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Thursday, April 27, 2017

Breaking: Syrian drone shot down over Golan Heights

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad apparently doesn't have enough on his mind these days. Or maybe he's just trying to find a distraction.

Hmmm.

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Tuesday, August 30, 2016

United Nations has awarded tens of millions in 'aid' contracts to Assad cronies

The United Nations has awarded tens of millions of dollars in aid contracts to people associated with the Assad regime, including the dictator's wife Asma, and close Assad associate Rami Makhlouf. According to Britain's Guardian, many of the persons who received the contracts are subject to United States and European Union sanctions.
The UN says it can only work with a small number of partners approved by President Assad and that it does all it can to ensure the money is spent properly.

“Of paramount importance is reaching as many vulnerable civilians as possible,” a spokesman said. “Our choices in Syria are limited by a highly insecure context where finding companies and partners who operate in besieged and hard to reach areas is extremely challenging.”
However, critics believe the UN mission is in danger of being compromised.

They believe aid is being prioritised in government-held areas and argue UN money is effectively helping to prop up a regime responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of its own citizens.

UN insiders admit the relief mission in Syria is the most expensive, challenging and complex it has ever undertaken.

But the contentious decisions it has had to make are now exposed for the first time by a Guardian analysis of hundreds of contracts it has awarded since the operation began in 2011.

This shows that:
  • The UN has paid more than $13m to the Syrian government to boost farming and agriculture, yet the EU has banned trade with the departments in question for fear of how the money will be used.
  • The UN has paid at least $4m to the state-owned fuel supplier, which is also on the EU sanctions list.
  • The World Health Organisation has spent more than $5m to support Syria’s national blood bank – but this is being controlled by Assad’s defence department. Documents seen by the Guardian show funds spent on blood supplies came directly from donors who have economic sanctions against the Syrian government, including the UK. They also show the WHO had “concrete concerns” about whether blood supplies would reach those in need, or be directed to the military first.
  • Two UN agencies have partnered with the Syria Trust charity, an organisation started and chaired by President Assad’s wife, Asma, spending a total of $8.5m. The first lady is under both US and EU sanctions.
  • Unicef has paid $267,933 to the Al-Bustan Association, owned and run by Rami Makhlouf, Syria’s wealthiest man. He is a friend and cousin of Assad, and his charity has been linked to several pro-regime militia groups.
  • Makhlouf runs the mobile phone network Syriatel, which the UN has also paid at least $700,000 in recent years. Makhlouf is on the EU sanctions list and was described in US diplomatic cables as the country’s “poster boy for corruption”.
  • Contracts have been awarded across UN departments with companies run by or linked to individuals under sanctions.
These contracts show how the United Nations operation has quietly secured deals with individuals and companies that have been designated off-limits by Europe and the US.

On top of this, analysis of the United Nations own procurement documents show its agencies have done business with at least another 258 Syrian companies, paying sums as high as $54m and £36m, down to $30,000. Many are likely to have links to Assad, or those close to him.
There's more too - read the whole thing.

If the Obama administration and the Europeans had expended even half the effort on Syria that they have expended on the 'poor' 'oppressed' 'Palestinians' over the past five years, it is hard to believe that the situation would be this bad. But they don't. Unfortunately for Syrians, "No Jews = No News" and the news that Jews have actually been saving Syrians almost isn't being reported anywhere outside of Israel.

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Friday, July 29, 2016

Report: Assad tried to cut a deal with Netanyahu, used Putin as emissary

A Lebanese and a Kuwaiti report indicate that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad asked Russian President Putin to deliver a message to Prime Minister Netanyahu when Assad and Netanyahu visited Moscow a few days apart last month.
Putin and Assad  reportedly discussed the crisis in Syria as well as the possibility of a comprehensive peace agreement with Israel, including the Golan Heights, Al-Joumhourireported, however the Kremlin denied the report.
According to Johnny Munir, Al-Joumhouria newspaper reporter , the Assad Putin meeting focused on the US Russia plan which will be revealed in early August. In addition they reportedly  discussed the Bill Clinton Israeli Syrian peace  plan which will reportedly  form  the basis of the future Israeli Syrian  comprehensive peace plan.
Meanwhile Kuwait Newspaper “Al Jareeda ” reported that Assad sent a letter to Netanyahu ahead of his meeting with Putin in which he vowed to keep the Golan heights free of any arms  and to continue to honor the ceasefire between the 2 countries ”
“Help me to succeed in controlling my areas and I will guarantee security and peace for Israel in Golan on condition you don’t side with any party that wants to topple my regime ” , the daily quoted Assad as saying.
I'm sure the Kremlin denied it because Netanyahu told Putin that this just isn't happening.  You might recall that the Bill Clinton plan for an Israeli - Syrian peace agreement called for Israel to come down from the Golan Heights to within a few feet of the Kinneret (Sea of Galilee). That wasn't good enough for Assad who wanted to be on the eastern shores of the Kinneret.

Today, no one in Israel regrets that deal did not happen.

Assad's assurances are worthless, both because he cannot be trusted and because his government is and will remain forever unstable.

Assad offered nothing new. There will be no deal in any of our lifetimes.

By the way, note who is missing from this story: The Americans.

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Sunday, July 17, 2016

Potentially huge: Massive explosions in defense facilites in Aleppo, Syria

Shavua tov, a good week everyone.

Aside from the attempted coup in Turkey, there have been more than ten massive explosions in a weapons plant in Aleppo, Syria.

Let's go to the videotape. Make sure you see the note on top:

Here's the first post about the explosions:

And here are some more:

Unsurprisingly, here in Israel there have been no comments.

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Thursday, June 16, 2016

'Palestinians' whine to pollsters over Sunni Arabs preferring their own interests

There's a very detailed poll of 'Palestinian' public opinion out ('Palestinian' public opinion tends to be more measurable than in other places in the Arab Islamic world - they learned from Israel). While I may come back to this poll eventually, I'd like to focus on this part for a minute. Keep in mind that this is 'Palestinian' public opinion and not Sunni Arab or other Arabs or Muslims.
(7) The Arab World, war in Syria, ISIS, and US elections: 
78% say the Arab World is too preoccupied with its own concerns, internal
conflicts, and the conflict with Iran and that Palestine is no longer the
Arab’s principal or primary issue or cause. Only 20% think Palestine remains
the Arab’s principle cause. 
They finally are starting to understand that the Arab world is tired of them. It's the anti-Semitic Europeans who have been carrying the ball for the 'Palestinians' for many years now. While the Arab world has not made peace with us, there is a de facto detente, and this a result of shared interests and not love. But the bottom line is that the Arab world has abandoned the 'Palestinians' even more so than it did previously. 
59% believe that there is an Arab Sunni alliance with Israel against Iran
despite the continued Israeli occupation of Arab land while 30% believe that
the Arabs would not ally themselves with Israel until it ends its occupation
and allows the creation of a Palestinian state. 
I'm with the majority. Just from what we know, there is an alliance, and I'd estimate that it's even stronger behind the scenes. The 30% who think that the Arabs wouldn't ally themselves with Israel to save their own necks is simply unrealistic. 
In light of the escalating conflict in Syria and the emergence of three main
parties to the conflict, we asked the public for its view on the party it
views as the more preferable or the one it views as the least harmful. The
largest percentage (40%) chose the Free Syrian army, 18% chose Bashar Asad
and his army, and 5% chose the extreme religious opposition, such as ISIS.
23% said they do not like any of the three parties. 
The Syrian Free Army will go down in history as one of the biggest (of many) foreign policy mistakes by the Obama administration. The FSA could have become a 'moderate' (in relative terms) group had Obama and Clinton chosen to aid it in 2011-12. They did not. Now, it's nearly as Islamist as ISIS. Why Trump isn't pounding Clinton on this.... 
An overwhelming majority of 88% believes that ISIS is a radical group that
does not represent true Islam and 8% believe it does represent true Islam.
4% are not sure or do not know. In the Gaza Strip, 16% (compared to 3% in
the West Bank) say ISIS represents true Islam. 
79% support and 18% oppose the war waged by Arab and Western countries
against ISIS. 
 This is actually a pleasant surprise. 
We asked the public about the US elections and which presidential candidate,
Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump, it viewed best for the Palestinians. A large
majority (70%) said there is no difference between the two candidates, while
12% said Clinton is better and 7% said Trump is better.
I'd love to see a survey of what US citizens in Israel think of the US elections....  I don't like either of them, and am tempted to 'stay home.'

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Friday, May 13, 2016

Why war between Hezbullah and Israel is unlikely

Even if Israel is behind the assassination of Hezbullah's Mustafa Badreddine, war between Hezbullah and Israel in the near future is unlikely.

Here's a good 140-character summary of the reason why:
Shabbat Shalom everyone.

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Beirut barracks bomb preparer, Hariri assassination mastermind killed near Damascus

Israel may have been behind an explosion that killed Mustafa Badreddine, the Hezbullah commander who prepared the bombs for the US Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983, and who is said to the mastermind of the assassination of Lebanese President Rafik al-Hariri in 2005, among other crimes. Badreddine was killed in a blast near the Damascus Airport a few days ago.

This is from the BBC.
An initial report by Lebanon's al-Mayadeen TV said that Badreddine, 55, died in an Israeli air strike. But a later statement by Hezbollah on al-Manar's website did not mention Israel.
Israeli media reported that the government refused to comment on whether it was involved in Badreddine's death.
Israel has been accused by Hezbollah of killing a number of its fighters in Syria since the conflict began.
The group was established in the wake of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon in the early 1980s, and has called for the "obliteration" of Israel.
A number of Twitter accounts supporting Syrian rebel groups and the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front say Badreddine was killed in a battle in Khan Touman, southern Aleppo, rather than in Damascus.
Khan Touman was captured by a coalition of groups including al-Nusra Front last week and has been subject to heavy shelling in recent days.
No official sources have commented on the reports.
Born in 1961, Badreddine is believed to have been a senior figure in Hezbollah's military wing. He was a cousin and brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyeh, who was the military wing's chief until his assassination by car bomb in Damascus in 2008.
According to one report, a Hezbollah member interrogated by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), described Badreddine as "more dangerous" than Mughniyeh, who was "his teacher in terrorism".
They are alleged to have worked together on the October 1983 bombing of the US Marine Corps barracks in Beirut that killed 241 personnel.
Badreddine is reported to have sat on Hezbollah's Shura Council and served as an adviser to the group's overall leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Badreddine was tried in absentia by the ongoing Special Tribunal for Lebanon, in The Hague, over the killing of Mr Hariri.
He was indicted on four charges and was said by the tribunal to be "the overall controller of the operation" to kill Mr Hariri.
...
Any of the armed groups seeking to overthrow Mr Assad might have sought to kill the man co-ordinating Hezbollah military activities. However, suspicion is likely to fall on Israel, which fought a war against Hezbollah in 2006.
Israel has been accused of killing several of the group's leaders over the years, although it has never officially confirmed its involvement.
Hezbollah military chief Imad Mughniyeh was killed in a car bombing in Damascus in 2008 that US intelligence officials said last year was a joint operation by the CIA and Israel's Mossad spy agency.
In January 2015, a suspected Israeli air strike in the Syrian Golan Heights killed six Hezbollah fighters, including Mughniyeh's son Jihad, and an Iranian Revolutionary Guards general.
And in December, Hezbollah said one of its senior figures, Samir Qantar, was killed when missiles fired by Israeli jets struck a block of flats in Damascus.
Israel has also reportedly conducted air strikes aimed at preventing advanced weapons shipments from Iran from reaching Hezbollah via Syria.
The 'no comment' is Israel's standard operating policy, but if Israel is involved in this,  you can bet the Obama administration will make sure everyone knows about it.

The Israel Project's Omri Ceren provides more background by email.
Organizationally Badreddine was "dual hatted," per Matt Levitt, a Washington Institute director and the scholar who literally wrote the book on Badreddine [c]. He was both the head of Hezbollah's external global terror operations and the head of all Hezbollah activities in Syria [d].
Badreddine killed so many different people in so many different places that it's not actually clear if the Israelis were the ones who got him [e]. Under interrogation by Canadian security officials, a Hezbollah member once reportedly described Badreddine as "more dangerous" than his predecessor and cousin Imad Mughniyah [f]. He was unpopular even inside Hezbollah: Levitt tweeted he was "rash, hot tempered, impetuous, even unstable," and "was very close [to] Nasrallah, but widely disliked within Hezbollah," and was "a philandering playboy, not particularly religious" [g][h][i].
A couple of timelines: 1st, Badreddine's terror activities going back decades, 2nd, how the U.S. Treasury designated him as a terrorist starting in 2012, though last month
Badreddine terror activities timeline
1980s - In October 1983 he prepared the bombs for the Beirut barracks bombings, which killed 241 U.S. and 58 French servicemen. The targets were separate American and French buildings [j]. In December 1983 he was part of the Iran-backed cell that launched seven attacks in one day in Kuwait, killing 6 and wounding almost 90. The targets were the American embassy, a residential building for American company Raytheon, the French embassy, the Kuwaiti airport, the Kuwait National Petroleum Company oil rig, and a Kuwaiti power station [k].
1990s - He helped establish and then he coordinated Hezbollah Unit 1800, which facilitated terror attacks against Israel from the West Bank and Gaza [l].
2000s - He helped establish and the he coordinated Hezbollah Unit 3800, which launched attacks in Iraq against American, British, and Sunni forces [m]. In 2005 he masterminded Hariri's assassination in Lebanon, which killed Hariri and 21 others.
2010s - He's been coordinating all Hezbollah activities in Syria.
U.S. sanctions and designations timeline
2012 - Treasury designated Badreddine pursuant to E.O. 13224, labeling him a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" [n]. The Treasury notice cited him for "providing support to Hizballah’s terrorist activities in the Middle East and around the world," assessed that he was currently "Hizballah's top militant commander," and noted that "the prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon charged Mustafa Badr Al-Din with the attack... that killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and 21 others."
2015 - Treasury piled on more sanctions, this time pursuant to E.O. 13582 [o]. The Treasury note assessed he was "responsible for Hizballah's military operations in Syria since 2011," having sat with Nasrallah during meetings in Damascus throughout 2011 before expanding his role.
April 2016 - Treasury tagged him again, this time under the Hizballah International Financing Prevention Act of 2015, making him subject to secondary sanctions [p].
Badreddine's assassination could lead to war between Israel and Hezbullah.

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Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Why Obama and Rhodes abandoned Syria

I don't know whether my friends at @Free_Media_Hub and @Paradoxy13 noticed, but the @rhodes44 story is a devastating indictment of Obama administration policy in Syria.
There is nothing at all remarkable about 'John Q. Citizen' looking back on invasion, occupation, and insurgency in Iraq and saying, in effect, "Don't touch it with a ten-foot pole; let the natives have at it and sort it out on their own." It is something else, however, for an official channeling the president of the United States to say, "I profoundly do not believe that the United States could make things better in Syria by being there. And we have an evidentiary record of what happens when we're there—nearly a decade in Iraq." This is the official alibi for not having protected, over the course of five years, one single Syrian civilian from the murderous assaults of Bashar al-Assad.

Yet the official alibi lacks one critical ingredient: the truth. A "decade in Iraq" did not dissuade the Obama administration from protecting Syrian Kurds from a massacre by the Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, Daesh) in Kobani. Disaster in Iraq did not deter American military forces from protecting Yazidis in Iraq itself. The Iraqi fiasco has not stopped the Obama administration from establishing an anti-ISIS American military presence in both Iraq and Syria: yes, boots on the ground. No: the Rhodes-Obama fear and dismissal of making things better in Syria "by being there" applies only to those parts of Syria experiencing mass murder and massive displacement at the hands of Bashar al-Assad. Why? Iran.

For an American president and his principal subordinates to avert their gazes from mass homicide and from doing anything at all to mitigate or complicate it is far from unprecedented. In this day and age, however, knowing what we know about twentieth century failures to protect civilians thanks to the research and writings of Samantha Power and others, it is stunningly remarkable and regrettable. For a man of Barack Obama's evident humanity and values, surely there has been something of transcendent importance that has stayed his hand from protecting Syrian civilians; something of paramount national security significance that has stopped him from acting in support of American friends and allies trying desperately to deal with the hemorrhage of humanity from Syria. Thanks to Ben Rhodes and his chronicler we know now what it has been: pursuit of a nuclear agreement with Assad's premier long-term enabler and partner in mass murder: Iran.

The following passage from the Samuels piece clarifies why it was important for President Obama to protect no one in Syria, to risk his own reputation in the red-line climb down, and even to assure Iran's Supreme Leader in writing that the Ayatollah's murderous Syrian subordinate would not be touched by (anti-ISIS) American military intervention in Syria:

"By eliminating the fuss about Iran's nuclear program, the administration hoped to eliminate a source of structural tension between the two countries, which would create the space for America to disentangle itself from its established system of alliances with countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, and Turkey. With one bold move, the administration would effectively begin the process of large-scale disentanglement from the Middle East."
To complicate the ability of Iran's man in Syria to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity would have placed at risk nuclear negotiations aimed ultimately at dissolving American relationships of trust and confidence with key regional powers. Yes, the Blob—the foreign policy establishment—would have had a problem with this. Hence an information operation headed by Rhodes aimed at avoiding head-on debates with the Blob or, for that matter, the representatives of the American people in Congress.

Were it not for their enormous suffering, millions of Syrian civilians might find humor in the reason for their abandonment: a desire by the American president to disentangle the United States from long-term cooperative regional relationships. Were it not for the tens of thousands of rockets and missiles pointed at them by Iran's Lebanese militia, Israelis might enjoy the irony of it all. The only players in this drama who need neither humor nor irony to appreciate the importance and value of what is being undertaken are Iran and Russia. 
One cannot help but hope that this is not what 60% of the American people have in mind when they demand an "America First" foreign policy.

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Sunday, May 01, 2016

Lebanese political analyst speaks the truth about Aleppo

Lebanese political analyst Nadim Koteich has spoken the truth about Aleppo: Its residents would be better off living under Israeli annexation like residents of the Golan Heights rather than living under the ruins of Assad's bombardment of Aleppo.
In a comment he wrote on his Twitter page, Koteich expressed dismay over the absence of an Israeli move to annex Aleppo.

"If Israel would have annexed Aleppo, it would have been safe today, like the Golan. Aleppo's citizens would have been better off living under occupation than living under ruins," Koteich wrote.

Israel took the Golan Heights during the 1967 Six Day War, and in 1981 extended Israeli law to the region, thereby de facto annexing it.

Koteich's comment came shortly after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel would never renounce the Golan, infuriating Syrian politicians. Thus, many Syrian social media activists began wrangling with Koteich for voicing pro-Israel opinion.

A Twitter user affiliated with the Syrian opposition said: "the carnage in Aleppo increases our hatred for Zionists, because without Israel, Assad would have gone."
Moron. Whom does he think has been treating the Syrian wounded
Koteich anchors DNA, a daily show broadcast on the Lebanese Future Television Network. On his show, he tends to criticize Iran and its involvement in Lebanon, calling Lebanon "a mafia state" controlled by Hezbollah.

The northern Syrian city of Aleppo has been witnessing endless bombardments by the Syrian air force in the last week, in a bid to oust rebel factions from the city's outskirts. Since the city was excluded from the truce forged by the American administration and Russia on Friday, airstrikes continue hitting the city, causing hundreds of civilian causalities.
All of Syria would have been better off annexed to Israel. But it's too late for that now. 

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Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Angela Merkel says it's not the time for a 'two-state solution'

Even German Chancellor Angela Merkel gets it: This is not the time for a 'two-state solution.'
Merkel, who in the past has insisted that the “two-state solution” is the best way to end the conflict, appeared to signal at Tuesday’s Government-to-Government meeting that she would turn down the pressure on Israel to push for a diplomatic process with the Palestinian Authority (PA).

"Now is not the time for a significant step forward [in the two-state solution]," she said during a joint press conference with Netanyahu in Berlin, according to i24news.

Nevertheless, Merkel stressed that while substantial progress can't be achieved at this time, "it is possible to make improvements in specific fields," and promised Germany's help in doing so, particularly in the economic area.

Merkel’s remarks echo recent statements by officials in the United States, who admitted that President Barack Obama recognizes that reaching a two-state solution before he leaves office is unlikely.

Similar expressions have been sounded in Israel as well, where opposition chairman Yitzhak Herzog has also admitted that the “two-state solution” is not feasible at this time and has offered his own, alternative plan for peace.
With Syria falling apart a few miles away and Lebanon under the control of the Iranian proxy Hezbullah, is the world finally starting to get it?

We can only hope and pray. 

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Monday, February 15, 2016

Bashar al-Assad's strange definition of a cease fire

If there's anyone out there who still wonders why Israel has never been able to reach a 'peace agreement' with the Assad's, please consider Bashar al-Assad's definition of a cease fire.
"Regarding a ceasefire, a halt to operations, if it happened, it doesn't mean that each party will stop using weapons," Assad said in Damascus in televised comments.
"A ceasefire means in the first place halting the terrorists from strengthening their positions. Movement of weapons, equipment or terrorists, or fortification of positions, will not be allowed," he said.
Oh, of course. Why would I think otherwise? Silly me.... 

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Sunday, January 10, 2016

Priorities: As the world burns, Obama worries about Israeli 'settlement' bloc expansions

As the world burns around him, President Hussein Obama's obsession with Israel is interrupted only for his golf games. On Friday, the Obama-Kerry State Department condemned Israel's incorporation of an abandoned former tuberculosis treatment center into the Etzion bloc.
Settlement activity is “illegitimate and counterproductive to the cause of peace. Continued settlement activity and expansion raises honest questions about Israel’s long-term intentions and will only make achieving a two-state solution that much more difficult,” Kirby told reporters in Washington on Friday.

He spoke days after Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon agreed to expand the Gush Etzion bloc to include a 4-hectare site with eight stone buildings that is located off of Route 60 between the Gush Etzion junction and the Kiryat Arba settlement.

Settlers want to operate a tourist center on the property geared to helping visitors take advantage of Jewish tourist sites in the area, including the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron.

The property was owned by the US Presbyterian Church until 2008 where it ran a tuberculosis hospital and then a hostel on the site. Inclusion of the site within the Gush Etzion boundaries would make it easier for settlers to further develop the property.

When queried about the compound by a reporter at the daily briefing, Kirby said the US was “deeply concerned” about the move, “which effectively creates a new settlement on 10 acres in the West Bank.”

He then spoke in general about Area C of the West Bank, which is under Israeli military and civil rule.

“It’s important to note that some 70 percent of the West Bank’s Area C has already been unilaterally designated as Israeli state land, or within the boundaries of these regional settlement councils,” Kirby explained.

“The new decision only expands this significant majority of the West Bank that has already been claimed for exclusive Israeli use. “Along with the regular retroactive legalization of unauthorized outposts and construction of infrastructure in remote settlements, actions such as this decision clearly undermine the possibility of a two-state solution,” Kirby said.

He added that “continued settlement activity and expansion raise honest questions about Israel’s long-term intentions and will only make achieving a two-state solution that much more difficult.”

The US has asked both the Israelis and Palestinians to demonstrate their commitment to a two-state solution, Kirby said.

“Actions such as [the Gush Etzion] decision, we believe, does just the opposite,” he stressed.
I'm sure the starving Syrians in Madaya and the molested German women in Cologne found Obama's priorities heartwarming.

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Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Report: As Obama administration knowingly armed Islamic State in Syria, Joint Chiefs passed US intel to Assad

It's come to this: The Obama administration - and in particular the CIA - knowingly armed Islamic State terrorists in Syria. Okay, take it with a grain of salt. It came from Seymour Hersh.
Barack Obama’s repeated insistence that Bashar al-Assad must leave office – and that there are ‘moderate’ rebel groups in Syria capable of defeating him – has in recent years provoked quiet dissent, and even overt opposition, among some of the most senior officers on the Pentagon’s Joint Staff. Their criticism has focused on what they see as the administration’s fixation on Assad’s primary ally, Vladimir Putin. In their view, Obama is captive to Cold War thinking about Russia and China, and hasn’t adjusted his stance on Syria to the fact both countries share Washington’s anxiety about the spread of terrorism in and beyond Syria; like Washington, they believe that Islamic State must be stopped.
The military’s resistance dates back to the summer of 2013, when a highly classified assessment, put together by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, then led by General Martin Dempsey, forecast that the fall of the Assad regime would lead to chaos and, potentially, to Syria’s takeover by jihadi extremists, much as was then happening in Libya. A former senior adviser to the Joint Chiefs told me that the document was an ‘all-source’ appraisal, drawing on information from signals, satellite and human intelligence, and took a dim view of the Obama administration’s insistence on continuing to finance and arm the so-called moderate rebel groups. By then, the CIA had been conspiring for more than a year with allies in the UK, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to ship guns and goods – to be used for the overthrow of Assad – from Libya, via Turkey, into Syria. The new intelligence estimate singled out Turkey as a major impediment to Obama’s Syria policy. The document showed, the adviser said, ‘that what was started as a covert US programme to arm and support the moderate rebels fighting Assad had been co-opted by Turkey, and had morphed into an across-the-board technical, arms and logistical programme for all of the opposition, including Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State. The so-called moderates had evaporated and the Free Syrian Army was a rump group stationed at an airbase in Turkey.’ The assessment was bleak: there was no viable ‘moderate’ opposition to Assad, and the US was arming extremists.
Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, director of the DIA between 2012 and 2014, confirmed that his agency had sent a constant stream of classified warnings to the civilian leadership about the dire consequences of toppling Assad. The jihadists, he said, were in control of the opposition. Turkey wasn’t doing enough to stop the smuggling of foreign fighters and weapons across the border. ‘If the American public saw the intelligence we were producing daily, at the most sensitive level, they would go ballistic,’ Flynn told me. ‘We understood Isis’s long-term strategy and its campaign plans, and we also discussed the fact that Turkey was looking the other way when it came to the growth of the Islamic State inside Syria.’ The DIA’s reporting, he said, ‘got enormous pushback’ from the Obama administration. ‘I felt that they did not want to hear the truth.’
‘Our policy of arming the opposition to Assad was unsuccessful and actually having a negative impact,’ the former JCS adviser said. ‘The Joint Chiefs believed that Assad should not be replaced by fundamentalists. The administration’s policy was contradictory. They wanted Assad to go but the opposition was dominated by extremists. So who was going to replace him? To say Assad’s got to go is fine, but if you follow that through – therefore anyone is better. It’s the “anybody else is better” issue that the JCS had with Obama’s policy.’ 
But what's more shocking is what the Joint Chiefs decided to do about it.
The Joint Chiefs felt that a direct challenge to Obama’s policy would have ‘had a zero chance of success’. So in the autumn of 2013 they decided to take steps against the extremists without going through political channels, by providing US intelligence to the militaries of other nations, on the understanding that it would be passed on to the Syrian army and used against the common enemy, Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State.
Germany, Israel and Russia were in contact with the Syrian army, and able to exercise some influence over Assad’s decisions – it was through them that US intelligence would be shared. Each had its reasons for co-operating with Assad: Germany feared what might happen among its own population of six million Muslims if Islamic State expanded; Israel was concerned with border security; Russia had an alliance of very long standing with Syria, and was worried by the threat to its only naval base on the Mediterranean, at Tartus. ‘We weren’t intent on deviating from Obama’s stated policies,’ the adviser said. ‘But sharing our assessments via the military-to-military relationships with other countries could prove productive. It was clear that Assad needed better tactical intelligence and operational advice. The JCS concluded that if those needs were met, the overall fight against Islamist terrorism would be enhanced. Obama didn’t know, but Obama doesn’t know what the JCS does in every circumstance and that’s true of all presidents.’
Once the flow of US intelligence began, Germany, Israel and Russia started passing on information about the whereabouts and intent of radical jihadist groups to the Syrian army; in return, Syria provided information about its own capabilities and intentions. There was no direct contact between the US and the Syrian military; instead, the adviser said, ‘we provided the information – including long-range analyses on Syria’s future put together by contractors or one of our war colleges – and these countries could do with it what they chose, including sharing it with Assad. We were saying to the Germans and the others: “Here’s some information that’s pretty interesting and our interest is mutual.” End of conversation. The JCS could conclude that something beneficial would arise from it – but it was a military to military thing, and not some sort of a sinister Joint Chiefs’ plot to go around Obama and support Assad. It was a lot cleverer than that. If Assad remains in power, it will not be because we did it. It’s because he was smart enough to use the intelligence and sound tactical advice we provided to others.’

Read the whole thing.

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Sunday, December 27, 2015

Hmmm: Russian special envoy on Syria secretly visited Israel last week

Russia’s special envoy on Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, secretly visited Israel last week to discuss UN-backed negotiations to reach a diplomatic solution in Syria.
The Russian visit with members of the Foreign Ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office was shrouded in great secrecy in Israel. The Foreign Ministry declined to respond to questions from Haaretz about the meeting, and Netanyahu’s bureau declined to say whether the premier was going to meet Lavrentiev.

Lavrentiev was personally appointed by Putin and only took office a few weeks ago. He arrived in Israel in a special Russian Air Force aircraft at the head of a large delegation, which included Sergey Vershinin, the head of the Middle East desk in the Russian Foreign Ministry, and representatives of Russian intelligence.

The delegation was hosted by National Security Adviser Yossi Cohen, who is set to take up the post of Mossad chief in a few weeks.

A senior Israeli official said Cohen and the other Israeli officials presented Israel’s interests to the Russians. Their key points included maintaining the freedom to thwart terror attacks from over the border in Syria, and preventing advanced weaponry from moving from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Israelis made clear that in any future diplomatic agreement formulated by the world powers involving Syria, the latter would have to stop using its territory for direct or indirect attacks on Israel.
And let's just hope that the Golan was not part of the conversation because it's not even on the table.

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Friday, December 25, 2015

This is not a parody: State Dept. touting 'success' in fight with 'violent extremists,' efforts to end war in Syria, Iranian nuke deal in year-end review

A reminder that I am in Boston which is why I am still online several hours after the Sabbath started in Israel.

Writing in the Washington Examiner, Philip Klein reports that the US State Department's year in review, cites with great pride the government's 'success' in fighting 'violent extremists' and its 'efforts' to end the civil war in Syria as parts of its 'accomplishments' during 2015.
Following up on Secretary of State John Kerry's end of the message to department employees, the department posted a year-in-review message on Christmas Eve, which also praised the nuclear deal with Iran, restoring diplomatic ties with the communist regime of Cuba and the recent global climate agreement among accomplishments of the administration.
Though the year ends after the Islamic State pulled off the deadliest attack on France since World War II and as Americans are increasingly worried about the threat posed by terrorism, the message praises successes stemming from February's White House Summit on Countering Violent Extremism.
"Although challenges remain, we have made positive strides over the last year, including in our fight against ISIL," the message read. "This forward progress will only continue as more countries pledge resources to the anti-ISIL effort and as citizens around the world increasingly reject ISIL's misguided ideology."
You can't make this stuff up. The extent to which this administration is delusional (and attempting to delude all of us) is simply beyond all description.

And for those who have forgotten, calling that group ISIL rather than ISIS negates Israel's existence as a separate country. 

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015

US-Israel relations have never been better?

President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry keep telling us how relations between the United States and Israel have never been better. Really? David Remnick in the New Yorker.
Most of the ministers in Netanyahu’s cabinet are on the record opposing a two-state solution. American officials speak of Netanyahu as myopic, entitled, untrustworthy, routinely disrespectful toward the President, and focussed solely on short-term political tactics to keep his right-wing constituency in line. Netanyahu seems not to care if he insults the Administration. Ron Dermer, his ambassador to the U.S., secretly arranged with John Boehner for Netanyahu to speak before Congress without alerting the White House; Danny Danon, his envoy to the U.N., blamed Obama’s “lack of leadership” for Turkish and Iranian aggression; and Ran Baratz, whom Netanyahu appointed last month as his media chief, wrote on his Facebook page that the President was anti-Semitic and that Kerry had the mental abilities of a twelve-year-old.
Well, at least Danon and Baratz are honest.... But really, is this any way to treat a friend?

Our 'friend' also tried really hard to give the Golan Heights to Syria. Thank God Netanyahu didn't listen.
Assad told Kerry that, in order to make peace with Israel, he had to get back the Golan Heights, territory lost in the 1967 war. For that to be considered, Kerry replied, Syria would have to cease the transit of arms through Syria to Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and to Hamas, in Gaza.
“We basically delivered him a pretty strong message of, ‘You better stop this or else,’ ” Kerry told me. “But I also engaged with him, because he wanted to talk about another subject—a relationship with Israel in the future. I don’t think I’ve ever talked about this publicly, but he was ready to make a deal with Israel. And the proof of that is a letter I still have that he wrote and signed proposing a structure by which he was willing to recognize Israel, have an embassy there, make peace, deal with the Golan, et cetera.” (A representative of the Syrian government denied that Assad ever wrote such a letter; he also denied that Assad took any oppressive measures in 2011.) Syria asked Kerry for economic assistance, including a pipeline to Iraq and aid for technology and health care. When Netanyahu was told of the discussions, he was reluctant. “Bibi came to Washington, and one of the first things out of his mouth in the Oval Office was ‘I can’t do this. I’m not going to—I just can’t.’ ”
 ...
The issue was rendered moot in March, 2011, when the revolution began in Syria. As the Syrian regime increased its level of cruelty from month to month—beginning with the police torturing young protesters and moving on to the indiscriminate killing of many thousands, using barrel bombs—all talk of the “soft-spoken British-educated ophthalmologist,” of Assad as the reformist hope of Syria, was eclipsed.
Kerry shook his head at the memory of it. At dinner in Damascus, Assad had told Kerry and Heinz about how his mother could no longer go to a local mosque dressed in a skirt. He talked about how female college classmates, professional women, were now in hijab. “We want to be a secular country,” Assad said, according to Kerry. “We don’t want to be inundated by this.”
Kerry went on, “I had an impression that this guy had serious business plans, growth plans, development plans, wanted to change.” When I pressed him to describe Assad in terms of his crimes, he backed off. “You know what? I want to try to talk common sense to him through this process, and I do not want to get into any—it’s just the inappropriate moment for me to . . .”
Kerry doesn't get Assad, he doesn't get Israel and he doesn't get the Middle East. But he's trying diplomatically to manipulate all of them and with Obama a lame duck they have nothing to lose. What could go wrong?

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Sunday, October 25, 2015

Hmmm.... UPDATED

No confirmation on this yet.
But here's another source with a few more details (see the comments too).
UPDATE SUNDAY 2:22 PM

It turns out they were after an Israeli Arab who paraglided over the border into Syria, probably to join ISIS. Once the IDF concluded he went there of his own free will, they withdrew.

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Friday, October 23, 2015

Russia - not Israel - is touting strategic cooperation

It is Russia - and not Israel - that has gone public about the strategic coordination between the two countries. The Israelis, while realistic about the decline in American activity in the region due to the Obama administration's tendency toward isolationism and Islamophilic behavior, nevertheless do not wish to stick it in the United States' face, probably in the hope that some day a different administration will take charge. The Russians, on the other hand, have no reason to hedge their bets and are proud that Israel is cooperating with their camp.

"We don't interfere with them and they don't interfere with us," Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon said in a radio interview, tersely summing up Israel's accommodation with Russia.
Another reason Israel is holding back could be because it does not know the full extent of Russia's plans for Syria or what effect they could have on Assad's allies – Iran and the Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah.
A de-facto axis between Moscow and Israel's two most powerful regional enemies could seem an unsettling scenario for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, but it might also be seen as providing a moderating influence.
"The new order in the Middle East is loose coalitions for specific purposes, so a Russian partnership with Iran and Hezbollah to save Assad is not necessarily bad for us," a Netanyahu confidant told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Russian President Vladimir Putin "is not looking to mess with Israel, and it's unlikely he would look kindly on Iran or Hezbollah messing with Israel now, either," the confidant said.
The assurance has been echoed by Russia, which hosted Netanyahu for Syria "deconfliction" talks on Sept. 21.
It took until this week for the United States, whose forces have long been in sync with Israel on Syria, to agree on similar coordination with Russia.

...



Shein said Russia was familiar with the reasoning behind past Israeli air strikes in Syria, including against alleged arms transfers by Iran or Assad's army to Hezbollah, and "fully aware of Israel's strategic importance in the Middle East."

But he said Syria's neighbors and overall regional stability were threatened by the conflict, suggesting Israeli security might be best served by an Assad victory.

Israel called for Assad to be ousted after the civil war began but the Netanyahu government has recently preferred neutral rhetoric even though Western powers continue to demand an eventual change of leadership in Syria.

...



Moscow, meanwhile, has made no secret of seeing vindication for its Syria strategy in the Netanyahu government's posture.

"Israel’s prudence from the outbreak of the conflict in Syria has become apparent in the fact that Israel did not consider the overthrow of President Assad as an indispensable condition to avoid foreign intervention and impediment for the beginning of a national reconciliation," Shein said.

He linked this to what he described as Israel's "wisdom" in not taking sides when Russia seized the Crimea region from Ukraine last year following the removal of a Ukrainian president who was sympathetic to Moscow.

"I hope it reflects concern for the development of Russian-Israeli relations in a true, friendly and cooperative manner," Shein said.

Israeli officials have spoken respectfully, but not lavishly, about their evolving relationship with Russia.

A diplomatic dividend such as Russian recognition of Israel's ownership of the Golan Heights is nowhere on the horizon, and Moscow's growing relationship with Iran worries the Netanyahu government.


 What could go wrong?

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Thursday, October 22, 2015

Report: Israeli satellites spying on Russian support for Assad

Defense News reports that Israeli satellites are keeping a close watch on Russian efforts to prop up the Assad regime. You don't say....
Images captured earlier this month from the Eros-B, a dual-use imaging satellite owned and operated by ImageSat International, reveal high operational tempo at Latakia International Airport, where Moscow has based some 12 Su-25 fighters, a similar amount of Su-24 bombers, 16 Mi-35 attack helicopters and a small amount of Su-30 and Su-34 aircraft.
Outsized Antonov 124 and Ilyushin Il-76 cargo aircraft are seen offloading additional cargo, all of which is protected by at least one SAM-22 surface-to-air missile system.
In an image dated Oct. 10, support vehicles and open cockpit canopies indicate high levels of alert while another image taken on the same day shows a foursome of Su-30 attack fighters in so-called fast launch positions at the end of the runway.
Such imagery taken by the relatively low end of Israel’s satellite force represents a mere snapshot of the Jewish state’s persistent ability to monitor areas of interest throughout Syria and beyond.
With more than a handful of satellites orbiting the Earth at 90-minute intervals, Israel has multiple opportunities every day to revisit suspected sites.
...
IDF officers and their Russian counterparts plan to hold their second round of so-called deconfliction talks in Moscow later next month, with an eye toward establishing a mechanism to prevent unintended consequences in the event that Russian and Israeli aircraft are flying in the same airspace.
 Hmmm.

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Sunday, October 18, 2015

ICYMI: Russia intercepts Israeli jets on Syrian border

Shavua tov, a good week to all of you.

A short-lived headline from last night that may have long-term consequences.
Hmmm.

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