How we could end up with a Leftist government
The polls show that the public wants a Right wing government, albeit not necessarily one led by Binyamin Netanyahu.
The polls also show that the public may not get what it wants from the upcoming elections.
Here is why:
The latest poll, carried out by Midgam for Channel 2, indicates that a Labor ticket, after the merger with Hatnua, would receive 24 Knesset seats.
Likud would receive 23 seats; Jewish Home 15; Yisrael Beytenu 8; Shas
9 and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 8. This means that the traditional
right wing-religious bloc would have a slim majority of 63 seats, or two
more than it currently enjoys.
Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party would receive 9 seats, and Meretz would have 5. The Arab parties would split 11 seats between them.
But that majority may be illusory because the Haredi parties have already said that they will
go in with Labor rather than sit in a coalition with Jewish Home.
Asked whom they would like to see as the next prime minister, 36% said
Binyamin Netanyahu, while 33% said they preferred a rotation between
Tzipi Livni and Yitzchak Herzog.
...
Midgam is considered to be leftward leaning.
The last politician I can recall falling as far and as fast as Netanyahu was George HW Bush after the first Gulf War.
Here's another poll which is
quite different.
Likud would win 25 mandates if elections were held today, according
to the survey published by the Geocartography Institute. By contrast,
the Labor-Hatnua pact would win just 18 seats - a far cry from the major
wins predicted in other polls, and four seats less than a previous poll
held by the institute on December 9.
Interesting, Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party would become the third
strongest party in the Knesset, with 12 seats, up from ten in the
December 9 survey.
Jewish Home would gain fourth place with 11 seats, signifying a drop
from its current 12; United Torah Judiasm would also gain 11 seats, up
from ten; Shas, despite internal conflict between MKs Aryeh Deri and Eli
Yishai, would win ten seats, up from six.
Below that, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu is projected to gain
nine seats in thee 20th Knesset, up from eight - whereas Yair Lapid's
Yesh Atid fell to eight seats in the Knesset from its current 19.
The poll, as reported by Walla!, did not list results for
several of Israel's smaller political parties, including Meretz, the
Arab parties (United Arab List and Balad), Hadash, Kadima, and Otzma
Yehudit.
The Geocartography Institute poll stands in stark contrast to other surveys in the Israeli press recently, including a Panels Politics poll for Maariv which gives Labor the win at 24 mandates against Likud's 20.
That poll indicated, however, that the majority of Israelis
would nonetheless prefer a right-wing government with a coalition
including the hareidi parties.
Huh? I saw polls that said that a huge number of Israelis did not want the Haredi parties in the government (not that it really matters, in case you hadn't figured that out).
Hmmm.
By the way, keep in mind that the pollsters here tend to be very biased.
Labels: Israeli election polls, Israeli polls, Knesset elections 2015
Chicken***t
Guess who
doesn't want elections.
Lapid in his faction meeting, pleaded with Netanyahu not to initiate an
election, which he said would harm the economy and halt important
socio-economic steps the government is taking.
I wonder whether
this has something to do with it.
Can you say 'flash in the pan'?
Labels: Israeli election polls, Israeli elections, Yair Lapid
Lion for new elections?
Shas leader Aryeh Deri hinted on Tuesday that the Haredi parties are cutting a deal with Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman in which the Haredim will support Moshe Lion for Mayor of Jerusalem, and in return Liberman will work to take apart the current government coalition. Liberman's associates describe that as '
wishful thinking.'
“All the heads of the haredi parties promised him three months ago that they would support Moshe Lion,” Deri continued.
“If
we back track on this, and if the haredi community don’t unite around
the candidacy of Moshe Lion, I'm telling you we’re going to lose the
chance to dismantle this coalition in the next three years.”
Asked to explain further, Deri said the coalition could not be broken up with the Yisrael Beytenu chairman.
“Avigdor
Lieberman is the central axis of this coalition. You cannot break up
this coalition without Avigdor Lieberman. You cannot come to Avigdor
Lieberman and tell him, sir, I'm sorry we’re taking you out, politically
speaking, that we’re not supporting your candidate, Moshe Lion in
Jerusalem, and afterwards request from him that he breaks up his
alliance with Yair Lapid and Bennett.
“It won’t work, full stop. You can’t behave like this.”
Lion
was hoping for full haredi support in Jerusalem but the hassidic Agudat
Yisrael party has refused to endorse him, as has a rebel non-hassidic
faction representing several thousand votes on the capital.
Shas and the mainstream non-hassidic haredi party Degel HaTorah have both pledged support for Lion.
You will note that contrary to the JPost headline, Deri didn't really say that Liberman will undercut the coalition in exchange for support for Lion, but rather that Liberman
won't undercut the coalition if the Haredim do
not fulfill their commitment to support Lion.
Lion is trailing badly in the polls.
The Haredim are the largest voting bloc in Jerusalem.
The election is next Tuesday, October 22.
Strange things have happened at the last minute in Jerusalem politics. In 1993, Menachem Porush
withdrew from the Mayoral race at the last minute, and the Haredim threw all their votes to Ehud Olmert, resulting in the defeat of longtime Mayor Teddy Kollek and the election of Olmert.
Labels: City of Jerusalem, Ehud K. Olmert, Israeli election polls, Nir Barkat
Israel waiving Iran attack during US Presidential transition?
JPost is reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu has decided to
dissolve the Knesset as soon as it goes back into session on October 15 and to call new elections - probably for February 12. The reasons seem to be all economic: The Prime Minister fears that the current Knesset will hold up the 2013 budget for populist spending measures if elections are held as scheduled in November 2013.
Knesset speaker Reuven Rivlin told Netanyahu
and coalition chairman Ze'ev Elkin to initiate elections immediately in
the first few hours of the Knesset's winter session. He warned that if
the Knesset was not immediately dissolved, parties would try to pass
expensive populist legislation and the economy could be harmed. Rivlin
said initiating immediate elections were also important in order to
pass the budget as soon as possible following the election.
“There
is no doubt that a political ruling has been made, and all of the
parties are ready for an election,” Rivlin said during a Succot
celebration in Migron.
Rivlin pointed out that there is an
international economic crisis that threatens to reach Israel, saying
that, without a budget for 2013, there can be serious socioeconomic
ramifications and harm to the weaker sectors of the population.
If
the Knesset is dissolved on October 15, the earliest possible time to
hold an election would be January 15, 2013. However, echoing statements
by Netanyahu’s Office, Rivlin said he estimates that the vote will be
held in the second or third week of February.
There are two other consequences of dissolving the Knesset that are not discussed in the JPost piece. One is that there will be no replacement for the Tal Law - which lapsed in August after being declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court - until at least some months after a new Knesset is seated, probably some time in March. That could mean as much as an entire year in limbo.
But that consequence pales in importance compared with the other one - the fact that Israel is likely to have no government in power during the entire transition period in the US if Obama loses the election. Can it attack Iran anyway? If Obama loses, Netanyahu may be willing to trust Romney and hold off, but what if Obama wins? Did Netanyahu see enough last night to believe that a Romney victory is likely? Hmmm.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, Campaign 2012, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran, Israeli election polls, Mitt Romney
Poll shows Likud and Labor up, Kadima down
A
new poll that was published on Wednesday night shows Likud gaining 10 seats, Labor gaining 14 and Kadima losing 11 from their current levels.
The Likud would win 37 seats in the next Knesset, and Labor would pass Kadima by five seats if elections were held today, according a poll by Channel 2 and the Sarid Institute for Research Services that was published on Wednesday night.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's party would gain ten seats in the next election, despite recent social protests. The pollsters explained that the bump was most likely due to the prisoner exchange in which Gilad Schalit was released from Hamas captivity.
The poll also showed that Kadima would shrink from 28 to 17 MKs, possibly because of party leader Tzipi Livni's criticism of the Schalit deal.
Labor, under the new leader Shelly Yacimovich, would become the second-biggest faction in the Knesset, with 22 mandates as opposed to the current eight. The party won 13 seats in the previous election, but five MKs separated to form the Independence party, led by Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Beiteinu would remain with the 15 Knesset seats it currently has.
Netanyahu also led in responses to the question "Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?" with 41 percent. Yacimovich received 15%, while Kadima leader Tzipi Livni tied with Lieberman for nine percent.
This government may actually serve out its term. If that happens, it will be the first time since I made aliya in 1991.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Israeli election polls, Kadima, Labor party, Likud party, Tzipi Livni
Poll: 'Right' is strengthening but not by much
If elections were held today, the parties currently in the coalition would
gain ground - but only slightly.
The Likud party would become Israel's biggest if elections were held today, according to a poll published Friday by Yisrael Hayom. The poll, taken by the Hagal Hechadah (New Wave) organization, says the votes picked up by the Likud would give the right-hareidi coalition 67 Knesset seats instead of the current 65. The National Union would maintain its strength, as would Kadima and the other changes would be minor.
If the prime minister's race was between Binyamin Netanyahu and Tzipi Livni, the incumbent would get 40 percent of the vote and the opposition leader would get 28 percent, with 31 percent not knowing. If Kadima's Shaul Mofaz provided the opposition to the prime minister, Netanyahu would get 43 percent of the vote, with 15 percent for the former chief of staff and 42 percent undecided.
Most pundits did not expect the government to last this long, but it is now more than two years into its four-year term. If I were Netanyahu, if things continue as they are, I would consider calling elections in late 2012. That way, the Left's campaign managers would all be busy with Obama's re-election and could not be sent here to try to defeat Netanyahu as Bill Clinton did in 1999.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Israeli election polls, Tzipi Livni
Could Aryeh Deri bring the Left to power?
Former Shas Chairman Aryeh Deri, who has been out of politics for several years due to his conviction for a 'crime involving moral turpitude' (bribery), would take seven seats - five of them from the Right - if he were to
start his own political party, according to a Dahaf poll.
The dream of the Left is that a party headed by Aryeh Deri, who was previously in the Shas party, would grab enough right wing voters to enable him to put the left into power. Deri is friends with Chaim Ramon and critics say he is devoted to the "holy trinity" (me, myself and I).
For those basing their plans on the results of the poll a word of warning: these results are before any effort has been made to warn that a vote for the Deri party is a vote to bring the left to power, leave the Golan, divide Jerusalem etc. Israel's recent political history is full of people that Yediot Ahronot promoted with favorable Dahaf polls that puttered out at the real poll on election day.
Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Achronot the weeks of 25 February 2011 and published on 25 February 2011
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
28 30 [28] Kadima lead by Livni
21 23 [27] Likud
15 16 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
08 10 [11] Shas
07 07 [13] Labor
06 06 [03] Meretz
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
05 05 [04] Nat'l Union
03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
12 12 [11] Arab parties
02 02 [---] Green party
00 00 [---] Ehud Barak Atzmaut
07 --- [---] Party headed by Aryeh Deri
I know that those of you in the West are probably horrified that a man who has been convicted of bribery could actually return to the Knesset and gain that many votes. Welcome to Israel.
Labels: Aryeh Deri, Israeli election polls
