Syrian rebels offer Israel the Golan in exchange for a no-fly zone over southern Syria
Syrian rebels have offered to
sell the Golan Heights to Israel in exchange for Israel using the territory to enforce a no-fly zone over southern Syria
.
In a report in Al-Arab
newspaper, quoted by Iranian news agency Fars on Saturday, a member of
the Syrian opposition coalition is quoted as saying the rebels were
willing to sell the Golan Heights to Israel in return for military aid
against President Bashar Assad's army.
"Why shouldn’t we be able to sell the Golan Heights because it is
better than losing Syria and Golan at once," Kamal Al-Labvani told the
Arab newspaper, according to Fars.
The opposition wants to use Israel's air defense systems, including
American-made surface-to-air Patriot missiles, to enforce a no-fly zone
over southern parts of Syria in order to prevent Assad's air force of
bombarding rebel strongholds.
Hmmm. I assume this is the secular elements of the Syrian opposition and not the al-Qaeda backed elements....
Labels: Bashar al-Assad, Free Syrian Army, Golan Heights, Syria no-fly zone, Syrian uprising
Report: Russia to offer Iran S-300, second nuke plant in Bushehr
The Russian daily Kommersant is reporting that Russia has
renewed its offer to sell the S-300 anti-missile system to Iran, three years after canceling the sale due to United Nations sanctions. Russia is also offering to build a second nuclear plant in Bushehr for the Ayatollahs.
According to a source
within the Kremlin, Putin decided to grant an Iranian request to supply
the Islamic Republic with the high-end S-300 air defense system with a
deal estimated at $800 million which will also include coordinating the
construction of an additional nuclear reactor in Bushehr.
According to the report,
Putin has instructed his staff to prepare the agreements so as to
discuss them with Iranian President Hassan Rohani during the two
leaders' scheduled meeting on Friday. The source believes that Teheran
will accept the renewed Russian proposal.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesperson, hinted that the two
agreements were not yet finalized and additional negotiations could be
expected.
This is very curious, because when I heard this story on Israel Radio, they specifically said that Russia offered Iran a less advanced model than what was offered previously. That's what
JPost is reporting as well.
Kommersant reported on Wednesday
that the Russians intend on supplying Iran with a less advanced version
of the S-300 than originally thought.
And this is not just an issue that relates to a potential Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Israeli official believe that the missiles, which have a 200-kilometer
range, would have the capacity to hit planes in northern Israel. It
would create a no-fly zone that would make it impossible for the Israeli
air force to operate along the Syrian and Lebanese border.
Hmmm.
Labels: Iran, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran, Russia, S-300 missile defense system, Syria no-fly zone
Obama acts on Syria: Too little, too late?
After the outraged reaction to President Obama's admission that the Assad regime has been using chemical weapons and that he still hadn't decided what to do about it, President Obama quickly backtracked on Thursday night and decided that he would help the Syrian rebels. But how will he help them? And is it too little too late?
Obama is proposing to provide the rebels with weapons (and there is talk about a no-fly zone, but so far that has not happened). The rebels are asking for
heavy weapons.
The United States has said it would be “responsive to the needs” of the increasingly desperate rebels, but has not given details of what assistance will include.
Initial consignments are expected to consist of small arms and
ammunition, which the rebel Free Syrian Army said on Friday would be
largely “meaningless”.
...
U.S. officials are expected to meet with Gen. Salim Idriss,
head of the rebel Supreme Military Council, over the next two days to
discuss details of military assistance that Washington can provide.
Rebel leaders said Idriss will urge the U.S. interlocutors to offer up a
wide range of support.
“We welcome the decision, but it is a
late step. And if they send small arms, how can small arms make a
difference?” said Louay al-Mokdad, political and media coordinator for
the Free Syria Army. “They should help us with real weapons, antitank
and antiaircraft, and with armored vehicles, training and a no-fly
zone.”
The White House has said it has not made any decision to
pursue a no-fly zone, which would involve targeted airstrikes in order
to remove air defenses, and could raise concerns of a mission creep.
Charles Lister, an analyst at IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency
Center, said that while a no-fly zone near the Jordanian border might be
a “feasible eventuality” given the strong presence of moderate rebel
groups in the area, sending anti-aircraft weapons to the rebels “still
appears unlikely”.
Mokdad said it is essential that the United States “move fast” if it wants to have an impact on the trajectory of the 25-month-old conflict, which according to a new United Nations report so far has resulted in nearly 93,000 confirmed deaths.
But are weapons going to help at this point? Let's call it
doubtful.
Now that the moment for American action has come, it is very late in the
day. The war in Syria is not just a humanitarian catastrophe—the U.N.
said on Thursday that the death toll had reached ninety-three thousand.
Worse, the Assad régime appears, after months of stalemate, to have
gained the upper hand. This is almost certainly due to a large-scale
intervention by Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group, which has sent as
many as two thousand fighters into Syria to save Assad. Hezbollah
fighters were decisive in the pro-Assad force’s recent recapture of the
city of Qusayr, which, in turn, is central to Hezbollah’s existence.
Qusayr sits on the main road leading into Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley,
Hezbollah’s stronghold, and serves as the main conduit for Iranian arms
and missiles that have made Hezbollah the formidable armed group that it
is. Hezbollah’s intervention has been accompanied by a massive,
ceaseless airlift from the Iranian government, which regards Assad as
its closest friend in the Arab world.
Just look at the map: Syria and Lebanon form part of the so-called
“Shiite axis’’ that the Iranian régime has helped build and sustain over
many years. Iran is majority Shiite, Hezbollah is almost entirely
Shiite, and the Assad régime is dominated by Alawites, a Shiite sect
that fears a genocide if they are defeated. Iran doesn’t want to lose
that axis—not with the West breathing down its neck about its nuclear
ambitions. And at every step, Assad has had the assistance of the
Russian government of Vladimir Putin, who has been prepared to veto any
attempt by the U.N. Security Council to approve an armed intervention.
What happens now? A lot depends on the details—on exactly what the White
House proposes to do. The President can choose from a range of options,
none of which would include putting American troops on the ground: a
no-fly zone; air and missile strikes against Assad’s runways and
airplanes; arms for the rebels. It appears that Obama has decided to
take at least the modest step of sending small arms and ammunition to
the rebels. For more than two years, the President has concluded that
staying out of Syria is the best course. He appears to be changing his
mind. The question now may be whether it’s too late.
Small arms aren't going to change this war. Heavy arms may not either. A no-fly zone sounds like it needs to be on the Lebanese border to the Bekaa to be effective - and no one is now talking about doing that. Has Obama missed the boat? It wouldn't be the first time.
Shabbat Shalom everyone.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Bashar al-Assad, Bekaa Valley, Free Syrian Army, Hezbullah, Lebanon, Nusra Front, Russia, Syria, Syria no-fly zone, Syrian uprising, Vladimir Putin
Obama trying to cut Israel off at the pass?
After months of doing nothing, President Hussein Obama is suddenly having discussions with his Best Friend Forever, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, about creating a
no-fly zone over Syria (Hat Tip:
Dan F).
Asked about options such as imposing a no-fly zone over rebel-held territory, Clinton said these were possibilities she and Davutoglu had agreed "need greater in-depth analysis", while indicating that no decisions were necessarily imminent.
"It is one thing to talk about all kinds of potential actions, but you cannot make reasoned decisions without doing intense analysis and operational planning," she said.
Though any intervention appears to be a distant prospect, her remarks were nevertheless the closest Washington has come to suggesting direct military action in Syria.
No-fly zones imposed by NATO and Arab allies helped Libyan rebels overthrow Muammar Gaddafi last year. Until recently, the West had shunned the idea of repeating any Libya-style action.
If you look at a map of Syria, you see another small benefit that Obama and Erdogan might reap from imposing a no-fly zone:
Iran is the country that borders Iraq and Turkey. What if Israel planned to fly over Syria to attack Iran (which would be most of the distance that it would have to traverse over Arab countries on the way to attacking Iran)? A no-fly zone would mean that the US and Turkey might come after those Israeli planes (and Turkey almost certainly would). At the very least, it would require that Israel coordinate an attack with the United States, something that Obama would almost certainly not allow....
Hmmm.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Campaign 2012, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria no-fly zone, Turkey
Russia warns NATO to stay out of Syria
Based on a report in Britain's
Sunday Times (which is behind a paywall), YNet reports that Russian technicians were behind Syria shooting down a Turkish F-4 Phantom last week as a
warning to NATO to stay out of Syria's civil war.
Russian technicians played a key part in the interception and shooting down of a Turkish warplane by Syria’s anti-aircraft defenses 10 days ago, Britain's Sunday Times reported Sunday. Diplomatic sources in the Middle East told the paper that destroying the F-4E Phantom II was a split-second decision intended as a warning to NATO to stay out of Syria’s civil war.
A source in Israel's Air Force was quoted as saying “we would not be surprised if these Russian experts, if they didn’t push the button, at least were beside the Syrian officers who did it."
...
“It definitely has Russian fingerprints on it,” a diplomat told the Sunday Times. He summarized the Russian message: “Syria is not Libya and any attempt to impose a ‘no fly zone’ over Syria will face one of the most formidable air defenses on Earth and will cost any attacker dearly.”
Meanwhile, the fairytale President of the United States is afraid to confront the Russians.
An international conference held in Geneva Saturday accepted a UN-brokered peace plan for Syria, but saw Russia and China still supporting President Bashar Assad.
The US was forced to back away from demands that Assad be excluded, hoping the concession would encourage Russia to put greater pressure on its longtime ally to end the violent crackdown that the opposition says has claimed over 14,000 lives.
Haaretz adds (Hat Tip:
Perlman M):
The unarmed reconnaissance jet had briefly entered Syrian airspace on June 22 as it approached land after patrolling the eastern Mediterranean, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc said, but was warned by Turkish radar controllers and immediately left and turned again out to sea.
It then made another approach to land when it was shot down 13 miles off the coast in international airspace, he said, out of the reach of Syria's anti-aircraft guns.
"According to the data in our hands, it points to our plane being shot by a laser or heat-guided surface-to-air missile. The fact our plane was not given an early radar warning, suggests it was not a radar-guided missile," said Arinc.
Hmmm. If this is correct, it's much more important than the exact location of the plane when it was shot down. Aren't you glad Obama pressed that reset button with the Russians?
Labels: anti-aircraft missiles, Barack Hussein Obama, Russia, Syria, Syria no-fly zone, Syrian air space, Turkey
Who wants a Syrian no fly zone?
Syrian opposition groups are pushing for the West to carve out a
no-fly zone over Syria, arguing that they can reach Bashar al-Assad's palace if there is a no-fly zone in place.
“Our operations are increasing and we will reach the presidential palace,” As’ad said. “The regime is going to fall. It may take longer if there is no international foreign assistance, but it’s not going to stay. It’s finished.”
The group, using rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns, this week assaulted a base near the Syrian capital Damascus linked to air force intelligence, said Ammar al-Wawi, spokesman of the 10-member military council that heads the FSA. The Free Syrian Army also destroyed an armored personnel carrier at a base used by the intelligence agency in the city of Aleppo, he said. Air force intelligence has helped the government put down the protests.
Though no country has yet offered help to the Free Syrian Army, the group “welcomes all assistance,” said As’ad, 50. He said he has a force of more than 25,000 who have been launching targeted attacks against security and intelligence units of the Assad government.
Hmmm.
Labels: Bashar al-Assad, Syria no-fly zone, Syrian uprising
