Israel Matzav

How to bring down Assad

Elliott Abrams said he was writing about how to avoid a civil war in Syria, but he makes a couple of key points about how to bring down Bashar al-Assad.

Finally, the U.S. should be pressing the Syrian opposition-the traditional leadership inside the country (at least those still out of prison), and the new groups such as those that met recently in Turkey-to state with greater clarity their commitment to civil peace when the Assads are gone. They should pledge that post-Assad Syria will protect all minorities-the Alawites, Kurds and the very nervous Christian communities. They should agree now to an international role in providing these protections and guarantees. The more detailed these pledges are, and the more publicity and international support they get, the more good they will do inside Syria.

But for all the justified focus on Syria, the single event that would most help bring down the Assads would be the fall of Moammar Gadhafi in Libya. It still isn't clear today if the lesson of the Arab Spring is that dictators are doomed or that dictators willing to shoot peaceful protesters can win. Once Gadhafi goes, the oxygen Libya is sucking from the Arab struggle for democracy will circulate again. The NATO effort-however poorly implemented-will have finally been a success, and threats of possible military action to prevent civilians, especially refugees, will have some credibility.

Elliott thinks that the Assad cronies can be separated from the Alawites. I'm not sure that's correct. Moreover, there's a funny thing about ethnic conflicts: None of the parties usually wants to resolve them except by its own total victory. The kind of trust needed to hold off an ethnic conflict is not an abundant commodity.

But read the whole thing - I haven't seen too many other people present a real game plan for getting rid of Assad.

Labels: Alawite, Bashar al-Assad, Elliott Abrams, ethnic conflict, Syrian uprising

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:45 PM