Israel Matzav

Netanyahu could pull a Sharon and break away from the Likud... at a price

If he wants to form a new party to back a 'peace agreement' with the 'Palestinians,' a new poll indicates that Prime Minister Netanyahu, like former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, could do just that. But his new party would be hard-pressed to form a governing coalition, and most of his support would be coming from the Left.

The scenario poll question was phrased thus: "if the Likud prevents Netanyahu from reaching an agreement that involves giving up territory and elections were tomorrow – whom would you vote for?"

The poll predicted that 18 seats would go to Netanyahu's new party, making it the Knesset's largest. Likud would drop from 20 to 17, followed by Labor and Jewish Home at 16 each. Far-left Meretz would shoot up from 6 to 11 seats.

Analyst Jeremy Saltan (aka Knesset Jeremy) spoke to Arutz Sheva to make sense of all the figures, noting that the most surprising aspect of the poll is that Netanyahu's seats would mostly come from voters who currently support parties other than Likud. About 46% of those seats would come from current Yisrael Beytenu supporters, and most of the rest would come from center-left parties.

Finance Minister Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party would fall hard, dropping from 19 to 10 seats. Similarly, Yisrael Beytenu and Shas both would drop from 11 to 5. Hatnua would drop to 4 seats and Kadima would not make it in.

"In my opinion, 18 seats is not strong enough for Netanyahu to break off from Likud," assessed Saltan. "Even if it would be the biggest party, the numbers don't merit a breakaway."

Saltan also has some more warnings for Netanyahu.

Saltan warns that one must be cautious in interpreting scenario polls, as other factors - such as which MKs would follow Netanyahu into a new party, and which MK would take over the Likud - could highly influence the outcome.

The analyst notes that prior to Sharon's breakaway from Likud, voters didn't foresee that Kadima would be a mix-match of "refugee MKs" from various parties.

In response to the question of what Netanyahu should do if the Likud opposes a peace deal, 51% said he should accept the Likud's decision, while only 25% responded that he should create a new party.

Saltan remarks that this response may show that while the poll indicates Netanyahu would retain the largest party, this doesn't mean the majority of the Israeli public supports him breaking off to push through land withdrawals.

Feiglin for Likud leader anyone? That would probably drain enough votes from Jewish Home to make Likud the largest party....

Labels: Ariel Sharon, Binyamin Netanyahu, coalition government, Likud party, Middle East peace process, Moshe Feiglin

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:24 PM