Asia to replace Europe as Israel's biggest trading partner?
[Former Middle East expert for the US Vice President's office David] Wurmser concludes that Israel make Asia its preferred export destination and not Europe. This is a decision Israel will have to make as it influences how it builds its energy infrastructure. If Europe begins to present itself as an unreliable trading partner, then there will be many more Israeli voices who adopt the idea of making Asia into Israel's preferred market for its gas exports.Professor Yisrael Aumann, Nobel prize winner in Economics, reaches a similar conclusion in an interview with Yisrael HaYom.
Is there an alternative to the West?
"There's an economic awakening in Asia -- China, Korea, India, Singapore, Kazakhstan. That's something new. It increases global competition, and competition is good for the economy. I see it as a good thing, not just for Israel but for the whole world."
Do you see it as the rise of a new civilization in place of the one we've known so far?
Gold believes that Europe needs Israel economically more than Israel needs Europe."I don't want to be that kind of prophet. It's obvious that the Far East is waking up, but it's still too early to talk about the decline of the West. The Chinese asked me what I suggested for them. I said: 'Learn English now so that in another 50 years, the whole world will learn Chinese.' They're not interested in us for nothing. Despite the political difficulties, there are games that we, as a nation, are winning. Israeli scientific research is such a victory. So are Israeli technology and the start-ups -- what the world calls 'the start-up nation.'"
A German adviser to Chancellor Angela Merkel told The Jerusalem Post last month that European cooperation with Israel in research and development in the EU's Horizon 2020 program is a European interest and not just an Israeli interest.
The background to the EU's program with Israel is the need for Europe to improve its global competitiveness and increase jobs and economic growth on the continent after years of sluggish growth. The Horizon 2020 program is not a European handout to Israel, but a joint initiative by which Israel puts up funds by itself and receives 1.6 euros for joint research and development for every euro it puts in.
Because of its scientific prowess, Israel is the only non-European country to have been invited to take part in this program. The Europeans knew what they were doing by inviting Israel, which is no longer viewed as a country known only for its Jaffa oranges, as it was in the 1950s. Clearly, both sides benefit from this cooperation and both have much to lose by its politicization by EU bureaucrats in Brussels.
So what were the Europeans thinking when they got Israel involved in the first place? Economists have long recognized that knowledge-based industries are the fastest-growing portion of the global economy, and serve as engines for economic growth. These are precisely the technological fields in which Israel leads and which Europe needs.
In their book "Start-Up Nation," Dan Senor and Saul Singer quote an American high-tech executive who admits that for companies like Google, Microsoft, and Intel, "the best-kept secret is that we all live and die by the work of our Israeli teams."
Why should Europe jeopardize its cooperation with Israel, which has served as such an important partner for the U.S. companies? To go down the path of limiting its scientific cooperation with Israel seems to be, ultimately, a self-defeating policy for Europe itself.
Aumann, whose specialty is game theory, believes that Israel doesn't need European money for scientific cooperation.Then there is the issue of Israel's offshore gas fields. Europe presently imports most of its gas from Russia and from North Africa. David Wurmser used to serve as a Middle East expert for the U.S. vice president's office and later advised Noble Energy, which is involved in Israeli gas exploration. He points out in a paper for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs that there are today five existing or planned pipelines connecting Europe with the gas of North Africa. Four of the pipelines come through Algeria, which is facing growing threats from al-Qaida affiliates. Elsewhere in the Middle East, as in Sinai, they have shown their readiness to sabotage such pipelines. Having another source of gas from Israel could be critical for Europe if some of its current energy sources do not come available.
"The scientific cooperation doesn't depend on money. It doesn't depend on grants. On the contrary. The grants depend on the scientific cooperation. Here at the Center for the Study of Rationality, we had long-term cooperation without European money. The money doesn't create cooperation, so it doesn't look like it will be affected."
Aumann's manner is calm even when I mention things that should be upsetting -- not just to him, of course, but also to the entire institution of higher education. This is how he responds to Hebrew University Professor Shai Arkin's statement that severing research relationships would damage the universality of Israeli research and make it provincial:
"I don't share those concerns. It seems to me that there was good cooperation with the Europeans and the Americans before, and it will go on afterward, too. The Europeans aren't threatening to sever scientific connections. Scientific connections aren't money. I had a case where I had a close scientific connection with one of the European researchers. He visited us in Israel often. One day, he joined the boycott of Israel. We were shocked and acted in a way that resulted in him losing more than we did. We continued to thrive. Now it's different. I'm afraid of what could happen if we give in."
What do you mean?
"We're opening a door here for worse things to happen -- for there to be no scientific cooperation at all. The next stage could be a threat that if we don't leave Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem now, a scientific boycott will be declared against all of Israel, not only on the institutions in Judea and Samaria. The thought that concessions bring calm is inaccurate. If we agree to a boycott of Judea and Samaria and don't resist it, thinking that we'll be left alone if we consent, we'll get the opposite result.
"The thing is that the people who are shouting that it's bad for Israel's scientific community are the same ones who have it in for Judea and Samaria anyway. So they're not exactly acting out of pure intentions toward Israeli scientific research. I admit that this applies in the reverse situation, too -- as far as people who support living in Judea and Samaria, as I do. The question is not entirely political, but politics are involved, at least partially. Most of the people who are terribly worried about the future of Israel's scientific research are on the left side of the barricades anyway, and those who aren't so concerned hold different political opinions."
Is Israel's scientific research dependent on Europe?
There's much more - read both articles.
"Israeli scientific research isn't dependent on Europe. Still, scientific cooperation with Europe, and mainly with the United States, is an important factor. But that's scientific cooperation; we're not getting any money from the Europeans. Incidentally, cooperation isn't important just to us, but to them too."
What's unmentioned in either article is the increasing Islamization in Europe, which is likely to assure (as if Europe's anti-Semites needed the push) that these sorts of initiatives from Europe will continue. In 50 years, Europe may well be a backwater to western civilization, but a center of Islam. Israel should start pushing for Asian markets now to get in on the ground floor. Perhaps the next President of the United States will similarly stop that country's euro-centrism.
Labels: China, Europe, European anti-Semitism, exports, India, Judea and Samaria, Kazakhstan, oil and gas exploration, Russia, Singapore, South Korea
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:44 AM
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