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Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Cairo demonstrations, Egyptian regime change, Hosni Mubarak, live feed
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:34 PM
2 comments
In Cairo, pro and anti-Mubarak forces are clashing in the streets as President Mubarak tries to maintain his hold on office for the time being in the name of an 'orderly transition' of power (Hat Tip: Memeorandum). Hours after a call from Egypt’s powerful military for the president’s opponents to “restore normal life,” thousands of men, some carrying fresh flags and newly printed signs supporting Mr. Mubarak, surged into Tahrir Square.A short while ago, Israel Radio played a recording of gunfire on the streets of Cairo, and apparently a number of people have been shot. Several journalists report that they have been beaten, including Israel Radio's Gideon Kutz, and CNN's Anderson Cooper.
Some waved off reporters and yelled, “No photos.”
They were outnumbered by Mr. Mubarak’s opponents, who have spent nine days in the square insisting on his ouster. Clashes erupted close to the Egyptian Museum housing a huge trove of priceless antiquities.
The two sides traded volleys of rocks and engaged in hand-to-hand fighting. Many were led or carried away with bleeding head wounds. Antigovernment protesters organized themselves into groups, smashing chunks of concrete into smaller projectiles to be hurled at their adversaries. The violence was the most serious since the antigovernment protesters laid claim to Tahrir, or Liberation, Square days ago as they pursued what seemed to be a largely peaceful campaign for Mr. Mubarak’s ouster.
Hours before the violence erupted in the square, antigovernment protesters had been chanting: “We are not going to go; we are not going to go.”
In counterpoint, demonstrators supporting Mr. Mubarak chorused back: “He’s not going to go; he’s not going to go.”
At one point, plumes of smoke, apparently from tear gas, rose above the rival crowds surging back and forth as the two sides fought for the upper hand.
“Where’s the Egyptian army?” antigovernment demonstrators chanted.
“They are trying to create chaos,” said Mohamed Ahmed, 30. “This is what Mubarak wants.”
The army took no immediate action as the skirmishes intensified, leaving the competing demonstrators to press toward one another. But troops with bayonets fixed to their AK-47 assault rifles fanned out near the museum as antigovernment protesters sought to build makeshift barricades to keep their foes at bay. And eventually, several tanks maneuvered into position between the two clashing crowds, and soldiers tried to calm both.
Some antigovernment protesters used the shelter of the tanks to launch rocks, and others said they believed their foes were agents of the authorities. At one point, they began calling for the soldiers to fire into the air to disperse their opponents.
Labels: Anderson Cooper, Barack Obama, Cairo 25 January 2011, CNN, Egyptian regime change, Gidon Kutz, Hosni Mubarak, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:07 PM
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Haaretz's Amos Harel, one of the country's top military analysts, explains some of the potential strategic implications of what is going on in Egypt today. In the possible scenarios that Israeli intelligence envisioned, they admittedly posited 2011 as a year of possible regime change – with a lot question marks – in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but a popular uprising like this was completely unexpected.Read it all and you will understand why there is so much concern in Israel about what's going on in Egypt today.
More than this, in his first appearance at a meeting last Wednesday of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee the new head of military intelligence Major General Aviv Kochavi said to member of Knesset, "There are currently no doubts about the stability of the regime in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood is not organized enough to take over, they haven't managed to consolidate their efforts in a significant direction."
If the Mubarak regime is toppled, the quiet coordination of security between Israel and Egypt will quickly be negatively affected. It will affect relations between Cairo's relationship with the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip, it will harm the international forces stationed in Sinai.
It will mean the refusal of Egypt to continue to allow the movement of Israeli ships carrying missiles through the Suez canal, which was permitted for the last two years, according to reports in the foreign press, in order to combat weapons smuggling from Sudan to Gaza. In the long run, Egypt's already-cold peace treaty with Israel will get even colder.
From the perspective of the IDF, the events are going to demand a complete reorganization. For the last 20 years, the IDF has not included a serious threat from Egypt in its operational plan.
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Hosni Mubarak, Muslim Brotherhood, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:33 PM
2 comments
Barry Rubin points out the numbers in the latest Pew poll to show that what's likely to follow the current riots in Egypt is - unfortunately - not a liberal democracy. At least not if the Egyptian people are asked what they want. In Egypt, 30 percent like Hizballah (66 percent don't). 49 percent are favorable toward Hamas (48 percent are negative); and 20 percent smile (72 percent frown) at al-Qaida. Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad. This doesn't tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government at home, but it is an indicator.And in Jordan, the numbers look even worse.... (Thanks to Michael Totten for the idea, but your like to Barry's post is wrong!).
In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
Asked if they supported "modernizers" or "Islamists" only 27 percent said modernizers while 59 percent said Islamists:
Is this meaningless? Last December 20 I wrote that these "horrifying figures in Egypt...one day might be cited to explain an Islamist revolution there....What this analysis also shows is that a future Islamist revolution in Egypt and Jordan is quite possible.
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Egyptian riots, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:14 AM
4 comments
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:05 AM
1 comments
The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.The truth is starting to come out about the number of people hurt over the last few days. It's far more than the single digit numbers we were being given on Friday. Israel Radio reports that 92 people have been killed and over 2,000 injured.
On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.
He has already been arrested by Egyptian security in connection with the demonstrations and his identity is being protected by The Daily Telegraph.
...
The US government has previously been a supporter of Mr Mubarak’s regime. But the leaked documents show the extent to which America was offering support to pro-democracy activists in Egypt while publicly praising Mr Mubarak as an important ally in the Middle East.
In a secret diplomatic dispatch, sent on December 30 2008, Margaret Scobey, the US Ambassador to Cairo, recorded that opposition groups had allegedly drawn up secret plans for “regime change” to take place before elections, scheduled for September this year.
The memo, which Ambassador Scobey sent to the US Secretary of State in Washington DC, was marked “confidential” and headed: “April 6 activist on his US visit and regime change in Egypt.”
It said the activist claimed “several opposition forces” had “agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections”. The embassy’s source said the plan was “so sensitive it cannot be written down”.
Ambassador Scobey questioned whether such an “unrealistic” plot could work, or ever even existed. However, the documents showed that the activist had been approached by US diplomats and received extensive support for his pro-democracy campaign from officials in Washington. The embassy helped the campaigner attend a “summit” for youth activists in New York, which was organised by the US State Department.
Cairo embassy officials warned Washington that the activist’s identity must be kept secret because he could face “retribution” when he returned to Egypt. He had already allegedly been tortured for three days by Egyptian state security after he was arrested for taking part in a protest some years earlier.
The protests in Egypt are being driven by the April 6 youth movement, a group on Facebook that has attracted mainly young and educated members opposed to Mr Mubarak. The group has about 70,000 members and uses social networking sites to orchestrate protests and report on their activities.
The documents released by WikiLeaks reveal US Embassy officials were in regular contact with the activist throughout 2008 and 2009, considering him one of their most reliable sources for information about human rights abuses.
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Egyptian riots, Politics, Wikileaks, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:17 PM
4 comments
Israel Radio reports that things are relatively 'quiet' in Egypt, that there is a curfew in Egypt, so there are very few cars and people in the streets, and that Foreign Minister Omar Suleiman has been appointed Vice President. That is apparently not enough for the demonstrators.
The pictures in this post are of vandalism in the Cairo Museum - those broken artifacts that you see are priceless. They were posted originally by Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi, a columnist for The National (an Emirati newspaper) and posted to YFrog by Blake Hounshell (one of the editors of Foreign Policy Magazine).
Unfortunately, looters have destroyed many of these priceless artifacts.Looters broke into the Egyptian Museum during anti-government protests late on Friday and destroyed two Pharaonic mummies, Egypt's top archaeologist told state television.
The museum in central Cairo, which has the world's biggest collection of Pharaonic antiquities, is adjacent to the headquarters of the ruling National Democratic Party that protesters had earlier set ablaze. Flames were seen still pouring out of the party headquarters early on Saturday.
"I felt deeply sorry today when I came this morning to the Egyptian Museum and found that some had tried to raid the museum by force last night," Zahi Hawass, chairman of the Supreme Council of Antiquities, said on Saturday.
"Egyptian citizens tried to prevent them and were joined by the tourism police, but some [looters] managed to enter from above and they destroyed two of the mummies," he said.
He added looters had also ransacked the ticket office.
The two-storey museum, built in 1902, houses tens of thousands of objects in its galleries and storerooms, including most of the King Tutankhamen collection.
Laura Rozen has more on the Suleiman appointment. Meantime, Egyptian intelligence chief Gen. Omar Suleiman was named vice president Saturday -- the first to hold that post in Egypt since 1981, Egypt state television reported.Hope they're not too late to the party.
The appointment of the veteran Egyptian security official who has dealt extensively with Washington on the peace process, Hamas-Fatah reconciliation talks, counter-terrorism, and other security matters, came hours after embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced overnight that he would dissolve his cabinet and implement political and economic reforms.
President Barack Obama said he called Mubarak after his speech last night and pressed him to make good on his pledges for reform, and said violence is not the way to deal with the grievances that have built up in Egyptian society.
...
The appointment of Suleiman, a more technocratic figure (and non Mubarak relative) who has developed a strong working rapport with Washington and other Middle Eastern capitals, to the Vice Presidential post, suggests a potential transition figure and bulwark against instability as Mubarak's exit is envisioned, from Washington's perspective.
"The message [of Suleiman's appointment] is intended to be, even if Mubarak goes, the system remains," Jon Alterman, an Egypt expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Saturday.
"I don't think Suleiman seeks the presidency," Alterman continued. "That being said, it's hard to imagine Mubarak is president in a year."
Foreign policy scholar Robert Kagan, who co-chairs a bipartisan Egypt working group that has been urging the Obama administration to prepare for the post-Mubarak era and press for reforms, writes that he thinks Obama's statement last night after his conversation with the Egyptian ruler was pretty good.
"They're not as on the fence as people think," Kagan, of the Brookings Institution, said by e-mail Saturday, referring to the U.S. administration. "I think the administration knows there has to be some kind of transition soon."
Kagan envisions a possible transition scenario under which Mubarak would agree to move now to allow free and fair, internationally monitored presidential elections in September, open up the press, etc. that would make way for Mubarak's peaceful departure in the next six months.
"The only way out for Mubarak is to allow free and fair, competitive elections, including inviting international monitors to come in," Kagain said. "And right away, because they have to monitor months of campaigning leading up to the elections." It also requires, he said, "changes to constitution to allow candidates not currently approved to run ... [a] completely free press, etc."
"If Mubarak announced this right away, it could prevent him from being toppled," Kagan said. "It is possible that Egyptians would still want Mubarak out even if he made these concessions, but I think it could work."
From Washington's perspective, CSIS's Alterman said, "peaceful change is most likely to lead to a more inclusive government, and violence is likely to lead to an extended period of tension and instability and radicalize both sides. The clear U.S. interest is in avoiding a bloodbath in the streets."
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Egyptian riots, Gamal Mubarak, Hosni Mubarak, Omar Suleiman
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:07 PM
3 comments
A few updates from Egypt - where all hell has apparently broken loose - before the Sabbath starts.
Note the precipitous drop in traffic around 5:20 pm.All mobile operators in Egypt have been instructed to suspend services in selected areas. Under Egyptian legislation the authorities have the right to issue such an order and we are obliged to comply with it. The Egyptian authorities will be clarifying the situation in due course .Third, unsurprisingly, all hell broke loose after Friday prayers.
Thousands of Egyptian anti-government protesters clashed Friday with police in Cairo, who fired rubber bullets into the crowds and used tear gas and water cannons to disperse them. It was a major escalation in what was already the biggest challenge to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's 30 year-rule.Prominent Egyptian democracy activist Ayman Nour has been struck in the head by a rock and hospitalized in a semi-conscious state.
Police also used water cannons against Egypt's pro-democracy leader Mohamed ElBaradei and his supporters as they joined the latest wave of protests after noon prayers. Police also used batons to beat some of ElBaradei's supporters, who surrounded him to protect him.
A soaking wet ElBaradei was trapped inside a mosque nearly an hour after him and his supporters were water cannoned. Hundreds of riot police laid siege to the mosque, firing tear gas in the streets surrounding it so no one could leave. The tear gas canisters set several cars ablaze outside the mosque. Several people fainted and suffered burns.
Large groups of protesters, in the thousands, were gathered at at least six venues in Cairo, a city of about 18 million people. They are demanding Mubarak's ouster.
There were smaller protests in Assiut south of Cairo and al-Arish in the Sinai peninsula. Regional television stations were reporting clashes between thousands of demonstrators and police in the Mediterranean port city of Alexandria and Minya south of Cairo.
At the upscale Mohandiseen district, at least 10,000 of people were marching toward the city center chanting "down, down with Mubarak." The crowd later swelled to about 20,000 as they made their way through residential areas. Residents looking on from apartment block windows waved at them and whistled in support. Others waved the red, white and black Egyptian flags.
At Ramsis square in the heart of the city, thousands of protesters clashed with police as they left the al-Nur mosque after prayers. Police used tear gas and rubber bullets and some of the tear gas was fired inside the mosque where women were taking refuge.
Clusters of riot police with helmets and shields were stationed around the city, at the entrances to bridges across the Nile and other key intersections.
Near the city's main Tahrir Square downtown, hundreds of riot police clustered together and moved in, anticipating the arrival of a large crowd of protesters. A short while later, thousands of protesters marched across a bridge over the Nile and moved toward the square, where police began firing tear gas into the crowds.
Kim Jong-il is telling his son tonight, "See why it's good to have no Internet to cut off in the first place?"Sad.
Labels: Ayman Nour, Cairo 25 January 2011, Egyptian riots, Hosni Mubarak, Mohamed ElBaradei
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:45 PM
3 comments
On Thursday, riots in Egypt spread to the northern Sinai, blocking the road to Rafah. Rafah is right across the border from Gaza (the town is actually divided in half and has been ever since Israel returned the Sinai to Egypt). Riots have resumed in the city of Suez in Egypt, Al Jazeera reported Thursday. Protesters torched a building and are hurling stones at police forces. According to the report, police are using tear gas to disperse the protest. Meanwhile, protests have resumed in north Sinai and the road leading to Rafah has been blocked.Will Gaza riot in sympathy for Egypt? For example, might they try to break down the border fence again as happened three years ago (see picture)? Hmmm.
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Condoleeza Rice, EUBAM Rafah, Gaza, Hosni Mubarak, Philadelphi corridor, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:42 PM
1 comments
This is from a New York Times article on how what's going on in Egypt is being viewed in Israel (Hat Tip: Daily Alert). Though the peace, Israel’s first with an Arab partner, has remained cold — Egyptian civil society still boycotts Israel — the relationship is viewed here as critical. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, confers regularly with Egypt’s president, Hosni Mubarak; they met most recently on Jan. 6 in the Sinai resort of Sharm el Sheik for what another official described as strategic discussions.Read the whole thing.
“Egypt is not only our closest friend in the region,” Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, a veteran Israeli politician and former defense minister known for his close ties to senior Egyptian officials, told Army Radio on Wednesday, “the cooperation between us goes beyond the strategic.”
Israeli officials and analysts said they believed that Mr. Mubarak’s government was strong enough to withstand the protests, at least as long as it had the backing of the Egyptian Army.
But with Mr. Mubarak, who came to power in 1981, now an ailing octogenarian, Israelis were in any case looking ahead to a transition of some sort in Egypt, amid a sense of a shifting regional equilibrium.
...
Israelis were not yet envisaging a future without the peace treaty with Egypt. Mr. Eran said that almost any government in Egypt would want to maintain the pact, even at a low profile, because so much is hinged on it, including Egypt’s relations with, and aid from, the United States.
At least in the short term, Israelis did not see a need for panic. At the same time, officials here were cautious about making long-term predictions. After Mr. Mubarak leaves the stage, one said, “We have no idea what will happen.”
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Hosni Mubarak, Jordan, Palileaks
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:44 AM
1 comments
A very interesting report from Twitter: Just had confirmed that Mubarak is still in Sharm El Sheikh, not taking advice from his own government to step down or leave the countryThe tweet came from Habiba Hamid, who is an editorial writer for The National - an Emirati newspaper.
Mr ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize-winning former head of the UN nuclear watchdog, told Reuters shortly before he was due to leave Vienna for Cairo today: "He has served the country for 30 years and it is about time for him to retire.If you're wondering where the chief of Egypt's armed forces is... he's in the US.
"I think he has to declare that he is not going to run again (for president)," said Mr ElBaradei, who lives in Vienna.
"Tomorrow is going to be, I think, a major demonstration all over Egypt and I will be there with them," Mr ElBaradei said, calling for peaceful protests.
"People broke the culture of fear and once you break the culture of fear there is no going back," he said.
In a comment on the American web-based news site The Daily Beast today, Mr Elbaradei said: "I am going back to Cairo, and back onto the streets because, really, there is no choice. You go out there with this massive number of people, and you hope things will not turn ugly, but so far, the regime does not seem to have gotten that message."
His arrival in Cairo could inspire protesters who have no figurehead, although many activists resent his long absences over past months.
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Hosni Mubarak, Mohamed ElBaradei, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:15 PM
3 comments
It reminds a lot of people of this picture from Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 1989.
More details on the photo here.Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, photographs, Tiananmen Square
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:05 PM
2 comments
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Egyptian riots, Hosni Mubarak, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:54 AM
1 comments
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Egyptian riots, Hosni Mubarak, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:28 PM
0 comments
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Hosni Mubarak, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:44 AM
1 comments
If the Mubarak family dictatorship in Egypt is one day overthrown, this may be remembered as the beginning of the end. Around 1:30, a protest erupted suddenly at the Lawyers Syndicate, a hotbed of opposition political activists one mile north of Tahrir Square, where about 200 activists began pushing onto the streets. Rows of riot police quickly pushed back, hoping to contain them within the syndicate's gates. Soon after, a second crowd gathered across the street. As riot police scrambled, protest leaders began appealing to nearby pedestrians to join in, and some did, boxing in the police. Meanwhile, a group of former opposition parliamentarians held a third protest on the steps of the nearby high court, shouting demands for the end of Mubarak's reign. This group quickly gained strength and converged with the second crowd, overwhelming the riot police. The three demonstrations became one and began their push towards Tahrir Square.Best news albeit way too preliminary - I've seen reports that most of the protesters are not from the Muslim Brotherhood. If that holds up and a non-Islamist alternative to Mubarak emerges, that could be really good news.
Initially, riot police formed rows of human chains blocking off the square. But when the marching protesters met the ranks of police, a strange thing happened. The chains broke at every point, allowing the demonstrators to pass through. The police, it seemed, were simply unwilling to hold. At these edges of the square, and in the square itself, confrontations between protesters and security officials were few and far between. Jubilation was in the air as the ever-growing crowd passed the Egyptian Museum and took Tahrir Square with the astounding acquiescence of the police.
"I think the police are helping us," said Ghad party youth leader Moshira Ahmed Mohasseb, who led chants on the march toward Tahrir. "They're tired. Everyday they're fighting another strike in another place, and I think they're starting to think again."
As the crowd grew, a police officer, who might in the past have responded with his baton, instead took out a camera and snapped a photo. Whatever was happening, he wanted to record it rather than to stop it."
Things went on this way, with the crowd rapidly growing as the news spread, until it pushed beyond Tahrir Square, up Kasr el-Eini Street towards the Ministers Assembly, where protesters tried to break through the gates. Finally, riot police raised their batons. An armored vehicle, which had previously sat still, let out a burst of gas-infused water near the crowd in an apparent threat. The protesters paused. A pocket of them formed in lines for afternoon Asr prayers. When they were finished, they rose, screamed, "Allahu akbar" and charged en masse towards the riot police.
That was the moment any relative peace ended. Protesters threw shoes and rocks; government-hired, plain-clothes thugs beat protesters; police fired tear gas and shot water cannons. People ran wildly along Kasr el-Eini Street, taking refuge in side-streets as the police cordoned off the area in front of the Ministers Assembly and Parliament. Meanwhile, Mobinil cell phone service was terminated, and Twitter was blocked.
But the crackdown may have come too late. By 5 p.m., tens of thousands of Egyptians - some in Cairo estimated hundreds of thousands - had gathered in Tahrir Square, with additional protests in neighborhoods all over the city, and in cities all over the country. The presence of armored police-transport trucks along nearly every major Cairo avenue merely confirmed to most people that something big - something unprecedented - had just taken place.
One of the most impressive aspects of Tuesday's protest is its success at producing massive numbers without the direct organizational assistance of the Muslim Brotherhood. The venerable Islamist group is normally the only opposition force that can bring thousands into the streets. But the Brotherhood announced earlier this week that it would not directly participate as an organization, though it did allow individual members to take part.Hmmm.
Labels: Cairo 25 January 2011, Hosni Mubarak, Muslim Brotherhood, Politics, World Politics
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:21 AM
4 comments
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
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