The devil we know?
As the conflict continues, worries concerning WMDs falling into the wrong hands have been raised by many experts. However, this concern might also mean a tacit assumption that the Syrian WMD arsenal in the hands of Assad and his regime would be safe.
First, this WMD arsenal is already as dangerous as it could be in the hands of a tyrant. Second, the Baathist dictatorship possesses not only a WMD inventory but is also known to have used them. In 1982, during the Hama massacre, the Assad regime used cyanide gas to indiscriminately annihilate the opposition at that time. So far, during the ongoing civil war, several reports indicate that the regime has used limited amounts of sarin in order to halt the opposition’s progress in strategic areas. What is more, the Syrian chemical weapons inventory includes the deadliest of nerve agents, VX. For starters, an effective VX dispersion might be tantamount to the possible effects of a tactical nuclear weapon due to its high contamination rates and its capacity to linger in the environment for a long time, up to weeks under appropriate conditions.
Notably, during his address at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) annual security conference in April 2013, Gen. Itai Brun, a top Israeli military intelligence figure, openly stressed that Israel firmly believed that Assad has used chemical weapons against the opposition. Moreover, according to press sources, one of the targets that the IAF struck in early May was the Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) in Jamraya, which is a cover institution for Syria’s WMD proliferation.Israel's decision makers are nowhere near as naive as Dr. Kasapoglu makes them out to be. They clearly understand that Israel's interest in the Syrian conflict is not preserving the rule of Bashar al-Assad, but making sure that he does not transfer weapons to Hezbullah. All of Israel's actions to date have been undertaken to ensure that such a weapons transfer does not happen.
No one here ever believed that Assad would not use his weapons of mass destruction. Rather, most Israelis believe that Assad was not sufficiently suicidal to use them against Israel knowing the devastating response that would follow. That is probably still a valid assumption. Assad is not a courageous leader. He would be happy to see Hezbullah use those weapons against Israel as his proxy. He will not do so himself. The IAF knows - and has proven that it knows - how to find him.
On the other hand, the Islamists - should they gain control of Syria - are far more likely to unleash a suicidal chemical weapons attack on Israel than is Assad. The Assad family has shown for two generations that their sole interest is in preserving the rule of the Assad's and their Alawite clan. The Islamists would have no such constrictions. If the Nusra front were to gain control over Syria, Israel would face an intractable Sunni enemy in Syria that is every bit as bent on its destruction as our Shiia enemy in Lebanon.
All in all, the best case scenario for Israel is for the civil war in Syria to continue and for both sides to kill each other off.
Labels: Bashar al-Assad, Free Syrian Army, Nusra Front, Syrian uprising
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:12 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home