Israel Matzav

India covering up Iranian involvement in New Delhi bombing to avoid rift

According to Israeli officials, India is covering up Iranian involvement in the car bombing attack on an Israeli diplomat's wife two weeks ago in order to avoid a rift with Iran, its largest oil supplier.

According to a senior Israeli official who is close to the investigation, the Indians are close to fully solving the case but they are not saying so publicly. Nonetheless, in quiet contacts with Israel and the United States, the Indians are not concealing the information in their possession, the Israeli official said. The Indians have located the motorcycle used in the attack, have identified who purchased it, and know how and when the attackers arrived in India, the Israeli added. Similar details have also been published by news agencies in India.

"The Indians received a great deal of assistance in the investigation from the United States and Israel and did a lot of work themselves," the senior Israeli official said. "They know Iran is behind the attack. They got to the suspects and carried out arrests. The picture is totally clear to all the officials in India up to the level of the interior minister, but they're not publicizing [it]."

The Israeli official said Indian security services have decided to characterize the incident as a case that, until further notice, is under investigation. This has lowered the pressure for the release of details, and the need to make serious decisions on how to proceed has been deferred. "The Indians understand that if they release the details they have, they won't have a choice but to take steps such as expelling the Iranian ambassador," said the Israeli source. "At this stage, they prefer to avoid such a crisis with Iran."

And it's not just India (and not just Thailand where it was publicly disclosed that Iranians were arrested) which was the location of an attack that was perpetrated by Iranians or those working on their behalf: In Georgia too, Iranians were involved in the attack.

Indian investigators were sent to Georgia and Thailand - where there were failed attacks a short time after the New Delhi blast - to compare findings over the explosive charges used. In both countries clear evidence was found of Iranian involvement in the attempts.

And it seems that Hezbullah may be involved as well:

There have been Indian media reports claiming that 13 suspicious telephone calls made to Iran and Lebanon in the hour before and after the New Delhi blast have been examined. Four of the calls were reportedly made from a public telephone with a view of the restaurant where Yehoshua-Koren and her husband were eating a short time before the attack.

But the Indians toned down reports of the investigation after the first two days, and Israel has not pressured India to disclose anything publicly. Although Haaretz doesn't say so, it seems intuitive that the reason for India's silence is its dependence on Iranian oil. India is one of Iran's largest customers and Iran is India's largest supplier. A report in the JPost on Friday indicated that the United States is attempting to find alternate supplies for the Indians.

The US may help broker deals with suppliers such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the people said, declining to be identified because the information is confidential. Saudi Arabia has already offered to replace Iranian oil supplies if needed, two of the people said. The US is in talks with countries around the world on reducing their dependence on Iranian oil, Victoria Nuland, a spokeswoman at the State Department in Washington, said in an e-mail yesterday.

The assurance follows Iran’s offer to sell extra crude to India as the Persian Gulf nation, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, cuts supplies to some European nations in response to sanctions imposed over its nuclear program. The US and European Union tightened sanctions on Iran last month, restricting trade and financial transactions. They say the program is a cover for developing atomic weapons. Iran denies the accusation.

“This move is going to have an impact and India is going to be hard-nosed in the way they are going to deal with it,” Praveen Kumar, an analyst at Facts Global Energy in Singapore, said. “It’s turned the situation a little in favor of India, which can potentially use it to get a better deal from Iran.”

...

The international measures have made it difficult for India and Iran to preserve $9.5 billion in annual crude trade, after the Reserve Bank of India dismantled a mechanism used to settle payments in euros and dollars in December 2010. Transactions are currently routed through Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS (HALKB), based in Ankara, which has told Indian refiners it may no longer be able to act as an intermediary, four people with knowledge of the matter said Jan. 10.

The Turkish lender will stop processing transactions for supplies into Turkish refineries from July, an official at Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (TUPRS), which operates four plants, said Wednesday.

India is seeking an additional 5 million tons a year of oil from Saudi Arabia in the year ending March 2013, Junior Oil Minister R.P.N. Singh said in New Delhi yesterday. Saudi Arabia is producing 9.8 million barrels of oil a day and has spare capacity of 2.5 million barrels a day, according to Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, the kingdom’s deputy oil minister.

For those who are wondering, it varies from one type of crude oil to the next, but typically there's a little more than seven barrels of oil per metric ton so 5 million tons over the course of a year is 35 million barrels or 95,000 barrels of oil per day.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama's nightmare is coming true.The price of oil soared to $124 per barrel on Friday. Gas prices here are going to a record high on Wednesday night, and that's probably going to be the case where you are really soon. I would bet on the Indians taking supply from the Saudis and not continuing with the Iranians under these circumstances - they have too many other interests in common with Israel (like military supplies that they need to keep Pakistan in check).

Labels: India, Iranian oil, Islamic terrorism, Saudi Arabia

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:51 AM