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Friday, February 22, 2013

The next Prime Minister of Israel?

A new poll out this morning (Friday) indicates that if new elections were to be held today, Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party would defeat Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud Beiteinu.
The poll found that Yesh Atid would win 30 Knesset seats, Likud Beytenu 22, Bayit Yehudi 15, Labor 13, Shas nine, Meretz seven, United Torah Judaism six, Hadash and The Tzipi Livni Party four each, United Arab List and Strong Israel three each, and Kadima and Balad two each.
The poll had 503 respondents representing a statistical sample of the adult Israeli population, and a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
When asked what Netanyahu’s main consideration is in building his coalition, 59 percent of the respondents said personal issues, 24% said the good of the country, and 17% had no idea.
The very fact that question was asked with those choices for answers tells you that this poll was looking to denigrate Netanyahu. I'm not happy with him either, but Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi have made it almost impossible for Netanyahu to form a coalition without the Left.
President Shimon Peres could initiate another election if Netanyahu fails to form a government by the March 15 deadline. The prime minister’s associates have talked about forming a coalition of 57 MKs, and then telling Bennett ahead of the deadline to either join or initiate an election the Right could lose.
Likud Beytenu will hold its first coalition negotiations with Bayit Yehudi in more than a week on Friday morning at Ramat Gan’s Kfar Maccabiah Hotel. Sources in Bayit Yehudi said they would discuss the as yet unpassed 2013 state budget, how to equalize the burden of IDF service and more matters of principle.
The sources said they would try to reopen the coalition deal Netanyahu signed on Tuesday with Livni, in which she was given the Justice portfolio and authority over negotiations with the Palestinians.
“There is no reason why we cannot advance and reach an agreement on a government led by the nationalist camp,” a Likud source said.
But Bayit Yehudi’s alliance with Yesh Atid has made forming a government much more difficult. Bennett and Lapid met on Thursday with Kadima chairman Shaul Mofaz to coordinate strategy.
A Bayit Yehudi source said after the meeting that he believed all three parties would end up joining the coalition.
I don't believe that. If he has the other two, Netanyahu doesn't need Mofaz and doesn't have to create another ministry for a two-person faction. Netanyahu has already had a bad experience with Mofaz and I don't think he'll take him if he doesn't need him.

I also believe Lapid is determined to be a martyr in opposition.

As to Bennett, his voters didn't vote for Lapid. He had 18 seats in the polls until Netanyahu attacked him, but if there's a new election over his refusal to abandon Lapid, I suspect he'll be attacked by the national religious rabbis, who are unhappy about it already.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, was a fool to humiliate Bennett by making him apologize to Sara.

What could go wrong?

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At 11:51 AM, Blogger Chana said...

No, it's not that Lapid wants to be either a martyr or out of the coalition. It's that he doesn't *need* any of the favors that Netanyahu can use to bribe him with. The only reason for Lapid to accept the aggravation and the pay cut is to accomplish the ideological goals he has set out for himself--equalization of the service burden and the economic encouragement of the middle class.
Anything else is just a waste of his time, money, and effort.

In today's Israel, that's about as idealistic as it gets.


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