Why the freeze will pass
The 'settlement freeze' extension currently appears likely to pass the cabinet by a narrow margin.Here's the math.
The current head count in the security cabinet seems to promise Netanyahu a narrow victory although, as in previous historic choices, much depends on Shas.And then they'll claim to their voters that they didn't cause it to pass - or prevent it from passing - because they abstained. Only in Israel could a political party get away with this kind of act. There is NO accountability here. They won't be punished in the next election. They never are.
Netanyahu’s most natural allies in the security cabinet on this issue are the two Labor representatives – Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer.
For Barak especially, the renewed freeze would be a breath of fresh air – a building moratorium and progress in the peace talks is exactly what the Labor chairman needs to shore up his support in a party that is increasingly looking for a new leader, and reiterate why he brought the left-wing party into a right-wing coalition in the first place.
Among the security cabinet’s Likud members, Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz, Education Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Intelligence Agencies Minister Dan Meridor are all expected to vote with the prime minister, as will Justice Minister Yaakov Neeman, who does not belong to a party.
Almost as many Likud security cabinet members have already declared their intention to vote against the proposed freeze, with Deputy Prime Minister Silvan Shalom leading the most vocal charge, followed by Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon and Minister-without- Portfolio Bennie Begin.
Israel Beiteinu’s three representatives – Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovich and National Infrastructures Minister Uzi Landau – will all cast votes against the freeze.
The total thus far? A critically narrow seven in favor of a 90- day moratorium, and six opposing.
Enter Shas.
Shas indicated Sunday that Netanyahu has little to fear. The haredi party holds two votes in the security cabinet, those of Interior Minister Eli Yishai and Construction and Housing Minister Ariel Attias. Those two votes could, needless to say, mean the difference between freeze and no freeze, with Shas responsible for a historic defeat for Netanyahu.
Yishai has said, however, that Shas will abstain from the critical vote, adding that the abstention was dependent on “massive building in Jerusalem.”
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Eli Yishai, Shas
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:56 AM
1 Comments:
Israel's electoral system makes it possible for politicians to defy voters and disregard their promises. They are elected on a party list after all and don't have to be accountable to any constituents.
As for Yesha's threats to bring the government, good luck with. An Israeli government has been brought only once by a vote of no-confidence and at this point in time, none of the politicians are eager to face the electorate.
The freeze renewal is meant to keep Obama happy and no one in Israel seriously thinks its going to bring the Palestinians back to the table. That's the bottom line.
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