#ThanksObama... for making America's former allies into our allies
It's not just Israel that doesn't trust Barack Hussein Obama. And in one of the best examples of countries having interests rather than friends, a group of previously irreconcilable American allies has joined together look out for their own interests in the waning days of the Age of Obama. Bret Stephens reports.
I’ve spent the better part of a week talking to senior officials,
journalists, intellectuals and politicians from across Israel’s
political spectrum. None of it was on the record, but the consistent
theme is that, while the Jewish state still needs the U.S., especially
in the form of military aid, it also needs to diversify its strategic
partnerships. This may yet turn out to be the historic achievement of Benjamin Netanyahu’s long reign as prime minister.
On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon publicly shook hands with former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal at the Munich Security Conference. In January, Israeli cabinet member Yuval Steinitz
made a trip to Abu Dhabi, where Israel is opening an office at a
renewable-energy association. Turkey is patching up ties with Israel. In
June, Jerusalem and Riyadh went public with the strategic talks between
them. In March, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi told the Washington Post that he speaks to Mr. Netanyahu “a lot.”
This
de facto Sunni-Jewish alliance amounts to what might be called the
coalition of the disenchanted; states that have lost faith in America’s
promises. Israel is also reinventing its ties to the aspiring Startup
Nations, countries that want to develop their own innovation cultures.
In October, Israel hosted Indian President Pranab Mukherjee
for a three-day state visit; New Delhi, once a paragon of the
nonaligned movement that didn’t have diplomatic ties to Israel for four
decades, is about to spend $3 billion on Israeli arms. Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe, who is personally close to Mr. Netanyahu, sees
Israel as a model for economic reinvention. Chinese investment in Israel
hit $2.7 billion last year, up from $70 million in 2010. In 2014,
Israel’s exports to the Far East for the first time exceeded those to
the U.S.
Then there is Europe—at least the part of it that is
starting to grasp that it can’t purchase its security in the coin of
Israeli insecurity. Greece’s left-wing Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras
used to lead anti-Israel protests. But Greece needs Israeli gas, so he
urges cooperation on terrorism and calls Jerusalem Israel’s “historic
capital.” In the U.K., Prime Minister David Cameron’s government is moving to prevent local councils from passing Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) measures against Israel.
All
this amounts to another Obama administration prediction proved wrong.
“You see for Israel there’s an increasing delegitimization campaign that
has been building up,” Mr. Kerry warned grimly in 2014. “There are
talks of boycotts and other kinds of things. Today’s status quo
absolutely, to a certainty, I promise you 100%, cannot be maintained.”
Except when the likely alternatives to the lousy status quo are worse.
Maybe we need to say #ThanksObama after all. Just not the way he expected. Heh.
Another US ally with a lot to worry about from the Iran sellout
There's another US ally outside of Israel and the Persian Gulf whose interests are taking a serious beating as a result of the Obama-Kerry sellout to Iran: India.
India's primary concern, however, remains neighbouring Pakistan.
As this nuclear deal sets a Shiite Iran on the highway to a nuclear
bomb, rival Sunni-Arab nations are getting jittery about the prospect of
living in an Iranian-dominated Middle East.
Pakistan would be the preferred one-stop shop from Sunni-Arab nations
to acquire a "turnkey" nuclear bomb. Saudi Arabia has apparently
financed Pakistan's clandestine nuclear program for decades and hopes
get an "off the shelf" nuclear bomb in return. U.S. President Barack
Obama might be right about not allowing a nuclear Iran "on his watch,"
but after he leaves the White House -- and because of him -- the nuclear
landscape of the Middle East might be "radiating" like a pinball
machine.
The multi-billion dollar nuclear deals between Pakistan and
Sunni-Arab nations will be brokered by the Pakistani Army, and the money
will largely go to fund Islamist infrastructure and jihadist
insurgencies in Kashmir and beyond.
As is the case with Obamacare domestically (the real economic hit occurs too late to affect Obama's standing while he's in the White House), so too with the sellout to a nuclear Iran.
Greetings once again from thirty-something thousand feet. This time I'm on my way to... Philadelphia (sorry Philly fans - not staying very long and not planning to leave the airport).
Remember President Hussein Obama's and Hillary Clinton's non-existent 'Asia re-pivot' from the first term? Michael Rubin argues that it's Israel that ought to be re-pivoting toward Asia and away from the Jew-hating Europeans.
Israel has long considered itself almost a European country; the
European immigration that marked early Zionism shaped that character,
even if geography and immigration from Turkey, Iran, India, and the Arab
world also bestowed Israel with a Middle Eastern character. Indeed, Tel
Aviv is much like Alexandria and Beirut once were, and like Istanbul
still is, at least for the time being: a veritable mixing grounds of
east and west.
For too long, however, Israel has if not ignored Asia than put it on
the backburner. Sure, there was been sporadic outreach to China, but
this was both half-hearted and misguided: When it comes to the Middle
East, Beijing is the ultimate realist. Immediate commercial concerns
means everything, broader principle mean little if anything.
India—the world’s largest democracy—was largely hostile to the Jewish
state for the same reason it was hostile to the United States. Indian
nationalist diplomat Vengalil Krishnan Krishna Menon coined the term
‘non-alignment’ in a 1953 United Nations speech, and the following year
Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, co-founded the
Non-Aligned Movement. In theory, it sought a third path separate from
the Cold War rivalry between the Soviet Union and the United States but
in practice it was marked by disproportionate hostility to the West.
Non-alignment, a fondness for socialism, and a suffocating
bureaucracy hostile both to direct foreign investment and free market
enterprises long restrained India’s economic potential. While India
still has a way to go, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sought to bring
India’s economy, political culture, and foreign into the 21st
century. He recognizes how much India and Israel have in common. They
are both democracies in a region where democracies otherwise have not
thrived. And Islamist radicals target them both. In the case of both,
land disputes — be they have Jerusalem and its environs in Israel’s
case, or the Kashmir in India’s — are only an excuse for a far more
murderous agenda.
Earlier this year, Modi announced that he would become the first Indian leader to visit Israel. Among tech-savvy Indians, the twitter hashtag #IndiaWithIsrael is trending. Nor does it seem that Modi’s looming visit will be the end-all and be-all of warming ties. As COMMENTARY readers know, the UN Human Rights Council has long been a cesspool of anti-Israel and anti-Semitic bias. Consider these statistics
of cumulative Council condemnations from its founding in 2006 to the
present: Israel has been condemned more than 60 times, yet slave-holding
Mauritania, blogger-whipping Saudi Arabia, journalist-repressing
Turkey, freedom-extinguishing China, migrant worker-killing Qatar, and
expansionist Russia have faced no condemnation. Condemning Israel has
become a knee-jerk reaction around the world and, for decades, it has
been India’s position as well. But on Friday, July 3, India shocked
the Council by abstaining on its condemnation of Israeli actions in
last year’s Gaza War. Now an abstention isn’t the same as a vote
against, but clearly India-Israel relations are on the upswing, or could
be if Israeli leaders are willing to work hard to cultivate them.
But India is not alone. The Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC)
has long sought to cultivate ties between Israel and other Southeast
Asian countries—Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, and
even Malaysia. The momentum is promising, as have been the results
considering the relatively small scale. If Israel made a concerted
effort to cultivate these ties, they might find a much more receptive
audience than in past years. Not only would this create a strategic
buffer, but it might also correct the narrative that all Muslims embrace
the radical, anti-peace positions put forward by more rejectionist Arab
states and European and American proponents of the Boycott, Divestment,
and Sanctions (BDS) movement. After all, Indonesia is the largest
Muslim country on earth by population, and India the second largest,
even though it is not even majority Muslim.
Such diplomacy need not be an either-or scenario, but just as
Washington navel-gazes and forgets that the United States and the
targets of our interest are not alone in the sandbox, so, too, do
Europeans forget that they are not the world’s moral barometer or the
doyens of the elite club with which everyone wants favor. Not only is
Southeast Asia booming as many of its countries largely abandon ruinous
socialist practices and authoritarianism, but many now also face the
same Islamist terror threat which Israel has been confronting for
decades.
By the way, found out yesterday that someone we know - an American married to a Spaniard living in France for more than 20 years - is immigrating to Israel this summer with her family. Last Jew out of Europe should please shut the lights of decency, human rights and intellectual achievement. Europe's brain drain is exactly what it deserves.
World leaders have been streaming into the country to pay their
respects to the powerful kingdom, which controls one of the world's
largest reserves of oil. The late King Abdullah had been a close friend
of the United States, but the new king, Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud is
less known in the West.
The president has been on a bad streak of late. He skipped the Paris
march after the massacre at the Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris, instead
watching NFL playoof football. The White House later acknowledged that
it should have sent someone with a "higher profile" than just the U.S.
ambassador to France.
Then this week, the White House announced that Obama will not see the
Israeli Prime Minister on his March visit to address Congress, calling
the invitation from House Speaker John Boehner a breach of protocol. But
the president did make time on Thursday to visit with a YouTube star
who once took a bath in a tub filled with milk and Fruit Loops,
prompting much ridicule.
Now, with the change announced Saturday by the White House, Biden will
stay in Washington as Obama makes the trip to Saudi Arabia.
But once again, Obama will be a day late and a dollar short. He won't
stop in Riyadh until Tuesday, while Russia's Prime Minister Dmitry
Medvedev, Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron, French President
Francois Hollande and Japan's Crown Prince Naruhito will visit on
Saturday and Sunday to offer condolences.
Well, maybe Obama is afraid that Hollande will treat him about as well as Netanyahu does.
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew will represent the United States at the
70th anniversary ceremony for the liberation of the Auschwitz
concentration camp on Tuesday—rather than President Barack Obama or Vice
President Joe Biden—while other countries are slated to send their
heads of state.
Tuesday’s ceremony will likely be the last major anniversary where a
significant number of survivors of the Nazi camp are present. About 300
are expected to attend, and most of them are in their 90s or older than
100. Nazi authorities killed 1.1 million people at the camp, mostly Jews, which was liberated by the Soviet army in January 1945.
The New York Timesreported on the foreign dignitaries that would be present:
A preliminary list of those attending includes President
François Hollande of France, President Joachim Gauck of Germany and
President Heinz Fischer of Austria, as well as King Philippe of Belgium,
King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands and Crown Prince Frederik of
Denmark. The United States delegation will be led by Treasury Secretary
Jacob J. Lew.
The White House claims that Obama will be in India on a 'long-scheduled' trip. As if they didn't know when the liberation of Auschwitz took place. At least he'll avoid Hollande there too.
Obama, who will be the first U.S. president
to be the chief guest at the Republic Day parade, will be accompanied by
his wife Michelle Obama and a team of senior officials in his
administration.
On the first day
of his visit, the American president and Prime Minister Narendra Modi
are to hold talks on the entire gamut of bilateral ties and discuss ways
to enhance ties in defense and nuclear energy. The two sides have
already decided to renew a new defense pact for 10 years and to start
joint development and production of military hardware.
Obama’s
visit, his second to India, is also expected to give a fillip to the
seven-year-old civil nuclear deal, stalled over tough provisions in the
Civil Nuclear Liability Act here.
During
the September meeting between Obama and Modi, the two leaders decided
to set up a high-level Contact Group on civil nuclear cooperation. The
group has held two rounds of detailed discussions on a range of
implementation issues, including administrative, liability, technical
and licensing to facilitate the establishment of U.S.-designed nuclear
power plants in India.
...
After their meeting, Modi and Obama will
make press statements. The U.S. president will also attend the banquet
in his honor by President Pranab Mukherjee at Rashtrapati Bhawan,
according to information available here.
On
the second day of his visit, Obama will attend the Republic Day parade
and later, along with Modi, take part in a CEO roundtable.On the final day of the visit, Obama is expected to address a town hall. However, the time and place have not been finalized.
An advance U.S. team is scheduled to be here this week to finalize security and protocol issues with its Indian counterparts.
Before
his departure from India, the president and the First Lady are to visit
the Taj Mahal, the monument to love in Agra. Obama's wife Michelle
accompanied the U.S. president during their four-day trip in 2010 but
the couple could not travel to Agra,
'A tectonic change in the country's foreign policy'
אני מאחל לחבריי בני הדת היהודית חג חנוכה שמח! מי יתן שחג אורים זה, ותקופה זו של חגיגות תבשר שלום, תקווה ורווחה לכל.
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) December 19, 2014
The tweet at the top of this post came from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In this Hebrew-language tweet, he wishes the Jewish people a happy Chanuka and expresses his hope that this holiday and this period will bring peace, hope and prosperity to all.
Modi and his government are also beginning to put actions behind their words. On Monday, it was reported that India will no longer back the 'Palestinians' at the United Nations. They apparently don't dare to vote with us yet, but they say that they will abstain.
In what could amount to a tectonic shift in the country’s foreign
policy, the Modi government is looking at altering India’s supporting
vote for the Palestinian cause at the United Nations to one of
abstention.
Two sources within the government confirmed to The Hindu that the
change, which will be a fundamental departure from India’s support to
the cause of a Palestinian state, was under consideration.
“Like other foreign policy issues, the Modi government is looking at
India’s voting record at the United Nations on the Palestinian issue,” a
government source told The Hindu. The change only needs an
administrative nod, the second source said.
Despite the growing defence and diplomatic ties with Israel, the UPA
government, which junked traditional ally Iran to vote with the United
States at the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2005, had baulked at
making any change in India’s support to the Palestinians.
Even former Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee’s government, which invited
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to India in 2003, did not amend
India’s voting record at the U.N.
I'd like to see them go all the way and vote with us, but this is a start.
A convergence of commercial interests have led the
People’s Republic of China and the State of Israel to develop an
increasingly integrated bilateral economic partnership that is poised to
flourish over the next decade. Bilateral trade has experienced a
200-fold increase since diplomatic ties were formally established in
1992, surging from $50 million to $10 billion in 2013, with plans to
double that figure in the next few years….
Increasingly, China has turned to Israel to acquire the technology
necessary to maximize agricultural output and efficiency, as well as to
develop a proficient water purification and reclamation apparatus that
can sustain the Middle Kingdom’s urbanization and economic expansion
throughout the 21st century. As a nation that boasts 22 percent of the
global population, but just seven percent of the world’s arable land,
developing a sustainable agriculture sector to efficiently maximize
output remains a pressing concern for China…. To address this growing
concern, China and Israel signed a deal worth $300 million in 2012 to
export Israeli water technology that will improve agricultural
efficiency in China.
A year after Mr. Netanyahu’s [2013] visit, Chinese Vice Premier Liu
Yandong made a similar trip to Jerusalem in May 2014 with nearly 400
Chinese government and business officials to forge new avenues of
economic collaboration. One of the hallmarks of the trip was the signing
of a bilateral agreement between Tel Aviv University (TAU) and Tsinghua
University in Beijing to jointly invest $300 million to establish the
XIN Center for scientific exchange and collaboration. According to
officials from TAU, the center will “pursue strategic cooperation in
research and teaching and serve as an international hub for scientific
and technical innovation” while focusing on research and development
projects in a variety of sectors including sustainable agriculture,
solar power, water reclamation, and biotechnology.
First thing to notice is the numbers. But the second thing is that
this isn’t a weapons sales relationship; it is more broadly based, with a
special focus on agriculture.
Israel is also building its economic ties to India. Trade is now over
$4 billion, and mostly weaponry: India is now the largest purchaser of
Israeli arms. But that may change: Reuters reports
that “Israel Ports Co. is partnering India’s Cargo Motors to build a
deepwater port in Gujarat, and Israel’s TowerJazz is teaming up with
India’s Jaiprakash Associates and IBM with plans to build a $5.6 billion
chip plant near Delhi.”
Israel's defense industry gets huge kudos this morning after India has chosen Israel's Spike anti-tank missile system over the United States' Javelin system. The contract is worth half a billion dollars.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will buy 8,356 Spike
missiles and 321 launchers from Israel in a deal worth 32 billion rupees
($525 million), defense ministry sources told AFP.
The government is moving to speed up long-delayed defense orders and
bolster its military. The Israeli deal comes after recent firing along
India's border with nuclear-armed rival Pakistan and tensions with giant
neighbor China.
The procurement deals, worth 800 billion rupees ($13.1 billion) in
total, were cleared at a meeting of India's Defense Acquisition Council,
headed by Defense Minister Arun Jaitley, on Saturday.
"It (the council) has cleared a deal for Spikes," a defense ministry official, who asked not to be named, told AFP.
"It's a fire and forget kind of missile," the official said, referring to the fact the missile locks onto targets before firing.
"You can say there was a rival bid from the US for its Javelin
missiles," the official said, adding that India's army trialed the Spike
missiles "successfully last year".
Significantly, this latest development comes just one month after
India agreed to buy 262 Israeli-made Barak 1 surface-to-air missiles for
its navy, to the tune of $144 million.
India is currently the largest buyer of Israeli defense hardware, and
Israel's military delegation to India is second only in size to its
delegation to America. The two countries also have a Joint Working group
on counter-terrorism, with bilateral ties flourishing under India's new
Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
...
Modi and US President Barack Obama agreed on greater defense
cooperation during a meeting in Washington last month, when the US
reportedly lobbied for its Javelin missiles.
"The DAC (Defense Acquisition Council) took the decision based on
purely technical reasons and based on hard facts. It had been on the
agenda for some time," another unnamed defense ministry official told AFP.
Israel's defense industry has demonstrated once again that it is capable of independence. That has huge implications for future relations with the United States. Change - but good change for once.
This could be big - really big. On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly on Sunday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu met with Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi. This is from Modi's website.
The two leaders reviewed the robust relationship, and rapidly growing
trade. They also discussed how ties could be further expanded. The
Israeli side briefed the Prime Minister on their perception of the
situation in West Asia.
Defence ties and cooperation in the field of computer software, and cyber security were also discussed.
Issues of water management and agriculture in arid areas came up for
discussion, with Israel offering to share its technology in this regard.
The Prime Minister also outlined his vision of waste water management
and solid waste management in 500 towns across India.
The Israeli Prime Minister extended an invitation to Shri Narendra Modi to visit Israel.
A sign of the ties between India and Israel becoming closer is the
refusal of the Modi government to condemn Israel in parliament for its
actions in the Gaza as demanded by the Congress and some other parties.
This led to a walkout from the Lok Sabha by the Congress and two other
parties. Modi has not held meetings with Palestinian or other West Asian
leaders during his visit here.
In discussing defence relations, Modi told Netanyahu about his "Make
in India" program and pointed out that 49 percent investment was
possible in defence industries, Syed Akbaruddin, the External Affairs
Ministry spokesman said. Cooperation in cybersecurity was also
discussed.
Modi made a pitch for Israeli investments and they discussed boosting
bilateral trade that now stands at about 6 billion US dollars.
...
While discussing cooperation in the fields of software and computers,
Netanyahu mentioned that when he had worked in areas relating to
technology he found in California that a large number of workers were
Indians or Israelis.
...
Modi told him - and an earlier delegation of Jewish leaders from the
American Jewish Congress - that India is proud of its tradition of
tolerance towards Jews and and absence of discrimination against them.
Netanyahu and the Jewish leaders acknowledged that anti-Semitism was
never in India.
This could be huge - both economically and politically. As Netanyahu said, the sky's the limit. Keep an eye on this one.
By the way, lately I have noticed that I have several new Twitter followers from India. Hmmm.
Meet Narenda Modi, a right-wing Hindu nationalist, who was just elected Prime Minister of India. He is strongly pro-Israel.
Modi is a Hindu
nationalist and considered to be right-wing in Indian politics. Born
into a poor family where he sold tea with his father as a child, he rose
to prominence as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, a Western province in
India.
There he gained
recognition as a charismatic leader as he reversed economic trends in
the province to make it one of India's most important Industrial and
financial centers.
Part of his success was due to a public relations campaign and
financial incentives to encourage investment in development within
Gujarat. Israel was reportedly one of Modi's greatest allies in economic
progress according to the International Business Times. He has visited
Israel in the past and has publicly supported it.
Modi came to power as leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
which has supported his close political and financial ties with Israel,
who invested billions of dollars in Gujarat during Modi's time as its
leader.
In the latter half of
2013, agreements were signed with Israeli company Tower Semiconductor
and a Swiss company to open two semiconductor fabrication plants (one of
which would be in Gujarat) at a cost of $10.4 billion.
The two plants are projected to create 22,000 jobs. Indian
consumption of the semiconductor products for electronic chips to be
made at the plants is due to rise from $7 billion in 2014 to $55 billion
in 2020, paving the way for investment in additional plants.
"Gujarat is a business-oriented state and this (memorandum of
understanding) will help both Israeli and Gujarat-based companies in
developing and strengthening the industrial relationship," said Israel's
Consul General in Mumbai, Jonathan Miller, to Israel National News.
"Our focus is on increasing research ties with Gujarat. Israel
is keen to increase research and development and cultural ties with
Gujarat," said Miller who also added that a free-trade agreement may be
on the horizon for the two countries.
Miller also spoke on Indian TV to discuss Israeli involvement in
agricultural projects. "Israel is a world leader in advanced
agriculture technologies. Israel's success lies in the determination and
ingenuity of farmers and scientists and in the close cooperation
between R&D and industry," said Miller.
...
Yet, it isn't only
for financial gain that Israel finds itself naturally partnered with
Modi's BJP. Anti-Pakistan and anti-Islamic rhetoric from BJP officials
over the years has drawn India closer to Israel politically and
ideologically as they also search for ways to cooperate in fighting
terrorism.
The National security adviser from a previous BJP government said in
Washington that India, Israel, and the US must, "jointly face the same
ugly face of modern-day terrorism." The comments came in the wake of the
September 11 terrorist attacks in New York City and preceded the first
state visit from an Israeli Prime Minister to India.
The US and the Europeans don't particularly care for Modi. While he was Chief Minister of Gujarat, they denied him visas because they felt he didn't do enough to stop Muslim on Hindu rioting.
Sounds like just the kind of ally we need these days. How did our Leftist foreign ministry ever let this happen?
India warned Israel about terror plot against Israeli tourists - Mumbai attack against Israelis an 'error'?
The Hindustan Times reports that India's intelligence agencies warned Israel last month about a plot by the Indian Mujahideen to attack Israeli tourists. More interesting, the Times reports that after the November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai - in which the Chabad House in the city was a key focal point - the Pakistanis sent a message to Israel via the Turkish army (which generally opposes Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan - or did in 2008 before all its high-ranking officers were arrested) that the Israeli deaths in those attacks were 'an error.'
The home ministry carried out a joint security review of Pushkar,
Jodhpur and Jaisalmer — all popular tourist destinations for Israeli and
other foreign tourists — with the Rajasthan police. The Israeli embassy
was briefed by Indian counterterrorism officials, but did not issue a
warning to tourists “beyond the normal.”
The existence of a Rajasthan IM module was revealed by the
investigation that followed the recent arrest of IM co-founder Yasin
Bhatkal. He revealed that IM has split on ideological lines.
A Brahma temple in Pushkar was cited by Bhatkal as being particularly
popular among Israelis. This temple had been considered by
Lashkar-e-Tayyeba scout David Headley as a terror target.
The IM cluster led by Iqbal Bhatkal, Riyaz Bhatkal and Mohsin
Choudhary takes its cue from the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence
agency. The ISI wants the terrorist group to remain focused on mainland
India.
The Pakistanis are also nervous about putting Israeli in the
crosshairs given the Jewish state’s policy of violent retaliation
against terror attacks. Sources have claimed that after the Mumbai 26/11
attack, the Pakistan military sent an unofficial message through the
Turkish army to Israel claiming the Israeli deaths were an error.
These concerns led the ISI to raid a Defence Housing Authority house
in Karachi where IM cadres were being housed and took away
communications equipment and weaponry in June.
Asia to replace Europe as Israel's biggest trading partner?
In light of last month's publication of Europe's Nuremberg guidelines, which seek to force Israel to declare that Judea, Samaria, 'east' Jerusalem and the Golan Heights are not part of our country, there are increasing calls in Israel to turn away from Europe toward Asia as its main trading partner. Here's former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations Dore Gold.
[Former Middle East expert for the US Vice President's office David] Wurmser concludes that Israel
make Asia its preferred export destination and not Europe. This is a
decision Israel will have to make as it influences how it builds its
energy infrastructure. If Europe begins to present itself as an
unreliable trading partner, then there will be many more Israeli voices
who adopt the idea of making Asia into Israel's preferred market for its
gas exports.
Professor Yisrael Aumann, Nobel prize winner in Economics, reaches a similar conclusion in an interview with Yisrael HaYom.
Is there an alternative to the West?
"There's an economic awakening in Asia --
China, Korea, India, Singapore, Kazakhstan. That's something new. It
increases global competition, and competition is good for the economy. I
see it as a good thing, not just for Israel but for the whole world."
Do you see it as the rise of a new civilization in place of the one we've known so far?
"I don't want to be that kind of prophet. It's
obvious that the Far East is waking up, but it's still too early to
talk about the decline of the West. The Chinese asked me what I
suggested for them. I said: 'Learn English now so that in another 50
years, the whole world will learn Chinese.' They're not interested in us
for nothing. Despite the political difficulties, there are games that
we, as a nation, are winning. Israeli scientific research is such a
victory. So are Israeli technology and the start-ups -- what the world
calls 'the start-up nation.'"
Gold believes that Europe needs Israel economically more than Israel needs Europe.
A
German adviser to Chancellor Angela Merkel told The Jerusalem Post last
month that European cooperation with Israel in research and development
in the EU's Horizon 2020 program is a European interest and not just an
Israeli interest.
The background to the
EU's program with Israel is the need for Europe to improve its global
competitiveness and increase jobs and economic growth on the continent
after years of sluggish growth. The Horizon 2020 program is not a
European handout to Israel, but a joint initiative by which Israel puts
up funds by itself and receives 1.6 euros for joint research and
development for every euro it puts in.
Because of its
scientific prowess, Israel is the only non-European country to have been
invited to take part in this program. The Europeans knew what they were
doing by inviting Israel, which is no longer viewed as a country known
only for its Jaffa oranges, as it was in the 1950s. Clearly, both sides
benefit from this cooperation and both have much to lose by its
politicization by EU bureaucrats in Brussels.
So what were the
Europeans thinking when they got Israel involved in the first place?
Economists have long recognized that knowledge-based industries are the
fastest-growing portion of the global economy, and serve as engines for
economic growth. These are precisely the technological fields in which
Israel leads and which Europe needs.
In their book "Start-Up
Nation," Dan Senor and Saul Singer quote an American high-tech
executive who admits that for companies like Google, Microsoft, and
Intel, "the best-kept secret is that we all live and die by the work of
our Israeli teams."
Why should Europe
jeopardize its cooperation with Israel, which has served as such an
important partner for the U.S. companies? To go down the path of
limiting its scientific cooperation with Israel seems to be, ultimately,
a self-defeating policy for Europe itself.
Then there is the issue
of Israel's offshore gas fields. Europe presently imports most of its
gas from Russia and from North Africa. David Wurmser used to serve as a
Middle East expert for the U.S. vice president's office and later
advised Noble Energy, which is involved in Israeli gas exploration. He
points out in a paper for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs that
there are today five existing or planned pipelines connecting Europe
with the gas of North Africa. Four of the pipelines come through
Algeria, which is facing growing threats from al-Qaida affiliates.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, as in Sinai, they have shown their
readiness to sabotage such pipelines. Having another source of gas from
Israel could be critical for Europe if some of its current energy
sources do not come available.
Aumann, whose specialty is game theory, believes that Israel doesn't need European money for scientific cooperation.
"The scientific cooperation
doesn't depend on money. It doesn't depend on grants. On the contrary.
The grants depend on the scientific cooperation. Here at the Center for
the Study of Rationality, we had long-term cooperation without European
money. The money doesn't create cooperation, so it doesn't look like it
will be affected."
Aumann's manner is calm even when I mention
things that should be upsetting -- not just to him, of course, but also
to the entire institution of higher education. This is how he responds
to Hebrew University Professor Shai Arkin's statement that severing
research relationships would damage the universality of Israeli research
and make it provincial:
"I don't share those concerns. It seems to me
that there was good cooperation with the Europeans and the Americans
before, and it will go on afterward, too. The Europeans aren't
threatening to sever scientific connections. Scientific connections
aren't money. I had a case where I had a close scientific connection
with one of the European researchers. He visited us in Israel often. One
day, he joined the boycott of Israel. We were shocked and acted in a
way that resulted in him losing more than we did. We continued to
thrive. Now it's different. I'm afraid of what could happen if we give
in."
What do you mean?
"We're opening a door here for worse things to
happen -- for there to be no scientific cooperation at all. The next
stage could be a threat that if we don't leave Judea, Samaria and
Jerusalem now, a scientific boycott will be declared against all of
Israel, not only on the institutions in Judea and Samaria. The thought
that concessions bring calm is inaccurate. If we agree to a boycott of
Judea and Samaria and don't resist it, thinking that we'll be left alone
if we consent, we'll get the opposite result.
"The thing is that the people who are shouting
that it's bad for Israel's scientific community are the same ones who
have it in for Judea and Samaria anyway. So they're not exactly acting
out of pure intentions toward Israeli scientific research. I admit that
this applies in the reverse situation, too -- as far as people who
support living in Judea and Samaria, as I do. The question is not
entirely political, but politics are involved, at least partially. Most
of the people who are terribly worried about the future of Israel's
scientific research are on the left side of the barricades anyway, and
those who aren't so concerned hold different political opinions."
Is Israel's scientific research dependent on Europe?
"Israeli scientific research isn't dependent
on Europe. Still, scientific cooperation with Europe, and mainly with
the United States, is an important factor. But that's scientific
cooperation; we're not getting any money from the Europeans.
Incidentally, cooperation isn't important just to us, but to them too."
What's unmentioned in either article is the increasing Islamization in Europe, which is likely to assure (as if Europe's anti-Semites needed the push) that these sorts of initiatives from Europe will continue. In 50 years, Europe may well be a backwater to western civilization, but a center of Islam. Israel should start pushing for Asian markets now to get in on the ground floor. Perhaps the next President of the United States will similarly stop that country's euro-centrism.
Holzberg lawsuit thrown out, Pakistani intelligence granted immunity from prosecution for Mumbai
On Wednesday, a New York Federal court dismissed a lawsuit filed by the families of Rabbi Gavriel and Rivki Holzberg against Pakistani intelligence officers, after being told that two former heads of ISI, the Pakistani intelligence agency (equivalent to the CIA) were granted immunity from prosecution, and could not be prosecuted for the Mumbai terror attacks in the United States. The CIA and the US military cut the deal.
The US summons had deeply upset the Pakistani military establishment,
which was of the view that the spy chief of a friendly country should
not have been treated like this. On December 16, 2010, shortly after the
issuance of the summons, the Islamabad Police had moved to register a
murder case against the then CIA station chief in Pakistan, Jonathan
Banks, who was supervising the deadly drone campaign in the tribal
areas. The complainant was a resident of North Waziristan, who wanted a
murder case to be registered against Jonathan for the killings of his
son and brother in a drone attack in December 2009.
The standoff had pushed the CIA and ISI into an eyeball-to-eyeball
confrontation, compelling the military leadership of the two countries
to hold a secret moot in a third country to resolve the crisis. The
Pakistani side made it clear that any understanding to improve the ties,
including the release of Davis, would include the withdrawal of the
summons against the ISI chief. Subsequent to the clandestine deal,
Raymond Davis was set free on March 16, 2011 by a Pakistani court after
the families of the two killed men were paid $2.4 million as blood
money. The CIA agent was immediately taken out of Pakistan.
Almost a year later, the US State Department has informed a New York
court that the defendants in the Mumbai attacks case — Ahmed Shuja Pasha
and Nadeem Taj — are immune from the law suit. The State Department
also pointed out that its determination was not subject to judicial
review. The US court had issued summons in November 2010 to Lt Gen Ahmed
Shuja Pasha, Lt Gen Nadeem Taj, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, Zakiur Rehman
Lakhvi and five serving and retired Majors of the Pakistan Army for
their alleged involvement in the Mumbai attacks, asking them to appear
before it. The court was hearing a
law suit filed by the relatives of Gavriel Noah Holtzberg, an American
Jew and his wife Rivka who were shot dead at the Chhabad House in Mumbai
during the 2008 terror strikes. Their son, Moshe, was saved by his
Indian nanny.
Filed on November 19, 2012, the 26-page lawsuit stated: “The ISI has
long nurtured and used international terrorist groups, including the
LeT, to accomplish its goals and has provided material support to the
LeT and other international terrorist groups.
The Mumbai attacks were planned, trained for and carried out by
members of defendant, the LeT. Defendant ISI provided critical planning,
material support, control and coordination of the 26/11 attacks,” the
lawsuit alleged.
...
As the US State Department has extended amnesty to two former ISI
chiefs in the 26/11 case, India has reacted sharply, saying the American
decision was a matter of deep and abiding concern as it contradicted
Washington’s public commitment to bringing those responsible for the
Mumbai terror attacks to justice. Six Americans were among the 166
killed in the Mumbai attacks. India’s National Investigation Agency
(NIA) has already secured an Interpol Red Corner Notice against five
officers of Pakistan Army for their alleged role in the Mumbai terror
strikes.
They include Major Sajid Majid (named by David Headley, an American
terror accused being tried in the US), Major Mohammad Iqbal (an ISI
official and Headley’s alleged handler who faces terrorism charges in
the US for his role in the Mumbai attacks), Major Sameer Ali (an ISI
official accused of having worked with Headley), Major Syed Abdul Rehman
alias Pasha (accused of carrying out recruitments for the
Lashkar-e-Taiba) and Major Abu Hamza (one of the alleged handlers of the
Mumbai attackers who was on phone with the terrorists who carried out
Mumbai attack). The warrants were issued on the basis of claim made by
Headley that these people had worked in close coordination with him in
executing the Lashkar-e-Taiba plans for carrying out the 26/11 strikes
in Mumbai.
It took two days of persuasion for Headley to waive his right to silence
under the US law and detail every meeting he had with his LeT handlers,
including Hafiz Saeed and the ISI officials in Muzzaffarabad and Lahore
before the 26/11 attacks. He told the NIA team in Chicago in the
presence of US prosecutors, FBI agents and his lawyers, that his
reconnaissance missions and its results were closely and jointly
monitored by the LeT and ISI before he received fresh instructions. The
11th dossier, which India had handed over to Pakistan on June 18, 2010,
contained every statement by Headley, which shows the ISI as a central
player. “An ISI brigadier served as handler for Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi who
is also close to DG ISI. The ISI funds LeT and shields Hafiz Saeed from
interference,” so said the 11th dossier while quoting Headley.
Read the whole thing. For those who have forgotten what happened in Mumbai, here's a 50-minute long Indian television special from 2011 that recaps the investigation results.
Let's go to the videotape.
The decision not to prosecute thePakistanis is nothing short of disgraceful, but unfortunately very typical of the Obama-Clinton State Department. Will we see similar decisions relating to 'Palestinian' terror groups in Obama's second term?
Final assault on Israel? UN General Assembly calls on Israel to allow nuclear inspectors
We can thank President Hussein Obama for opening this Pandora's box as well. The United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly on Monday to call on Israel to open its nuclear facilities to IAEA inspection. The resolution also expressed support for a now-canceled (although one of the sponsors - Britain - says it's only been postponed) conference of all of the signatories to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. And wait - it gets better.
There were two paragraphs of the resolution that were voted on separately and one of them - to which the US voted in favor! - calls on all countries to immediately join the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Only Israel and India voted against that one (Hat Tip: MFS - The Other News).
All the Arab nations and Iran had planned to attend the conference in
mid-December in Helsinki, Finland, but the United States announced on
Nov. 23 that it wouldn’t take place, citing political turmoil in the
region and Iran’s defiant stance on nonproliferation. Iran and some Arab
nations countered that the real reason for the cancellation was
Israel’s refusal to attend.
The resolution, approved by a vote of 174-6 with 6 abstentions, calls on
Israel to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty “without further
delay” and open its nuclear facilities to inspection by the
International Atomic Energy Agency. Those voting “no” were Israel, the
U.S., Canada, Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau.
I find it incredible that India did not vote no on this....
Resolutions adopted by the 193-member General Assembly are not legally
binding but they do reflect world opinion and carry moral and political
weight.
Israel refuses to confirm or deny it has nuclear bombs though it is
widely believed to have a nuclear arsenal. It has refused to join the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, or NPT, along with three nuclear weapon
states - India, Pakistan and North Korea.
The Arab proposal to create a weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone in
the Mideast, and to pressure Israel to give up its undeclared arsenal of
perhaps 80 nuclear warheads, was endorsed at an NPT conference in 1995
but never acted on. In 2010, the 189 parties to the 1970 treaty called
for convening a conference in 2012 on the establishment of a WMD-free
zone in the Middle East.
The resolution, which was approved by the assembly’s disarmament
committee before the conference was cancelled, noted the decision to
hold it “with satisfaction.”
The number I have heard is not 80 but 200. And I suppose that there is no point in arguing that Israel has allegedly had nuclear weapons for 50 years, and as the only democracy in the region has not, and is unlikely to introduce their use into the region. This isn't about logic....
While the United States voted against the resolution, it voted in favor
of two paragraphs in it that were put to separate votes. Both support
universal adherence to the NPT, and call on those countries that aren’t
parties to ratify it “at the earliest date.” The only “no” votes on
those paragraphs were Israel and India.
Aren't you glad Hussein Obama is still President? What could go wrong?
Israel's shadow war with Iran: Phone calls from Lebanon to Burgas
The New York Times reports on a shadow war going on between Israel and Iran. The only Iranian operation that has been 'successful' was the one in the Burgas Airport in Bulgaria last month in which five Israelis were killed. That plot was orchestrated by Hezbullah out of Lebanon, although that cannot be proven... yet.
Analysts say the shadow war pitting Israel against Iran and Hezbollah has more in common with the cloak-and-dagger maneuverings of the C.I.A. and the K.G.B. during the cold war than the publicity-hungry terrorism campaign of Al Qaeda. It represents a return to the idea that the most effective attack is often an ambiguous one.
“They want just enough ambiguity that you can’t nail down that they did it, the seed of doubt that makes it difficult for Israel or the United States to respond,” said Andrew Exum, a senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security in Washington. The undercover conflict signaled “a return to the black arts of the cold war,” he said.
After the blast in Bulgaria, both Iran and Hezbollah denied involvement almost as quickly as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel pointed the finger at them. American and Bulgarian officials backed the assessment off the record, but would not say so openly. There has been little hard evidence presented to show how or by whom the plots were coordinated.
Israeli intelligence has evidence of many telephone calls between Lebanon and Burgas in the two months before the bombing, according to a senior government official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the information is classified, with the volume intensifying in the three days leading up to it.
But they are no more prepared to expose the details of their counterintelligence work publicly than the attackers are to claim responsibility. “We know the sources in Lebanon,” though not the identity of those on the other end in Bulgaria, the official said. “They shouldn’t know that we know the numbers in Lebanon.”
Weeks after the attack, the Bulgarian investigation has largely stalled. Officials there have yet to identify the attacker, also killed in the blast, or his suspected accomplices. They are hesitant to declare Hezbollah responsible without ironclad proof, given that the European Union has never designated the group a terrorist organization.
European allies expect more concrete evidence than the volume of calls before taking steps against Hezbollah. They maintain “some skepticism that it was Hezbollah as an organization itself, and not, for instance, Iran using individuals with some Hezbollah affiliation,” said a senior security official in Germany.
In India, local agencies told ministers a bomb attack which badly injured the wife of the Israeli military attaché in New Delhi in February was the work of an Iranian "security entity". Their conclusions have not previously been made public and Indian officials have made significant efforts to avoid blaming Tehran, an ally and oil supplier.
The governments of Georgia and Thailand, which both uncovered bomb plots on the day of the Delhi attack, have also not officially blamed Iran.
European intelligence officials told the Guardian they now found it difficult to judge Tehran's "risk calculus".
"Until recently it was possible to see why they were doing what they have been doing," one intelligence official said. "Now it has become very unpredictable. It's very hard to see the logic behind [the February bombings], other than perhaps demonstrate an ability to cause problems in the event of war or a desire for revenge of some kind."
You mean Iran might not be a rational actor that can be trusted not to use nuclear weapons if they have them. What a shock!
Police evidence, witness statements and court documents seen by the Guardian, plus interviews with local and international law enforcement and security officials, indicate that the attempted triple-bombing on 13 and 14 February was conducted by a well co-ordinated network of about a dozen Iranians and prepared over at least 10 months.
The evidence includes the identification of at least 10 Iranians allegedly involved in the plots, money transfers to key individuals from Iran, the use of Iranian phone connections and the flight following the attacks of conspirators to Iran.
"The question is not was this Iran-backed or Iran-organised but who in Iran was running all this," said one western security official.
The first elements of the plot were put in place in April 2011 when at least five Iranians who have been implicated in the attacks travelled to Thailand and India, apparently on reconnaissance missions, investigators say. Their journeys came around four months after a spike in tension between Iran, Israel and the west following the killing in Tehran of Majid Shahriari, a nuclear scientist, by a bomb stuck to his vehicle by a motorcyclist.
Houshang Afshar Irani has been identified by Indian police as the man who attached a magnetic charge to the car of the wife of the Israeli defence attaché in Delhi. Copies of his passport show he first visited the city in April 2011 for 10 days before returning on 29 January this year. At 11.30pm on 13 February, almost seven hours after reaching the Indian capital's main airport 75 minutes after the bomb attack, he flew to Malaysia and then on to Tehran via Dubai.
Analysis by Indian investigators of the type of explosive used in Delhi reveal it to be a variant of TNT. The shell of the bomb was manufactured outside India and magnetic strips used to attach the device to the car in Delhi were identical to those recovered in Bangkok and Tbilisi.
The attack in Bangkok involved at least five people, all Iranians. One, a 31-year-old woman identified as Leila Rohani, visited Thailand twice in 2012 and rented the house off the central Sukhumvit Road that was partly destroyed when 28-year-old Saeed Moradi, also Iranian, appears to have prematurely detonated a device. Moradi, who suffered serious injuries, was arrested. From Bangkok, Rohani travelled to Kuala Lumpur and then on to Tehran, investigators have found.
A second alleged conspirator was detained at the airport, also en route for Tehran. This man, Sedaghatzadeh Masoud, 31, is believed to be the overall co-ordinator of the international operation. Masoud is in custody in Malaysia, pending possible extradition to Thailand.
As in Delhi, a reconnaissance trip also appears to have been conducted in Thailand in April 2011. Members of the cell were pictured with bar girls in the sleazy resort of Pattaya days before the blast.
Read the whole thing. The world is not safe from Iran. Will anyone wake up in time to do something about it?
Iran and Hezbullah targeted diplomats in 7 countries over 13 months... and Jews
The Washington Post has connected the dots between attempts on the lives of diplomats - American and Middle Eastern, including Israelis - in seven countries over 13 months. According to the report, Iran and Hezbullah are behind all of them (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).
The threat, many details of which were never made public, appeared to recede after Azerbaijani authorities rounded up nearly two dozen people in waves of arrests early this year. Precisely who ordered the hits, and why, was never conclusively determined. But U.S. and Middle Eastern officials now see the attempts as part of a broader campaign by Iran-linked operatives to kill foreign diplomats in at least seven countries over a span of 13 months. The targets have included two Saudi officials, a half-dozen Israelis and — in the Azerbaijan case — several Americans, the officials say.
In recent weeks, investigators working in four countries have amassed new evidence tying the disparate assassination attempts to one another and linking all of them to either Iran-backed Hezbollah militants or operatives based inside Iran, according to U.S. and Middle Eastern security officials. An official report last month summarizing the evidence cited phone records, forensic tests, coordinated travel arrangements and even cellphone SIM cards purchased in Iran and used by several of the would-be assailants, said two officials who have seen the six-page document.
Strikingly, the officials noted, the attempts halted abruptly in early spring, at a time when Iran began to shift its tone after weeks of bellicose anti-Western rhetoric and threats to shut down vital shipping lanes. In March, Iranian officials formally accepted a proposal to resume negotiations with six world powers on proposals to curb its nuclear program.
“There appears to have been a deliberate attempt to calm things down ahead of the talks,” said a Western diplomat briefed on the assassination plots, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the intelligence. “What happens if the talks fail — that’s anyone’s guess.”
...
The most recent threat came to light after a foreign spy agency intercepted electronic messages that appeared to describe plans to move weapons and explosives from Iran into Azerbaijan. Some of the messages were traced to an Azerbaijani national named Balagardash Dashdev, a man with an extensive criminal background and, according to a Middle East investigator involved in the case, deep ties to a network of intelligence operatives and militant groups based inside Iran.
Working from inside Iran, officials said, Dashdev in late October began coordinating the shipment of explosives, weapons and cash to Azerbaijani contacts, including relatives and former criminal associates. As U.S. and Middle Eastern intelligence deepened their surveillance, they began to discern what the Middle Eastern investigator described as a “jumble of overlapping plans,” some specifically aimed at Azerbaijan’s small Jewish community and others targeting diplomats and foreign-owned businesses in Baku, the country’s sprawling capital on the Caspian Sea.
During the late fall and early winter, the weapons were smuggled into the country along with at least 10 Iranian nationals recruited to help carry out the plot, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials said.
The Azerbaijani participants had been paid a cash advance and were beginning to conduct surveillance on a list of targets — including a Jewish elementary school, a U.S.-owned fast-food restaurant, an oil company office and “other objects in Baku,” according to a brief statement issued by the Azerbaijani government after a series of raids in which about two dozen alleged accomplices were arrested between January and early March.
The Obama administration acknowledged in March that the U.S. Embassy may have been among the intended targets. But in the months since then, the suspects under questioning revealed extensive details about the “other objects in Baku” that had been on the target list, confirming that the would-be assassins intended to go beyond attacks on buildings.
“They were going after individuals,” said the former State Department official who worked closely with the embassy in Baku. “They had names [of employees]. And they were interested in family members, too.”
The alleged plot leader, Dashdev, would tell investigators that the planned attacks were intended as revenge for the deaths of the Iranian nuclear scientists, attacks that Iran has publicly linked to Israel and the United States. Iran vehemently denied involvement in any assassination plot inside Azerbaijan, and the Iranian Embassy in Baku suggested in a statement that the plot was fiction.
The Obama administration is attempting to tiptoe between the raindrops on this one. They are trying not to accuse the Iranians. But the truth should be told. Iran is behind much of the terrorism in the world. And it's time for the West to do something about it.
Three Iranians named in attack on Israeli diplomat's wife
Indian police have named three Iranian nationals as responsible for the attack on the car of the wife of Israel's military attache in New Delhi last month. Unfortunately, the three Iranians fled the country immediately after the attack. An Indian national of Iranian extraction remains under arrest (Hat Tip: Herb G).
The accused have been identified as Houshang Afshar Irani, Seyed Ali Mahdiansadr and Mohammad Reza Abolghasemi. All three hold Iranian passports and came to Delhi 15 days before the attack on tourist visas. The trio left the city after the bombing for a middle-eastern country.
The investigation agencies are trying to find out which group within Iran were the three affiliated to. "Preliminary investigations suggest they belong to the Iranian spy agency," a source said.
...
Amid protests over journalist Kazmi's arrest in the case, cops firmly said he was part of the conspiracy and provided logistical help to the bombers. Delhi Police's special investigation team had recovered a moped, HR51-5306, from Kazmi's residence when he was arrested on March 6. Sources say this moped was used by the attackers in their recce operations. It was purchased in the name of Irani before the blast and while leaving India, he left it with Kazmi as a gift, said the source. Irani had also parked the rented bike at Kazmi's place.
During the raid at Kazmi's house, cops say they recovered a photograph of the journalist together with Irani. According to sources, the bombers hatched the plan to attack an Israeli embassy staffer in Delhi sometime in February 2011 and Kazmi was contacted to help in the operation. He reportedly agreed.
Here's a fascinating interview with Puneet Madaan, who was born in India and who lives in Germany (and whom I actually met in person when he was in Israel last year). Puneet gives prescient warnings against the way in which Islam is taking hold in Germany. You should read the whole thing here.
According to a senior Israeli official who is close to the investigation, the Indians are close to fully solving the case but they are not saying so publicly. Nonetheless, in quiet contacts with Israel and the United States, the Indians are not concealing the information in their possession, the Israeli official said. The Indians have located the motorcycle used in the attack, have identified who purchased it, and know how and when the attackers arrived in India, the Israeli added. Similar details have also been published by news agencies in India.
"The Indians received a great deal of assistance in the investigation from the United States and Israel and did a lot of work themselves," the senior Israeli official said. "They know Iran is behind the attack. They got to the suspects and carried out arrests. The picture is totally clear to all the officials in India up to the level of the interior minister, but they're not publicizing [it]."
The Israeli official said Indian security services have decided to characterize the incident as a case that, until further notice, is under investigation. This has lowered the pressure for the release of details, and the need to make serious decisions on how to proceed has been deferred. "The Indians understand that if they release the details they have, they won't have a choice but to take steps such as expelling the Iranian ambassador," said the Israeli source. "At this stage, they prefer to avoid such a crisis with Iran."
And it's not just India (and not just Thailand where it was publicly disclosed that Iranians were arrested) which was the location of an attack that was perpetrated by Iranians or those working on their behalf: In Georgia too, Iranians were involved in the attack.
Indian investigators were sent to Georgia and Thailand - where there were failed attacks a short time after the New Delhi blast - to compare findings over the explosive charges used. In both countries clear evidence was found of Iranian involvement in the attempts.
And it seems that Hezbullah may be involved as well:
There have been Indian media reports claiming that 13 suspicious telephone calls made to Iran and Lebanon in the hour before and after the New Delhi blast have been examined. Four of the calls were reportedly made from a public telephone with a view of the restaurant where Yehoshua-Koren and her husband were eating a short time before the attack.
But the Indians toned down reports of the investigation after the first two days, and Israel has not pressured India to disclose anything publicly. Although Haaretz doesn't say so, it seems intuitive that the reason for India's silence is its dependence on Iranian oil. India is one of Iran's largest customers and Iran is India's largest supplier. A report in the JPost on Friday indicated that the United States is attempting to find alternate supplies for the Indians.
The US may help broker deals with suppliers such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the people said, declining to be identified because the information is confidential. Saudi Arabia has already offered to replace Iranian oil supplies if needed, two of the people said. The US is in talks with countries around the world on reducing their dependence on Iranian oil, Victoria Nuland, a spokeswoman at the State Department in Washington, said in an e-mail yesterday.
The assurance follows Iran’s offer to sell extra crude to India as the Persian Gulf nation, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, cuts supplies to some European nations in response to sanctions imposed over its nuclear program. The US and European Union tightened sanctions on Iran last month, restricting trade and financial transactions. They say the program is a cover for developing atomic weapons. Iran denies the accusation.
“This move is going to have an impact and India is going to be hard-nosed in the way they are going to deal with it,” Praveen Kumar, an analyst at Facts Global Energy in Singapore, said. “It’s turned the situation a little in favor of India, which can potentially use it to get a better deal from Iran.”
...
The international measures have made it difficult for India and Iran to preserve $9.5 billion in annual crude trade, after the Reserve Bank of India dismantled a mechanism used to settle payments in euros and dollars in December 2010. Transactions are currently routed through Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS (HALKB), based in Ankara, which has told Indian refiners it may no longer be able to act as an intermediary, four people with knowledge of the matter said Jan. 10.
The Turkish lender will stop processing transactions for supplies into Turkish refineries from July, an official at Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS), which operates four plants, said Wednesday.
India is seeking an additional 5 million tons a year of oil from Saudi Arabia in the year ending March 2013, Junior Oil Minister R.P.N. Singh said in New Delhi yesterday. Saudi Arabia is producing 9.8 million barrels of oil a day and has spare capacity of 2.5 million barrels a day, according to Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, the kingdom’s deputy oil minister.
For those who are wondering, it varies from one type of crude oil to the next, but typically there's a little more than seven barrels of oil per metric ton so 5 million tons over the course of a year is 35 million barrels or 95,000 barrels of oil per day.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama's nightmare is coming true.The price of oil soared to $124 per barrel on Friday. Gas prices here are going to a record high on Wednesday night, and that's probably going to be the case where you are really soon. I would bet on the Indians taking supply from the Saudis and not continuing with the Iranians under these circumstances - they have too many other interests in common with Israel (like military supplies that they need to keep Pakistan in check).
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
