Israel Matzav

There's no bluff to be called

What will it take for the World to stop pretending that Iran is bluffing and to take the threat posed by Ayatollah Ali Khameni and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seriously? Here's an example of someone who is not taking them seriously.

Reuters noted that hopes are slight for a breakthrough at the upcoming meeting, but there have been hints -- as well as push-back from Congress -- of an emerging fuel swap deal similar to the one orchestrated by Turkey and Brazil in May.

That deal was promptly rejected by the United States in favor of U.N. Security Council sanctions. At the time, the United States had a perfectly good reason to swat aside the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) fuel-swap deal, as it was known. The TRR fuel pact was a confidence-building measure, but one that Iran hoped would forestall the sanctions that the United States had spent months of diplomatic efforts to put in place. This was a case of having to subvert one track -- engagement -- of the dual-track U.S. strategy toward Iran to reaffirm the other -- pressure.

But now those sanctions, and others -- are now in place. While the United States is imposing some additional sanctions with the European Union, nothing so broad is in the immediate offing. The latest moves don't mean the United States can't push for a new confidence-building measure, at the same time perhaps calling Ahmadinejad's bluff.

Such a deal would also throw a bone to Turkey, a fellow NATO member and rising power that maintains good relations with Iran, as well as Pakistan, positioning itself as a credible mediator between the Islamic Republic and the West. (Turkey's relations with Israel are also on the mend -- notwithstanding overwrought neoconservative objections -- suggesting the country's tilt to the East is not as complete as Middle East hawks portray it.

Plus, there's really not much for the United States to lose in striking a TRR-like pact -- if there is no fuel-swap deal to ship some of Iran's nuclear material off its soil, the Islamic Republic simply hangs onto its entire stockpile. Since the United States is imposing new sanctions ahead of the talks anyway, a deal can't be dismissed as a way to wriggle out of the latest round of pressure. That might be why the United States has demonstrated a degree of willingness to strike a temporary compromise. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently said that some continued Iranian enrichment might be possible, a notion reiterated by Obama administration counter-proliferation czar Gary Samore.

It's time to stop fooling ourselves that Iran is bluffing. When someone says that they want to kill you, you ought to take him seriously.

And by the way, relations between Israel and Turkey - other than economic necessities are far from being on the mend. There are daily exchanges in which Turkey demands an apology for the Mavi Marmara and Israel refuses to apologize.

What could go wrong?

Labels: enriched uranium, Iranian nuclear threat, P 5+1

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:40 AM