PUBLICATION: ask me first ATTRIBUTION: N/A SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst, writes for Jane's SOURCE RELIABILITY: A ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1 SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a
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Ok, here's the really juicy part: There is a private Mexican company called Idra that the government funded to make UAVs. They are actually pretty high standard according to him and beat out the Israeli UAVs in testing. My friend was consulting Idra at the time and so he was privy to a lot of deals that were on the table. This is the story --
The Mexican government is now paying some $25m (? can get the #s later) for UAVs from Israel. Idra is basically like WTF, but the reason is basically corruption. There is a deal b/w the Mexican interior ministry and the Israelis where they're getting a hefty kickback.
This is the interesting part, though.
Idra had an offer to sell UAVs to Georgia (this was happening during and after the war). The reason Georgia needed the UAVs is because the UAVs they had bought from Israel had been compromised by the Russians. The Russians got the data link for the UAV (there is some suspicion that the Israelis after the war may have given this to them. Remember all the intense mtgs b/w the Israelis and the Russians where the Russians got the Israelis to back off of defense deals to Georgia in return for Russia backing off Iran?). Anyway, the Georgians gave Idra a picture of one of their crashed UAVs. The source explained though that if the UAV were targeted, it would have been blown to pieces pretty much (it's like the size of a car basically). But the picture he saw showed the UAV intact. He inquired and basically what happened was that the Russians acquired the data link to hack into the system and force the UAV into the ground. I think they may have crashed another one too.
So, since the Georgian UAVs were compromised, they then tried to sell them to the Azerbaijanis. I dont know if that deal went through. Idra backed off the deal to Georgia because they were advised that it would raise a lot of political complications between Mexico and Russia.
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PUBLICATION: No, but ask first ATTRIBUTION: N/A SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst, writes for Jane's SOURCE RELIABILITY: A ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1 SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a
Met with my Mexican source/friend again today and dude is getting shadier by the day. We followed up on our past discussion on Russia compromising the Israeli-made Georgian UAVs prior to the August war.
Here is what else I learned
One of the source's friends/colleagues -- formerly military i think but now does private defense deals on the side (it's Mexico) contacted him in July (prior to the Georgia war). Apparently the Georgians had contacted this guy because they were frantically looking for a replacement for the Israeli UAVs that were compromised....
Here is the most interesting part:
I inquired more about the compromised Israeli UAVs. What he explained was that Israel and Russia made a swap -- Israel gave Russia the 'data link' code for those specific UAVs; in return, Russia gave Israel the codes for Iran's Tor-M1s.
I asked about the S-300 (source tracks a lot of defense deals for Jane's). He doesn't think the Russians will give it to the Iranians. Besides, he said... Israel and Turkey have been collaborating very closely on the S-300s. He explain how about 8 years ago when Russia sold S-300s to Greece to base in Crete (which were supposed to protect Cyprus), Russia delivered those with a carrier so that Turkey wouldn't try to sink them. (things got a bit noisy so i may have misheard some of this). The gist of what he said is that Turkey has been cracking the S-300 since the Crete sale and has been sharing intel on the S-300 with the Israelis to ensure that they retain an advantage over Iran should Iran get them from the Russians.
as far as the Georgian UAVs go, they were interested in the Mexican ones because the Mexican UAVs had something (forget the name. it was auto-something' that basically backs up teh UAV system in case someone hacks into it and immediately returns the UAV to base.
Hmmm.
By the way, that's a Tor M-1 at the top.
UPDATE 1:41 AM
I forgot to add that Israel Radio has been reporting all evening that Georgia's Foreign Minister was here for a one-day 'secret' mission on Tuesday. But if Stratfor was correct and Georgia knew its UAV's had been compomrised, one has to wonder why he was here now. It may have had nothing to do with this.
Growing political hostility between Turkey and Israel has led to the Israeli military cancelling the export permit for UAVs and support services for Turkey. This will cost the firm that sold Turkey Heron UAVs some $90 million. The Israeli military has veto power over any arms exports and in this case believed it was too risky to complete the supplying of Turkey with UAV technology.
Meanwhile, Turkey has a Plan B. Two months ago, four American Predator UAVs, which had long operated in Iraq, were moved to Turkey. There, the American UAVs will be under the control of the Turkish security forces and assist in tracking Kurdish separatist (PKK) rebels. American UAVs based in Iraq had been helping the Turks track the PKK, but with all American forces gone from Iraq, the Turks were happy to give some of the Iraq-based Predators a new home.
Turkey has six Predator and four Reaper UAVs on order but there is a big backlog. Meanwhile, Turkey has been using ten Israeli Heron UAVs. This has been complicated because of growing Turkish hostility towards Israel. The latest accusations are that Israel is assisting the PKK and the Turkish media is having a good time with this sort of thing. After that sort of thing, the Israeli armed forces decided that the Turks could not be trusted. This was not a sudden change of mind. Last year Israeli UAV technicians and instructors were recalled from Turkey, where they were training Turkish troops on how to operate and maintain Israeli Heron UAVs. The Israeli personnel were withdrawn because it was believed they might be attacked.
The Turkish government has become increasingly anti-Israel in the last seven years. The Islamic politicians, who were elected in 2002, adopted an anti-Israel, anti-West attitude and strove to increase their stature in the Islamic world. Actually, the Turks are trying to regain the stature they used to have in the Islamic world. Until 1924, the Sultan of the Turks was the Caliph (technically the leader of all Moslems). But in the 1920s, Turkey turned itself into a secular state. Although Turkey became a major economic power in the Middle East, with one of the best educated populations, it was still hobbled by corruption and mismanagement. The current Islamic politicians promised to attack the corruption (which they have) and return religion to a central place in Turkish culture (in progress). This has upset a lot of secular Turks. But the Islamic politicians have made it fashionable to hate Israel.
The Turks ordered ten Herons seven years ago but delivery was delayed because of problems with the Turkish made sensor package. Meanwhile, the Turks were still fighting Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq and really needed those UAVs. Four years ago, the Israeli manufacturer made an interim deal to supply Israeli (without the Turkish sensors) Herons, along with support personnel, on a $10 million lease. But now those Herons are inoperable and the Turks have turned to locally made IHA UAVs, which are much less effective.
This is long overdue.
Now let's hope Israel comes full circle by assisting the PKK.
Here's video of an IDF Skylark I-LE unmanned aerial vehicle in action. The Skylark is small, lightweight, can be carried by one person and be set up to be ready to fly in less than eight minutes. It can fly for three hours, has live video-feed, and flies day and night, in any weather. It is extremely quiet too.
Let's go to the videotape.
Looks like one of those model planes we flew in the park when we were kids. Awesome.
Elbit had stated in a press release earlier this month that the UAVs were sold to an unidentified Latin America country. Several defense publications in the United States later pointed to Colombia, which sources said is interested in using the systems against rebels. Colombia previously has accused Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez of backing anti-government forces.
The Israeli-based Elbit is hoping the sale to Colombia will open up other markets in Latin America following its first export of the Hermes 900 to the Chilean air force last July.
Elbit sold its Hermes 900 tactical UAV, an advanced vehicle that can be deployed in difficult atmospheric conditions, fly as high as 33,000 feet and transmit images to a ground control station.
It also can take off and land automatically.
My guess is that it will likely be used against drug cartels and to defend Colombia's borders as well. This sounds like a win-win for both sides.
Report: Iran hijacked RQ-170 by reconfiguring its GPS
Based on an interview with an Iranian engineer, the Christian Science Monitor is reporting that Iran brought down the United States' RQ-170 drone by reconfiguring its GPS. Previous reports had claimed that the drone strayed from a mission in Afghanistan, and later that the drone had 'malfunctioned.'
Iran guided the CIA's "lost" stealth drone to an intact landing inside hostile territory by exploiting a navigational weakness long-known to the US military, according to an Iranian engineer now working on the captured drone's systems inside Iran.
Iranian electronic warfare specialists were able to cut off communications links of the American bat-wing RQ-170 Sentinel, says the engineer, who works for one of many Iranian military and civilian teams currently trying to unravel the drone’s stealth and intelligence secrets, and who could not be named for his safety.
Using knowledge gleaned from previous downed American drones and a technique proudly claimed by Iranian commanders in September, the Iranian specialists then reconfigured the drone's GPS coordinates to make it land in Iran at what the drone thought was its actual home base in Afghanistan.
"The GPS navigation is the weakest point," the Iranian engineer told the Monitor, giving the most detailed description yet published of Iran's "electronic ambush" of the highly classified US drone. "By putting noise [jamming] on the communications, you force the bird into autopilot. This is where the bird loses its brain."
The “spoofing” technique that the Iranians used – which took into account precise landing altitudes, as well as latitudinal and longitudinal data – made the drone “land on its own where we wanted it to, without having to crack the remote-control signals and communications” from the US control center, says the engineer.
...
Western military experts and a number of published papers on GPS spoofing indicate that the scenario described by the Iranian engineer is plausible.
"Even modern combat-grade GPS [is] very susceptible” to manipulation, says former US Navy electronic warfare specialist Robert Densmore, adding that it is “certainly possible” to recalibrate the GPS on a drone so that it flies on a different course. “I wouldn't say it's easy, but the technology is there.”
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US officials skeptical of Iran’s capabilities blame a malfunction, but so far can't explain how Iran acquired the drone intact. One American analyst ridiculed Iran’s capability, telling Defense News that the loss was “like dropping a Ferrari into an ox-cart technology culture.”
Yet Iran’s claims to the contrary resonate more in light of new details about how it brought down the drone – and other markers that signal growing electronic expertise.
A former senior Iranian official who asked not to be named said: "There are a lot of human resources in Iran.... Iran is not like Pakistan."
“Technologically, our distance from the Americans, the Zionists, and other advanced countries is not so far to make the downing of this plane seem like a dream for us … but it could be amazing for others,” deputy IRGC commander Gen. Hossein Salami said this week.
...
Perhaps as easily exploited are the GPS navigational systems upon which so much of the modern military depends.
"GPS signals are weak and can be easily outpunched [overridden] by poorly controlled signals from television towers, devices such as laptops and MP3 players, or even mobile satellite services," Andrew Dempster, a professor from the University of New South Wales School of Surveying and Spatial Information Systems, told a March conference on GPS vulnerability in Australia.
...
Iran displayed the drone on state-run TV last week, with a dent in the left wing and the undercarriage and landing gear hidden by anti-American banners.
The Iranian engineer explains why: "If you look at the location where we made it land and the bird's home base, they both have [almost] the same altitude," says the Iranian engineer. "There was a problem [of a few meters] with the exact altitude so the bird's underbelly was damaged in landing; that's why it was covered in the broadcast footage."
Prior to the disappearance of the stealth drone earlier this month, Iran’s electronic warfare capabilities were largely unknown – and often dismissed.
"We all feel drunk [with happiness] now," says the Iranian engineer. "Have you ever had a new laptop? Imagine that excitement multiplied many-fold." When the Revolutionary Guard first recovered the drone, they were aware it might be rigged to self-destruct, but they "were so excited they could not stay away."
This ought to make the US and Israel rethink the drones' GPS technology. And it ought to make the US, the Europeans and anyone else who thinks a nuclear Iran can be contained rethink their positions.
Iran claims to have four Israeli and three American drones
The English-language Tehran Times reports that Iran claims to have four Israeli drones that it has shot down, and that it says that it will put them on display, along with an American RQ-170 that mysteriously fell in Iranian territory two weeks ago and two other American drones.
According to the source close to the Tehran Times, the foreign unmanned aircraft that Iran has are four Israeli and three U.S. drones.
The most advanced spy drone in Iran’s possession, which was recently downed, is RQ-170 unmanned U.S. plane, which the Islamic Republic announced on December 4 had been brought down by the country’s armed forces.
The first video footage of the RQ-170 Sentinel, nick-named the Beast of Kandahar, was broadcast on Iranian television on December 8.
The drone had entered Iran from the eastern neighboring country of Afghanistan.
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, in a recent exclusive interview with Fox News, said that the stealth drone campaign along the Iran-Afghanistan border will “absolutely” continue.
The interview was published on December 13.
A number of countries have reportedly asked for permission to inspect the aircraft.
According to the source, the four Israeli drones that are now in Iran’s possession had violated the country’s airspace along the eastern borders, and the three U.S. unmanned aircraft had penetrated into the country’s airspace along either the eastern or southern border.
In an interview published on January 2, 2011, the commander of the Aerospace Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, announced that the Iranian military forces had brought down two foreign spy planes over the Persian Gulf, not mentioning the exact date and location of the events.
“They (the Westerners) have made limited aggressions against the country and we have shot down a number of their highly advanced spy planes so far. For example, we have brought down two spy planes over the Persian Gulf,” Hajizadeh said at the time.
“We have constant clashes with the enemy’s surveillance and reconnaissance aircrafts,” Hajizadeh stated, adding that the Iranian experts had reverse engineered and manufactured some of the planes that had been shot down.
In addition, Hajizadeh announced on June 28, 2011 that Russian experts had inspected the two foreign spy planes, which he said belonged to the United States.
Hajizadeh said at the time that Russian experts had requested Iran to inspect the places where the planes were shot down.
Seeing is believing. And in the case of the Israeli drones, they could well be drones that were sold to Turkey....
Remember when I said that the story about the US drone wandering off from Afghanistan didn't sound good? Well, it wasn't good.
According to a senior U.S. military source with intimate knowledge of the Sentinel drone, the aircraft likely "wandered" into Iranian air space after losing contact with its handlers and is presumed to be intact since it is programmed to fly level and find a place to land, rather than crashing.
"This is a big prize in terms of technology," a senior U.S. military source told Fox News.
The spy plane uses the same stealth technology as the drone used to monitor the compound during the raid that killed Usama bin Laden, U.S. military sources told Fox News on Monday.
Military sources confirmed that the Iranians have the RQ-170 drone, which is so advanced that the U.S. Air Force has not distributed even a photo of it. However, they did not say that the Iranians shot down the spy plane, as was reported by Iran's official IRNA news agency.
IRNA quoted an unidentified Iranian military official saying Sunday that the spy plane was shot down by Iran's armed forces and suffered minor damage.. The official also warned of strong and crushing response to any violations of the country's airspace by American drone aircraft.
...
The RQ-170 Sentinel is made by Lockheed Martin and is equipped with stealth technology. The $6 million stealth aircraft manufactured by Lockheed Martin has an RQ in its name to indicate it is unarmed.
Neither the Air Force nor manufacturer Lockheed Martin has released much information about the plane, dubbed "The Beast of Kandahar" in 2007 when its existence was finally confirmed.
"The RQ-170 Sentinel, a low observable UAV, was built by Lockheed Martin's Advanced Development Programs," Major Cristin L. Marposon, a public affairs officer for the USAF at the Pentagon, finally told FoxNews.com in 2009.
Sources said that the plane was designed for surveillance, not for attack.
Little is known about the plane beyond its intended goals, however, with no official images released or details about its composition. Leaked photographs purportedly of the craft depict a sleek, biwing design, intended to present a stealthier, harder to hit profile that other drones or other aircraft.
"The USAF has not issued any public release photos of the RQ-170," Melissa Dalton of Lockheed Martin told FoxNews.com
Early reports suggested that plane -- which supposedly has a wingspan of about 65 feet and can fly at around 50,000 feet -- would be made almost entirely without metal to help it dodge radar, and special paint provides additional stealth.
The explosion three weeks ago at a missile testing site outside of Tehran is being seen as a major setback for Iran's nuclear weapons program, according to a report in the New York Times (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).
In interviews, current and former officials said surveillance photos showed that the Iranian base was a central testing center for advanced solid-fuel missiles, an assessment backed by outside experts who have examined satellite photos showing that the base was almost completely leveled in the blast. Such missiles can be launched almost instantly, making them useful to Iran as a potential deterrent against pre-emptive attacks by Israel or the United States, and they are also better suited than older liquid-fuel designs for carrying warheads long distances.
It is still unclear what caused the explosion, with American officials saying they believe it was probably an accident, perhaps because of Iran’s inexperience with a volatile, dangerous technology. Iran declared it an accident, but subsequent discussions of the episode in the Iranian news media have referred to the chief of Iran’s missile program as one of the “martyrs” killed in the huge explosion. Some Iranian officials have talked of sabotage, but it is unclear whether that is based on evidence or surmise after several years in which Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated on Tehran’s streets, and a highly sophisticated computer worm has attacked its main uranium production facility.
Both American and Israeli officials, in discussing the explosion in recent days, showed little curiosity about its cause. “Anything that buys us time and delays the day when the Iranians might be able to mount a nuclear weapon on an accurate missile is a small victory,” one Western intelligence official who has been deeply involved in countering the Iranian nuclear program said this weekend. “At this point, we’ll take whatever we can get, however it happens.”
I'm all in favor of feigning disinterest in the cause of the explosion. But 'we'll take it however we can get it' doesn't sound like much of a plan to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. And that precisely is the problem: There is no plan.
And while the US is denying that Iran shot down a sophisticated US drone over the weekend, as Iranian media reported on Sunday (Hat Tip: Memeorandum), this doesn't sound too good either.
In a statement on Sunday, the American-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan said that the drone “to which the Iranians are referring may be a U.S. unarmed reconnaissance aircraft that had been flying a mission over western Afghanistan late last week.” It added that operators of the remotely controlled drone aircraft lost control of it “and had been working to determine its status.” The statement did not say what kind of drone was lost, or what might have caused the loss.
The statement would seem to suggest that the craft wrongly flew across the border into Iran. If a drone was used for intelligence gathering in Iran, it presumably would not belong to the military — since there are no open hostilities with Iran — but rather to the C.I.A. or another intelligence agency, acting under a presidential finding about the Iranian nuclear program.
Iran claims to have downed a US RQ-170 drone. It is threatening to respond 'outside our borders.'
Iran's military said on Sunday it had shot down a US reconnaissance drone aircraft in eastern Iran, a military source told state television.
"Iran's military has downed an intruding RQ-170 American drone in eastern Iran," Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam state television network quoted the unnamed source as saying.
"The spy drone, which has been downed with little damage, was seized by the Iranian armed forces."
The source said Iran's response to the downed US drone's violation of its airspace will not be limited to the country's borders.
"The Iranian military's response to the American spy drone's violation of our airspace will not be limited to Iran's borders any more," Iran's Arabic language Al Alam television quoted the military source as saying, without giving details.
Iran said in July it had shot down an unmanned US spy plane over the holy city of Qom, near its Fordu nuclear site.
Video: IAI vertical take off Ghost mini-UAV in action
Israel Aerospace Industries will debut its Ghost rotary-wing mini-UAV at the Association of Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) show in Washington next week (Hat Tip: Sunlight).
Designed for urban operations, the tandem-rotor Ghost weighs in at 9lb, is capable of automatic vertical take-off and landing, and can fly for up to 30min on two battery-powered rotary electric motors, providing quiet flight for special-operations mission, IAI says.
A system comprising two UAVs, batteries and command, control and communications equipment can be carried in backpacks by two soldiers,The ground control interface is based in computer-gaming principles and requires little training, IAI says.
It looks like a kid's toy with a remote control.
Let's go to the videotape.
The only spec I don't see here is how high it can go. From the video, it looks like 2-3 stories, but it could be higher. And as Sunlight points out in email, if this is what they're selling commercially, imagine what the IDF has. Heh.
It's been a little over a month since Brazil recognized the non-existent state of 'Palestine.' Now, Brazil is to be rewarded by being allowed to purchase top of the line Hermes 450 unmanned aerial vehicles.
Elbit Systems’ Brazilian subsidiary Aeroeletrônica Ltda. (AEL) has won a contract to supply additional Hermes 450 unmanned aerial systems to the Brazilian Air Force (FAB). The contract follows one year Brazilian operation of two Hermes 450 unmanned aircraft and one ground station under lease for one year.
Through this evaluation phase the Brazilian Air Force and Navy were defining their operational requirements for unmanned vehicles. It is assumed that the current order will comprise two additional systems fielding operational capabilities with the Air Force, bringing the total systems operated by the Brazilian forces to three. Further units are expected to be added in the future, as the FAB expands the services provided by unmanned systems. According to Elbit Systems, the project is a part of the Brazilian Air Forces’ objective to establish independent UAS capabilities, allowing for self-reliant operation and development of UAS in Brazil.
Are we that desperate for money that we have to prostitute ourselves in front of third-rate powers to provide them with top of the line military equipment? If these were software to operate restaurant payments systems or local telephone operations, I could understand. But why are we selling our best military equipment to countries that are at best indifferent to our continued existence? How long will it take until someone turns this equipment against us?
Remember when the US wouldn't allow us to sell military equipment to China? Why do we continue to sell to all comers?
This post requires setting the mood, so before we start, let's go to the videotape.
Once again, Israel let money take precedence over wise policy on Tuesday. On the same day that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was in Jericho declaring Russian support for a 'Palestinian' reichlet (for which 'Israeli officials' declared a Pyrrhic victory because Medvedev 'only' supported "the inalienable right of the Palestinian people to create its own state, which is independent, territorially integral and with a capital in east Jerusalem” and not a return to the June 4, 1967 'borders' in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 242), the money-deprived (ha!) Israeli government delivered 12 more unmanned aerial vehicles to the Russians at a cost of $400 million.
Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) has delivered a dozen unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia under a $400 million contract, as part of an Israeli effort to encourage the Russians not to provide Iran and Syria with advanced weapons systems that could threaten the Jewish state. [Encourage? How about at least an explicit commitment even though it would likely not be honored in the breach? CiJ].
“It is reasonable… to argue that Israel viewed UAV sales and joint military technology activity as a means of bringing influence to bear on Moscow,” Jane’s Defense Weekly observed.
The delivery stemmed from an April 2009 contract that marked Russia’s first purchase of a foreign weapons system. As part of the deal, IAI trained some 50 Russian pilots at its main facility near Tel Aviv.
“Israel is the world’s leading exporter of drones, with more than 1,000 sold in 42 countries,” said Jacques Chemia, chief engineer of IAI’s UAV division.
Iran claims to have shot down two American unmanned aerial vehicles (the picture is an Israeli Heron and not an American UAV) outside of Iran's borders.
Iran said Sunday that the two US pilotless spy planes that it claimed to have shot down were hit outside of Iran's air space, a local news agency reported.
The semi-official Fars news agency quoted Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, acting chief of the country's armed forces as saying "the planes were shot down outside of Iran's airspace."
Gen. Rashid did not say why Iran targeted the planes even though they weren't in the country's air space. He did say Iran has the remains of the planes in its possession.
On Saturday, Iran said it had determined the two aircraft were operated by the US after earlier this month announcing their downing.
The US Navy's 5th Fleet, which is based in the Gulf, said at the time that it had no reports of any aircraft downed recently.
Iran originally said the planes were violating its air space. It's not clear when they were downed but Iranian officials have hinted that they deliberately didn't make an announcement at the time to avoid tensions with the US.
Iran claims that it shot down two Western spy planes in the Persian Gulf. As usual, it's a lie.
Iran shot down two "western drone reconnaissance" aircraft in the Persian Gulf, a senior Revolutionary Guard commander was quoted as saying by the semi-official FARS News Agency on Sunday.
"Many spy planes and advanced planes of our enemies have been shot down... We have also shot down two spy planes in the Persian Gulf," said Amir Ali Hajizadeh. "But it is the first time we are announcing it."
The US Navy's 5th Fleet, which is based in the Gulf, said it has no reports of aircraft downed "recently."
Hajizadeh did not specify when the aircraft were shot down.
The Revolutionary Guard commander said that after shooting down the planes Iran had copied them and produced them in mass numbers through "reverse engineering."
Russia wanted drone technology in exchange for cancelling S-300 sale to Iran
Russia tried to trade the cancellation of the sale to Iran of the S-300 anti-missile defense system for access to Israeli technology on unmanned aerial vehicles.
A billion dollars and the cancelation of a missile deal with Iran – these were the things Russia promised Israel in return for advanced technology on drones, according to a secret cable leaked by WikiLeaks.
Under-Secretary of State Ellen Tauscher, whose name is signed on the cable, got the information from Amos Gilad, the head of the Defense Ministry's Policy and Political-Military Affairs, in 2009. The cable was sent a year before the Kremlin announced the deal would be annulled.
Russian arms sales to Syria and Lebanon a potential game changer
Yiftah Shapir, director of the military balance project at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, warns that Russian arms sales to Syria and Lebanon could shift the balance of power in the Middle East. According to Shapir, Russia's arms sales to those countries are a way of reasserting itself as a player in the region's struggles.
Moscow is set to sell Syria the Yakhont land to sea missile – a part of the Bastion missile system – which has a range of between 300 kilometers, and would be a “game changer” if it fell into the hands of Syria’s ally, Hizbullah, Shapir told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
“These missiles are supersonic, radar guided, and have additional navigational capabilities as they approach their target. They leave little time for response,” Shapir said. “The chances that it will end up in Lebanon are pretty high.
Shapir added that the advanced missile system would curtail the Israeli Navy’s freedom of operation around the Mediterranean, and enable Hizbullah to fire on warships near naval home ports like Haifa.
The Yakhont is pictured at the top of this post.
For its part, Syria is revamping its port in the coastal city of Tartus in order to allow Russian warships to dock there, giving Russia a presence in the area it has not enjoyed in the 20 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But what about Russia's relations with Israel? After all, when Russia was a big supplier to Egypt and Syria in the 1970's, they had no relations with us. But now they do. What happens to that?
But Moscow has not neglected its relationship with Jerusalem – Israel has been the only weapons exporter to sell arms to Russia since World War II, Shapir said, of the sale of Israeli UAVs to Russia in recent years.
At the same time, Shapir said, Russia is not planning on arming its military with Israeli weapons. “They want to copy the UAV technology and reproduce it. This was made clear during the sale,” he said.
“My greatest fear is that in the future, we could see this same UAV technology in the hands of enemies. This could reach Hizbullah, and that would change things. Russia has its own calculations,” Shapir added. “Personally, I think it was a bad idea to sell them the UAVs.”
It was also a bad idea to sell them to Turkey for the same reason. But no one else wanted to hear that at the time. Ouch.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
Wikileaks' Stratfor email dump is reporting that Israel gave Russia the codes for UAV's that Israel sold to Georgia in exchange for the codes for the Tor M-1 anti-aircraft systems that Russia sold to Iran. Again, I am putting this in chronological order: 
