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Sunday, August 24, 2014

Rockets fired overnight from Syria, Lebanon

Five rockets were shot into the Golan Heights overnight after a rocket was shot from Lebanon into the Galilee during the night.
Five rockets were fired from Syria overnight Saturday and exploded near communities in the Golan Heights.
The IDF said that there were no physical injuries in the attacks.
Three sirens were heard in local communities before the rockets exploded. One power line sustained damage and residents reported power outages.
In July, a rocket was fired from Syria but, according to the IDF Spokesperson, it exploded on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights and did not hit Israeli territory.
That incident came a few days a mortar shell from Syria was fired towards the Israeli side of the Golan Heights and exploded near the Druze village of Mas’ade.
And earlier....
The attack comes several hours after a rocket was fired from Lebanon and struck the Upper Galilee.
No physical injuries or damage were reported.
Following the attack, Israel fired mortar shells towards the source of the fire in southern Lebanon.
JPost adds:
The projectile strike from Syria came hours after a separate incident on Saturday night in which a rocket fired from Lebanon hit a building in an open area in the Upper Galilee.

Two children were lightly injured by shrapnel and four people were suffering from shock as a result of the attack.

The news agency NNA, citing its correspondent in Tire, said the rockets were fired towards Israel and that the Lebanese army had encircled the suspected launch area.

No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.
Just one question to those of you reading from abroad: Would you want to live like this? Well, we don't either. And this has nothing to do with borders. It has to do with our existence.

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Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Al-Jazeera: Syrian army can learn a lot about morality from the IDF

Oh my....

In this six-month old video, Al Jazeera Arabic argues about humane treatment of demonstrators, argues that Israel and France are more humane and popular in Syria than the various sunni fighters there.

Let's go to the videotape.



JPost adds:
The conversation on the news show "The Opposite Direction" hosted by Faisal al-Qassem centered around Syrian President Bashar Assad's military tactics in the ongoing Syrian civil war. Along with the Israeli army, al-Qassem also praised the moral character of the French military.

"Why don't they learn from the Israeli army, which tries, through great efforts, to avoid shelling areas populated by civilians in Lebanon and Palestine?

"Didn't Hezbollah take shelter in areas populated by civilians because it knows that the Israeli air force doesn't bomb these areas? Why doesn't the Syrian army respect the premises of universities, schools or inhabited neighborhoods?"

"Didn't they [the Syrian Army] ever hear about principles and morals of urban warfare? Didn't the Syrian army target many civilian areas despite the fact that no fighters were present there?" al-Qassem asked.  

"The Israeli army, if it wanted to break up a demonstration, would have used water cannons or rubber bullets, not rockets or explosive barrels as happens in Aleppo today. 

"I want to ask you on one important point. ... It's a shame to compare the National Syrian Army with the French during the French occupation, or the Israeli army. Shame!" the moderator added. 
Of course, the real question is why Hezbullah - and every Arab fighting force - choose to take shelter among civilians. The fact that they also go after civilians is simply beyond the pale in the post-Geneva convention era. 

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Sunday, June 22, 2014

'Brave' Syrian warriors murder 13-year old 'Israeli Arab'

'Brave' Syrian soldiers targeted an Israeli truck in the Golan Heights on Sunday - deliberately according to the IDF - killing a 13-year old 'Israeli Arab' boy and critically wounding his father.
A 13-year-old boy was killed and two other people were injured in the Golan Heights Sunday in cross-border fire from inside Syria that hit a civilian vehicle carrying out routine maintenance work for the Defense Ministry.
IDF tanks immediately returned fire at Syrian army positions in response to what an IDF source said appeared to be a deliberate attack on the truck.
One of those injured in the attack was in serious condition, while the other suffered light injuries.
The teenage boy killed in the attack, Muhammad Karaka from Arraba in the lower Galilee, had been accompanying his father, a contract worker who was carrying out work at the border for the Defense Ministry.
Following the attack, an army source said it found what appeared to be a hole in the frontier fence. Army sources said they did not yet know whether the attack took the form of a shell, or another type of weapon.
The latest evaluation was that the truck was hit by an anti-tank missile. 
"We know that the attack was carried out from an area under the control of Syrian rebels, but we're not at all sure that this was a Syrian rebel attack," said a source.
"It seems this attack was the result of direct fire [on the truck]," the source said.
Assad and his generals may figure that attacking Israel would be popular and may distract his population from the bloodbath his army is perpetrating. 

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Friday, April 18, 2014

Syrian jets fly along Israeli border, IAF scrambled

Syrian war jets bombed a 'refugee camp' in Quneitra on the Golan Heights, coming close enough to the Israeli border on Friday afternoon to cause IAF jets to be scrambled in response.
The attacks on Quneitra, the only crossing along the Israeli-Syrian border in the Golan Heights, raised concerns in Israel, reports Channel 10.
In response, the IDF stepped up preparations along the border, and sent out IAF planes to provide an air presence in the area and deter any encroachments on Israeli sovereign airspace.
The sites struck by Syria include a refugee camp in the Daraa region of southern Syria, which was being built by rebel forces opposing Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime.
Arabic media sources have reported that Assad's regime views the rebel refugee camp as a "declaration of local independence," leading to the strike to destroy the site.
The Quneitra crossing was recaptured by Syrian army forces last June after briefly falling into opposition hands.
I don't expect Assad to try anything on us right now, but he needs to be reminded of that once in a while. 

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Sunday, February 02, 2014

What Syria needs now

But they won't get one. It's just Muslims killing Muslims, so no one cares.

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Sunday, December 29, 2013

Who will make the delivery?

'Moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen has ordered the immediate delivery of emergency food supplies to the besieged 'Palestinian refugee' in Yarmouk, Syria (Hat Tip: IMRA).
President Mahmoud Abbas ordered Saturday dispatch of immediate food supplies to Yarmouk refugee camp in Syria due to the difficult situation the camp is going through.

Abbas ordered Palestine’s ambassador to Syria and other official parties to immediately act to facilitate entry of these supplies.
The president’s decision came following reports that five Palestinian refugees have died of hunger in the besieged camp.
Yarmouk has been under siege by the Syrian army for several months. No one has been allowed in or out of the camp since then, including the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, UNRWA, which is responsible for all Palestinian refugee camps in the region.
...
UNRWA Commissioner General Filippo Grandi said... that the situation has progressively deteriorated since the camp, the largest refugee camp in Syria, was engulfed in the Syria conflict a year ago and that 20,000 Palestinians remain trapped inside it.
“Although very alarming reports of hardship and hunger have continued to multiply, since September 2013 we have been unable to enter the area to deliver desperately needed relief supplies,” he said.
Who does Abu Bluff think is going to deliver these supplies? The IDF?

But worse, Abu Bluff is actually the cause of this situation. Israel offered to allow all of the 'Palestinians' in this 'refugee camp' re-settle in Judea and Samaria, provided that they waive any 'right of return' they might otherwise be entitled to receive. Abu Bluff turned down the offer a year ago without even asking the potential beneficiaries if it was of interest to them.

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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

The Syrian Third way

A Syrian opposition activist claims to represent secular liberal Syrians who wish to live in peace with Israel.
Although Muhammad is in Europe, he says he visits the opposition-held areas in Syria “all the time.” He lived there until 2012 and took part in the early stages of the opposition in 2011. He claims he has good connections in Syria in order to draw in new members to a Syrian political party, promoting liberal democracy and the separation of religion and state. He believes in a third way – “not the Muslim Brotherhood and not president Bashar Assad as until now there has not been another way.”
Asked about funding for those who hold such views, Muhammad said liberal Syrians have their own private sponsors and support from Syria’s business community.
He said an ideal party should be made up of Syrians representing all religions and ethnic groups there, including Christians, Druse, Kurds and Alawites (religion of Assad and his most loyal followers). “We don’t want the dreams of pan-Arab nationalism or partition of the country,” he said.
The problem with the strategy of the EU and the US is that they are not interfering enough to shape events, according to Muhammad. The Muslim Brotherhood is organized, so the US works with them, he opined. “This is a dangerous strategy,” he stated, adding that countries such as Egypt and Syria do not want religion to govern people’s lives. “People are religious, but they don’t want it to be involved in politics,” he asserted.
However, he believes that in any post-Assad landscape, the Islamists should be given a chance to participate in the democratic process, which would be better than having them go underground. “I was living in Syria, and there were not all these radicals for the first year and a half” of the protests, Muhammad claimed. “All the activists were liberal and were trying to be peaceful.”
The regime became more brutal, and the people turned to radical Islamic groups for protection; in this way, the Islamists gained more support, he observed.
In other words, had the West intervened on the rebels' side in the first 12-18 months of the war, they would have been helping a secular opposition which could have won.

But before you get your hopes up, consider this.
Asked about his vision for future Syrian-Israel relations, he responded that change cannot happen quickly, as people have been taught for a long time at school that Israelis are the enemy and are trying to kill Syrians, so Syrians must kill them. However, aiding injured Syrians in Israeli hospitals and various other Israeli human-rights gestures were having a positive effect, raising doubts in the minds of Syrians about what they had been led to believe.
“All this is making people wonder, when they see the killing from their own regime and see the Israeli community treating the wounded. I am talking to a lot of people, and they are thinking: Who is the enemy now?” he exclaimed.
In particular, he mentioned recent moves by the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC to support a US attack on Syria, saying this has left a positive impression with many Syrians.
“I know lots of Israelis. I went to speak at synagogues – even right-wing orthodox ones, and people want to hear,” said Muhammad.
Regarding peace with Syria post-Assad, he said that the main issue is the Golan Heights. “We want direct talks with Israel and to make a peace deal and normalize relations."
“Israel has technology, and Syria can be an industrial supplier,” he said. He believes a majority of Israelis would support giving up the Golan for peace. “There cannot be peace without the Golan,” he declared. As for Israel’s security risks, he responded that in life, there are never any guarantees.
 I can't see most Israelis agreeing to that. I wouldn't. Most Israelis are grateful these days that we didn't give up the Heights in the late '90's.

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Sunday, September 08, 2013

Oh my: US may seek UN Security Council vote on Syria

The United States has not decided whether to go to the UN Security Council for approval to attack Syria.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Sunday the United States did not rule out the possibility of returning to the United Nations Security Council to secure a resolution on Syria once U.N. inspectors complete their report.
Speaking at a news conference in Paris with his Qatari counterpart Khaled al-Attiya, Kerry said President Barack Obama had yet to make a decision on the issue.
Whatever the decision is about Syria, this is the wrong decision. There is no way Russia or China are going to consent to any kind of action on Syria, and we have seen that repeatedly over the last two years. Moreover, Obama seems determined to weaken the United States in every way possible.  Going to the UN will continue to lead to the end of the United States as a great power.

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Video of chemical weapons attack in Syria shown to Senate Intelligence Committee

Here's a video that CNN reports was shown to the Senate Intelligence Committee in a bid to gain approval for an American attack on Bashar al-Assad's troops.

Let's go to the videotape. Viewer and parental discretion advised.



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Syrian warplanes test British air defenses, flee

Two Syrian warplanes tested British air defenses at the Akrotiri air base in Cyprus on Monday, but turned around and fled when British Typhoon warplanes were scrambled in response.
The dramatic confrontation came after President Bashar al-Assad’s air chiefs sent two Russian-made Sukhoi Su-24s to probe our air defences.
The Syrian bombers refused to respond to repeated attempts by the control tower at the UK’s Akrotiri air base to contact them.
RAF pilots flying the world’s most advanced combat jet were scrambled before the Sukhois could enter our 14-mile air exclusion zone.
The Typhoons – which can scream from runway standstill to seven miles high in 90 seconds – soared into the sky to make visual contact with the Syrian pilots.
But the moment the Syrians ­spotted our planes on their radar they high-tailed for home.
If the bombers had pressed on into our exclusion zone they would have been shot down, military experts said last night.
...

A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: “The MoD can confirm that Typhoon air defence aircraft operated from RAF Akrotiri on Monday to investigate unidentified aircraft to the east of Cyprus.
“The aircraft were flying legally in international airspace and no ­intercept was required.”
The UK air base at Akrotiri is packed with US and French ­warplanes ready to strike Syria when President Obama gives the go-ahead.
A military source told the Sunday People: “Recent intelligence reports have warned of an attack
on Akrotiri.
“The RAF Typhoons were launched after sensitive airborne early-warning radar picked up the ‘contacts’ flying low and fast.” The British typhoons are part of a squadron of six sent to Cyprus to guard our bases there as the Americans prepare for an attack.
A Navy Type 45 anti-aircraft ­destroyer is also sitting off Cyprus to provide early warning of Syrian fighters or missiles launched against the island.
Two French Navy Atlantique spy planes have also been moved to RAF Akrotiri.
Hmmm.

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Tuesday, September 03, 2013

There wasn't a moderate Syrian opposition before there was one

On Monday, I blogged a report from the Wall Street Journal that claimed that not all of the Syrian rebel troops are Islamists, and that the non-Islamists control substantial territory. Daniel Greenfield reports that the author of the Wall Street Journal report - Elizabeth O'Bagy - has been the source for reports in the past that claim that all the significant Syrian rebel factions are Islamist.
Even the New York Times long ago conceded that this was not the case, writing, “Nowhere in rebel-controlled Syria is there a secular fighting force to speak of.”
And the Times quoted none other than Elizabeth O’Bagy.
When the armed rebellion began, defectors from the government’s staunchly secular army formed the vanguard. The rebel movement has since grown to include fighters with a wide range of views, including Qaeda-aligned jihadis seeking to establish an Islamic emirate, political Islamists inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood and others who want an Islamic-influenced legal code like that found in many Arab states.
“My sense is that there are no seculars,” said Elizabeth O’Bagy, of the Institute for the Study of War, who has made numerous trips to Syria in recent months to interview rebel commanders.
So now Elizabeth sets out to make the opposite argument.
Anyone who reads the paper or watches the news has been led to believe that a once peaceful, pro-democracy opposition has transformed over the past two years into a mob of violent extremists dominated by al Qaeda
... 
The implication here is that the Free Syrian Army’s brigades are not Islamist. But that clearly isn’t true. And the evidence of that comes from Mrs. O’Bagy.
Although led by an army defector, Gen. Salim Idris, the council has taken in the leaders of many overtly Islamist battalions. One called the Syrian Liberation Front has been integrated nearly wholesale into the council; many of its members coordinate closely with the Syrian Islamic Front, a group that includes the extremist Ahrar al-Sham, according to a recent report by Ms. O’Bagy, of the Institute for the Study of War.
But now she says…
While traveling with some of these Free Syrian Army battalions, I’ve watched them defend Alawi and Christian villages from government forces and extremist groups.
Since when is the Syrian military attacking Alawi or Christian villages? The assertion makes no sense. Assad is Alawi and Syrian Christians have been ethnically cleansed by Syrian rebels, not government troops.
Read the whole thing

The picture at the top of this post is Salim Idris, the leader of the Free Syrian Army. He's clearly not a whole lot nicer than Assad.

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Friday, August 30, 2013

Thousands of Syrians stranded trying to escape to Jordan, blame US and Europe

Thousands of Syrians from the areas attacked with chemical weapons are trying to make their way south to Jordan. But the Syrian air force has been bombing the area, preventing these refugees from reaching the border area.
Refugees say they have been marooned by an ongoing Syrian bombing campaign, unable either to cross into Jordan or return to their homes. They say they have moved into abandoned schoolhouses, disused bakeries and demolished buildings in towns and villages across the south amid near-constant air raids as they await a chance to leave.
“We have no money, no food, no home and now nowhere left to go,” said Mohammed al- Saeed, who has been living in a makeshift shelter in the border town of Tal Shihab with his family of five since fleeing his home town of Ghouta Sharqiyyeh, or Eastern Ghouta, five days ago. “Sometimes I believe we would be better off dead.”
Local residents say the influx from Ghouta has triggered a humanitarian crisis, with municipalities running low on staples such as flour and cooking oil and unable to care for people allegedly suffering from trauma and gas poisoning.
“We are trying to host our brothers and sisters from the Damascus countryside as best we can, but we cannot even feed them, let alone treat them,” said Ahmed al-Saad, an activist with the Local Coordination Committees opposition network in Tal Shihab, which has reportedly taken in 5,000 refugees in the past week.
In the rebel-held town, residents and activists say they have set up a hospital in a local mosque but are able to offer only expired aspirin tablets and herbal remedies to men, women and children exhibiting signs of gas poisoning.
...
News of impending Western-led airstrikes against the Syrian government offered little solace to the Ghouta survivors, many of whom hold the United States and European countries responsible for Syria’s use of chemical weapons and their current plight.
“For two years, the world has watched in silence as Bashar killed 200,000 of our children,” said Um Ahmed al-Dimashqi, referring to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Dimashqi, who arrived in Tal Shihab on Monday, said her son was killed in Ghouta. “Why did my son have to be number 200,001 for the world to take notice?” she said.

Here's video of UN chemical weapons inspectors at work taking soil samples in an area where there was a chemical weapons attack.

Let's go to the videotape.



What could go wrong?

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Wednesday, August 28, 2013

US tells Assad he can relax

The Obama administration sent a message to Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday. They told him that the American action against Syria, which could happen as soon as Thursday, won't last long and won't do a whole lot of damage (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).
An American military attack on Syria could begin as early as Thursday and will involve three days of missile strikes, according to "senior U.S. officials" talking to NBC News. The Washington Post has the bombing at "no more than two days," though long-range bombers could "possibly" join the missiles. "Factors weighing into the timing of any action include a desire to get it done before the president leaves for Russia next week," reports CNN, citing a "senior administration official."
The New York Times, quoting a Pentagon official, adds that "the initial target list has fewer than 50 sites, including air bases where Syria's Russian-made attack helicopters are deployed." The Times adds that "like several other military officials contacted for this report, the official agreed to discuss planning options only on condition of anonymity."
Thus do the legal and moral requirements of secret military operations lose out in this Administration to the imperatives of in-the-know spin and political gestures. 
...
"I want to make clear that the options that we are considering are not about regime change," White House spokesman Jay Carney said Tuesday. Translation: We're not coming for you, Bashar, so don't worry. And by the way, you might want to fly those attack choppers off base, at least until next week.
So what is the purpose of a U.S. attack? Mr. Carney elaborated that it's "about responding to [a] clear violation of an international standard that prohibits the use of chemical weapons." He added that the U.S. had a national security interest that Assad's use of chemical weapons "not go unanswered." This is another way of saying that the attacks are primarily about making a political statement, and vindicating President Obama's ill-considered promise of "consequences," rather than materially degrading Assad's ability to continue to wage war against his own people.
Why bother? Assad is already clearing his military installations around Damascus.
Army units stationed near the capital have confiscated several trailer trucks, apparently to transport heavy weaponry to alternative locations, though no significant movement of military hardware has been reported, possibly due to heavy fighting near major highways, one of the sources added.
Among the buildings that have been partially evacuated are the General Staff Command Building on Umayyad Square, the nearby airforce command and the security compounds in the Western Kfar Souseh districts, residents of the area and a Free Syrian Army rebel source said.
Syrian military authorities do not discuss troop movements publicly, and no government spokesman was available for comment.
...
Brigadier General Mustafa al-Sheikh, a senior military defector, said from an undisclosed location in Syria that based on Free Syrian Army intelligence gatherings, the general staff command had been moved to an alternative compound in the foothills of the Anti-Lebanon Mountains north of Damascus.
"Various commands are being moved to schools and underground bunkers. But I am not sure it is going to do much good for the regime," Sheikh said.
Another resident who lives at the foothills of Qasioun, the mountain in the middle of the city in which elite praetorian guard units are based, said the boom of artillery, usually heard daily form the 105th battalion of the Republican Guards, had fallen silent on Wednesday.
"They have been lots of army trucks descending from Qasioun. It seems they have evacuated the 105 battalion headquarters," the resident said.
Activists in east Damascus said barracks and housing compounds for the Republican Guards and Fourth Division near the suburbs of Somariya and Mouadamiya had been evacuated and troops and their families had gone into the city.
And you thought we were wimpy with all our warning leaflets and door knocks....

Russia has evacuated dozens of its nationals to Moscow

What could go wrong?

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How the US found out Assad was using chemical weapons

For those of you who keep suggesting that maybe it was the rebels in Syria who used the chemical weapons... it wasn't (and that's not to say that they wouldn't if they had them) (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).
Last Wednesday, in the hours after a horrific chemical attack east of Damascus, an official at the Syrian Ministry of Defense exchanged panicked phone calls with a leader of a chemical weapons unit, demanding answers for a nerve agent strike that killed more than 1,000 people. Those conversations were overheard by U.S. intelligence services, The Cable has learned. And that is the major reason why American officials now say they're certain that the attacks were the work of the Bashar al-Assad regime -- and why the U.S. military is likely to attack that regime in a matter of days.
But what the Americans don't know is who gave the orders.
But the intercept raises questions about culpability for the chemical massacre, even as it answers others: Was the attack on Aug. 21 the work of a Syrian officer overstepping his bounds? Or was the strike explicitly directed by senior members of the Assad regime? "It's unclear where control lies," one U.S. intelligence official told The Cable. "Is there just some sort of general blessing to use these things? Or are there explicit orders for each attack?" 
Nor are U.S. analysts sure of the Syrian military's rationale for launching the strike -- if it had a rationale at all. Perhaps it was a lone general putting a long-standing battle plan in motion; perhaps it was a miscalculation by the Assad government. Whatever the reason, the attack has triggered worldwide outrage, and put the Obama administration on the brink of launching a strike of its own in Syria. "We don't know exactly why it happened," the intelligence official added. "We just know it was pretty fucking stupid."
Here's the thing: They belonged to the regime and they were used. That makes the regime responsible. Again, I have little doubt that the Islamist rebels also would have used them if they had the opportunity. But they didn't.

Read the whole thing

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Israel's security cabinet approves limited reservist call-up

The Israeli government keeps telling us that we should go about our daily business, and that they don't expect Bashar al-Assad to attack us, but they're preparing all the same. The security cabinet has approved a limited call-up of reservists, which is usually a sign that they expect something to happen.
Security sources would not specify how many reservists were to be called up, or to which units, though some reservists attached to the Home-Front command were expected to be among those called up.
In addition, the sources said that the government approved the deployment of advanced anti-missile batteries in the north.
The security cabinet was briefed by Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz, as well as other senior defense officials.
The information presented at the meeting indicated a "low probability" that Syrian President Bashar Assad would respond to US military action by striking Israel. Nevertheless, the sources said, Israel was preparing for any eventuality, which explained the limited reserve call-ups.
Following the security cabinet meeting, the second urgent security consultation in as many days, Netanyahu issued a statement Wednesday saying Israelis need not alter their daily routine.
"The IDF is ready to defend against any threat and prepared to respond severely against any attempt to harm Israeli citizens," he said.
I can tell you that I was in town today, and saw someone with a stroller with about half a dozen gas masks piled on it. Someone else stopped them and asked them where they got it. The answer was a major street in a completely different part of town. Yes, there is a run on gas masks. Glad we got ours a long time ago.

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Report: Assad bombs Damascus with chem weapons again

Daring the world to stop him, reports indicate that forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have once again used chemical weapons against his opponents.
Meanwhile, reports emerged from Al Jazeera that Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime forces bombed the Jobar neighborhood in eastern Damascus with toxic chemicals in a mortar attack on Wednesday.
The Syrian Support Group tweeted the use of poisonous gases on Free Syrian Army Soldiers, stating Assad's forces used chemical mortar shells on Tuesday against his citizens.
Syrian rebels said the attack was carried out near the northeastern Damascus suburb where a chemical weapons strike last Wednesday killed hundreds.
Activists added that 12 people were killed and fifty others injured in a bombing targeting the countryside of Aleppo, Al Jazeera reported. According to the report, Assad's forces dropped phosphorus bombs and napalm on civilians in rural Aleppo on Monday.
Videos made ​​by activists showed injuries from burns and people suffering from breathing difficulties. The Syrian Center for Information reported that all the victims are students.
Let's go to the videotape.



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Signs of coming US strike on Syria abound

With a US attack on Syria rumored to be happening as soon as Thursday, Amos Harel reports that there are many signs that an attack is coming soon. And it will be over in the blink of an eyelash.
An American strike, meant to punish and deter, is seemingly only days away. The United States will have to act soon since any further delay will be embarrassing to the Obama administration after a pattern of indecisiveness in the face of crises in the Arab world in general, and Syria in particular. Since the United States is not planning a lengthy military operation but momentary and powerful strike, and assuming the plans have been ready for a long while, U.S. forces can deploy as soon as a decision is made. Cruise missile-carrying warships are already stationed in the Mediterranean, not too far from the Syrian shores, and U.S. fighter jets are likewise in attack range.
The Obama administration will carry out a strike because this time, after declaring chemical weapons a "red line," the president's hands are tied. The United States dragged it feet for 6 weeks following the chemical attack in the village of Khan al-Assal near Aleppo in March, before Israel released its intelligence findings and Washington was forced to admit the facts . This time around it took the United States less than a week to reach an unequivocal conclusion. Still, the apparent decision to carry out a strike against Assad as punishment for the massacre of civilians does not mean that the it will act to topple the regime. The United States has learned painful lessons from orchestrating regime changes in Iraq and Afghanistan (and to a lesser extent in Libya). American public opinion will no longer tolerate the idea of prolonged military presence with boots on the ground, much less clips of U.S. soldiers escorting Arab children to school under mortar fire and sniper shots. From Washington to the Midwest, the Middle East is now viewed as a region plagued by disaster, a entanglement to be avoided.
Most likely, the U.S. will do the bare minimum and attack but then swiftly disengage. Such an approach dictates a particular set of targets: Not symbols of the regime but strictly military targets such as missile bases, anti-aircraft batteries and perhaps chemical weapons sites.
Western intelligence agencies know the locations of at least 90 percent of the Syrian chemical weapons bases. According to various reports, the components are stored separately and assembled when an order is given – meaning that a strike won't trigger a chemical reaction.
Assad, it seems, would be able to withstand such an attack and remain on his feet. It wouldn't stop him from continuing his onslaught on the rebel forces, who are currently preoccupied by infighting. An American strike, aside from countering criticism that Washington is not true to its word, might also serve, to a certain extent, as a deterrent against future chemical weapons use.
Intervention might also galvanize the opposition groups. Still, to turn the tide in the civil war, the United States would have to resort to a prolonged air strike, which is the last thing the Americans want, especially since there is no one way to know that Assad's replacement will be any better than the murderous tyrant himself.
Washington is giving up the element of surprise. Max Fisher explains why.
If his goal were to fully enter the Syrian civil war and decisively end it then, yes, secrecy would be the way to go. But the administration has been very clear that it has a much more modest goal: to punish Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad for his suspected use of chemical weapons so that he, and future military leaders, won’t do it again.
What’s about to happen, if the United States and allies do go through with the strikes, is less of a war and more of a ritual. This isn’t about defeating Assad, it’s about punishing him. And that calls for being really precise about how much punishment the U.S. imposes.
If the U.S. military just fired off a bunch of missiles, it would probably cause more civilian causalities than with its current approach and the amount of damage it caused would be tougher to predict. Maybe it causes less damage than the United States wants and then Assad is not sufficiently deterred from future chemical weapons use. Maybe it causes more damage and then Assad might feel compelled to respond, perhaps by striking Israel, and that’s how things spiral out of control.
No, what the Obama administration appears to want is a limited, finite series of strikes that will be carefully calibrated to send a message and cause the just-right amount of pain. It wants to set Assad back but it doesn’t want to cause death and mayhem. So the most likely option is probably to destroy a bunch of government or military infrastructure – much of which will probably be empty.
But what if Assad isn't deterred? What could go wrong? 

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Tuesday, August 27, 2013

What will Asma do? Assad unlikely to attack Israel in response to US strike

The military assessment here in Israel is that in the face of an increasingly likely US attack on Syria, Bashar al-Assad will not turn his guns to Israel.
Any US military step will probably serve as a “slap” to the Syrian regime, but won’t go as far as toppling President Bashar Assad from power.
Hence, it would be an act of self-destruction on Assad’s part to drag Israel into the conflict, for any direct Syrian retribution against Israel would endanger the very existence of the embattled regime in Damascus.
With Assad in control of around 40 percent of Syrian territory, dragging Israel into the Syrian civil war would tip the scales in the rebels favor, and would be an act of madness on the part of the Syrian dictator.
Ultimately, the last thing Assad needs at this juncture is to provoke an Israeli response against him, and so long as he is guided by a self-preservation instinct, it is reasonable to assess that he will not attack Israel after a US strike.
Well, maybe. Unless Assad, egged on by Iran, decides that he can reunify his country by attacking the common enemy of the regime and the rebels: Israel. And it doesn't speak to the question of what Syria's real dictator might decide to tell Bashar to do.

The assessment that Bashar will not attack us may be for domestic consumption to avoid panic in Israel. Gas mask demand has jumped 400% here since Assad attacked his own people with chemical weapons last Wednesday.

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Monday, August 26, 2013

Of course: Israel is to blame for civil war in Syria says....

One thing that has most Israelis breathing a sigh of relief these days is the fact that Ehud Barak did not succeed in giving Syria the Golan Heights in the late 1990's. It was close. The dispute came down to a narrow strip of land on the eastern side of the Kinneret, which prevented the deal from happening.

But not all Israelis are happy that the deal didn't happen. Take, for instance, uber-Leftist columnist Shimon Shiffer of Yedioth Aharonoth. Please, take him....

Despite all of what has been described above, there are some wise Israelis who have already decided that Israel is the culprit. One of them is Yedioth Ahronoth analyst Shimon Shiffer, whose column on Sunday defended U.S. President Barack Obama's wavering on Syria and continued deliberations on the matter. Towards the end of the column, Shiffer inserted a passage that matches the rhetoric of those advocating territorial concessions, the same people who have until recently wanted Israel to hand the Golan Heights over to the Assad family, who would in turn provide for Israel's security needs.

"I dare to assume," Shiffer wrote, "that had the two parties [Israel and Syria] reached an accord, we would not have witnessed this civil war, whose outcome is anyone's guess." Eureka! The Syrian conflict is Israel's fault.

Why didn't we pursue the path Shiffer and his friends had advocated? Why didn't we let the Golan Heights come under the control of the Assad family and forsake our security? Had a deal been signed with Assad, the bloody encounters would have take place right above the Sea of Galilee; no Israeli/Jewish community would have been safe. Pro-Syrian sleeper cells would become active, too. This is all just common sense.
But the Left's orthodoxy is still wedded to the dogma that the conflict with our enemies is mainly about territory. There are still many among us who accept this folly; they are awarded airtime and column inches. Jews have always had a knack for being the devil's advocate.
Read the rest of Dror Eydar's column here

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UN chemical inspectors suspend Syria mission after sniper attack

United Nations chemical weapons inspectors in Syria have suspended their mission after coming under sniper fire earlier on Monday.
Unidentified snipers shot at U.N. experts on Monday, forcing them to suspend their attempt to investigate claims that chemical weapons had been used near Damascus, a U.N. spokesman said, according to AFP.
"The first vehicle of the chemical weapons investigation team was deliberately shot at multiple times by unidentified snipers," said U.N. spokesman Martin Nesirky. No injuries were reported.
U.N. weapons investigators were due on Monday to inspect the site of a suspected chemical attack which killed at least 1,300 people last week in Damascus suburbs.
The move follows Syria agreeing on Sunday to allow the inspectors to visit the site, although an American official told reporters the move was “too late to be credible.”
You don't think Assad would order his troops to do something like that, do you?

Meanwhile, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon talked big and carried a little stick.
Meanwhile, U.N. chief Ban Ki-Moon said Monday there was no time to waste in investigating the alleged chemical attack.
“Every hour counts. We cannot afford any more delays,” Ban told reporters in Seoul, AFP news agency reported.
“The world is watching Syria,” the secretary general said, stressing once again that the U.N. experts must be allowed to conduct a “full, thorough and unimpeded” investigation.
“We cannot allow impunity in what appears to be a grave crime against humanity,” said Ban who was wrapping up a five-day visit to his homeland, South Korea.
 What could go wrong?

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