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Sunday, July 17, 2016

Potentially huge: Massive explosions in defense facilites in Aleppo, Syria

Shavua tov, a good week everyone.

Aside from the attempted coup in Turkey, there have been more than ten massive explosions in a weapons plant in Aleppo, Syria.

Let's go to the videotape. Make sure you see the note on top:

Here's the first post about the explosions:

And here are some more:

Unsurprisingly, here in Israel there have been no comments.

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Thursday, June 16, 2016

'Palestinians' whine to pollsters over Sunni Arabs preferring their own interests

There's a very detailed poll of 'Palestinian' public opinion out ('Palestinian' public opinion tends to be more measurable than in other places in the Arab Islamic world - they learned from Israel). While I may come back to this poll eventually, I'd like to focus on this part for a minute. Keep in mind that this is 'Palestinian' public opinion and not Sunni Arab or other Arabs or Muslims.
(7) The Arab World, war in Syria, ISIS, and US elections: 
78% say the Arab World is too preoccupied with its own concerns, internal
conflicts, and the conflict with Iran and that Palestine is no longer the
Arab’s principal or primary issue or cause. Only 20% think Palestine remains
the Arab’s principle cause. 
They finally are starting to understand that the Arab world is tired of them. It's the anti-Semitic Europeans who have been carrying the ball for the 'Palestinians' for many years now. While the Arab world has not made peace with us, there is a de facto detente, and this a result of shared interests and not love. But the bottom line is that the Arab world has abandoned the 'Palestinians' even more so than it did previously. 
59% believe that there is an Arab Sunni alliance with Israel against Iran
despite the continued Israeli occupation of Arab land while 30% believe that
the Arabs would not ally themselves with Israel until it ends its occupation
and allows the creation of a Palestinian state. 
I'm with the majority. Just from what we know, there is an alliance, and I'd estimate that it's even stronger behind the scenes. The 30% who think that the Arabs wouldn't ally themselves with Israel to save their own necks is simply unrealistic. 
In light of the escalating conflict in Syria and the emergence of three main
parties to the conflict, we asked the public for its view on the party it
views as the more preferable or the one it views as the least harmful. The
largest percentage (40%) chose the Free Syrian army, 18% chose Bashar Asad
and his army, and 5% chose the extreme religious opposition, such as ISIS.
23% said they do not like any of the three parties. 
The Syrian Free Army will go down in history as one of the biggest (of many) foreign policy mistakes by the Obama administration. The FSA could have become a 'moderate' (in relative terms) group had Obama and Clinton chosen to aid it in 2011-12. They did not. Now, it's nearly as Islamist as ISIS. Why Trump isn't pounding Clinton on this.... 
An overwhelming majority of 88% believes that ISIS is a radical group that
does not represent true Islam and 8% believe it does represent true Islam.
4% are not sure or do not know. In the Gaza Strip, 16% (compared to 3% in
the West Bank) say ISIS represents true Islam. 
79% support and 18% oppose the war waged by Arab and Western countries
against ISIS. 
 This is actually a pleasant surprise. 
We asked the public about the US elections and which presidential candidate,
Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump, it viewed best for the Palestinians. A large
majority (70%) said there is no difference between the two candidates, while
12% said Clinton is better and 7% said Trump is better.
I'd love to see a survey of what US citizens in Israel think of the US elections....  I don't like either of them, and am tempted to 'stay home.'

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Sunday, April 26, 2015

Report: Israeli strike in Syria meant to avoid being dragged into war

A report in a Kuwaiti newspaper - sourced to a Western diplomat - indicates that an IAF strike against a Syrian missile base on Friday night thwarted a plan to launch long-range missiles against Israeli targets in the Golan Heights in a bid to draw Israel into a war.
The Western diplomatic source was quoted by Al-Jarida as saying that the alleged Israeli raid targeted two brigades of the Syrian Army, which housed long-range strategic weapons to be transferred to Hezbollah.

The Western diplomatic source confirmed to Al Jarida on Sunday that IDF fighter jets were behind the attack in the Qalamun Mountain region near the Syria-Lebanon border. The IDF has refused to address the claims, saying that its policy is not to respond to foreign reports.

The source told Al Jarida that the "the raid was a preemptive strike to prevent a plan to hit strategic targets in the Golan, which would draw Israel into a war with Syria, and shuffle the cards."
Hmmm.

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Not just one raid on Syria-Lebanon border

I have now resolved at least some of the confusion regarding reported IAF raids on Syrian missile facilities over the past few days. There wasn't just one raid. There were at least two.
The first set of strikes (which also remains the least confirmed) targeted a Hezbollah weapons convoy traveling in the border area on April 22, hitting at least three trucks and killing at least one commander. The second set of strikes occurred during the overnight hours of April 24-25, and are believed to have hit at least three targets in heavily militarized areas of eastern Qalamoun, north of Damascus, which host some of the Assad regime’s most loyal and well-equipped units. The units hit include the 155th Scud missile brigade which has bases near the Damascus suburb al-Qutayfa, and the 65th Armored Brigade in areas around the Qalamoun town of Yabroud. In total, claims by Syrian rebels and foreign media outlets suggest that this set of strikes included at least three targets throughout the Qalamoun region, killing a number of Syrian and Hezbollah troops.
...
In the past, these strikes have targeted anti-aircraft missiles, advanced Yakhont anti-ship missiles, and long range surface-to-surface missiles, with last night’s attacks likely aimed at targeting Scud B or Scud D missiles from being transferred to Hezbollah.
That said, these strikes are the first of their kind to occur after several key local and regional developments, mainly the launching of Saudi-led intervention against Iranian proxies in Yemen, significant losses by the Assad regime in northern and southern Syria, and Hezbollah’s January 2015 announcement that the “rules of the game” with Israel had changed. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah made that announcement after Hezbollah attacked an Israeli military convoy in broad daylight, from Lebanese territory, in which Israel refrained from retaliating. Nasrallah claimed that the attack was an ‘eye-for-an-eye’ styled response to an Israeli attack on a Hezbollah-Iranian command convoy in the Golan Heights on January 18th. Israel’s hesitancy to respond was hailed by the group as a testament to its regional stature, and had left many wondering how Hezbollah would respond to future Israeli attacks against its interests in Syria.
Israel’s alleged airstrikes this week pose a major challenge to the regional deterrence of the Iranian axis, particularly as an emboldened Saudi Arabia increasingly hints at intervening in Syria. Unlike past attacks, Hezbollah and the Assad regime have refrained from making public threats or even confirming that the strikes took place. On the one hand, this silence may signal that Nasrallah and Assad seek to refrain from committing to retaliation against Israel and risking an escalation. However, it is more likely that they do seek to retaliate against Israel in some way, shape, or form, reserving the right to claim responsibility at a time which suites them, and reduces the risk of a massive Israeli response.
And this may only be the beginning. Read the whole thing. 

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More on Israeli raid on Syrian missile position

In an earlier post, I blogged a cryptic report on an Israeli raid on a Syrian missile storage site along that country's border with Lebanon.

Here are a few more details.
Hmmm.

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Monday, April 20, 2015

Must read: Who is Islamic State?

They are led by former officers in Saddam's regime. They aren't very Islamic. And their spying techniques would put George Orwell's 1984 protagonists to shame.

Those are some of the tidbits I gleaned from this article about the inner workings of Islamic State.

Especially if you, like me, feel like you need a scorecard to understand what's going on in Iraq and Syria, read the whole thing.

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Thursday, March 05, 2015

In case you didn't notice, it's not just about Israel

Israel is not the only US ally that is concerned about developments in the negotiations over Iran's nuclear capability. In case you hadn't noticed, the Gulf States are not exactly jumping for joy either (Hat Tip: Eli Tabori).
The Israeli prime minister’s public confrontation with President Barack Obama over the U.S. administration’s pursuit of a nuclear bargain with Iran may have drawn all the spotlight this week. But America’s other key allies across the Middle East—such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates—are just as distraught, even if they lack the kind of lobbying platform that Benjamin Netanyahu was offered in Congress.
...
“A lot of the Gulf countries feel they are being thrown under the bus,” said Mishaal al-Gergawi, managing director of the Delma Institute in Abu Dhabi and a prominent Emirati political commentator. “The Gulf thought it was in a monogamous relationship with the West, and now it realizes it’s being cheated on because the U.S. was in an open relationship with it.”
Trying to assuage such concerns, Secretary of State John Kerry flew Wednesday to Saudi Arabia. There, he is slated to discuss with King Salman and foreign ministers of other Gulf nations their worries that the nuclear deal may enable Iran to dominate the region. 
...
Even before the revolution, Iran tried to dominate the Gulf, laying claim to Shiite-majority Bahrain and seizing disputed islands claimed by the U.A.E.
Taking advantage of the Obama administration’s attempt to pivot away from the region, Tehran in recent years asserted its influence in Baghdad and solidified its control in Damascus and Beirut. Last month, pro-Iranian Houthi Shiite militias seized power in Yemen’s capital San’a and ousted that country’s U.S.-backed president.
The Sunni Arab nations led by Saudi Arabia that are engaged in proxy conflicts with Tehran in Yemen, Syria, Bahrain and Lebanon view this confrontation as an existential zero-sum game—and interpret any American opening to Iran, and any relaxation of the economic sanctions that have hobbled Iran’s ability to project power, as succor to the enemy.
“Some of these countries are more worried about the consequences of the deal, about how it will change the balance of power in the region, rather than the actual contents of the deal,” explained Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank. These fears are overblown, he said: “The reality is that the U.S. may have a tactical overlap in its interests in the region with Iran, but strategically it sees the region in a very different way.”
That may be true, but this tactical overlap has already created strategic consequences in the crucial battlefields of Syria and Iraq, cementing Iran’s sway in both nations.
 Read the whole thing. Will the Gulf States decide that 'my enemy's enemy is my friend'?

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Monday, January 19, 2015

Report: Israel coordinating with Syrian rebels

A report in al-Monitor claims that Sunday's Israeli strike on the Golan Heights is the result of coordination  between Israel and the Syrian rebels.
According to a UN report covering the period from March to May 2014, the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) detected contact between rebels and the Israeli army across the Golan cease-fire line, particularly during fierce clashes between the Syrian army and the rebels. The report also confirmed that the UN forces spotted rebels transporting 89 wounded across the cease-fire line into the Israeli occupied zone, where they were handed over 19 people who had received medical treatment in addition to two dead. The UN forces also noted that the Israeli army delivered two boxes to rebels on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.
Communications increased between rebels and the Israeli army before the eruption of the southern front in Daraa and Quneitra in September, according to Quneitra opposition activist Mohammad Qasim, a pseudonym due to the sensitivity of the subject.
Qasim, who was active in a support capacity to the rebels during the September offensive, told Al-Monitor via Skype, “The battle to capture Quneitra on Sept. 27 was preceded by coordination and communications between Abu Dardaa, a leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Israeli army to pave the way for the attack. And according to an FSA commander who partly participated in this battle, the Israeli army provided Abu Dardaa with maps of the border area and the Syrian army’s strategic posts in the southern area.”
The rebels’ battle, led by al-Qaeda’s affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, to control the Quneitra crossing took place in coordination with the Israeli army through Abu Dardaa, according to Qasim. He added, “During the clashes, the Israelis heavily bombarded many of the regime’s posts, shot down a warplane that was trying to impede the progress of the fighters and targeted other aircraft.”
The media reported that on Sept. 23, Israel downed a MiG-21 Syrian military aircraft over the occupied Golan Heights during the intensification of fighting between rebel fighters led by Jabhat al-Nusra and the Syrian army.
There's much more - read the whole thing. 'Qasim' is not too happy about the coordination with Israel, and neither is the other person they interview in the article. But this is the Middle East, and my enemy's enemy is my friend.

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Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Syrian opposition: Obama allowed ISIS cancer to metastasize

An Israeli Druze who is in touch with the Syrian opposition accuses the Hussein Obama administration of allowing what he calls the ISIS cancer to metastasize. He also reports that the (non-Islamist) opposition wants friendly relations with Israel.
Mendi Safadi, an Israeli Druse who served as former Likud deputy minister Ayoub Kara’s chief of staff, has independently met with members of the liberal and democratic Syrian opposition who oppose the Islamists and want friendly relations with Israel.

Safadi, who met with senior opposition officials last week, has traveled in the region, met with activists, and relayed messages from them to the Prime Minister’s Office.

He was responsible for relaying the congratulatory letters from the Syrian opposition to then President-elect Reuven Rivlin.

Islamic State should have been dealt with months ago, when it was concentrated in much smaller territory, Safadi told The Jerusalem Post in an interview on Sunday.

“Islamic State is a cancer,” and just like the disease, “it needed to be attacked before it spread.”

...

Islamic State could have been finished off three months ago if the US had acted decisively at that time, said Safadi, but now that the group has spread, it will require a much more robust ground operation to eliminate the group’s hold on territory in Iraq and Syria.

Safadi showed the Post documentation identifying two apparent spies who infiltrated Islamic State and were sending him information about the group in return for cash.

Not all of the fighters affiliated with Islamic State are true believers, he said, noting that some have come to the conclusion on their own that the group is extreme and dangerous.

...

Safadi also claimed that his sources in Islamic State told him about the group’s upcoming declaration of a caliphate, a month-and-a-half before it was to occur.

Safadi said that he shared the intelligence with Israel and contacts in the United States six months ago, but no action that he is aware of was taken to halt the group at that point.
Safadi also claims that if the US supported the non-Islamist rebels, the war could be over in months. Read the whole thing.

But of course, that won't happen. Hussein Obama wants the world to be taken over by radical Islam. What could go wrong?

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Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Syrian rebels congratulate Rivlin

A Syrian rebel leader has sent a letter of congratulations to Israel's President-elect, Reuven Rivlin.
According to Ma'ariv, Mohammed Adnan, the chairman of a group called, the Revolutionary Congregation for Syria's Future, sent Rivlin a letter, stating that "as a Syrian rebel," he was looking forward to "new ties based on honesty and sincerity between the Syrian and Israeli people."

"I will be so glad be to be the first one of the well-wishers to you, Mr. Reuven, president of the State of Israel," Adnan added.

Adnan said that he was "eager for the moment" when both Israel and the Syrian rebels celebrate victory "over the outlaw trinity of the Assad family, Hezbollah, and Iran."

The letter, which is in English, appeared to be written with the help of Google Translate.
Is this Shimon Peres' New Middle East? Or are we going to see a retraction? And by the way, notice no mention of the Golan. Hmmm.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Assad forces destroy oldest synagogue in Syria

The picture above is just one of several exclusive pictures published at the Daily Beast showing the destruction of the Eliyahu HaNavi synagogue in Damascus, the oldest synagogue in Syria. The synagogue was destroyed by forces loyal to dictator Bashar al-Assad.
This week’s attack, though the final blow, was not the first time the Syrian regime had bombarded the Jobar Synagogue. An Israeli news report from April 2013 noted that the synagogue had been “looted and destroyed,” although later photos proved that the synagogue had taken only moderate damage from a mortar shell.
Last December, photos emerged in another Israeli news report showing that many of the synagogues most precious artifacts were intact. The report stated that the bulk of the synagogue’s artifact collection was being held safely in the hands of local leaders.
Before the conflict, the synagogue held thousands of religious and cultural treasures, including hundreds years old Torah scrolls, historical texts, precious dining ware, and ancient Judaica of all sorts. Some of the items were reportedly looted in the early days of the war. Some were reportedly placed in safekeeping. Many remained in the building until its destruction.
...
The Eliyahu Hanabi Synagogue, built to honor the prophet Elijah, had existed at least since medieval times. The site has been a destination for Jewish pilgrimage for centuries. It was said to have been built atop the cave where Elijah hid from his persecutors. The Prophet Elisha, who allegedly built the synagogue, was said to have anointed King Hazael on its steps, now gone.
 Read the whole thing.

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Sunday, April 13, 2014

Assad vewy vewy angwy

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is vewy vewy angwy after a Syrian opposition leader provided an interview with Israeli news media in which he expressed support for the Jewish state.
"We have the same enemies and similar interests," [Dr. Kamal] Al-Labwani stated Friday evening, in a special interview with Walla! News. "Now is the time [to work together] it seems that any later will be too late." 
"The Syrian nation wants to topple President Bashar Assad's [forces], they also want to prevent extremists from replacing him," he continued. "This is what Israel wants: to distance itself from Assad, from the pact between Iran and Hezbollah, but also to prevent Al Qaeda from taking control." 
Al-Labwani stressed that the solution is for the international community to support "moderate" opposition groups in Syria's ongoing civil war. While he insisted "the world has failed Syria," he also claimed that "Israel could be the one to reveal what can happen when you take responsibility and do what's right [. . .] joining with Syria and fighting against [Iran, Al Qaeda, and Hezbollah]."
It's a pity that the 'international community' didn't do that in 2011 when it would have made a difference.

Here's Assad's 'senior political adviser's response.
"Labwani's declarations are not surprising," she said, on a Damascus state television broadcast. "It is known that what is happening in Syria is done through the planning and coordination of [opposition] agents working with Israel."  
"Labwani and his associates, who agreed to be interviewed in Israeli media, are servants of the Zionist regime," she alleged, saying they "have betrayed their country for Zionists and work against their nation and people." 
State television has also quoted segments of the interview as "proof" Syrian opposition forces are "secretly working for Israel," calling Al-Labwani "friend of the Zionists." Both Syria's and Iran's official websites also condemned Al-Labwani for the interview, with the Islamic Republic deeming him "an Israeli agent."
You think that the medical treatment that Israel has provided to wounded Syrian opposition civilians and fighters might be playing a role here? Hmmm.

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Sunday, March 23, 2014

Turkey shoots down Syrian fighter jet

The government of Turkey has confirmed that it shot down a Syrian fighter jet that strayed over its border with Syria.

Let's go to the videotape.



Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was unapologetic.
"A Syrian plane violated our airspace," Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told an election rally of his supporters in northwest Turkey.

"Our F-16s took off and hit this plane. Why? Because if you violate my airspace, our slap after this will be hard," Erdogan said.

The rebels have been fighting for control of the Kasab crossing, the border region, since Friday, when they launched an offensive which Syrian authorities say was backed by Turkey's military.

Syria said Turkish air defenses shot down the jet while it was attacking rebel forces inside Syrian territory, calling the move a "blatant aggression.”

State television quoted a military source as saying the pilot managed to eject from the plane. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said initial reports from the area said the plane came down on the Syrian side of the border.
The Turkish action may be more connected to next week's local Turkish elections than to any real violation of Turkish airspace. 
According to Turkey's Sunday Zaman, the shooting down of the jet may be a government effort to gain political scores ahead of a local vote that is scheduled to take place on March 30.
Citing Turkish officials, NTV reported that Turkish air defense system shot down a Syrian warplane after its incursion to the Turkish territory.
The incident came as Turkish government was mulling options to briefly intervene in Syria to protect the tomb of Süleyman Şah, the grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire, whose security is provided by the Turkish troops as part of an agreement with the Syrian authorities.
Concerns over a possible Turkish military intervention in Syria have been floated following news of clashes between an al-Qaeda splinter group and other Syrian opposition groups in the area.
In response to these reports, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said Turkey will retaliate in the event of an attack on the tomb of Süleyman Şah irrespective of where the attack comes from.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the main Turkish opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), warned against any Turkish military incursion to Syria ahead of elections. According to the CHP leader, Erdoğan aims to divert public attention from a sweeping graft scandal that implicated the Erdoğan family.
Faster, faster.... 

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Sunday, March 16, 2014

Syrian rebels offer Israel the Golan in exchange for a no-fly zone over southern Syria

Syrian rebels have offered to sell the Golan Heights to Israel in exchange for Israel using the territory to enforce a no-fly zone over southern Syria.
In a report in Al-Arab newspaper, quoted by Iranian news agency Fars on Saturday, a member of the Syrian opposition coalition is quoted as saying the rebels were willing to sell the Golan Heights to Israel in return for military aid against President Bashar Assad's army.
"Why shouldn’t we be able to sell the Golan Heights because it is better than losing Syria and Golan at once," Kamal Al-Labvani told the Arab newspaper, according to Fars.


The opposition wants to use Israel's air defense systems, including American-made surface-to-air Patriot missiles, to enforce a no-fly zone over southern parts of Syria in order to prevent Assad's air force of bombarding rebel strongholds.
Hmmm. I assume this is the secular elements of the Syrian opposition and not the al-Qaeda backed elements....

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Monday, December 30, 2013

What if 15 'Palestinians' died of hunger and no one cared?

It was just last week that Israel released a 'Palestinian' terrorist from jail to get him to end a 266-day hunger strike.
The terrorist, Samir Issawi, was sentenced to 26 years in prison for terrorism in 2002, and was set free as part of the 'terrorists for Gilad deal' in 2011. He was rearrested for engaging in terrorism again. Now, he has been released again....
In 2002 Issawi was sentenced to 26 years in jail for terrorism, going free after a mere 10 years in the deal to free Gilad Shalit. After signing a promise not to return to terrorist activities, Issawi promptly broke those conditions and was rearrested in August 2012.
After 8 months of hunger striking, Issawi was admitted to an Israeli hospital, and offered an arrangement to stop his hunger strike and go home after 8 more months of imprisonment. Issawi agreed to the deal, and was subsequently freed this week to his Jerusalem home.
Issawi was released because of international pressure brought to bear on Israel to release the terrorist. 

Similarly, the 'international community' rushes to decry the 'blockade' of Gaza and to send 'flotillas' of supplies to help its 'poor, starving' people.

But when 15 'Palestinians' starve to death, you don't read about it in the New York Times or the Guardian. You have to go to Maan to read about it. Because these 15 'Palestinians' weren't in Gaza and they weren't in the 'West Bank.' They were in Syria.
At least 15 Palestinians have died of hunger since September in a besieged refugee camp in the Syrian capital Damascus, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees told AFP on Monday.

"Reports have come in over the weekend that at least five Palestinian refugees in the besieged refugee camp of Yarmouk in Damascus have died because of malnutrition, bringing the total number of reported cases to 15," UN Relief and Works Agency spokesman Chris Gunness told AFP.

He warned of a deteriorating situation in the camp, where some 20,000 Palestinians are trapped, with limited food and medical supplies.

"Since September 2013 we have been unable to enter the area to deliver desperately needed relief supplies," Gunness said.

"The continued presence of armed groups that entered the area at the end of 2012 and its closure by government forces have thwarted all our humanitarian efforts."

Most of the Yarmouk camp in southern Damascus is under the control of the armed opposition, and it has been under a siege by troops loyal to President Bashar Assad for around a year.
Nothing to see here.... Just Muslims killing Muslims.... 

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Sunday, December 01, 2013

Report: Nasrallah injured in bomb blast

An unconfirmed posting on Facebook by a Syrian rebel group claims that Hezbullah politburo chief Hassan Nasrallah was injured in a bomb blast that killed 22 members of his group on Sunday.
Syrian rebel forces claim that they have succeeded in injuring Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a Lebanese website reported this morning, citing a Facebook message. No other source has confirmed the report.
...
According to the report, a commander of the Free Syrian Army announced that members of Jabhat Al-Nusra, an Islamist Sunni rebel group linked to Al Qaeda, succeeded in the early morning hours in blowing up the headquarters where Nasrallah lives in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon.
The Lebanese report relies on a Facebook message published by one of the rebel organizations, according to which 22 Hezbollah members guarding Nasrallah were killed during the blast while Nasrallah himself was injured.
 Hmmm.

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Thursday, October 31, 2013

Here we go again: Syrian air base destroyed in missile attack from sea

Rebel sources are reporting that seaborne missiles have destroyed a Syrian airbase near Latakia. The IAF is being blamed. Israel has no comment.
According to reports emanating from the rebels seeking to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad, a large explosion occurred near the army base in Latakia on Wednesday night. Witness posted on Twitter that the explosion happened near coastal city Jableh, 30 kilometers south of Latakia, a stronghold of Assad's Alawites.
It is unclear who is behind the explosion or its purpose. There were no reports of casualties.
Members of the Syrian and Lebanese media have charged that Israel is behind the attack. Israel's defense establishment has not responded to the report.
 Heh.

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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

The Syrian Third way

A Syrian opposition activist claims to represent secular liberal Syrians who wish to live in peace with Israel.
Although Muhammad is in Europe, he says he visits the opposition-held areas in Syria “all the time.” He lived there until 2012 and took part in the early stages of the opposition in 2011. He claims he has good connections in Syria in order to draw in new members to a Syrian political party, promoting liberal democracy and the separation of religion and state. He believes in a third way – “not the Muslim Brotherhood and not president Bashar Assad as until now there has not been another way.”
Asked about funding for those who hold such views, Muhammad said liberal Syrians have their own private sponsors and support from Syria’s business community.
He said an ideal party should be made up of Syrians representing all religions and ethnic groups there, including Christians, Druse, Kurds and Alawites (religion of Assad and his most loyal followers). “We don’t want the dreams of pan-Arab nationalism or partition of the country,” he said.
The problem with the strategy of the EU and the US is that they are not interfering enough to shape events, according to Muhammad. The Muslim Brotherhood is organized, so the US works with them, he opined. “This is a dangerous strategy,” he stated, adding that countries such as Egypt and Syria do not want religion to govern people’s lives. “People are religious, but they don’t want it to be involved in politics,” he asserted.
However, he believes that in any post-Assad landscape, the Islamists should be given a chance to participate in the democratic process, which would be better than having them go underground. “I was living in Syria, and there were not all these radicals for the first year and a half” of the protests, Muhammad claimed. “All the activists were liberal and were trying to be peaceful.”
The regime became more brutal, and the people turned to radical Islamic groups for protection; in this way, the Islamists gained more support, he observed.
In other words, had the West intervened on the rebels' side in the first 12-18 months of the war, they would have been helping a secular opposition which could have won.

But before you get your hopes up, consider this.
Asked about his vision for future Syrian-Israel relations, he responded that change cannot happen quickly, as people have been taught for a long time at school that Israelis are the enemy and are trying to kill Syrians, so Syrians must kill them. However, aiding injured Syrians in Israeli hospitals and various other Israeli human-rights gestures were having a positive effect, raising doubts in the minds of Syrians about what they had been led to believe.
“All this is making people wonder, when they see the killing from their own regime and see the Israeli community treating the wounded. I am talking to a lot of people, and they are thinking: Who is the enemy now?” he exclaimed.
In particular, he mentioned recent moves by the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC to support a US attack on Syria, saying this has left a positive impression with many Syrians.
“I know lots of Israelis. I went to speak at synagogues – even right-wing orthodox ones, and people want to hear,” said Muhammad.
Regarding peace with Syria post-Assad, he said that the main issue is the Golan Heights. “We want direct talks with Israel and to make a peace deal and normalize relations."
“Israel has technology, and Syria can be an industrial supplier,” he said. He believes a majority of Israelis would support giving up the Golan for peace. “There cannot be peace without the Golan,” he declared. As for Israel’s security risks, he responded that in life, there are never any guarantees.
 I can't see most Israelis agreeing to that. I wouldn't. Most Israelis are grateful these days that we didn't give up the Heights in the late '90's.

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Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Report: One country has already intervened in Syria

As President Obama tries to decide whether the United States should attack Syria, and as the United States and other western countries worry over whether an attack on Bashar al-Assad will tip the war to the rebels, one putative US ally is already interfering on the side of the rebels with boots on the ground. That putative ally is Turkey (Hat Tip: Joshua I) (link in Kurdish).

According to the article (which I am not able to translate - Kurdish is not one of the 71 languages covered by Google Translate and I was not able to find an online translation service), there are at least some Free Syrian Army units that have Turkish commanders.

Hmmm.

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Israel's and the United States' interest in Syria

What are the interests of Israel and the United States in the current situation in Syria? This is one of the better analyses I've seen - mainly because it consults several experts. Here's one of the more detailed analyses cited:
Prof. Barry Rubin, director of the GLORIA Center and a columnist for the Post, said that the civil war is in a state of deadlock and that there has been little change in the last year in the balance of power between the sides. This, Rubin added, is likely to continue for years unless outside intervention tips the scales.
Israeli interests in light of the Syrian conflict revolve around the following points, according to Rubin. First, by attacking, the US would show it lives up to its commitments; secondly, the impact of action or inaction by the US on Iran¹s nuclear weapon program; thirdly, the identity of who will be running the show in next-door Syria; and fourth, Israel¹s fear that it won¹t be attacked and/or that chemical weapons may be sent to Hezbollah.
A key question that has not been discussed much, says Rubin, is what Iran wants out of this – does it seek total victory in Syria or would it be happy with some kind of partition of the country in order to maintain its access to the Mediterranean? Asked about the latter possibility, Rubin said it might not be agreed upon, but it is possible that it could become a de facto reality, or it might come about if some kind of Western-backed agreement implements a cease-fire based on geographical lines.
In any case, he said, “a US attack is not going to settle the civil war.”
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