Russian plane brought down by 'external force' in Sinai
Russia is saying that a Kogalymavia Airlines passenger jet that crashed in Sinai on Saturday while enroute from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg was brought down by an 'external force.' ISIS has claimed that it shot the plane down presumably as revenge for Russian military activity in Syria. All 224 passengers and crew on the plane were killed.
"We exclude technical problems and reject
human error," Alexander Smirnov, a Kogalymavia airline official, said at
a Moscow news conference as he discussed possible causes of the crash.
He
added that the crew did not issue any warnings or communications during
the final moments, indicating that the flight crew must have been
disabled and not able to radio out.
However,
Smirnov said that while the plane's flight and voice data recorders had
been recovered, they had not been read or decoded.
But no one else wants to believe that ISIS is responsible. No one, that is, except Lufthansa, Air France, Emirates, Air Arabia and Air Dubai, all of which have announced that they will not be flying over Sinai until further notice. This is from the first link.
Officials have played down an apparent
claim by Islamic militants in Sinai that they brought down the Airbus
A321-200, saying technical failure is the most likely reason for the
crash.
But so far, they haven't been
able to give a definitive explanation for what happened, with the
Egyptian President suggesting investigations could take months.
This is not the first flight out of Sharm to crash since Israel returned the resort to Egypt as part of the Camp David treaty. In 2004, a Flash Airlines charter flight from Sharm to Paris crashed into the Red Sea shortly after takeoff. A former work colleague of mine who had subsequently moved to France was aboard that flight.
You might recall that in 2006, El Al announced that all of its planes are equipped with the Flight Guard anti-missile system. In 2008, American Airlines decided that the system was too expensive for its planes. Given that this is the second time in the last 16 months that a commercial passenger jet has been shot down, perhaps the airlines ought to consider installing the Flight Guard system.
The Malaysia Airlines plane, which was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala
Lumpur, was travelling at an altitude of 33,000 feet (10,000 metres)
when it was shot down, Russia's Interfax reported.
An adviser to the Ukrainian interior ministry said the Boeing 777 was brought down by a Buk ground-to-air missile.
All 280 passengers and 15 crew members who were on the plane are believed to have died, he added.
A spokesman for Malaysian Airlines, still reeling from the loss of
flight MH370 in March, confirmed it had lost contact with flight MH17,
which took off from Amsterdam at 12.15pm local time.
The flight disappeared from radar as it flew over Ukrainian airspace, the spokesman said.
A number of videos apparently filmed near the village of Grabovo,
Donetsk, where the plane came down, show plumes of thick, black smoke
rising high into the air.
TV channel Russia 24 broadcast similar pictures, while a Reuters
correspondent at the scene said he could see the wreckage of a burning
aircraft and bodies on the ground.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk ordered an immediate
investigation into what he described as a "catastrophe", while his
Malaysian counterpart Mohd Najib Tun Razak said he was "shocked".
Alexander Borodai, the eastern Ukraine separatist leader, claimed the
airliner was shot down by Ukrainian government forces, although
officials in Kiev denied any involvement.
There has been no official comment from authorities in Russia.
Sky's Katie Stallard, in Moscow, said media reports suggest the plane
came down in an area where there has been recent heavy fighting amid
continuing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Netanyahu says Israel will stop Syrian weapons from falling into the 'wrong hands'
In London for Margaret Thatcher's funeral, Prime Minister Netanyahu told the BBC that Israel would prevent Syrian chemical weapons and anti-aircraft missiles from falling into the 'wrong hands.' (Video of interview here).
"The main arms of concern to us are the arms that are already in Syria -
these are anti-aircraft weapons, these are chemical weapons and other
very, very dangerous weapons that could be game changers," he said in an
interview with the BBC.
Netanyahu warned these weapons could change the balance of power in
the Middle East, and stressed that it is not just in Israel's interest
to stop these weapons from getting into the wrong hands, but it's in
other countries' interest as well.
Despite this, Netanyahu echoed
past statements that Israel doesn't seek to interfere in the Syrian
civil war. "We are prepared to defend ourselves if the need arises and I
think people know that what I say is both measured and serious," he
said.
But I have to wonder where Reuters got this:
Israel believes that around one in 10 of the rebels are Sunni Muslim radicals, officials told Reuters.
Yadlin: This won't be the last time we strike Syria
Former Chief of IDF intelligence and director of the Institute for National Security Studies Amos Yadlin told the Washington Post on Saturday that Israel's recent strike in Syria is unlikely to be the last one.
Israel, he said, has defined four types of weapons whose transfer to
militant groups would not be tolerated: advanced air defense systems,
ballistic missiles, sophisticated shore-to-sea missiles and chemical
weapons.
In accordance with this policy, Yadlin said, “any time
Israel will have reliable intelligence that this is going to be
transferred from Syria to Lebanon, it will act,” although specific
decisions to strike would be subject to assessments of the military
value of the attack, the risk of escalation and the positions of foreign
powers.
“As the Syrian army becomes weaker and Hezbollah grows
more isolated because of the loss of its Syrian patron, it makes sense
that this will continue,” Yadlin said, adding that Israeli responses
would be weighed each time and “not happen automatically.”
The
real dilemma facing Israeli officials, Yadlin said, is not whether to
attack, but whether inaction would mean a greater threat later. “The
correct comparison is the risk of escalation now and the risk of having a
much more formidable enemy and many casualties in future hostilities,”
he said.
Analysts in Lebanon also predicted more Israeli strikes if advanced weapons transfers were attempted.
“Israel
is trying to create a sense of deterrence,” said Elias Hanna, a retired
general and a professor at the American University of Beirut. “The
other side tries to test and erode the system.”
...
With the Syrian army preoccupied with internal fighting and Hezbollah
wary of jeopardizing its position in Lebanon as its Syrian sponsor
weakens, neither is likely to risk wider conflict by retaliating against
Israel for the Jan. 30 strike, according to the Israeli official and
analysts.
“The Syrians are interested in keeping the civil war in
Syria, where they are militarily much stronger than the rebels,” Yadlin
said. “Against external forces, they would be inferior.”
“If
Hezbollah attacked [Israel], they would basically be admitting that the
air defense system was on its way to them, infuriating the Russians” who
supplied the weapons to Syria with the understanding that they would
not be moved to Hezbollah, he said.
Still, Yadlin cautioned, every additional Israeli strike would raise the risk of escalation.
If this analysis is correct, the strikes should all be on the Syrian side of the border. Since 2006, Israel has avoided striking in Lebanon, even though that policy permitted the massive buildup of some 60,000 rockets that Hezbullah has available to it today. There will be another war. The only question is when.
Satellite images show Syrian chem weapons storage facility untouched
Satellite images shown on Israel's Channel 2 television on Wednesday night show Syria's chemical weapons storage facility in Jamarya, northwest of Damascus undamaged by last Wednesday night's bombing. The facility was not the subject of the attack - a nearby weapons convoy headed to Hezbullah in Lebanon was.
The before and after images show a burnt road, as well as a crater caused by a bomb that missed its target.
Syria publicly accused Israel of striking a scientific research center
northwest of Damascus, denying reports that the strike had targeted a
suspected shipment of anti-aircraft missiles en route to Hezbollah in
Lebanon.
The description of the military research center that Syria
claimed the IAF jets targeted fits the definition of Syria’s Scientific
Studies and Research Center, which has been labeled a state organization
responsible for developing biological and chemical weapons and
transferring them to Hezbollah and Hamas.
The images, however,
don't show any damage done to a military research facility nearby that
Syrians claim have been the target of the reported attack.
US officials: Israelis targeted weapons convoy, chem weapons facility was collateral damage
US officials confirm that an Israeli air strike last week targeted a convoy moving sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles from Syria to Hezbullah in Iran. The officials say that the damage to a Syrian chemical weapons storage facility was collateral damage and that the facility was not a target of the attack.
Syrian television showed images of broken glass and other damage at the
Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center, which is suspected of
involvement in developing missiles to carry chemical weapons. But the
video contained no evidence of a crater or the type of damage that would
have been expected from a direct bombing.
...
“The main target was a shipment of weapons in a convoy, potentially
headed to the wrong kinds of people,” said one senior U.S. military
official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the
sensitivity of the incident.
The two U.S. officials suggested that
the research center north of Damascus was damaged by secondary
explosions from munitions in the convoy that was the target Wednesday.
The Syrian government has said the research center was the primary
target.
Other Western officials and a senior Lebanese official
have said that the convoy contained antiaircraft batteries that were
destined for Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. The Syrian television footage
showed the wreckage of what appeared to be a mobile launcher of the type
used to fire SA17 antiaircraft missiles, which are known to be part of
Syria’s arsenal.
Of course, the choice of location to strike that weapons convoy may not have been accidental. Damage to the chemical weapons facility is clearly a bonus for Israelwhoever did it. Heh.
US officials say Israel notified them of Syrian attack, target was sophisticated SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles
Although, Israel has not confirmed it, American officials have told the New York Times that Israel notified the US that it attacked a convoy of weapons headed for Hezbullah in Lebanon. The weapons in question were sophisticated SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles (Hat Tip: Herb G).
The American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Israel
had notified the United States about the attack, which the Syrian
government condemned as an act of “arrogance and aggression.” Israel’s
move demonstrated its determination to ensure that Hezbollah — its arch
foe in the north — is unable to take advantage of the chaos in Syria to bolster its arsenal significantly.
The predawn strike was the first time in more than five years that
Israel’s air force had attacked a target in Syria. While there was no
expectation that the beleaguered Assad government had an interest in
retaliating, the strike raised concerns that the Syrian civil war had
continued to spread beyond its border.
In a statement, the Syrian military denied that a convoy had been
struck. It said the attack had hit a scientific research facility in the
Damascus suburbs that was used to improve Syria’s defenses, and called
the attack “a flagrant breach of Syrian sovereignty and airspace.”
Israeli officials would not confirm the airstrike, a common tactic here.
But it came after days of intense security consultations with Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the possible movement of chemical
and other weapons around Syria, and warnings that Jerusalem would take
action to thwart any possible transfers to Hezbollah.
Thousands of Israelis have crowded gas-mask distribution centers over
the last two days. On Sunday, Israel deployed its Iron Dome missile
defense system in the north, near Haifa, which was heavily bombed during
the 2006 war with Lebanon.
But a full scale war does not look likely.
“It is necessary and correct to prepare for deterioration — that
scenario exists,” Danny Yatom, a former chief of the Mossad, Israel’s
intelligence agency, told Ynet, a news Web site. “But in my assessment,
there will not be a reaction, because neither Hezbollah nor the Syrians
have an interest in retaliating.”
Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, “is deep in his own troubles,” Mr.
Yatom said, “and Hezbollah is making a great effort to assist him, in
parallel with its efforts to obtain weapons, so they won’t want to
broaden the circle of fighting.”
Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy explains why the SA-17's matter.
“Israel is able to fly reconnaissance flights over Lebanon with impunity
right now,” Mr. Levitt said. “This could cut into its ability to
conduct aerial intelligence. The passing along of weapons to Hezbollah
by the regime is a real concern.”
The
SA-17 is an advanced antiaircraft missile with a low radar signature,
which makes it difficult to target it. It possesses a range of
approximately 25 kilometers, and the IAF considers them a danger to its
freedom of operation in the region.
Israeli strike on Syrian side of border destroyed anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles
IAF warplanes destroyed a convoy of anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles that were heading for Hezbullah in Lebanon during the early hours of Wednesday morning. There were no chemical weapons involved. The attack took place just inside the Syrian side of the border in an area where the border is not well delineated.
"The target was a truck loaded with weapons, heading from Syria to
Lebanon," said one Western diplomat, adding that the consignment seemed
unlikely to have included chemical weapons.
A source among rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad said an
air strike around dawn (0430 GMT) blasted a convoy on a mountain track
about 5 kilometers (3 miles) south of where the main Damascus-Beirut
highway crosses the border. Its load probably included high-tech
anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles.
"It attacked trucks carrying
sophisticated weapons from the regime to Hezbollah," the source said,
adding that it took place inside Syria, though the border is poorly
defined in the area.
A security official in the region also placed
the attack on the Syrian side. A Lebanese security official denied any
strike in Lebanon. It was not clear whether special forces took part.
The Israeli government declined comment on the issue.
Such
a strike would fit its existing policy of pre-emptive covert and overt
action to curb Iranian-backed Hezbollah and does not necessarily
indicate a major escalation of the war in Syria. It does, however,
indicate how the erosion of Assad's family rule after 42 years is seen
by Israel as posing a threat.
Some analysts suggested Hezbollah was moving its own arms caches from stores in Syria, fearing rebels would overrun them.
Those of you who have been longtime readers might recall that during the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Israel attacked supply convoys being sent from Bashar al-Assad to Hezbullah just inside the Lebanese side of the border. At the time, the Bush administration was encouraging Israel to attack Syria, but then-Prime Minister Ehud K. Olmert was afraid to do it. Olmert could have saved a lot of Syrian lives by deposing Assad then.
Now, the situation is different. The IDF would rather attack in a weakened Syria than run the risk of giving Hebzullah an excuse for a distraction from the ongoing Syrian civil war. But our government still seems determined to stand firm and not allow Hezbullah to obtain advanced weapons or weapons of mass destruction.
Based on a report in Britain's Sunday Times (which is behind a paywall), YNet reports that Russian technicians were behind Syria shooting down a Turkish F-4 Phantom last week as a warning to NATO to stay out of Syria's civil war.
Russian technicians played a key part in the interception and shooting down of a Turkish warplane by Syria’s anti-aircraft defenses 10 days ago, Britain's Sunday Times reported Sunday. Diplomatic sources in the Middle East told the paper that destroying the F-4E Phantom II was a split-second decision intended as a warning to NATO to stay out of Syria’s civil war.
A source in Israel's Air Force was quoted as saying “we would not be surprised if these Russian experts, if they didn’t push the button, at least were beside the Syrian officers who did it."
...
“It definitely has Russian fingerprints on it,” a diplomat told the Sunday Times. He summarized the Russian message: “Syria is not Libya and any attempt to impose a ‘no fly zone’ over Syria will face one of the most formidable air defenses on Earth and will cost any attacker dearly.”
Meanwhile, the fairytale President of the United States is afraid to confront the Russians.
An international conference held in Geneva Saturday accepted a UN-brokered peace plan for Syria, but saw Russia and China still supporting President Bashar Assad.
The US was forced to back away from demands that Assad be excluded, hoping the concession would encourage Russia to put greater pressure on its longtime ally to end the violent crackdown that the opposition says has claimed over 14,000 lives.
The unarmed reconnaissance jet had briefly entered Syrian airspace on June 22 as it approached land after patrolling the eastern Mediterranean, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc said, but was warned by Turkish radar controllers and immediately left and turned again out to sea.
It then made another approach to land when it was shot down 13 miles off the coast in international airspace, he said, out of the reach of Syria's anti-aircraft guns.
"According to the data in our hands, it points to our plane being shot by a laser or heat-guided surface-to-air missile. The fact our plane was not given an early radar warning, suggests it was not a radar-guided missile," said Arinc.
Hmmm. If this is correct, it's much more important than the exact location of the plane when it was shot down. Aren't you glad Obama pressed that reset button with the Russians?
Russia delivered at least 1,800 shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles to Venezuela in 2009, U.N. arms control data show, despite vigorous U.S. efforts to stop President Hugo Chavez's stridently anti-American government from acquiring the weapons.
The United States feared that the missiles could be funneled to Marxist guerrillas fighting Colombia's pro-American government or Mexican drug cartels, concerns expressed in U.S. diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks and first reported in the Spanish newspaper El Pais.
It had been unclear how many of the Russian SA-24 missiles were delivered to Venezuela, though the transfer itself was not secret. Chavez showed off a few dozen at a military parade in April 2009, saying they could "deter whatever aerial aggression against our country." A high-level Russian delegation told American officials in Washington in July of that year that 100 of the missiles had been delivered in the first quarter of 2009.
Then earlier this year, Russia reported to the U.N. Register of Conventional Arms, which records the transnational sale of weaponry, that the deal totaled 1,800 missiles.
The U.N. registry did not reveal the model of the delivered weaponry. But the American commander for military forces in Latin America, Air Force Gen. Douglas Fraser, publicly expressed concern this year that Venezuela was purchasing as many as 2,400 of the missiles, also called the IGLA-S.
Matt Schroeder, a missile expert at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, said the missiles are among the most sophisticated in the world and can down aircraft from 19,000 feet.
"It's the largest recorded transfer in the U.N. arms registry database in five years, at least. There's no state in Latin America of greater concern regarding leakage that has purchased so many missiles," he said, referring to reports of Venezuelan arms flowing to Colombian guerrillas.
Add to that Iran's placing intermediate range ballistic missiles in Venezuela that can reach the US, and what could go wrong?
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
