Israel Matzav

Military Intelligence Chief: 'Syrian scud transfer to Hezbullah the tip of the iceberg'

Military intelligence chief Yossi Baidetz briefed the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, and much of what he had to say was not reassuring. He confirmed some of our worst suspicions.

"Weapons are transferred to Hezbollah on a regular basis and this transfer is organized by the Syrian and Iranian regimes. Therefore, it should not be called smuggling of arms to Lebanon – it is organized and official transfer."

He claimed that "the transfer of long-range missiles that was recently published is only the tip of the iceberg."

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He added, "The long-range missiles in Hezbollah's possession enable them to fix their launch areas deep inside Lebanon, and they cover longer, larger ranges than what we have come across in the past. Hezbollah of 2006 is different from Hezbollah of 2010 in terms its military capabilities, which have developed significantly.

"Hezbollah is in a tense spot between two different identities: Its commitment to Jihad and Iran, and on the other hand, its political considerations in Lebanon and the needs of the Shiite community. Therefore, it has quietly selected its current course of action. The MI believes it is not interested in another wide-scare confrontation with Israel, it fears it, but is preparing for it. The organization still publicly vows to carry out terror attacks against Israel."

According to the head of the MI's research department, "Syria continues to march to both tunes, without being forced to choose between them by the international community. On the one hand, it is improving its ties with the West, with Arab states, and with Turkey, and is also regaining influence within Lebanon, and on the other hand, it is intensifying strategic and operational cooperation with Iran, Hezbollah, and the Palestinian terror."

However, Baidatz noted that Syria considers a peace agreement with Israel one of its top priorities. "The MI sees a Syrian desire to reach an agreement, but on its own terms, meaning: Returning the entire Golan Heights and American involvement."

According to MI estimates, in exchange for an agreement Syria is willing to alter its activity on the radical axis, but Syrian President Bashar Assad sees no change for progress with the current Israeli government, and is therefore unwilling to make any confidence-building moves.

Let's stop here because there's a critical question regarding Hezbullah and a critical question regarding Syria. On Monday, I read something that placed the potential threat to Israel from Hezbullah in different terms than I had seen before. The scenario is that Israel sends its jets off to attack Iran (for those wondering why jets and not missiles, go here). Israel sustains a certain number of losses. The Obama administration refuses to re-arm Israel. Hezbullah attacks. What does Israel do?

My guess is (and I did not see this in print) that Israel puts those Jericho missiles that could not reach Iran to use against Hezbullah. Is Hezbullah willing to take that chance? Does its loyalty to Iran override those domestic considerations in Lebanon enough to take a hit to Lebanon's infrastructure that could completely wipe it out? I don't see an answer to that question and I'm not sure that anyone in Israel really knows the answer.

Regarding Syria, my sense is that it doesn't want ahttp://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=20498788 peace agreement - worthless though that might be to Israel - it wants the Golan. What is it offering in return? It's not offering normal relations. It's not even willing to sit down at a negotiating table. Forget that they aren't convinced that they can make progress with this government (a factor I mentioned before). Israel's Left is so beaten down that the odds of another Labor - Meretz coalition that is willing to negotiate with Syria and seriously consider giving what it wants in the next 20 years are virtually none. So now what? Are the Syrians willing to let the border situation continue as it has for most of the last 36 years? I think they are. They don't want a war that they have no chance of winning. So why are they transferring arms to Lebanon? I think it's partly out of a desire to cause trouble and partly in the hope that through Iran's actions, some opportunity will present itself to make a quick surprise attack and retake the Golan (which is what they did in 1973 under Egyptian cover, but they didn't manage to hold on).

Now Baidetz comes to the 'Palestinians.'

On the Palestinian front, a day before the opening of proximity talks, the IDF has a grim estimate. "Abu Mazen (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas) is interested in an agreement with Israel, but his range of flexibility on the core issues is limited," the senior officer said.

"We do not recognize in Abu Mazen a true attempt for flexibility on the fundamental issues, and he is expected to come with the same position that existed in talks with the previous government. Abu Mazen is preparing the ground for these talks to fail – which will bring about the exposure of the true face of Israel."

I don't believe Abu Mazen is interested in an agreement unless Israel is willing to accept all his demands and sign. It is likely correct (and has been reported here in the media) that Abu Mazen's goal in the upcoming talks is to have Israel be blamed for their failure. The talks haven't even opened yet and we're on our way to that happening.

Two more tidbits:

As for Iran, he said, "The Iranians continues to push forward with their nuclear plans, and accumulate means that enable them to achieve nuclear weapons the moment they decide to. From this moment, it all depends on their decision. If in the past the attainment of nuclear capabilities depended on overcoming the technological obstacles, today, Iran is in a situation in which this depends solely on its decision to begin production of a nuclear bomb."

Baidatz also commented on terror alerts in the Sinai Peninsula, "On the eve of Passover there was a real alert related to Bedouin activity in Sinai, who were meant to kidnap Israelis staying in Sinai and transfer them to Hamas' military wing. There was a cooperation plan between them. The reports deterred the groups, but there is still a chance that Bedouins working as sub-contractors may kidnap Israelis and transfer them to Hamas."

Israelis: STAY OUT OF SINAI! What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:43 AM