Assad sought Israeli neutrality on formation of Alawite enclave
As part of an ongoing plan to create an Alawite enclave out of areas marked in yellow and purple (and the light green areas between them) on the map above, Bashar al-Assad asked Israel not to stand in the way if such an enclave were created.
A mediator – a well-known diplomatic figure – is understood to have
been asked by Assad to approach the former Israeli foreign minister,
Avigdor Lieberman, late last year with a request that Israel
not stand in the way of attempts to form an Alawite state, which could
have meant moving some displaced communities into the Golan Heights
area.
A source aware of the talks said that Lieberman had not
rebuffed the approach but had first sought information on the
whereabouts of a missing Israeli airman shot down over Lebanon, Ron
Arad, as well as three Israeli soldiers captured in the Lebanese village
of Sultan Yacoub in 1982, and the remains of Eli Cohen, an Israeli spy
intelligence officer who was caught and executed in Damascus.
The
Syrian military's recent advances on the battlefield appear to have
reduced the urgency in preparations for the collapse of the Syrian
state. But nonetheless, some Alawites fear the war has already
irreversibly changed Syria – and that some communities can no longer
co-exist.
So long as Assad doesn't seek to resettle rebels in the Golan Heights - he could move them east instead - I doubt that Israel would get involved in this.
For those who are not aware, Alwaites are an offshoot of Shia Islam and the Assad family belongs to them.
Still, the entire story (which actually deals mainly with efforts to make the city of Homs part of the Alawite enclave) reminds us once again of the futility of trying to combine ethnically distinct tribes into a nation state. What we are seeing in Syria is the disintegration of a state that was artificially created by France and Britain as part of the Treaty of San Remo after the Ottoman Empire was defeated in World War I. We could yet see other artificial states similarly cobbled together from various ethnic groups - Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq all come to mind - fall apart in the future as well. Those states (with the exception of Lebanon where factions have constantly been at war for years) were or are held together for nearly a century by strongmen. Once the strongmen are no more, the state falls apart. Is the world better or worse off without states like that? That's not an easy question to answer. The answer depends on whether the ethnic tribes - who are unlikely to leave each other alone - can at least be contained in their own areas.
Dershowitz on what Syrian civil war tells us about Israel
The problem with the West is that it doesn't understand what ethnic conflict is about. Alan Dershowitz quotes Fareed Zakaria who explains.
“People fight to the end because they know that losers in such wars get
killed or ‘ethnically cleansed.’” In this kind of war the worlds
“ethnically cleansed” do not mean displaced or made refugees. They mean,
as Zakaria further explained, massacred: “Then you have phase 2, which
is the massacre of the Alawites, the 14 percent of Syria that has ruled
and that will be a bloodbath.”
They don't stop at civilians nor at women and children. In an ethnic conflict, which is what the Syrian civil war is and is likely to be, everyone is murdered. It's real ethnic cleansing. Dershowitz explains what that means for Israel.
Imagine then what would happen if Israel were ever to lose a war with
its Arab and Muslim enemies (as it almost did when it was attacked on
Yom Kippur in 1973 by the Egyptian and Syrian armies.) The hatred
directed against Jews in general and Israel in particular by Israel’s
enemies is far more malignant than the animosity between Sunni and Shia
Muslims or between Muslim and Christian Arabs. It is taught in schools,
preached in mosques and repeated in the media. There would be no mercy
shown. Israeli armies would not be allowed to surrender and be
repatriated, as the Egyptian army was when it was trapped in Sinai at
the end of the 1973 war.
Israeli civilians would be targeted as
they already have been by Hamas and Hezbollah rockets fired in the
direction of large population centers. The goal of the first war against
Israel, as expressed by one of its leaders, was “this will be a war of
extermination.” The desire for revenge has only grown over the course of
further warfare and more defeats.
Every Israeli lives under the
grim shadow of this reality. Nor do they count on timely outside
intervention to prevent massacres. Remember, this is a nation built on
the memory of the Holocaust, during which the world – including the
United States, Great Britain and Canada – shut their gates on those
seeking to escape genocide.
Of course, what Dershowitz doesn't get is that the Israeli - 'Palestinian' conflict is also an ethnic conflict, and given the opportunity, the 'Palestinians' would do the same thing to Israeli Jews that Syrian Muslims would do to Jews, or that Syrian Sunni and Shia (including Alawites) would do to each other.
Any argument between the United States and Canada is an argument between two civilized friends.
The conflict between Israel and the 'Palestinians' (and the Arab Islamic world in general) is an ethnic existential conflict, where one side is Islamic savages who live in the 8th century, and the other side is mostly westernized Jews.
Obama is a moron if he really doesn't see the difference.
Fearing sectarian violence from Syria is spilling over, the Gulf states have ordered their citizens to leave Lebanon.
Lebanese Shi'ite gunmen kidnapped more than 20 people on Wednesday in retaliation for the capture of one of their kinsmen in Syria, prompting Sunni Gulf states to warn their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.
A Turk, a Saudi and several Syrians were among those abducted in an area of Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah Shi'ite militants, raising the risk that the sectarian violence driving the conflict in Syria will spread to its neighbor, which fought its own civil war on sectarian lines for 15 years.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar told their citizens to leave Lebanon after the kidnappings and threats to seize more citizens of countries that have backed the uprising against Syria's President Bashar Assad.
Members of the Meqdad clan, one of Lebanon's powerful Shi'ite families, said the kidnapping was retaliation for the capture of kinsman Hassan al-Meqdad by the rebel Free Syrian Army in Damascus two days ago.
They said their hostages included a Turkish businessman, a Saudi and several Syrians they described as rebel fighters.
In remarks to Lebanon's National News Agency, Hassan al-Meqdad's brother Hatem said "the snowball would grow", and warned "Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey and their citizens".
Anyone else we need distracted so we can attack Iran? Heh.
Elliott Abrams said he was writing about how to avoid a civil war in Syria, but he makes a couple of key points about how to bring down Bashar al-Assad.
Finally, the U.S. should be pressing the Syrian opposition-the traditional leadership inside the country (at least those still out of prison), and the new groups such as those that met recently in Turkey-to state with greater clarity their commitment to civil peace when the Assads are gone. They should pledge that post-Assad Syria will protect all minorities-the Alawites, Kurds and the very nervous Christian communities. They should agree now to an international role in providing these protections and guarantees. The more detailed these pledges are, and the more publicity and international support they get, the more good they will do inside Syria.
But for all the justified focus on Syria, the single event that would most help bring down the Assads would be the fall of Moammar Gadhafi in Libya. It still isn't clear today if the lesson of the Arab Spring is that dictators are doomed or that dictators willing to shoot peaceful protesters can win. Once Gadhafi goes, the oxygen Libya is sucking from the Arab struggle for democracy will circulate again. The NATO effort-however poorly implemented-will have finally been a success, and threats of possible military action to prevent civilians, especially refugees, will have some credibility.
Elliott thinks that the Assad cronies can be separated from the Alawites. I'm not sure that's correct. Moreover, there's a funny thing about ethnic conflicts: None of the parties usually wants to resolve them except by its own total victory. The kind of trust needed to hold off an ethnic conflict is not an abundant commodity.
But read the whole thing - I haven't seen too many other people present a real game plan for getting rid of Assad.
There are those who believe passionately that all human beings are inherently good and rational creatures, essentially the same once you get beyond surface disagreements. Such people cannot accept the reality of a culture that extols death over life, that inculcates a vitriolic hatred of Jews, that induces children to idolize terrorists. Since they would never murder a family in its sleep without being driven to it by some overpowering horror, they imagine that nobody would. This is the mindset that sees a massacre of Jews and concludes that Jews must in some way have provoked it. It’s the mindset behind the narrative that continually blames Israel for the enmity of its neighbors and makes it Israel’s responsibility to end their violence.
The truth is simpler, and bleaker. Human goodness is not hard-wired. It takes sustained effort and healthy values to produce good people; in the absence of those values, cruelty and intolerance are far more likely to flourish.
For years the Palestinian Authority has demonized Israelis and Jews as enemies to be destroyed, vermin to be loathed, and infidels to be terrorized. Children who grow up under Palestinian rule are inundated on all sides — in school, in the mosques, on radio and TV, even in summer camps and popular music — with messages that glorify bloodshed, promote hatred, and lionize “martyrdom.’’
None of this is news. The toxic incitement that pervades Palestinian culture has been massively documented. What children are taught in Palestinian classrooms, Hillary Clinton said in 2007, is “to see martyrdom and armed struggle and the murder of innocent people as ideals to strive for. . . . This propaganda is dangerous.’’
Indeed. In light of Friday night's massacre, a belief in the basic goodness of all people seems naive at best and dangerous at worst.
Much of the West doesn't get ethnic conflict. Raised in assimilated, heterogeneous societies, they cannot fathom a win-at-all-costs mentality in which tribes and families fight each other to the death. Indeed, one of our problems here in Israel is that so many of us come from Western societies that we too have trouble grasping that there are people out there - among us - who want us dead for no reason other than the fact that we are Jews.
When the Koran says to murder Jews, it's not kidding and its adherents take it seriously. Most Israelis now get that, but most Westerners do not.
A lot of you in the West may read that and think "why would I want to live like that?" For me, at least, the reason I want to live like that is out of a sense of commitment to God and his Torah (written law). I firmly believe that God wants Jews to live in Israel. And so, I live here.
Some of you may recall a post I did in July 2009 about tribal bickering at a soccer game in Jordan between a Jordanian team and a 'Palestinian' team.
Approximately 70% of Jordan's population is 'Palestinian.' The family of King Abdullah (known as the 'Hashemites') is transplanted from the Gulf region. It was 'given' the 'Kingdom' of Jordan (then known as Trans-Jordan) as a consolation prize by the British after losing custodianship over the Islamic holy places in Mecca and Medina to their cousins the al-Faisals (the Saudi royal family). I'll explain that more fully below.
In the meantime, the 'Jordanians' (the King's family? the nomadic Bedouin tribes from the area who never crossed the Jordan River into Israel seeking economic opportunity?) nearly started a brawl at a soccer game over the weekend. The soccer game was between - get this - a 'Jordanian' team and a 'Jordanian - Palestinian' team:
The tensions reached their peak over the weekend when tens of thousands of fans of Jordan's Al-Faisali soccer team chanted slogans condemning Palestinians as traitors and collaborators with Israel. Al-Faisali was playing the rival Wihdat soccer team, made up of Jordanian-Palestinians, in the Jordanian town of Zarqa.
Anti-riot policemen had to interfere to stop the Jordanian fans from lynching the Wihdat team members and their fans, eyewitnesses reported. They said the Jordanian fans of Al-Faisali hurled empty bottles and fireworks at the Palestinian players and their supporters.
Reports in a number of Jordanian newspapers said that the Jordanian fans also chanted anti-Palestinian slogans and cursed Palestine, the PLO, Jerusalem and the Aksa Mosque.
Imagine that? They 'cursed' the 'holy' Aqsa mosque. Well, that ought to tell you that even they know that the mosque was never a Muslim holy site. It was built atop a Jewish holy site to try to vanquish Jewish claims to the site - a pattern Muslims have repeated all over the world (ask the Hindus in India).
What those of you who have not lived in the Middle East may not realize is that the entire concept of a 'Jordanian' or 'Palestinian' is nothing but a fiction. These people are all Arabs from different tribes and families, but essentially ethnically all the same people. They're less different from each other than the Jets are from the Sharks.
That incident was deemed important enough that US charge d'affaires in Amman Lawrence Mandel wrote a cable about it to Washington. Wikileaks released that cable on Monday.
According to the dispatch, written on July 28, 2009, by the US charge d’affaires in Amman, Lawrence Mandel, “Anti-Palestinian hooliganism and slogans denigrating the Palestinian origins of both the Queen and the Crown Prince led to the cancellation of a July 17 soccer game” between two rival teams, one – Faisali – which “is the favored team of tribal East Bankers,” and the other – Wahadat – the “proxy champions” of the Palestinian Jordanians.
Faisali supporters chanted about the Palestinian origins of Queen Rania with the cheer, “Divorce her you father of Hussein, and we’ll marry you to two of ours.”
According to the dispatch, “There is broad recognition throughout Jordan that the Faisali-Wahdat incident exposed the uncomfortable gap between East Bankers and Palestinian-origin Jordanians – one that most would rather keep well-hidden for the sake of political stability.
“The connection between this rift and the Hashemite monarchy, including the newly-appointed Crown Prince, makes the incident even more unsettling.”
The charges d’affaires said that even the “most forthcoming contacts” were reluctant to talk about the issue, “recognizing that it strikes at the core of Jordanian identity politics.”
One source was quoted as saying that non-Palestinian East Bankers are “uncomfortable with the increasing pressures for reform that will inevitably lessen their near-monopoly on political and social power.”
The dispatch said that Jordan’s “self-censoring media” did not deal with the hooliganism at the game, nor tell why the game was called off. Internet news sites, however, were replete with commentary on the game.
Many on the Internet “defended the Faisali supporters as ‘real’ Jordanians fighting against undue Palestinian influence.”
According to the dispatch, “The King’s silence on the game and its political implications is deafening. High level government contacts and members of the diplomatic community are puzzled by the King’s failure to respond to a verbal attack on his family that also dips into Jordanian identity politics.”
While perhaps unintentional, the dispatch read, “The King’s silence has effectively empowered the pro-status quo establishment.”
And of course, the 'pro-status quo establishment' consists of people who will never allow the dispute between Israel and the 'Palestinians' to be resolved unless it means that they can push their entire 'Palestinian' population back across the Jordan River.
What many people outside the region don't appreciate is the extent to which so much of the rivalry here is tribal rather than ethnic or religious. Sure, there are rivalries between Sunnis and Shia, between Christian Copts and Egyptian Muslims, and between Jordanian Bedouin from the royal family and 'Palestinians.' But the entire notion of dividing the Middle East into nation states is an artificial one imposed by the British and the French in the 1920's. The real divisions here are based on tribes and families (even in Israel by the way - although the divisions here are much, much less sharp than in the Arab world). That's the real reason why this region hasn't known peace for the last 100 years. The divisions among the tribes always ensure that there are new things to fight about.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
