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Monday, August 25, 2014

Israel's other weapons sources

Those of you who recall the story from 10 days or so ago when it was disclosed that the United States had denied Israel Hellfire missiles for use in Gaza, and who are aware that Britain and Spain have placed an embargo on weapons sales to us, might be wondering whether Israel has sources for weapons other than the United States and Western Europe. Unfortunately, while we have such sales they are negligible.
According to Defense Ministry figures, around one-quarter of the output of the Israeli defense industry is intended for IDF use. The rest is exported.
Despite official Israel’s reluctance to get specific about its arms trade, reports submitted by various states to the UN’s Register of Conventional Arms shed some light on the matter. For example, Ukraine’s official reports state that two years ago, Ukraine sold Israel 193 missiles and 32 launchers. According to reports made as part of the voluntary disclosure mechanism, in 2010 Ukraine sold Israel four Strella (SA-7) missiles and two launchers, about 75 Igla missiles of various models and 10 launchers for them. It is not clear why Israel purchased so many Russian-made shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. The assumption is that they are being acquired as part of Israel’s development of systems to counter them, such as the aircraft-defense system. As recently as February, Defense Ministry officials and Elbit Systems announced the successful completion of tests of the Sky Shield system, which is intended to protects civilian aircraft from shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. Arms experts have said it likely that Russian-made missiles were used in the test. Still, the number of missiles Ukraine reported selling to Israel is relatively large even for that purpose. Defense Ministry officials declined to comment for this report.
Reports in the UN Register that were examined in recent years point to some more interesting acquisitions, mainly for Soviet-made arms that are not considered at the forefront of technology.
For example, in 2008 Ukraine reported that it sold Israel a launcher for BM-21 rockets — a launcher that the Israeli army used in the past after it was captured as booty in the Yom Kippur War and used during the first Lebanon War. Hezbollah uses it to fire Grad rockets. In 2006, the Czech Republic sold Tochka tactical missile systems to Israel. Two years previously, Bulgaria sold Israel six 130 mm artillery systems about which no further details were provided.
Against the backdrop of reports about Britain and Spain examining their arms sales to Israel, an expert characterized the amount of arms that Israel purchases from countries other than the United States as “negligible.” 

...
Israel has signed several significant defense contracts with other countries in recent years. Germany provides Israel with submarines from its HDW shipyards in Kiel. Israel has purchased six submarines so far, three of which are in use by the Israel navy. The IDF has taken delivery of two submarines, with additional deliveries scheduled through the end of 2019.
Italy last year arranged to sell 30 M-346 training aircraft to Israel. The first of these are already making their first flights. As part of the deal, Israel sold Italy several defense products, an Israeli-made satellite and a deterrent aircraft produced by Israel Aerospace Industries in a deal estimated at $2 billion dollars.
Last month, the Defense Ministry issued an international tender for the purchase of “defense ships,” which will be used to protect the offshore natural-gas drilling rigs in the Mediterranean Sea. According to an Israeli Navy plan for the protection of the rigs that the defense minister and the chief of staff approved about two years ago, four more large vessels will be required to secure the area properly, at a cost of roughly 100 million dollars per ship. The names of several foreign shipyards — in Germany, Italy, the United States and South Korea — were mentioned in the past as possible makers of the ships that would protect the natural-gas fields.
There are two answers. In the short term, export less and use our own arms. That will help only when the arms in question are arms that we produce domestically. Obviously, there are things (like submarines) that we do not produce domestically, and for which we will still be dependent on other countries.

But in the long run we should be developing our own military industry more than we have been. If we have learned nothing else in the last six years, we should have learned that there are even situations where we cannot count on the United States. We should not be dependent on anyone. Not even the United States. What if Hillary Clinton - or possibly worse Elizabeth Warren is the next President? We would have 4-8 more years of  pressure and unreliability. It's time that we learn to cope on our own. We're a big enough economy to pull it off.

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Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Burgas terrorist active on Facebook?

The two Hezbullah bomb-makers and the terrorist who carried out the terror attack in Burgas, Bulgaria last summer may have smuggled the bomb parts into Bulgaria on a train from Poland.
The suspected Hezbollah operatives behind the Burgas attack last July smuggled a detonator and remote control device from Poland into Bulgaria.

The Bulgarian daily Trud reported on Monday that the bomber, who remains unidentified, and the two additional Hezbollah suspects smuggled the bomb devices on a train from Warsaw on June 28.

...

According to media reports in June, Poland hesitated to designate Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist organization. It is unclear if the Polish government was concerned about Hezbollah’s retaliation in Poland.

The suspects Farah and Hassan used three Eastern European countries for their terrorist operation. After the men detonated the bomb, they fled to Romania and escaped to Lebanon.

Hezbollah has used Europe over the last several years to conduct meetings to plan terrorist operations. The convicted Hezbollah member , the Swedish-Lebanese national, Hossam Taleb Yaacoub in Cyprus , used Lyon, France and Amsterdam in the Netherlands, to hold meetings with his Hezbollah handlers. A Cypriot court convicted Yaacoub in March for planning to murder Israelis on the Mediterranean island. The court sentenced Yaacoub to a four-year prison term.
Meanwhile, Threat Matrix, a blog run by the Long War Journal, reported on Monday that one of the Hezbullah terrorists may be active on Facebook
Farah, an Australian national who is believed to have built the bomb in Bulgaria, may still be active on Facebook as authorities search for him.

One Facebook account possibly attributable to Farah states that the user studied at the Lebanese International University (LIU) and lives in Australia. According to press reports, the printer utilized to create the forged licenses carried by the Hezbollah cell responsible for the Burgas terror attack was based at LIU, where the suspects are said to have studied engineering.
The user of this account, who has 'liked' an array of celebrities and athletes, including Usher and David Beckham, appears to have used online chat services, such as Tohla and Omegle, among others. The user of the account was also involved in online poker via Facebook.
Interestingly, none of the publicly available photos linked to the account provides a match to the photo released by Bulgarian authorities. In fact, the user has used photos of Turkish actor Necati Şaşmaz and Iranian actor Mostafa Zamani as profile pictures. A photo of Zamani is currently adopted as the user's profile picture.
The last public activity for this account, which has 62 friends, was today, July 29, when the user became friends with a few women based in Bulgaria, including at least one in Burgas.
 There are two other accounts that may be connected to the bomb-maker. Read the whole thing.

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Sunday, July 28, 2013

Smoking gun?

Perhaps this is what finally convinced the European Union to ban Hezbullah's 'military wing.' A Bulgarian newspaper reported on Friday that Hezbullah transferred approximately $100,000 to the two terrorists (who were named by Bulgarian authorities last week) who carried out last summer's Burgas terror attack.
Hezbollah’s military wing transferred about $100,000 to of the two suspects in last July’s bus bombing in Bulgaria that killed five Israelis and their local bus driver, a Bulgarian newspaper reported on Friday.
The money was allegedly wired to help fund the attack in the Black Sea resort town of Burgas and for intelligence operations in Bulgaria and other countries, wrote AFP, citing the local daily 24 Hours.
Bulgaria’s Interior Ministry on Thursday said the two suspects were identified as 32- year-old Australian citizen Meliad Farah, also known as Hussein Hussein, and 25- year-old Canadian citizen, Hassan el-Hajj Hassan.
Bulgarian foreign intelligence agencies and international financial institutions alleged the funds were transferred to the Burgas bombing suspects’ bank accounts in Australia and Canada, according to the report.
 Go ahead, Europe. Keep fooling yourselves that it can't happen to you again.


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Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Europe v. Hezbullah

Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Tuesday, July 23.
Europe vs. Hezbollah
Yesterday, the European Union's foreign minsters voted unanimously to designate Hezbollah's "military wing" a terrorist organization. This will give European nations the authority to disrupt the organization's finances.
The vote required unanimity and it was a long time in coming.
Last August, an article written by Nicholas Kulish of the New York Times, Despite Alarm by U.S., Europe Lets Hezbollah Operate Openly, told how freely Hezbollah operated in Germany.

While the group is believed to operate all over the Continent, Germany is a center of activity, with 950 members and supporters last year, up from 900 in 2010, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said in its annual threat report. On Saturday, Hezbollah supporters and others will march here for the annual Jerusalem Day event, a protest against Israeli control of that city. Organizers told the Berlin police that the event would attract 1,000 marchers, and that two counterdemonstrations were also likely.
Hezbollah has maintained a low profile in Europe since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, quietly holding meetings and raising money that goes to Lebanon, where officials use it for an array of activities — building schools and clinics, delivering social services and, Western intelligence agencies say, carrying out terrorist attacks.
European security services keep tabs on the group’s political supporters, but experts say they are ineffective when it comes to tracking the sleeper cells that pose the most danger. “They have real, trained operatives in Europe that have not been used in a long time, but if they wanted them to become active, they could,” said Alexander Ritzmann, a policy adviser at the European Foundation for Democracy in Brussels, who has testified before Congress on Hezbollah.
However at that time:
The European Union’s unwillingness to place the group on its list of terrorist organizations is also complicating the West’s efforts to deal with the Bulgarian bus bombing and the Syrian conflict. The week after the attack in Bulgaria, Israel’s foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, traveled to Brussels for a regular meeting with European officials, where he called for the European Union to include Hezbollah on the list. But his pleas fell on deaf ears.
“There is no consensus among the E.U. member states for putting Hezbollah in the terrorist-related list of the organizations,” Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, the foreign minister of Cyprus, which holds the European Union’s rotating presidency, said at the time. “Should there be tangible evidence of Hezbollah engaging in acts of terrorism, the E.U. would consider listing the organization.”
However, in February of this year, when Bulgaria Implicated Hezbollah in July Attack on Israelis, the mood in Europe began to change.
The announcement could force the European Union to reconsider designating the Lebanon-based group as a terrorist organization and cracking down on its fund-raising. That would upend Europe’s policy of quiet tolerance of the group, which, in addition to operating schools and social services, is an influential force in Middle East politics, considers Israel an enemy and has extensive links with Iran. ...
The United States, too, urged the European Union to condemn Hezbollah. John O. Brennan, President Obama’s chief counterterrorism adviser and his nominee to run the C.I.A., responded in a statement Tuesday: “We call on our European partners as well as her members of the international community to take proactive action to uncover Hezbollah’s infrastructure and disrupt the group’s financing schemes and operational networks in order to prevent future attacks.”
But countries including France and Germany have been wary of taking that step, which could force confrontations with large numbers of Hezbollah supporters living within their borders.
By May of this year, 3 in Europe Now Oppose Hezbollah, now including previously reluctant France and Germany.
The shift in stance by Germany, the most populous country in the European Union and its largest economy, signals a significant change in momentum. “The German position is based on an increasingly clearer picture of the facts and on the progress achieved by Cypriot authorities in analyzing terrorist activities,” the statement said. “Minister Westerwelle hopes that the necessary consultations within the E.U. can be concluded rapidly.” ...
In the past, France and some other countries, like Sweden, have opposed putting Hezbollah on the terrorist blacklist, fearing it could destabilize the Lebanese government. The Palestinian group Hamas is on the list, and a number of European countries now believe that listing Hamas was a mistake because of the important political role it plays in Gaza and in the Palestinian political world. European officials are banned from talking openly to Hamas officials, for example.
Mr. Fabius explained the changed French position by emphasizing Syria, not Bulgaria. “Given the decisions taken by Hezbollah and the fact that it has fought very hard against the Syrian population, I confirm that France will propose to inscribe the military wing of Hezbollah on the list of terrorist organizations” of the European Union, he said, according to Agence France-Presse.
In June, at a meeting of EU security specialists, a vote to designate Hezbollah's military wing, did not achieve unanimity.
Diplomatic sources said Austria and the Czech republic led opposition at a meeting of EU countries' counter-terrorism specialists in Brussels on Wednesday (19 June).
Ireland, Italy and Poland also voiced concerns.
Objections centre around shaky evidence that Hezbollah bombed a bus containing Israeli tourists in Bulgaria last year.
At that point, it didn't look like another vote was going to come up on the topic until later this year.
But by the beginning of the month, momentum started to change.
Britain has argued that the militant Shi'ite Muslim group should face European sanctions because of evidence that it was behind a bus bombing in Bulgaria last July that killed five Israelis and their driver. Hezbollah denies any involvement.
Diplomats say a majority of the 28 EU member states, including EU heavyweights France and Germany, back the British proposal. But unanimity is needed and Austria, the Czech Republic and Italy have been among EU governments that have voiced reservations.
The British proposal has gained urgency - and some support - in Europe in recent weeks because of Iranian-backed Hezbollah's deeper involvement in the Syrian civil war.
Yesterday, the EU's foreign ministers voted unanimously to ban Hezbollah's "military wing," even though Hezbollah acknowledges that it has a unified leadership
What changed in recent weeks? 
The New York Times recently suggested that it was part of a "carrot-and-stick approach" that Europe was employing towards Israel. According to the article, Europe wants to show Israel that it is concerned for its security even as it issues new guidelines regarding settlements, which, of course, are for Israel's own good. 
The problem is that the reporting for the article don't support that thesis.
But the official said he was “not aware of any connection” made between the two issues either by Mr. Netanyahu or his counterparts. ...
While Israel is deeply concerned about the Union’s declaring Hezbollah a terrorist group, Europe generally views Hezbollah as part of its issue with Syria, not Israel. And because the Europeans — in contrast to outraged Israelis — view the new guidelines as a minor step reflecting longstanding policy, they do not see themselves as “owing Israel one.”
One possibility, as mentioned above, is that Hezbollah's involvement in the Syrian civil war on the side of the Assad regimes has hurt its image significantly in Europe. Another is that in the last week, Bulgaria announced new evidence linking Hezbollah to the Burgas bombing. Also last week the Gulf Cooperation Council announced that it would blacklist Hezbollah as a terrorist group. While it's true that Hezbollah claims that Israel is its main enemy, it is not its exclusive target. 
After giving a summary of the Hezbollah's activities in Europe, Matthew Levitt explains how the new designation could hurt Hezbollah:
Despite the formal focus on asset freezing, the most significant impact of the EU ban will be felt on other fronts. First, it will enable EU governments to initiate preemptive intelligence investigations into activities that can be tied in any way to Hezbollah's military wing. Germany and a handful of other European countries have already conducted such investigations, but the designation will spur many others to do so. This alone is a tremendous change that should make Europe a far less attractive place for Hezbollah operatives.
Second, the ban is a strong means of communicating to Hezbollah that its current activities are beyond the pale, and that continuing them will exact a high cost. Previously, the group had been permitted to mix its political and social welfare activities with its terrorist and criminal activities, giving it an effective way to raise and launder money along with a measure of immunity for its militant activities. Today's designation makes clear to Hezbollah that international terrorism, organized crime, and militia operations will endanger its legitimacy as a political and social actor.
As for the financial angle, seizing significant amounts of Hezbollah funds is unlikely because the group's accounts are presumably registered under its nonmilitary names. But the ban will probably still curtail Hezbollah fundraising. Some of the group's members may be barred from traveling to Europe as governments become bolder in opening new investigations, and Hezbollah leaders may curtail certain activities on the continent as they assess the ban's full impact.
Recently it was reported that Hezbollah uses a network of German mosques to raise funds for its activities. Time will tell if the new designation will disrupt this effort. 
Hezbollah has reacted predictably. With threats.
Hezbollah member of Parliament Walid Sukkarieh told reporters: “Hezbollah isn’t a terrorist group with plans to commit acts of terror in Europe – that is religiously forbidden. Our resistance is different.” “Europe, by taking this decision, puts itself into confrontation with a segment of people – with Hezbollah and its supporters and even all the forces of confrontation in the region,” Sukkarieh continued.
Hezbollah threatens through its "FM" Adnan Mansour: "states contributing to UNIFIL, more than others, should review its calculations." (1)
— Tony Badran (@AcrossTheBay) July 22, 2013
More Hezbollah threats via Mansour to al-Manar: "there are local factions that played a negative role in [the EU decision]." (2)
— Tony Badran (@AcrossTheBay) July 22, 2013

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Friday, June 21, 2013

Bulgaria has new evidence linking Hezbullah to Burgas

The Bulgarian government has new evidence linking Hezbullah to the terror attack in Burgas last year in which five Israelis and a Bulgarian bus driver were murdered.
A Bulgarian representative to the European Union said Wednesday that investigators have discovered that a Hezbollah operative was the owner of a printer used to produce fake documents that facilitated the July 19 bombing of a bus filled with Israeli tourists in Burgas. Five Israelis and their Bulgarian driver were killed in the attack.
The disclosure was made at a meeting of the CP931 working group, according to an EU diplomat who was present. The group is charged with determining whether the European Union will blacklist Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.
“The Bulgarians put new evidence on the table during this meeting,” the diplomat said. “Their representative said the printer had been sold to someone from Hezbollah.”
The meeting was the second session convened at the request of Britain, which regards Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist entity and last month cited the Burgas attack in a motion to have the British position adopted by the European Union.
The British position is gutless and ineffective. There is no split between a 'political' and a 'military' wing of Hezbullah, and allowing the 'political' wing to continue to operate will mean that the terror group raises millions of dollars in Europe. 

What could go wrong?

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Thursday, June 06, 2013

Ireland ♥'s Hezbullah?

In an unusual step, unnamed Israeli government officials have accused Ireland of leading the charge in the European Union to prevent even the 'militant wing' of Hezbullah from being declared a designated terror organization.
According to the officials, Ireland – which holds the EU’s rotating presidency – was supported in this position by Sweden and Finland at a working group on Tuesday that debated the issue.

...

A spokesman at Ireland’s embassy in Tel Aviv, when asked if his country was indeed spearheading opposition to the move, said that a formal proposal to designate the “military wing” of Hezbollah had been made by one member state “and is currently being considered within the relevant working group known as CP931, which Ireland chairs as the current EU president.”
The spokesman said that an initial discussion was held on Tuesday, and that further discussions would be required to see whether the working group “can arrive at an agreed position on the proposal.”
That meeting, the spokesman said, was scheduled to take place within the next couple of weeks.
He did not reveal Ireland’s stand on the matter.
However, one Israeli government official who said Dublin was leading the opposition charged that this position was “unusual,” given that Germany, France and Spain – which all have large contingents in UNIFIL – now back the move.
Media outside Israel have claimed that there are other countries trying to save Hezbullah's fundraising sources.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Austria was also opposed, while Lebanon’s Daily Star reported that Italy was leading European opposition.
The claim of Italian opposition was dismissed by Israeli government officials as “unsubstantiated rumors.” A formal request to the Italian Embassy in Tel Aviv for a response went unanswered.
The Europeans' total lack of courage is hair-raising. They cannot even agree to declare Hezbullah's fake 'military wing' a terrorist organization. What could go wrong?

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Wednesday, June 05, 2013

Bulgaria getting cold feet on Hezbullah

Bulgaria is getting cold feet on Hezbullah's involvement in the Burgas terror attack last summer.
Bulgaria said on Wednesday it only had an "indication" that Lebanon's Hezbollah might have been behind a deadly bus bombing in July and that this alone did not justify any European Union move to list it as a terrorist group.
The new Socialist-led government backed away from charges by its center-right predecessor that the Shi'ite Muslim militant group had carried out the attack that killed five Israelis and their Bulgarian bus driver in the Black Sea city of Burgas.
"It is important that the (EU) decision be based not only on the bombing in Burgas because I think the evidence we have is not explicit," Foreign Minister Kristian Vigenin, whose government took office last week, told national state radio BNR.
"There is an indication that it is possible (that Hezbollah was behind it) but we cannot take decisions with important consequences for the EU based on indirect data.
"If we have enough serious proof from other cases, then we will not waver to back such a decision," Vigenin said.
You don't think the Bulgarians are afraid of being hung out to dry by the Americans and the rest of the Europeans do you?

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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler

Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Wednesday, April 24.
1) Friedman resurrects "Fayyadism"
Some time ago, Thomas Friedman coined the term "Fayyadism," a concept that, according to Nathan Brown, never had a chance.

Why Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad never had a chance to meet the high expectations placed on him atfp.co/10hH6rY
— Foreign Policy (@ForeignPolicy) April 18, 2013
(No I don't agree with everything Brown argues, but the fourth and fifth paragraphs are good observations.)
In his most recent column, Goodbye to Fayyad Thomas Friedman boasts about his neologism:
Who is Salam Fayyad? A former economist at the International Monetary Fund, he first came to prominence when he was named finance minister of the Palestinian Authority in 2002, after donors got fed up seeing their contributions diverted for corruption. Shortly after he became prime minister in 2007, I coined the term “Fayyadism” — the all-too-rare notion that an Arab leader’s legitimacy should be based not on slogans or resistance to Israel and the West or on personality cults or security services, but on delivering decent, transparent, accountable governance.
Whether he used the term "Fayyadism" in other fora, I don't know, but the earliest mention of it in a column was in a 2009 column, Greet Shoots in Palestine.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is to the wider Middle East what off-Broadway is to Broadway. It is where all good and bad ideas get tested out first. Well, the Palestinian prime minister, Salam Fayyad, a former I.M.F. economist, is testing out the most exciting new idea in Arab governance ever. I call it “Fayyadism.”
Fayyadism is based on the simple but all-too-rare notion that an Arab leader’s legitimacy should be based not on slogans or rejectionism or personality cults or security services, but on delivering transparent, accountable administration and services.
... Things are truly getting better in the West Bank, thanks to a combination of Fayyadism, improved Palestinian security and a lifting of checkpoints by Israel. In all of 2008, about 1,200 new companies registered for licenses here. In the first six months of this year, almost 900 have registered. According to the I.M.F., the West Bank economy should grow by 7 percent this year.
While it's possible that Friedman came up with "Fayyadism" in 2007, the context of the 2009 mention suggests that the term was based on the results of Fayyad's governance, so I believe that Friedman is mistaken about his own record. 
But what's worse than this possible lapse is that Friedman demonstrated his absolute ignorance of Palestinian politics. Over the time that he sporadically advertised "Fayyadism" as the path to peace, Freidman wrote in a 2011 column, Bibi and Barack:
And it is equally silly for the Palestinians to be going to the United Nations for a state when they need to be persuading Israelis why a Hamas-Fatah rapprochement is in their security interest.
Hamas made it absolutely clear that it wanted Fayyad sidelined and yet Friedman told us that a Fatah-Hamas agreement would be to Israel's benefit. This suggests that "Fayyadism" is one more empty Friedman phrase. "Fayyadism" was a handy rhetorical stick with which to beat Israel. Sure Fayyad is more honest and transparent that any other Palestinian leader, but he is also a leader without an internal constituency
If Friedman could tout a peace killing alliance between Fatah and Hamas the same time he promoted "Fayyadism" as the only way to peace, it demonstrates that he is disingenuous, if not illogical and ignorant. 
In today's column, Friedman also asserts:
Fayyad also played the leading role in rebuilding the Palestinian security services in the West Bank, which even the Israeli military grew to respect, and in trying to build Palestinian institutions, on the argument that the more Palestinians built their institutions — finance, police, social services — the more Israel’s denial of them of a state will be unsustainable.
Lately there's been a rise in attempts to kidnap Israeli soldiers and rock attacks against Jewish residents of Judea and Samaria, suggesting that the Palestinian security forces are helpful, when they want to be, but can hardly be relied upon. Furthermore, even with the built up institutions, the PA is still way too dependent on foreign aid. (This is something that Friedman implicitly acknowledges later in the column, but he, of course, blames the shortfall on Israel for holding back tax monies, ignoring the ineffectiveness of Palestinian governance.)
Hamas hated Fayyad, and many Palestinian Authority officials were jealous of him, but success protected him until 2011. President Mahmoud Abbas, frustrated by the right-wing Israeli government’s refusal to strike a land-for-peace deal, decided to seek recognition of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations. The United States retaliated by cutting off aid, and Israel did so by withholding Palestinian tax receipts. I thought it foolish for Abbas to go to the U.N., but I thought it irresponsible for America’s Congress to cut off aid to the Palestinians for doing so — when we’ve never retaliated for the even more obstructionist building of settlements by Israel.
"Hamas hated Fayyad," and yet Friedman wanted Fatah to join with Hamas for Israel's "security!" Going to the UN wasn't foolish, it was a violation of the premises of the peace process Friedman claims to support. Friedman and the PA may not like settlements but they were allowed by the Oslo Accords, even if Israel has largely restricted any building in them to existing communities. (Though Israel gets precious little credit for this.)
At the end of his column, Friedman presents 4 "takeways." The second and third are ludicrous, but the first one makes a lot of sense:

For Palestinians, particularly Abbas and Fatah, who so easily turned their most effective executive into a scapegoat, if there is no place for a Salam Fayyad-type in your leadership, an independent state will forever elude you.
Fayyad's failure isn't a failure of Israel or of Israel's settlers. It is a failure of Palestinian culture. (Though he'd be loath to admit it, Friedman's making a similar argument to the one Mitt Romney made last year!) 
The problem is that most of the rest of the column is at odds with this observation as Friedman blamed everyone else but the Palesitnians for Fayyad's failure!
Friedman's fourth "takeaway" is:
“There is nothing inevitable about a liberal order emerging from any of these Arab awakenings,” argues the pollster Craig Charney. Indeed, to produce that outcome takes someone like a Fayyad with the consistent help of external parties as well as a loyal base at home ready to see it through. In the end, Fayyad had neither. Add another nail in the coffin of the two-state solution.
Note that first Friedman suggested that the Palestinians bear the blame for their failure to achieve statehood, then he writes that he despairs of a two state solution. The evidence is before him but he is blind to what it means. The occupation (his obsession) is mostly over. What is left is for the Palestinians to achieve independence. That's not something that is dependent on Israel, but on the Palestinians changing their political culture. Had Fayyad managed to win political support - either in the Palestinian leadership or in the street - maybe he'd be more than a footnote right now. 
Jonathan Schanzer laments some in Congress are seeking to pressure Abbas to draft a new succession law.
Hamas’ anticipated rise to power in the PA could lead to a cut off in critical U.S. aid dollars and foster an even more fraught relationship with Israel and America, according to the Rep. Peter Roskam (R., Ill.), the House’s chief deputy whip.
“It’s one of the things Congress will have to monitor closely,” Roskam said in an interview.
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, he said, are poised to “encourage the PA to deal with their succession plan. The notion of a default position of a Hamas official being the head of the PA is complete unacceptable and if the PA were to make that decision to have that leadership, the consequences are quite significant.”
The failure of Friedman's fabled "Fayyadism" is unconnected to Israel. Until the Palestinian culture is about openness and opportunity rather than despotism and grievance, reform and self-governance will elude the Palestinians. As long as Thomas Friedman continues blaming his ill-informed and mendacious arguments he is covering for, not fighting Palestinian malfeasance and misrule.

2) Getting around with Hezbollah 
Last month the National Post reported Hezbollah deliberately seeks Canadians because of internationally accepted passports: senior CSIS official:
The terrorist group Hezbollah has been seeking operatives with Canadian passports, a senior intelligence official told MPs reviewing a bill Thursday that could strip terrorists of their citizenship.
Appearing before the Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service official said Canadian passport holders were being actively sought by terrorist groups.
...
The RCMP is also investigating allegations a Lebanese-Canadian Hezbollah member was behind last July’s bombing of a bus full of Israeli tourists at Sarafovo airport on the Black Sea coast. The suspect, who now lives in Lebanon, had used his Canadian passport to travel to Bulgaria.
Now it's been reported that Iran agent monitoring Chabad arrested in Bulgaria:
Bulgarian police officers last summer arrested a Canadian citizen linked to the Iranian government who engaged in surveillance of the local Chabad center in the capital of Sofia, a well-placed and reliable local source told The Jerusalem Post last week, on condition of anonymity due to security reasons.
An Iranian-sponsored female agent in her 50s, holding a Canadian passport, traveled from Istanbul to Sofia several weeks after the bombing of the Israeli tour bus in the Black Sea resort town of Burgas in July 2012. She was arrested on her first day in Sofia after the Bulgarian police, on high alert, noticed she was monitoring the Chabad center.
While it isn't certain that this agent was working for Hezbollah, the possibility certainly can't be ruled out since Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and Syria.
And how is Hezbollah funding its international operations? The Jerusalem Post reports:
Jonathan Schanzer, vice president for research for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says exchange houses have been used more frequently in recent years by the Islamic Republic in Iran to fund its nuclear program, as sanctions have increasingly restricted its access to resources.
“It’s not insignificant that Europe is identified as a place where Hezbollah is apparently selling drugs,” Schanzer said.
...
Experts say that Hezbollah’s asymmetric fund-raising campaign has kicked in to high gear as the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria has lost ground in its war against his fellow countrymen. The Assad regime, and the Ayatollah regime in Iran, are Hezbollah’s primary patrons.
With Iran and Syria limited in the resources it can provide Hezbollah, the terrorist organization is turning to drugs and money laundering to finance its operations.

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Monday, April 22, 2013

The price of appeasement, Part 1

Europe continues to delude itself that Hezbullah is not a terror organization, or alternatively that it has a 'political branch' that is not a terror organization. Europe will not ban Hezbullah, partly because they fear it, partly because they don't recognize the full extent of its threat and that it cannot be bought off in the long run, and partly because Hezbullah 'only targets Jews' anyway.

But Europe's appeasement of Hezbullah comes with an ever increasing price. JPost reports that shortly after the Burgas terror attack last summer, an Iranian woman traveling on a Canadian passport was caught surveilling the Chabad Center in Sofia.
An Iranian-sponsored female agent in her 50s, holding a Canadian passport, traveled from Istanbul to Sofia several weeks after the bombing of the Israeli tour bus in the Black Sea resort town of Burgas in July 2012. She was arrested on her first day in Sofia after the Bulgarian police, on high alert, noticed she was monitoring the Chabad center.
Her mission was to survey the Chabad center – which houses a synagogue – and not the main Sofia Sephardi synagogue, as first reported.
The Canadian may be a dual Iranian-Canadian citizen.

...

Dr. Matthew Levitt, director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and a leading authority on Hezbollah’s global terror operations, told the Post that, “It would not surprise [us] if Iran or Hezbollah were found to be behind this plot [against the Chabad center] last year. Recall that five years earlier Western intelligence indicated that ‘Hezbollah chiefs and Iranian intelligence officials had put Bulgaria on a list of nations propitious for developing plots against Western targets.’ “Their first attempt at killing Israeli tourists failed when a suspicious package was noticed on a bus carrying Israeli tourists from Turkey to Bulgaria in January 2012. Six months later Hezbollah operatives struck again, this time with devastating success in Burgas.”
The latest disclosure about Iran’s alleged monitoring of the Chabad center may add new weight to the EU talks about banning Hezbollah, Iran’s chief proxy in Europe.
Dr. Wahied Wahdat-Hagh, an expert on Iranian terrorism in Europe and senior fellow with the Brussels-based European Foundation for Democracy, told the Post on Saturday, “Europe needs to wake up and learn from Hezbollah’s terrorism.” He said the group uses Iranian “know-how and money” to launch its terror attacks.
Islamic terror organizations have a special place in their hearts for Jews in general, and for religious Jews and especially for Chabad in particular. People who are visibly Jewish seem to disturb them more than others. And the world doesn't care.

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Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Iran planned to bomb synagogue in Sofia

According to a report by an American think tank, within days after the terrorist attack at Burgas, Bulgaria last summer, Bulgarian authorities caught personnel of Iran's Qods Force militia staking out a synagogue in the Bulgarian capital, Sofia.
According to a 2013 Washington Institute for Near East Policy report titled Hizballah and the Qods Force in Iran’s Shadow War with the West, “within days after the explosion in Burgas — while the investigation into the bombing and the search for accomplices was at its height — Bulgarian authorities reportedly caught a Qods Force operative scoping out a synagogue in the country’s capital.”
Israeli intelligence officials disclosed the Qods Force surveillance of the Sofia synagogue to the report’s author, Dr. Matthew Levitt, a leading authority on Hezbollah and director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute.

...

Asked about the surveillance and arrest of an Iranian Qods force operative in Sofia, Dimitar Yaprakov, a Bulgarian foreign ministry spokesman, answered the Post by email on Monday that “you may address [your questions] to the Ministry of Interior of Bulgaria.”
In response to a Post query, a press spokesperson from the Interior Ministry wrote “Such kind of information does not fall within the scope of the competence of MoI, it falls within the competences of SANS, the State Agency for National Security.”
A spokeswoman for SANS told the Post by phone that the security agency would work on a reply.
 Maybe Iran should also be named a designated terror organization.

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Saturday, March 16, 2013

Bulgaria won't push for EU sanctions on Hezbullah

In a concession to opposition groups who fear reprisals, Bulgaria's new Prime Minister said on Saturday that his country will not push the European Union for sanctions against Hezbullah. It was a terror attack on Bulgarian soil that led to the calls for sanctions against Hezbullah in the first place.
Marin Raikov did not give a reason for his decision - but it will likely be seen as a concession to Bulgarian opposition groups, who have argued the country could open itself up to more attacks if it takes the lead in blacklisting Hezbollah.
Raikov, a career diplomat, took over at the head of a technocrat administration on Wednesday after mass protests against poverty and corruption by opposition groups and other activists brought down Bulgaria's center-right government.
He was appointed by the president to maintain market confidence and placate protesters before an election on May 12.
Opposition leaders had also used the protests to denounce what they saw as irresponsible government accusations that Hezbollah was behind last year's bombing that killed five Israelis in the Black Sea resort of Burgas.
"Bulgaria will not initiate a procedure (for listing Hezbollah as a 'terrorist organization')," Raikov told the state BNR radio station. "We will only present the objective facts and circumstances and let our European partners decide."
 I suppose it would be too much to expect interim technocrats to have any courage. Europe continues to weasel....

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Friday, February 15, 2013

Bulgaria thumbs its nose to terrorists, expels Hamas members

Bulgaria has once again thumbed its nose at terrorists, expelling a Hamas delegation that was visiting the Eastern European country. Hamas was attempting to use the visit to prove that it is being welcomed across Europe. Well, no, it's not.
Three officials from Hamas' parliamentary party the Change and Reform Bloc -- Ismail al-Ashqar, Salah al-Bardawil and Mushir al-Masri -- arrived in Bulgaria on Wednesday.

The bloc said in a statement Friday that Bulgarian security ordered them to leave the country before the end of the five-day visit. They said Israeli pressure was behind the move, and noted that they entered the country officially.

The Hamas delegation left Bulgaria shortly after.

The PLO ambassador in Bulgaria told Ma'an he was informed by the Bulgarian foreign ministry that they "regret" the presence of the Hamas delegation and took a decision to ask them to leave.

Amb. Ahmed Madbouh said the foreign ministry denied it had raided the hotel, but rather had a "calm discussion" with the Hamas delegates.

...

Hamas official Ahmad Yousef said Friday that his party's visit to Bulgaria could presage moving Hamas off the EU terrorism list.

Saying he had specific information, which he could not yet reveal, Yousef told Ma'an that EU countries had "no reservations against removing Hamas from the terrorism list," with the exception of Germany and the Czech Republic.

"There is more than one country in Europe that welcomes Hamas MPs, and this is a good sign," he said.

However, the Bulgarian government immediately moved to clarify that the delegates were not officially invited, and would not meet with government representatives, according to the Sofia news agency.
 Sounds like Hamas isn't coming off the terrorism list anytime soon.

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Bulgaria's unwanted guests

The Bulgarian government is doing everything it can to dissociate itself from a visit to its country by Hamas 'legislators' this past week. Hamas, unlike Hezbullah, has been named a designated terror organization by the European Union.
The Bulgarian government flatly rejected on Thursday meetings between official representatives of the government and Hamas. Vessela Tcherneva, the spokeswoman for the Bulgarian foreign ministry, told the Jerusalem Post that “the news about an official visit of Hamas is wrong and false” and no one has invited Hamas from the side of the government."

She added that the Hamas representatives are “on a private visitation of a NGO” in Sofia.

A spokeswoman for Israel’s Ambassador to Bulgaria, Shaul Kamisa Raz, conveyed a statement to the Post from Israel’s top envoy. Raz said,” Hamas is recognized as a terror organization by the EU.

There can be no ambiguity about this group and its purposes. As for this recent visit to Bulgaria, we are looking into this. In order to understand the exact circumstances under which this visit took place,we prefer not to make any further comments at this point." Ismail al-Ashkar, head of the Hamas parliamentary list, Change and Reform, headed the delegation.

Hamas legislators Salah Bardaweel and Mushir al-Masri, who is also a spokesman for the Islamist movement in the Gaza Strip, accompanied him. The three Hamas officials arrived in Bulgaria at the invitation of the Center for International and Middle East Studies, sources close to the movement said.
Read the whole thing

You still have to wonder why the Bulgarian government allowed them in.

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Sunday, February 10, 2013

Bulgaria: Iran did not withdraw its ambassador

I reported earlier that Iran had withdrawn its ambassador to Bulgaria after being named one of the parties behind last summer's Burgas terror attack. Bulgaria is now denying that story.
"That's not true. The term of Iran's ambassador to Sofia expires at the end of this week. A new envoy, who was appointed months ago, will arrive in Bulgaria on the next day," the news agency quoted Bulgarian Foreign Ministry spokesman Vessela Cherneva as saying to TV channel Evropa.
Hmmm.

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Friday, February 08, 2013

Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler

Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Friday, February 8.
1)Not much political about them

Once upon a time, President Obama's counter-terrorism chief and current CIA nominee, John Brennan advocated engaging with Hezbollah. In 2009, Barry Rubin quoted from a paper written by Brennan:

“It would not be foolhardy, however, for the United States to tolerate, and even to encourage, greater assimilation of Hezbollah into Lebanon's political system, a process that is subject to Iranian influence. Hezbollah is already represented in the Lebanese parliament and its members have previously served in the Lebanese cabinet, reflections of Hezbollah's interest in shaping Lebanon's political future from within government institutions. This political involvement is a far cry from Hezbollah's genesis as solely a terrorist organization dedicated to murder, kidnapping, and violence. Not coincidentally, the evolution of Hezballah into a fully vested player in the Lebanese political system has been accompanied by a marked reduction in terrorist attacks carried out by the organization. The best hope for maintaining this trend and for reducing the influence of violent extremists within the organization—as well as the influence of extremist Iranian officials who view Hezbollah primarily as a pawn of Tehran—is to increase Hezbollah’s stake in Lebanon’s struggling democratic processes” This kind of thinking would do far more than bury Lebanon. It would bury U.S. interests and influence in the Middle East. And so it is only appropriate to quote William Shakespeare’s lines for another funeral oration: “If you have tears, prepare to shed them now!” Yes, it would be foolhardy for the United States to encourage growing influence and power for a radical Islamist terrorist group that is a client of Syria and reasonably close to being an agent of Iran. Brennan seems to give no evidence of any serious knowledge about the Middle East. 
The recent Bulgarian investigation, implicating Hezbollah in last year's terror attack in Burgas, apparently has Brennan rethinking his position. Lee Smith writes in Blaming terrorists for terrorism:
The Obama administration and other U.S. officials greeted the Sofia report with enthusiasm. The White House’s counterterrorism adviser John Brennan commended “its friend and NATO ally.” Obama’s nominee for CIA director has in the past indicated he’s somewhat confused about Hezbollah, recommending for instance that Washington should seek to empower the terror group’s so-called “moderates.” But regarding the Burgas bombing, Brennan was clear-eyed. “Bulgaria’s investigation exposes Hizballah for what it is,” Brennan said in a released statement, “a terrorist group that is willing to recklessly attack innocent men, women, and children, and that poses a real and growing threat not only to Europe, but to the rest of the world.” New Secretary of State John Kerry also weighed in, urging “other governments around the world – and particularly our partners in Europe – to take immediate action to crack down on Hizballah. We need to send an unequivocal message to this terrorist group that it can no longer engage in despicable actions with impunity.” Kerry is referring to the ongoing debate within the European Union whether or not to designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. France and Germany are against listing Lebanon’s Islamic resistance, and led an aggressive campaign to convince the Bulgarians not to name Hezbollah as the culprit. The Netherlands, on the other hand, has been pushing for designation and has blacklisted Hezbollah separately from any EU actions. The UK meanwhile has designated Hezbollah’s “military wing,” an action taken largely because of Hezbollah fighters that squared off against UK troops in Iraq, and intended to distinguish it from the outfit’s “political wing,” a distinction that the Bulgarian report made implicitly.
However as Smith and others have pointed out, Hezbollah's number two official, Naim Qassem said in a 2009 interview with the LA Times:
Neither Qassem nor Washington distinguish between the Shiite militant group's political wing, which has members serving in the Lebanese Cabinet and parliament, and its military wing, preparing for the next round of battle against Israel. "Hezbollah has a single leadership," said the 57-year-old cleric in a rare interview with an American reporter recently.
"All political, social and jihad work is tied to the decisions of this leadership," he said. "The same leadership that directs the parliamentary and government work also leads jihad actions in the struggle against Israel." 
Bulgaria's actions contrast favorably with those of Argentina, which recently chose to cooperate with Iran in attempting to learn the truth about the 1994 bombing of the Jewish community center in Buenos Aries. Lee Smith writes in Iran to investigate JCC bombing:
Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon likened the formation of the truth committee to “inviting the murderer to participate in the murder investigation.” It’s a fair assessment. From the outset, the Iranian regime was believed to have been responsible for the AMIA Jewish community center attack, as well as the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, which killed 29 and injured 242. But it wasn’t until October 2006, when Argentinian special prosecutors officially charged that it had been carried out by a team of Hezbollah operatives, including the late head of the terrorist group’s external operations unit, Imad Mughniyeh, under the direction of the highest authorities in Tehran. An Argentinian court issued arrest warrants for Mughniyeh as well as six senior Iranian figures, among them former President Ali Rafsanjani and current Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi. According to the report that the special prosecutors presented the judge in the case, a group called the Special Affairs Committee, which includes Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Rafsanjani, convened in the Iranian city of Mashad on Aug. 14, 1993, to approve the attack. Iran, of course, has long denied any involvement in the AMIA attack, and its intense diplomatic efforts to shirk responsibility seem to have finally paid off. Mutual commercial interests and shared ideological sympathies have brought Argentina and Iran closer than ever before—and this so-called truth committee is only the latest evidence of the increasingly close alliance. 
In an interesting irony, a reporter, Borzou Daragahi, tweeted the other day that Israel had paid off Bulgaria to implicate Hezbollah. After the tweet was exposed and publicized, Daragahi backed off his charge. 
Daraghi was also the reporter who interviewed Qassem in 2009.
 
2) Not even pretending

I guess as a way to balance out Shmuel Rosner's essays in Latitudes, the New York Times has engaged Raja Shehadeh to write about all the outrages Israel visits upon the Palestinians.
A few months ago he claimed that Israel was preventing Palestinians from getting needed medical treatment. The numbers tell a much different story. 
Now in More than a land grab he raises the specter of "settlers."
Meanwhile, last Thursday a fact-finding mission of the U.N. Human Rights Council issued a scathing report about the settlers’ tactics, perhaps the boldest report ever issued by a U.N. body. It noted that “the identities of settlers who are responsible for violence and intimidation are known to the Israeli authorities, yet these acts continue with impunity.” It continued: “The mission believes that the motivation behind this violence and the intimidation against the Palestinians as well as their properties is to drive the local population away from their lands and allow the settlements to expand.”
Depending on the UN Human Rights Council for an objective view of Israel is ridiculous. A recent New York Times editorial (illogically) criticized Israel for not submitting to a human rights review by that organization even as it acknowledged that the council singled out Israel for disparate treatment. 
NGO Monitor explains that the fact finding practiced by the UNHRC didn't follow proper protocols. The Australia/Israel and Jewish Affairs Council weighs in with specific criticisms of the UNHRC report. (h/t Bennett Ruda)

Of course balance would be the goal if Shehadeh were honest. But Shehadeh isn't simply trying to make people understand the Palestinian perspective. He is using inaccuracies, distortions and generalizations to demonize Israel. He can even give his arguments some "substance" because there are institutions like the UN and Ha'aretz that are always eager to portray Israel as beyond redemption. In engaging Shehadeh, the New York Times once again demonstrates its disdain for Israel, as well as for the truth.

3) That 3 AM phone call

The editors of the Washington Post ask Why did Mr. Obama overrule his advisers on Syria?
WE NOW know that President Obama’s national security team overwhelmingly supported providing arms to the rebels in Syria. On Thursday, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told a Senate committee that he and Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, backed a plan that would have vetted, trained and armed selected opposition groups, which have been pleading for such U.S. support for more than a year. According to the New York Times, the strategy was developed by former CIA director David H. Petraeus and supported by former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton. As we have frequently argued, the rationale for such action is compelling. Syria’s civil war, which has killed more than 60,000 people, grows steadily worse and more dangerous for the United States and its allies. An opposition that once was a peaceful pro-democracy movement has been all but overtaken by jihadist organizations, including an al-Qaeda affiliate, that receive ample funding and weapons supplies from abroad.
This is incredible. During the Bush administration stories that suggested that President Bush ignored intelligence that his approach to Iraq was wrong regularly were treated as above-the-fold-front-page-news. Now we have news that the current president refused the unanimous recommendation of every single senior member of his foreign policy team. While the Washington Post is disturbed by this, there's been little else written about President Obama's failure to heed this advice. There was a time when American intervention may have helped steer the Syrian rebellion. That time has long ago passed. (Barry Rubin noted the administration's failure to aid the rebels and gain some influence among them, last May.) That the President persisted despite the recommendation of his advisers should be a major scandal.

Maybe President Obama answered the proverbial 3AM phone call, but then he did nothing to show that he appreciated its significance.

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Thursday, February 07, 2013

Name and shame: Financial Times reporter tweets 'Israel bribed Bulgaria,' later apologizes

Borzou Daragahi, the Middle East and North Africa correspondent for the Financial Times of London, has now apologized for a tweet on Tuesday that implied that Israel had bribed Bulgaria to implicate Hezbullah in the Burgas terror attack.
“Sincere apologies and regret for ill-conceived tweet yesterday about Israel and Bulgaria,” Borzou Daragahi, the London-based newspaper’s Middle East and North Africa correspondent, wrote Wednesday on Twitter.
The previous day Daragahi had tweeted, “I don’t doubt Hezbollah/Iran could be behind Bulgaria bombing, but also think Israel could pay Sofia to say anything.” He included a URL of a Reuters article quoting Bulgarian Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov as blaming two Hezbollah operatives for the July 18 bus bombing in Burgas in which six people were killed, including five Israeli tourists.
Not quite as bad an instance as I expected of the correction getting far less publicity than the original. The original tweet was retweeted 15 times and favorited four times, while the correction was retweeted 10 times and favorited once. But Mr. Daragahi has over 13,000 followers. And as one commenter pointed out in the correction, the tweet just might be indicative of Mr. Daragahi's biases.

Sounds like he should at least have been transferred.

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Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler

Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Wednesday, February 6.
1) Implicating Hezbollah

The New York Times reports Bulgaria Implicates Hezbollah in July Attack on Israelis. (more via memeorandum)

The announcement could force the European Union to reconsider designating the Lebanon-based group as a terrorist organization and cracking down on its fund-raising. That would upend Europe’s policy of quiet tolerance of the group, which, in addition to operating schools and social services, is an influential force in Middle East politics, considers Israel an enemy and has extensive links with Iran. ... The United States, too, urged the European Union to condemn Hezbollah. John O. Brennan, President Obama’s chief counterterrorism adviser and his nominee to run the C.I.A., responded in a statement Tuesday: “We call on our European partners as well as other members of the international community to take proactive action to uncover Hezbollah’s infrastructure and disrupt the group’s financing schemes and operational networks in order to prevent future attacks.” But countries including France and Germany have been wary of taking that step, which could force confrontations with large numbers of Hezbollah supporters living within their borders.
Last August the New York Times reported Despite Alarm by U.S., Europe Lets Hezbollah Operate Openly:
While the group is believed to operate all over the Continent, Germany is a center of activity, with 950 members and supporters last year, up from 900 in 2010, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said in its annual threat report. On Saturday, Hezbollah supporters and others will march here for the annual Jerusalem Day event, a protest against Israeli control of that city. Organizers told the Berlin police that the event would attract 1,000 marchers, and that two counterdemonstrations were also likely. Hezbollah has maintained a low profile in Europe since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, quietly holding meetings and raising money that goes to Lebanon, where officials use it for an array of activities — building schools and clinics, delivering social services and, Western intelligence agencies say, carrying out terrorist attacks. European security services keep tabs on the group’s political supporters, but experts say they are ineffective when it comes to tracking the sleeper cells that pose the most danger. “They have real, trained operatives in Europe that have not been used in a long time, but if they wanted them to become active, they could,” said Alexander Ritzmann, a policy adviser at the European Foundation for Democracy in Brussels, who has testified before Congress on Hezbollah.
Benjamin Weinthal reports in the Jerusalem Post, Bulgaria: Hezbollah behind Burgas attack:
Hezbollah’s number 2 leader Naim Qassem rejected the British separation of his organization into political and military wings. He told the LA Times in 2009, “The same leadership that directs the parliamentary and government work also leads jihad actions in the struggle against Israel.”
This is an important admission because a lot of commentary will attempt to differentiate between Hezbollah's "military" and "political" wings.

The Washington Post calls for the European Union to respond to Hezbollah’s attack in Bulgaria:
Since then the Quds Force has, among other things, plotted to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States in Washington and the U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan, and it has attacked an Israeli diplomat’s wife in India. Hezbollah has attempted attacks on Israeli tourists in Cyprus, Greece and Thailand as well as in Bulgaria. Mr. Levitt says that more than 20 terror attacks by Hezbollah or the Iranian force were detected between May 2011 and July 2012; fortunately, almost all failed or were disrupted.
...
The United States, which long ago designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, has been pressing European leaders to do the same so that the group’s funds in European banks and other financial assets can be targeted. Several governments, led by France, have resisted; they worry that sanctions could further destabilize Lebanon or subject European peacekeepers in the south of that country to reprisals. Bulgaria’s findings should end the debate. Inaction would mean accepting that Europe can be a free-fire zone for Iran and its proxies.
Unfortunately, the editorial implies that Israel has been killing Iranian scientists, a supposition that's disputed by Michael Ledeen. On the positive side, the editorial cites Matthew Levitt's HIZBALLAH and the QODS FORCE in IRAN’S SHADOW WAR with the WEST. (.pdf)
IN JANUARY 2010, the Qods Force—the elite unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)— decided that it and Hizballah, its primary terrorist proxy, would embark on a new campaign of violence targeting not only Israel but U.S. and other Western targets as well. Since then, the two organizations have been cooperating but also competing to launch attacks across the globe. What is particularly striking is how amateurish the actions of both organizations have been: targets were poorly chosen and assaults carried out with gross incompetence. But as the groups brush off the cobwebs and professionalize their operations, this sloppy tradecraft could quickly be replaced by operational success. Indeed, one particularly odd effort might have succeeded were it not for the fortuitous placement of an undercover U.S. government informant: the case of an Iranian-American used-car salesman who pleaded guilty in October 2012 to conspiring with Iranian agents to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States.
Related commentary and details from Honest Reporting, This Ongoing War, Israel Matzav, Elder of Ziyon, Eugene Kontorovich and The Lid.

2) Not liking Hagel

Time Magazine features an ugly article Just who do they representAt Hagel Hearing, Concern for Israel Tops U.S. Troops in Combat by Brandon Friedman (via memeorandum):
It’s difficult to interpret this message any other way: the Senate Armed Services Committee—particularly its Republican membership—is more concerned with the apparent American defense secretary’s relationship with Israel than with the future of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the fate of U.S. troops engaged in both locations. We are approaching a host of critical and delicate decisions on how many — and how fast — U.S. troops should be pulled out of Afghanistan. Yet, after more than a decade at war there — and nearly 2,100 U.S. lives lost — the people charged with overseeing the operation seem no longer interested. While Israel is a strategic ally in a precarious situation (the committee also frequently brought up Iran), at best, this sends a disheartening message to the American men and women serving down range, under hostile fire. After 11 years of fighting, committee members seem to have little concern for what the likely incoming defense secretary thinks of the situation.
If Hagel had acquitted himself well, maybe there'd be an argument here. And surely how Hagel would deal with Iran is important to know too. Barry Rubin recounts how the question about containing Iran went:
Here’s the primary example — Hagel said: “I support the president’s strong position on containment.” Now, the truth is that there’s nothing wrong with that. He did not say the president’s position advocating containment of Iran. Contrary to the way that many writers are portraying it, what he said wasn’t incorrect, just ambiguous. He could easily have recovered. Then, some of his handlers asked him to clarify. What did he do?
I was just handed a note that I misspoke … that I said I supported the president’s position on containment. If I said that, I meant to say that we don’t have a position on containment.
Now this management alone is enough to bar him from handling one of the most important and complex jobs in the world. Let’s count the ways:
– Never admit that you’ve just been told you were wrong! He should have pocketed the note without mentioning it and simply added to his statement (see below). What he did instead is on the level of stupidity of a television host being shown a cue card reading: “Wrap up the show, moron!”, and then reading that aloud to the live audience. — He should have said something like this: “I do not want any ambiguity in my clear statements of support for the president and for a tough policy on Iran. I support the president’s position of asserting that containment is insufficient and that our goal is to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, leaving all options open for doing so.”
He doesn’t just not know the facts, he doesn’t know how to be a high-level official. He doesn’t just not know the details of international affairs, his thought is simply not coherent. And unlike Obama and Kerry, he doesn’t know how to hide his radicalism behind smooth phrases.
Dorothy Rabinowitz made similar observations about Senator Hagel in the Wall Street Journal.

While the critics of Hagel's critics claim that the campaign against Hagel is primarily about Israel and often go as far as Friedman in suggesting that there is an unseemly aspect to Hagel's critics on this count. On the other hand Hagel's critics seem to like largely because of his past statements about Israel! It certainly isn't due to his savvy.

But are Hagel's (pre-confirmation coversion) views on Israel correct? Did his views on Israel show that he put American interests first? Michael Doran writes in Hagel’s misreading of how to treat an ally that the answer to both questions is "no."
Realists in the Hagel mold find this episode exhilarating. Eisenhower, they say, pursued the national interest without concern for “sentimental” attachments, to say nothing of domestic lobbies. When applied to the present, the analogy calls for dealing sharply with Israel. The United States, the implication goes, must not allow its client to drag it into conflict with Iran. Instead, Obama must treat Benjamin Netanyahu with the same grit that Ike flashed at Eden. But this analogy omits a key fact: Ike came to regret those policies. “Years later,” Richard Nixon wrote in the 1980s, “I talked to Eisenhower about Suez; he told me it was his major foreign policy mistake.” By 1958, Ike himself had realized his error and reversed course.

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EU unlikely to declare Hezbullah a designated terrorist organization

Prime Minister Netanyahu welcomed the Bulgarian government's report on this past summer's terror attack in Burgas.
In a statement issued after the Bulgarians released their report implicating Hezbollah in the July 2012 attack in Burgas, Netanyahu – apparently noting that Bulgaria referred to Hezbollah’s “militant wing” – stressed that “there is only one Hezbollah, it is one organization with one leadership.”
Netanyahu said the findings are additional proof of what Israel has long known, that Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsors are waging a terrorist war that “spans borders and continents.”
He said that the attack in Bulgaria was just one of many that Hezbollah and Iran have planned and carried out, including attacks in Thailand, Kenya, Turkey, India, Azerbaijan, Cyprus and Georgia.
“All this is happening in parallel to the deadly support given by Hezbollah and Iran to the murderous Assad regime in Syria,” Netanyahu said.
“The attack in Burgas was an attack on European soil against an EU country,” Netanyahu said.
“We hope the Europeans will draw the necessary conclusions regarding the true nature of Hezbollah.”
Netanyahu thanked the Bulgarians for what he said was their “thorough and professional” investigation of the bombing.
The prime minister’s remarks were echoed by John Brennan, US President Barack Obama’s counterterrorism top adviser.
But Hezbullah continues to deny involvement in the attack and accuses Israel of a 'smear campaign.'
Deputy Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said the accusation was part of "allegations and incitements and accusations against Hezbollah" pursued by Israel after it had failed to defeat Hezbollah militarily.
"All these accusations against Hezbollah will have no effect, and do not change the facts," Qassem said. "We will not submit to these pressures and we will not change our priorities. Our compass will remain directed towards Israel."
The Europeans apparently agree with Hezbullah. They do not plan to declare Hezbullah a designated terrorist organization
“Hezbollah is part of Lebanon’s government,” said Moniquet, the founder of the European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center, a Brussels-based think tank. “Calling it terrorist would limit France’s ties with Beirut and put French targets and personnel in Lebanon at risk of retaliation. The Bulgarian report doesn’t alter this realpolitik. There were always plenty of smoking guns.”

...

Catherine Ashton, the EU's foreign policy chief, took "note of the results of the investigation," adding that it required further "reflection." And the union's top counterterrorism official, Gilles de Kerchove, told a Belgian news agency that being behind a terrorist attack did not automatically result in a terrorist designation.
“It's not only the legal requirement you have to take into consideration, it's also a political assessment of the context and the timing,” de Kerchove said.
While the refusal to designate Hezbollah a terrorist group is widespread in Europe, France is considered to be a major impediment to any changes. Lebanon is a former French colony, many French soldiers serve in the country under U.N. auspices, and there is extensive trade and cultural exchange between the two countries.

...

The Bulgarian investigation traced a money trail leading from Hezbollah’s military wing, which perpetrated the attack, to Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon. That revelation could make the British distinction between Hezbollah's political and military activities harder to defend.
“It implicates the much bigger financial structure that facilitated the attack,” said Nuno Wahnon Martins, director of European Affairs at B'nai B'rith. “[It] means Hezbollah’s entire drug-smuggling and money-laundering operations are serving the organization’s terrorist activities.”
Like other Eastern European countries, Bulgaria tends to be more closely aligned with U.S. foreign policy than countries in the West. Moniquet attributed the country's “courageous” statement this week to precisely that inclination, and to the fact that it has fewer strategic interests in Lebanon.
European Jewish groups recognize the the tangle of interests at play in Europe, but generally have little sympathy for it. European Jewish Congress President Moshe Kantor said the decision to label Hezbollah a terrorist group “should not be subject to political considerations but whether proscribing Hezbollah will hinder its continuing efforts to murder innocent civilians.”
Analysts say a European lifeline is crucial for Hezbollah, which holds several seats in the Lebanese parliament. Wim Kortenoeven, a former Dutch lawmaker and author of a book on Hamas, says Europe is Hezbollah's “money laundromat and piggy bank.”
David Suurland, a lecturer at Leiden University’s school of law and an expert on radical Islam, believes the Bulgarian report can be used by jurists to force the E.U. into severing ties with Hezbollah-affiliated bodies, including the Lebanese government. This, in turn, could remove incentives to shield the terrorist group from being labeled as such, Suurland said, since it would violate a number of international treaties.
It also would violate the 2002 bilateral trade agreement between Europe and Lebanon. Article 2 of the pact states that the relationship is “based on democratic principles and fundamental human rights” -- not Hezbollah’s forte, Kortenoeven says.
As a lot of you know, I often change planes in Europe on the way to the US. It's cheaper.... But the only place I feel that I could be an obvious target - God forbid - is in the airport where it's clear who is arriving from and departing to Israel. European airport security is not great.

But most Israelis who travel on vacation travel the same way those people in Burgas did last summer - in groups of Israelis. About a year and a half ago, I changed planes in Berlin, and I had a few hours and wanted to know if there was sufficient time to go see the city. Once I was out of the luggage claim area (which you had to go through anyway if you were changing terminals, which I was), it took about 30 seconds to find the Hebrew speaking tour guide who told me that I did not have enough time to go into the city.

Israelis are sitting ducks in European airports and stick out like sore thumbs. And Hezbullah would God forbid love to murder us.

If the President of the United States had the junk, he could lean on Europe really hard to make that declaration. But he's gutless.

 What could go wrong?

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