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Tuesday, March 05, 2013

Likud splitsville?

Here's an interesting scenario posited by Dr. Aaron Lerner.
Right now the Likud MKs are silent as each of them hopes to be rewarded for their good behavior with a ministerial portfolio or at least a choice Knesset Committee chairmanship.
But after the government forms and the dust settles the situation may be considerably different.
And this even more so in light of discussions about plans to change the Likud system to strip the rank and file members who set the current list of the power to determine who will represent them in the next elections.
So there you are, an MK who invested in developing a reputation as a serious member of the national camp. You aren't a minister and you know that the rules may be changed to prevent you from being re-elected.
And PM Netanyahu pulls a Sharon.
Do you sit quietly, as your reputation goes down the toilet and this while knowing that it will no doubt be you last term in the Knesset?
Hard to predict.
If Likud-Beiteinu stay together action will be more complicated.
But if, as planned, Likud Beitenu splits into Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu after the government is formed, then there are all kinds of possibilities.
A third of the Likud MKs could split off as a faction and join with Bayit Yehudi.
If a majority walks away they can even take the "Likud" name with them.
Would this scenario really play out?

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At 4:05 AM, Blogger Eliana said...

Bennett is a One Man Band, like Livni (when he's not joining himself at the hip with a left wing party leader).

He's done nothing but promote himself along with Lapid while trying to damage the Haredi world since winning his 12 seats.

If there are new elections (which looks quite likely now), I'm not sure he would keep his position in Jewish Home.

Why would other MKs want to join a One Man Band who puts all his loyalty into the leader of another party?


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