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Sunday, April 05, 2009

Israel's attack on Iran is coming

There's a fascinating article by Richard Beeston in Friday's Times of London that draws an eerie parallel between the lead-up to Israel's attack on the Osirak nuclear facility in 1981 and the coming attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
An Israeli colleague was sent on an assignment so secret and sensitive that it was years before he would share the full story with friends.

He was dispatched by Menachem Begin, then the Prime Minister, to European capitals with orders to meet editors, politicians and opinion makers to spread the word that Israel was increasingly concerned about Iraq's nuclear programme and would do anything to stop Saddam Hussein building the bomb. The warnings, intended to prepare Western public opinion, were largely dismissed as sabre-rattling (one editor insisted on discussing a new lavatory system designed on a kibbutz) - until June 1981, when Israeli Air Force F16s bombed the plant to rubble.

A few days ago a chill went down my spine when an articulate and intelligent senior Israeli official made exactly the same argument about Iran's nuclear programme at a briefing in London. He described an Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat to the Jewish state, which would defend itself whatever the consequences. These warnings are not new but the political and military circumstances are conspiring to make an Israeli attack on Iran a probability, unless the Middle East experiences dramatic changes in the coming weeks and months.
Of course, I was trying to get you all to think along the same lines when I posted the video of the Osirak attack this past week.

But Beeston has apparently forgotten a key aspect of Israel's attack on Osirak: Beeston believes that Israel will not undertake the attack without at least tacit American approval. Michael Ledeen, who was in the State Department at the time ('in the same position that Dennis Ross currently holds') disagrees.
I can add another piece to his jigsaw puzzle. At the time of the attack on the Iraqi facility, I was Special Adviser to the Secretary of State (the same title that Dennis Ross holds today), and it was quite clear that nobody in the U.S. Government knew that attack was coming. Menachem Begin didn't ask for permission, and while there were some top Americans who were irked that they hadn't received advance warning, I didn't hear anybody say that the Israelis needed our approval, tacit or explicit.

If the Israelis think that Iran is likely to nuke them, I can't imagine why they would feel constrained by American wishes. Good relations aren't a suicide pact, after all. I doubt that the Israelis will ask any such question, in keeping with the old adage, don't ask the question if you don't want to hear the answer.
I'm with Ledeen. If this attack comes - and I believe it will - no one in this Israeli government is going to ask approval from this American administration for it. Once Olmert left office last week, all the asking American approval to sneeze went out the window. As Beeston points out, Netanyahu is an old sayeret matkal veteran - that's the most elite of Israel's elite forces - and knows exactly how to carry out this type of operation. And Defense Minister Ehud Barak was Netanyahu's commanding officer.

And while George Bush might have at least gotten a phone call ten minutes in advance, the hostile administration of Barack Hussein Obama won't even get that. That moron would probably call the Iranians and tell them what's coming.


At 2:43 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

As head of the International Jewish Conspiracy I usually remain silent on articles posted. However, I can remain silent no longer. Stop telling the goyim our plans (even if you discovered them clandestinely). If you persist we will write you a nasty letter and then knock your yamulka off. zy nist ken nar un ret nist ken mieses

At 5:51 AM, Blogger NormanF said...

Then Prime Minister Menachem Begin did not inform President Ronald Reagan about Israel's attack on Osirak. The operation was a well-kept secret known only to a handful of individuals in Israel. Only when it was over did the world learn to what lengths Israel went to stop Saddam Hussein's nuclear ambitions.

The same is probably true about Iran. The only question is no longer if but when Israel will act. If Bibi knows, he is not telling any one his plans.

At 7:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Israelis know what they are doing. Why share plans with a natural putz like Obmama?

At 9:09 AM, Blogger ilovethongbikinibabes said...

You dumb Jews. Isreal got its' ass kicked by a few thousand militants in Lebanon. You really think you can take on Iran? I think your Yamulkas are on too tight and not not enough blood is getting to your brains.

Unfortunately as long as you think you are the chosen people and that you are entitled to killing Plastenians and taking their land you are DOOMED.

By the way you dumb Jews. Obama is on your side you ingrats. If it wasn't for the money and support form America you'd already be dead so bow your heads and kiss my American Ass.

At 2:35 PM, Blogger Leon RJ Brooks said...

Underestimating modern Israel in military terms can be easily summarised in one word:

      F A I L

Mr Obama seems to have a random enough history to be well worth not involving at all.

(this inexpert comment from a random non-Israelite Australian)

At 3:10 AM, Blogger NotSelfButCountry said...

Israel should do what is best for her people and play the political game after the fact, once her people are safe. Israel shouldn't worry about what other people think if it keeps the Israeli people safe.
To the other comments, you can get your point across without insulting an entire religon.


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