by Likud-Beiteinu, Labor and Jewish Home. Labor claims they won't go into a government with someone under indictment (kind of ironic, given that Labor was by far the most corrupt party until
Ehud K. Olmert came along). If that holds, look for Labor's place in the next government to be taken by the Haredi parties. In fact, even if it doesn't hold, I cannot see Labor going into the government because government that includes both the Likud and Jewish Home will not sufficiently support the 'peace process' for Labor's tastes.
A mentch tracht un Got Maft (people think and God does)....
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Haredim, Jewish Home party, Likud party, Shas, United Torah Judaism party, Yisrael Beiteinu
Poll: Israel shifting even further to the Right
We're feeling the hope and change here in Israel, but not in the direction that the Obama administration and the Euroweenies want us to go.
A new poll out Friday morning shows the merged
Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu party losing seats... to the even further right Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) party. The poll was taken before the indictment of Avigdor Lieberman, the head of Yisrael Beiteniu, broke on Thursday. And recall that this is after the Likud's own Knesset slate shifted to the Right.
The joint Likud-Yisrael Beytenu list would win only 35 seats in the next Knesset
– seven fewer than their 42 in the outgoing parliament – according to a
Geocartography poll taken for The Jerusalem Post Group’s Hebrew daily the Israel
Post in honor of its inaugural weekend edition (Sof Hashavua), which will come
out on Friday.
The poll of 500 respondents, representing a statistical
sample of the country’s population, was taken on Wednesday, before
Attorney-General Yehuda Weinstein announced his decision about Foreign Minister
Avigdor Liberman. It was the same day that Liberman’s attacks on Europe at The
Jerusalem Post Diplomatic Conference in Herzliya dominated
headlines.
It's not just a question of numbers.
When asked whether the country’s diplomatic situation had
improved or worsened over the past four years, 54.1 percent of respondents said
it had worsened, 15.4% said it had improved, and 23.6% said there had been no
change.
The poll, which has a 4.2-percentage point margin of
error, found
that mandates from the Likud and Yisrael Beytenu would not shift to
Center-Left
parties, but to Bayit Yehudi, further to the Right, which would rise
from
three seats in the current Knesset to 16. The Tzipi Livni Party, which
formed to attract votes from the Right by highlighting the diplomatic
issue, would win
only seven seats, according to the poll.
Labor would win 17 seats, Yesh
Atid 12, Shas 10, United Torah Judaism and Meretz six each, Hadash and United
Arab List four apiece, and Balad three.
Kadima, Am Shalem, Strong Israel
and Green Leaf would not pass the 2-percent electoral threshold.
And here's an indication of how much the country has had it with the 'Palestinians.'
Asked if they believed Balad MK Haneen Zoabi should be permitted
to run for Knesset, 69.4% said no, and only 13.4% said yes.
Zoabi, as you might recall, is the inflammatory 'Israeli Arab' MK who hitched a ride on the Mavi Marmara.
But there's something weird about this poll. Compare it to the Smith poll:
The Smith
poll predicted 29 seats for Likud Beytenu, up two mandates from Smith’s last
poll two weeks ago. Labor would win 19, Bayit Yehudi and Shas 10, Lapid’s
and Livni’s parties nine each, UTJ six, Meretz, Hadash and Balad four each, and
Am Shalem and UAL-Ta’al three apiece.
Kadima and Strong Israel would not
pass the threshold.
Someone want to tell me how a party can have 16 seats in one poll and 10 in another. That's quite a difference.
Read the whole thing.
If the Geocartography poll is correct and votes are shifting from Likud to Bayit Yehudi, it means that Netanyahu will find it difficult to impossible to bring back Meridor and Begin, his more 'centrist' ministers who lost in the primaries, whom he wanted to bring back in some capacity. It means that the Likud - Yisrael Beiteinu merger was a huge mistake (which it seems to have been anyway - who needs Yisrael Beiteinu without Lieberman and without Ayalon - but Netanyahu probably did that to moderate his own party like so many other moves he's made). And it means that the Obama administration and the Europeans may soon be longing for the days that they were dealing with Netanyahu and Barak rather than Netanyahu, Bennett and Feiglin.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Benny Begin, Binyamin Netanyahu, Dan Meridor, Ehud Barak, Jewish Home party, Knesset elections 2013, Likud party, Moshe Feiglin, Naftali Bennett, Tzipi Livni, Yisrael Beiteinu
Why Danny Ayalon was dumped?
Last week, I reported that Deputy Foreign Minister
Danny Ayalon was sacked from the Likud - Yisrael Beiteinu list for reasons that were not clear, but likely involved a personality conflict between Ayalon and Yisrael Beiteinu party leader Avigdor Lieberman.
Now, there are two other reports that claim to know why Ayalon was unceremoniously dumped. One claims that Lieberman
wants to normalize relations with Turkey and cannot do so with Ayalon in the Foreign Ministry. The other claims that Lieberman was furious with Ayalon because he
held meetings with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton without Lieberman's knowledge.
This is from the second link:
The deputy foreign minister was seen as having played a substantive role
in Jerusalem’s deteriorating ties with Ankara, after he attempted
to publicly shame Turkey’s ambassador to Israel by making him sit on a
low chair, without displaying a Turkish flag in the room, during a
meeting in which he rebuked the ambassador for an anti-Israel television
series screened in Turkey.
...
According to the report in the Russian news outlet Vestnik Kavkaza, which cited an unnamed senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official,
Liberman is looking for a way to normalize ties, and Ayalon’s sacking
is seen as a message to Ankara that Israel is serious about taking steps
to that end.
The problem with this theory is that
Lieberman is not a huge fan of Turkey, and has said that
apologizing to Turkey would be an admission of guilt.
Then there's the Clinton theory.
This is from the third link.
The report, confirmed by
senior Foreign Ministry officials, claimed Lieberman was infuriated with
Ayalon over the meeting, in part because Lieberman himself does not
have a good working relationship with Clinton.
Ayalon reportedly met several times with
Clinton in an attempt to maintain proper foreign policy conduct between
the countries. Ayalon was responsible for Israel's strategic relations
with the U.S. and was in constant contact with Clinton's deputy
throughout his term of office.
His regular meetings with Clinton were kept
secret from Lieberman, in accordance with an agreement between Ayalon
and Clinton. According to the report, when Lieberman found out about the
meetings, he fired Ayalon.
Lieberman and Clinton met several times during
their terms in office but the frequency of their meetings was much
lower than those of past foreign ministers of both countries.
...
Close advisers of Ayalon confirmed the report, but an
official statement by the Foreign Ministry said, "The allegations are
childish and groundless, but we shouldn't judge someone in their hour of
despair."
My own view is that Lieberman never liked Ayalon and felt that as long as Ayalon was there, there was no chance that Lieberman would get credit for anything at the Foreign Ministry. Now, Lieberman (thinks he) doesn't need Ayalon to be his understudy anymore.
Meanwhile, Attorney-General
Yehuda Weinstein is expected to announce on Monday or Tuesday the
closure of the main criminal case against Lieberman involving fraud
allegations.
Lieberman has been
under investigation
for 14 years on suspicion that he received millions of dollars from
private businesspeople abroad, among them Austrian entrepreneur Martin
Schlaff, Uzbek-Israeli businessman Michael Cherney, and diamond tycoons
Dan Gertler and Daniel Gittenstein, who allegedly funneled funds through
what may have been front companies and corporations owned by Lieberman.
Well, yeah, once there are no criminal charges, Lieberman doesn't need Ayalon to take his place if he's forced to resign (even temporarily) from the Foreign Ministry. But the issue that was lurking four years ago remains: Is Lieberman capable of being foreign minister? Clinton and Obama weren't even willing to give him a chance.
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Danny Ayalon, Hillary Clinton, Turkey, Yisrael Beiteinu
There goes the only guy doing any creative hasbara
There's only one senior Israeli government official who is doing any kind of creative
hasbara (public relations) and that is Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon. Now, Ayalon has been
left off his party's Knesset list for the upcoming elections.
Ayalon responded to his having been left off the Yisrael Beytenu
list, saying he would continue to work to advance Israel's interests.
"Today
I received from the chairman of Yisrael Beytenu, Avigdor Liberman, the
announcement that I would not be on the Yisrael Beytenu list for the
next Knesset," Ayalon wrote on his Facebook page.
"In the past
four years I was able to serve as Israel's deputy foreign minster during
a complicated and challenging time...I will continue to work for the
prosperity and strengthening of Israel in the diplomatic, security and
economic arenas," Ayalon stated.
He added that he would continue to work hard in his current role until the end of his term.
But why? Why would the number 2 person in Yisrael Beiteinu be unceremoniously dumped? (The party has no primary so this was clearly a decision of Avigdor Lieberman). Here's some
speculation.
Israeli political consultant Jonny Daniels told The Algemeiner that
the move was political. “Basically Ayalon doesn’t bring any seats to
LBet (Lieberman’s party Likud Beiteinu). He was a token Israeli that
added to them. Now Lieberman with Bibi has enough people that have
good English and can appeal to that crowd,” he said.
But there may have been a personal aspect as well says Daniels, “It’s
also a known fact that Lieberman and Ayalon didn’t get on that well.”
I'd bet on the second explanation. Ayalon was put into the foreign ministry as Lieberman's deputy (usually deputies don't come from the same party) for three reasons. First, Lieberman's English was not regarded as top notch while Ayalon as a former Ambassador to the US speaks English fluently. Lieberman's English has improved.
Second, Lieberman had a criminal investigation hanging over him which is now likely to be dismissed. Having Ayalon as his deputy meant that if Lieberman had to resign (and at the beginning of the present government there was constant speculation regarding what would happen if he had to resign), there was someone else from his party who would be a natural to step into his place. Now, that's not necessary.
And third, Lieberman may just be tired of hearing that Ayalon is de facto foreign minister except when Bibi is filling that role.
So Ayalon is out. Here's betting he lands in the Likud by the next election.
In the meantime, let's hope Ayalon keeps doing
hasbara or someone else picks up the ball.
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Binyamin Netanyahu, Danny Ayalon, Likud party, Yisrael Beiteinu
Unpopular cease fire hurts Bibi in new poll
A new poll that came out on Thursday shows the merged Likud - Yisrael Beiteinu party taking a big hit mostly for the benefit of more right wing parties. The reason behind the shift is likely
dissatisfaction with the cease fire.
A new Israeli poll released this morning,
and conducted following the cease-fire with Hamas, announced yesterday
after 8 days of fighting, shows a significant drop in public support for
Israeli Prime Minister Netanayhu.
The poll which was commissioned by Israel’s Knesset website and conducted by the Panels Institute
shows Netanyahu’s joint list with Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman,
named Likud-Beiteinu dropping significantly from a current 42 seats
combined to 33 seats.
Israel’s Labor party gained two seats from a previous poll rising to
22 seats, and the Yesh Atid party of former Journalist Yair Lapid
dropped from 13 seats to 11.
Strong gains on Israel’s right were marked by the Jewish Home party
headed by former Netanyahu Chief of Staff Naftali Bennett which rose
from 11 to 13 seats, and the Power to Israel party of Michael Ben-Ari
and Aryeh Eldad, now projected to win 4 seats.
The Orthodox Shas
party remained static in the poll with 10 mandates, while Meretz and
United Torah Judaism both came in with 6 seats.
...
According to Israeli website Walla, a Likud mister who did not wish
to be named said that the, “public response is very, very difficult. We
do not remember such a magnitude of an enraged response. People call and
say: this time we will not vote Likud.”
Another minister is quoted as saying that a reserve soldier said: “A
week ago all of my battalion were Likudniks. Now, if you think anyone
would vote Likud You’re kidding yourself.”
Another minister coming to the defense of Netanyahu said that the
situation was more complicated, citing the famous Israeli saying: “what
you see from here is not visible from there.”
Israeli political commentator and Algemeiner blogger, Arik Elman,
said that he is not sure if these results will hold in the longer term.
“Obviously the first reaction to the agreement is deep disappointment,”
he said, ”and that is before all Israeli concessions to Hamas on the
issues of movement and border crossings have been realized.”
“Likud Beitenu voters many of whom live in the South feel that
Netanyahu and Lieberman bowed to Ehud Barak,” he continued. However he
said, “it is hard to tell whether this opinion climate will endure –
there are two months to elections, and if the calm will hold, perhaps
Netanyahu will yet persuade right-wing voters to support him and not the
untested alternative in the person of Naftali Bennett.”
Saying that Bennett has gone from 11 to 13 seats understates his impact. Jewish Home currently has 3 (count 'em) seats in the Knesset.
Hmmm.
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Binyamin Netanyahu, Jewish Home party, Likud party, Naftali Bennett, Yisrael Beiteinu
Maybe they ought to reconsider Bieberman
Shavua tov, a good week to everyone.
A poll that came out on Friday shows that the new 'Beiberman' merger (Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud with Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu) is
equal to less than the sum of its parts. Maybe they should reconsider.
The united Likud-Yisrael Beytenu list will get 37 seats in the 19th Knesset,
five fewer than the two parties currently have, a poll conducted by Smith
Research for The Jerusalem Post reported on Thursday.
One week after the
Likud and Yisrael Beytenu decided to merge their Knesset candidates lists, ahead
of the January 22 election, many of their voters have moved to other parties.
Four of their seats would go to Labor, which the poll says would grow from 13
seats in the present Knesset to a total of 22 in the next one.
The survey
of 500 respondents, representing a statistical sample of the adult Israeli
population, showed the migration of seats from Likud Beytenu to Labor brings the
Right bloc to 64 seats, four fewer than in a Smith/Jerusalem Post poll from
mid-October.
The new poll had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage
points.
The fifth seat the joint Likud-Yisrael Beytenu list would lose
goes to Shas, which would get 12 seats if the election were held
now.
Okay.... For those who are puzzled, please allow me to explain. Yisrael Beiteinu is to the Right on foreign policy and to the Left on certain issues of domestic policy, most notably anything having to do with religion, since many of their voters are from the Former Soviet Union and have 'questionable' religious status. Many of those people would likely be uncomfortable with the Likud's foreign policy, which tends to be further to the Right (one of the motivations for Netanyahu doing the merger is to try to keep his party from drifting further Right).
Shas' gain is likely from the Likud itself, since the Likud has a substantial religious component that would not be comfortable voting for Lieberman.
According to The Jerusalem Post
poll, the third-largest party in the 19th Knesset would be Yair Lapid’s Yesh
Atid, with 13 seats. Kadima would drop from 28 MKs to three, and Meretz would
grow from three to five.
In other words, many Kadima voters are fleeing from a sinking, unprincipled party to another unprincipled party.
United Torah Judaism would gain one seat, rising
to six.
Now there's one I don't understand. They represent the fastest growing element of our population.
A joint national-religious list of National Union and Habayit
Hayehudi would have nine MKs in the next Knesset, a gain of two.
If they can ever agree on one. Don't hold your breath.
Defense
Minister Ehud Barak’s Independence Party would not pass the 2% election
threshold.
Look for Bibi to try to make him part of Likud and protect him with a high slot.
More
here.
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Binyamin Netanyahu, Knesset elections 2013, Likud party, Yisrael Beiteinu
Likud and Liberman running together - not everyone is pleased
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman announced on Thursday evening that their two parties - the Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu respectively, will
run together as one list in the upcoming Knesset elections.
In a brief press conference that
lasted exactly 6.5 minutes, Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Liberman
refused to answer any questions regarding the rotation of the list, but a
Likud source said Netanyahu will be first, followed by Liberman, then
two Likud MKs, followed by a member of Yisrael Beytenu.
Both
parties denied that the foreign minister and prime minister would have a
rotation for the top spot, saying that Netanyahu will lead Israel for
ten more years.
"We are before difficult challenges and it is
time to unite powers for the state of Israel," Netanyahu said. "One
ticket will strengthen the government, it will strengthen the prime
minister, and it will strengthen the state."
"We are asking the
public for a mandate to deal with the security threats, at the top of
which is stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and fighting
terror. We are asking for a mandate from the public to continue the
changes in the economy, in education, and in the need to lower the cost
of living."
Netanyahu thanked Liberman for putting his "personal considerations" aside for the good of the country.
...
A
poll conducted by Liberman's campaign adviser Arthur Finkelstein said
the joint party would get 51 seats in the 19th Knesset. Currently, the
two parties combined have 42 MKs.
...
Netanyahu's
merger with Liberman's party, and the likelihood that Liberman will now
be the number two man in the new party, will undoubtedly raise eyebrows
in capitals around the world as to whether Netanyahu is still committed
to the diplomatic process with Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. In
the past Netanyahu's advisors distanced Netanyahu from Liberman's stand
on these issues, saying that the foreign ministry was only speaking for
himself and his party.
For the last number of months Liberman
has waged a campaign against Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud
Abbas, saying that there will be no agreement with the Palestinians
while he is still in power and that the PA president is engaging in
diplomatic terrorism.
Immediately after Thursday's dramatic
announcement, an advisor to Netanyahu said that Netanyahu continues to
call for a resumption of peace talks with the Palestinian Authority with
out pre-conditions.
Read the whole thing.
It's not just rival parties that are denouncing this move.
Several MK's in the Likud are also opposed.
Speaking of the move, the Likud's Environmental Protection Minister
Gilad Erdan said in an interview with Channel 2 earlier in the day that
he was "aware of contacts on this issue. This isn't new," adding: "We
must congratulate the agreement."
"This isn't a joint party,
but a joint list," Erdan said, confirming that Netanyahu informed him of
the move earlier in the day.
Likud MK Michael Eitan criticized
the move, and called on Likud committee members to reject the
unification. “This agreement, if it goes into effect, it will destroy
the Likud movement, and threaten Israeli democracy,” said Eitan.
Education Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who also hails from the Likud, also
congratulated the move, saying that it will "more clearly define the
contest between left and right in the elections campaign."
Another senior Likud official, speaking on condition of anonymity,
criticized the plan, saying: "What does Netanyahu think? That he's
[Shas' spiritual leader Rabbi] Ovadia Yosef? That he can dictate to us
who we run with?"
"We're repulsed by this partnership with
Lieberman. I don't want to run with a person like Lieberman, with the
kind of values he stands for," the Likud official added, saying that he
thought "the joint list won't get together what Likud and Yisrael
Beiteinu would have received if they went for elections as separate
parties."
The idea that Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu joining the Likud will put an end to 'negotiations' (as if there have been any in the last three and a half years) is a load of rubbish. As you might recall, Lieberman's party favors a 'Palestinian state,' albeit
with a land swap that would have Israel absorbing part of Judea and Samaria, and the 'Palestinians' receiving the Triangle (an area within the 'green line' near Samaria that has an almost-entirely Arab population) in exchange.
And while I believe that Netanyahu made this move out of concern over the rumblings of Kadima and Labor running together with Olmert or Livni leading the ticket, I also believe that this move was intended to once again prevent Moshe Feiglin and Manhigut Yehudit (Jewish Leadership) from attaining realistic slots on the Likud's slate. Ironically, Feiglin
congratulated Netanyahu on the move soon after it was announced.
An additional 'benefit' from Netanyahu's standpoint may be pushing young whippersnappers like Danny Danon and Tzipi Hotovely further down the list. So no, I'm not happy about this. But I don't believe that this type of partnership between Netanyahu and his former bureau chief (during his first term in office) is likely to last long term.
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Binyamin Netanyahu, Likud party, Yisrael Beiteinu
