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Friday, December 14, 2012

Poll: Israel shifting even further to the Right

We're feeling the hope and change here in Israel, but not in the direction that the Obama administration and the Euroweenies want us to go.

A new poll out Friday morning shows the merged Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu party losing seats... to the even further right Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) party. The poll was taken before the indictment of Avigdor Lieberman, the head of Yisrael Beiteniu, broke on Thursday. And recall that this is after the Likud's own Knesset slate shifted to the Right. 
The joint Likud-Yisrael Beytenu list would win only 35 seats in the next Knesset – seven fewer than their 42 in the outgoing parliament – according to a Geocartography poll taken for The Jerusalem Post Group’s Hebrew daily the Israel Post in honor of its inaugural weekend edition (Sof Hashavua), which will come out on Friday.
The poll of 500 respondents, representing a statistical sample of the country’s population, was taken on Wednesday, before Attorney-General Yehuda Weinstein announced his decision about Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman. It was the same day that Liberman’s attacks on Europe at The Jerusalem Post Diplomatic Conference in Herzliya dominated headlines.
It's not just a question of numbers.
When asked whether the country’s diplomatic situation had improved or worsened over the past four years, 54.1 percent of respondents said it had worsened, 15.4% said it had improved, and 23.6% said there had been no change.
The poll, which has a 4.2-percentage point margin of error, found that mandates from the Likud and Yisrael Beytenu would not shift to Center-Left parties, but to Bayit Yehudi, further to the Right, which would rise from three seats in the current Knesset to 16. The Tzipi Livni Party, which formed to attract votes from the Right by highlighting the diplomatic issue, would win only seven seats, according to the poll.
Labor would win 17 seats, Yesh Atid 12, Shas 10, United Torah Judaism and Meretz six each, Hadash and United Arab List four apiece, and Balad three.
Kadima, Am Shalem, Strong Israel and Green Leaf would not pass the 2-percent electoral threshold.
And here's an indication of how much the country has had it with the 'Palestinians.'
Asked if they believed Balad MK Haneen Zoabi should be permitted to run for Knesset, 69.4% said no, and only 13.4% said yes.
Zoabi, as you might recall, is the inflammatory 'Israeli Arab' MK who hitched a ride on the Mavi Marmara.

But there's something weird about this poll. Compare it to the Smith poll:
The Smith poll predicted 29 seats for Likud Beytenu, up two mandates from Smith’s last poll two weeks ago. Labor would win 19, Bayit Yehudi and Shas 10, Lapid’s and Livni’s parties nine each, UTJ six, Meretz, Hadash and Balad four each, and Am Shalem and UAL-Ta’al three apiece.
Kadima and Strong Israel would not pass the threshold.
Someone want to tell me how a party can have 16 seats in one poll and 10 in another. That's quite a difference.

Read the whole thing.

If the Geocartography poll is correct and votes are shifting from Likud to Bayit Yehudi, it means that Netanyahu will find it difficult to impossible to bring back Meridor and Begin, his more 'centrist' ministers who lost in the primaries, whom he wanted to bring back in some capacity. It means that the Likud - Yisrael Beiteinu merger was a huge mistake (which it seems to have been anyway - who needs Yisrael Beiteinu without Lieberman and without Ayalon - but Netanyahu probably did that to moderate his own party like so many other moves he's made). And it means that the Obama administration and the Europeans may soon be longing for the days that they were dealing with Netanyahu and Barak rather than Netanyahu, Bennett and Feiglin.

What could go wrong?

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