Labor party says it's going to opposition, Netanyahu may already have a coalition
More tweets from Israel Radio's Chico Menashe.
Translation: Former Labor party leader (and Israel Radio broadcaster) Shelly Yacimovich says that the people have spoken, that they want Netanyahu to be the leader, and that her party will be going to the opposition.
A similar announcement came this morning from Yair Lapid regarding his Yesh Atid party.
In the meantime, Prime Minister Netanyahu may already have enough MK's for a coalition.
Of course, he'd still have to get them all to agree on ministries....
In any event, it sounds like President Rivlin's push for a national unity government is already a failure. And that's good news for Israel.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, coalition government, Knesset elections 2015, Labor party, Likud party, Shelly Yacimovich, Yair Lapid
Guess who's threatening to leave the coalition
Yair Lapid is threatening to leave the coalition if there are no '
negotiations.'
Officials in Yesh Atid confirmed a Channel 10 report that past
commitments Lapid made to remove his party from the coalition if there
are no peace talks applied to the situation that could arise in upcoming
days. The officials said the threat to leave was serious but not
immediate.
"It is not as if we will leave the day after talks break down," a Yesh Atid official said.
Netanyahu's
coalition is facing threats from Yesh Atid and Hatnua on the Left if
negotiations with the Palestinians end and from Bayit Yehudi leader
Naftali Bennett if Israeli Arab prisoners are released in a deal to
extend the talks.
But Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman downplayed
Bennett's threats Tuesday at a press briefing with his Austrian
counterpart, Sebastian Kurz.
"There is no chance Bayit Yehudi will quit the coalition," Liberman said. "Dont take Bennett's threats too seriously."
What could go wrong?
Labels: Avigdor Lieberman, Binyamin Netanyahu, coalition government, Tzipi Livni, Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid party
Netanyahu could pull a Sharon and break away from the Likud... at a price
If he wants to form a new party to back a 'peace agreement' with the 'Palestinians,' a new poll indicates that Prime Minister Netanyahu, like former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, could do just that. But his new party would be hard-pressed to form a governing coalition, and most of his support would be
coming from the Left.
The scenario poll question was phrased thus: "if the Likud prevents
Netanyahu from reaching an agreement that involves giving up territory
and elections were tomorrow – whom would you vote for?"
The poll predicted that 18 seats would go to Netanyahu's new party,
making it the Knesset's largest. Likud would drop from 20 to 17,
followed by Labor and Jewish Home at 16 each. Far-left Meretz would
shoot up from 6 to 11 seats.
Analyst Jeremy Saltan (aka Knesset Jeremy) spoke to Arutz Sheva to
make sense of all the figures, noting that the most surprising aspect
of the poll is that Netanyahu's seats would mostly come from voters who
currently support parties other than Likud. About 46% of those seats
would come from current Yisrael Beytenu supporters, and most of the rest
would come from center-left parties.
Finance Minister Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party would fall hard,
dropping from 19 to 10 seats. Similarly, Yisrael Beytenu and Shas both
would drop from 11 to 5. Hatnua would drop to 4 seats and Kadima would
not make it in.
"In my opinion, 18 seats is not strong enough for Netanyahu to break
off from Likud," assessed Saltan. "Even if it would be the biggest
party, the numbers don't merit a breakaway."
Saltan also has some more warnings for Netanyahu.
Saltan warns that one must be cautious in interpreting scenario
polls, as other factors - such as which MKs would follow Netanyahu into a
new party, and which MK would take over the Likud - could highly
influence the outcome.
The analyst notes that prior to Sharon's breakaway from Likud, voters
didn't foresee that Kadima would be a mix-match of "refugee MKs" from
various parties.
In response to the question of what Netanyahu should do if the Likud
opposes a peace deal, 51% said he should accept the Likud's decision,
while only 25% responded that he should create a new party.
Saltan remarks that this response may show that while the poll
indicates Netanyahu would retain the largest party, this doesn't mean
the majority of the Israeli public supports him breaking off to push
through land withdrawals.
Feiglin for Likud leader anyone? That would probably drain enough votes from Jewish Home to make Likud the largest party....
Labels: Ariel Sharon, Binyamin Netanyahu, coalition government, Likud party, Middle East peace process, Moshe Feiglin
Of course: White House selects Tom Friedman to reveal 'Kerry plan'
It makes perfect sense that the Obama administration would call on Tom Friedman to disclose the details of the 'Kerry plan' for the Middle East.
Here's why. Let's go to the videotape.
So here's what Friedman has to say about the '
Kerry plan.'
The
“Kerry Plan,” likely to be unveiled soon, is expected to call for an
end to the conflict and all claims, following a phased Israeli
withdrawal from the West Bank (based on the 1967 lines), with
unprecedented security arrangements in the strategic Jordan Valley. The
Israeli withdrawal will not include certain settlement blocs, but Israel
will compensate the Palestinians for them with Israeli territory. It
will call for the Palestinians to have a capital in Arab East Jerusalem
and for Palestinians to recognize Israel as the nation state of the
Jewish people. It will not include any right of return for Palestinian
refugees into Israel proper.
Kerry
expects and hopes that both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel
and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will declare that despite their
reservations about one or another element in the U.S. framework, they
will use it as the basis of further negotiations.
For this we're negotiating? This sounds remarkably like '
what everyone knows' the solution is supposed to be, and if we've proven nothing else going back to the Clinton parameters from the end of 2000, it's that
everyone doesn't know.
From there, Friedman veers off into Fantasyland.
This
is where things will get interesting. U.S. and Israeli officials in
close contact with Netanyahu describe him as torn, clearly understanding
that some kind of two-state solution is necessary for Israel’s
integrity as a Jewish democratic state, with the healthy ties to Europe
and the West that are vital for Israel’s economy. But he remains deeply
skeptical about Palestinian intentions — or as Netanyahu said here
Tuesday: “I do not want a binational state. But we also don’t want
another state that will start attacking us.” His political base, though,
which he nurtured, does not want Netanyahu making a U-turn.
Which
is why — although Netanyahu has started to prepare the ground here for
the U.S. plan — if he proceeds on its basis, even with reservations, his
coalition will likely collapse. He will lose a major part of his own
Likud Party and all his other right-wing allies. In short, for Netanyahu
to move forward, he will have to build a new political base around
centrist parties. To do that, Netanyahu would have to become, to some
degree, a new leader — overcoming his own innate ambivalence about any
deal with the Palestinians to become Israel’s most vocal and
enthusiastic salesman for a two-state deal, otherwise it would never
pass.
Well, yeah, the coalition would fall apart. But Netanyahu is not going to make that U-turn, because at this point, if he does, he will have no base in the Likud. And while Netanyahu saying no (which he will at least hopefully be smart enough to hold off doing until the 'Palestinians' inevitably say no - something that Friedman ignores) may precipitate Yesh Atid leaving the coalition, Netanyahu's alternative is to run behind Yair Lapid as Yesh Atid's number 2... and that's not going to happen.
Most Israelis (aside from those who never wanted a deal with the 'Palestinians' in the first place) would answer yes to all of these questions posed by Friedman.
In
essence what Kerry is daring to test is a question everyone has wanted
to avoid: Is the situation between Israelis and Palestinians at five
minutes to midnight or five minutes after midnight, or even 1 a.m. (beyond diplomacy)?
That
is, has Israel become so much more powerful than its neighbors that a
symmetrical negotiation is impossible, especially when the Palestinians
do not seem willing or able to mount another intifada that might force
Israel to withdraw? Has the neighborhood around Israel become so much
more unstable that any Israeli withdrawal from anywhere is unthinkable?
Has the number of Israeli Jews now living in East Jerusalem and the West
Bank become so much larger — more than 540,000 — that they are
immovable? And has the Palestinian rhetoric on the right of return
become so deeply embedded in Palestinian politics? So when you add them
all up, it becomes a fantasy to expect any Israeli or Palestinian leader
to have the strength to make the huge concessions needed for a
two-state solution?
Yes, Tom, read the
polls here. Most Israelis believe it's beyond diplomacy. Some of us have believed that for the last 20 years (at least).
Friedman writes that if Kery says the conflict cannot be resolved, Israel will make a 'unilateral withdrawal.' The United States is far more likely to withdraw from Louisiana in such an instance than Israel is to withdraw from Judea and Samaria. It won't happen.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, coalition government, Israeli polls, John Kerry, Judea and Samaria, Likud party, Middle East peace process, Tom Friedman, two-state solution, unilateral withdrawal
Love on the rocks?
A report on the Srugim (Knitted skullcap) website claims that the relationship between Jewish Home party leader Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid is
on the rocks, with Bennett calling Yesh Atid undemocratic (link in Hebrew). The two parties are the largest parties in Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition.
Bennett also accused chief
negotiator bottle washer Tzipi Livni of living in a fantasy world, saying that the 'Palestinians' do not and will not recognize a Jewish state.
Bennett made his comments in an interview with journalist and former Netanyahu spokesman
Yoaz Hendel. This is the second time Hendel has rated a mention in Israel Matzav.
JPost adds:
According to Army Radio, Bennett referred to Lapid as a “dictator” at a
political event in Petah Tikva on Thursday. An audio of Bennett’s
statements was played on Army Radio Sunday morning.
“We are a diverse party with many viewpoints, not a dictatorship like
Yesh Atid or [Avigdor] Liberman[‘s Yisrael Beytenu],” Bennett is heard
saying. “[Yesh Atid] is an undemocratic party without primaries, and
this is no secret.”
The relationship between Bennett and Lapid has been deteriorating in
recent months amid disputes over the diplomatic process with the
Palestinians and matters of religion and state.
They have been increasingly critical of each other in closed
conversations. Thursday’s remarks were not intended to be revealed to
the public.
I'm shocked. Just shocked. (Not!). And who rushes to Lapid's defense? Of course, his
useful idiot. (Quote from previous link).
Yesh Atid MK Dov Lipman came out in defense of his party following news of Bennett's remarks.
"I believe that no other party has the unity, discourse, and focus that
Yesh Atid has displayed and will continue to display," he said.
The US-born Lipman said that "it is the greatest honor to serve with such a wonderful group and such an open and fair chairman."
In response to Bennett's allegation that Yesh Atid doesn't hold
primaries, Lipman said that the party constitution calls for primaries
after the third elections so as to "prevent anyone from hijacking the
agenda."
If they last that long....
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, coalition government, Jewish Home party, Middle East peace process, Naftali Bennett, Tzipi Livni, Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid party
Barak looking to leave government?
Defense Minister Ehud Barak seems to be laying the groundwork to take his
Labor party out of the government, as just about everyone else in the party except for him would like to do.
The current coalition makes it impossible for peace talks to succeed, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in a Thursday speech to the Pensioners' Union.
"There is a contradiction between the government's structure and the chances to go deeper in this kind of negotiations," Barak said.
"We joined the government so it would go in this direction, but we still haven't reached the goal," the Labor leader went on. "If this government can't move towards peace talks, we must consider widening it and making a national unity coalition."
Barak warned against missing an opportunity "to reach victory and peace."
Ehud Barak knew who was in this coalition when he went in, and he knew it was mostly Right wing parties that would not give the country away for nothing. On the other hand, the coalition has been bending over backward to try to get the 'Palestinians' to come to the table.
Barak is full of horse manure.
Labels: coalition government, Ehud Barak, Labor party
