The price of appeasement, Part 3
From the Kerry and Hagel trips here this weekend, it appears that the Obama administration is finally beginning to understand that Israel holds the key to helping the United States contain both Iran and Syria. The administration would apparently like to see Turkey get with the program, and play a role alongside Israel.
But after four and a half years in which President Obama declared Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan his 'best friend' in the region, that seems unlikely to happen. Erdogan has gotten too used to getting his way from the United States, and is likely to react like a
spoiled child who has his candy taken away if things start to go otherwise.
Repairing ties between Turkey and Israel would allow both countries to
work with America to combat threats from Iran and Syria, United States
Secretary of State John Kerry said on Sunday at an Istanbul press
conference.
Kerry spoke in advance of Monday’s meeting in Ankara
between an Israeli delegation led by National Security Adviser Yaakov
Amidror and Turkish officials, who hope to find a way to fully restore
diplomatic ties between the two countries.
Kerry asked Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to delay his planned trip to Gaza at
the end of May in order not to undermine reconciliation efforts between
Turkey and Israel, as well as Washington’s renewed drive to rekindle
frozen Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
If allies such as Israel
and Turkey put aside differences, they can stand up to mutual threats –
one of which is Iran, Kerry told reporters.
“Without any
question, this rapprochement puts us in a position to be able to not
allow us to be divided on something of as enormous consequence as the
potential of a nuclear program in Iran, which still has not been
adequately answered,” he said.
Similarly, he said that there are
“extremists who have come into Syria, they could threaten Israel, they
could threaten Turkey, they could threaten simply the integrity of the
state of Syria,” Kerry said.
“We have great mutual interests – Turkey, the United States and Israel – in that security arrangement,” Kerry said.
“So
there are huge reasons why it is beneficial for this rapprochement to
be completed as soon as possible, because it meets all of our strategic
needs and interests,” he said.
Kerry's words seem to be falling on deaf ears.
On Sunday, according to Hurriyet Daily News, Ankara rejected a report in
London’s Sunday Times that the Israeli delegation currently in Turkey
would ask to use a Turkish airbase to train for a possible attack on
Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“We have already said that the
normalization of our relations will be step by step. Talking about the
prospects of a military cooperation at this stage would be irrelevant.
We are not there yet. We haven’t even yet appointed a new ambassador to
Israel,” the Turkish official told Hurriyet.
During the press
conference, Kerry twice ducked questions about the Sunday Times report
and spoke instead of the need for Israel and Turkey to reestablish ties.
To
that end, he said, it would be best if Erdogan delayed his Gaza trip,
noting that such a visit could also have a negative effort on attempts
to revive Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, which have been largely
frozen since December 2008.
Read the whole thing.
It's going to take an awful lot for Turkey to come around - including probably the realization that there will be real consequences to its relations with the United States if it does not reconcile with Israel. But so far, the Obama administration has been unwilling to even intimate that such consequences might exist.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Iranian nuclear threat, John Kerry, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syrian uprising, Turkish obsession with Israel, Turkish-Israeli relations
Does Obama know how to pressure anyone other than Israel?
Jonathan Schanzer correctly points out that President Obama needs to pressure Turkish Prime Minister Recept Tayyip Erdogan to
stop helping Iran beat the sanctions.
Turkey is believed to have emerged in recent years as one of the
primary patrons of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. In December
2011, Erdoğan reportedly
"instructed the Ministry of Finance to allocate $300 million to be sent
to Hamas' government in Gaza." Since then, Turkey has reportedly
provided Hamas with funds for hospitals, mosques, and schools
in the Gaza Strip, with other resources to help rebuild the territory,
particularly after the Hamas war with Israel in November 2012.
Turkey is not Hamas' only sponsor, of course. There is Qatar, which
has been on a regional spending spree. And there is also Iran, which has
had a difficult time meeting its sponsorship obligations, thanks to
Western sanctions designed to derail its nuclear program.
Sanctions won't work, however, if Turkey has its way.
Iran has apparently been benefiting handsomely from Turkey's Halkbank. According to Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, "In essence, gold exports [to Iran] end up like payments for our natural gas purchases." In August 2012, according to Reuters,
"nearly $2 billion worth of gold was sent to Dubai on behalf of Iranian
buyers." Halkbank acknowledged that it was responsible for processing
the payments. Despite increased scrutiny, the Turkish newspaper Zaman noted in January that the Iranian "gas-for-gold" was still going.
Halkbank, meanwhile, has reportedly helped Iran on other scores. In February 2012, the Wall Street Journal
reported that Halkbank was processing "payments from third parties for
Iranian goods." This included "payments for Indian refiners unable to
pay Tehran for imported oil through their own banking system for fear of
retribution from Washington."
In November 2012, a Turkish banking watchdog announced Halkbank had curbed its illicit dealings. But the bank's website clearly boasts of a representative office in Tehran.
...
Turkey watchers quietly concede that more embarrassment is likely on
the horizon. From Hezbollah assets to money-changers and gold dealers
who do Iran's bidding to government backing of jihadists in Syria,
Turkey will remain an illicit finance problem for the foreseeable
future.
Thanks to his ability to deliver Israel's apology, Obama has increased leverage to reverse this trend.
Don't hold your breath waiting for this to happen. As the 'Palestinian' experience shows, the only party in the Middle East that Obama has demonstrated any desire to pressure is Israel.
And while he's at it. Obama might try to get Erdogan to stop playing the wounded
prima donna and get on with relations with Israel. After all, at Obama's behest, Netanyahu gave Erdogan all he wanted.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, Iran, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian nuclear threat, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish obsession with Israel, Turkish-Israeli relations
Israel cuts Turkey off from UAV technology
It's about time!
Israel has decided that it will no longer supply UAV technology to Turkey (Hat Tip:
Joshua I). This comes from a Turkish military website and as you read this, you will feel some of the tension between the Turkish military and the Erdogan regime.
Growing political hostility between Turkey and Israel has led to the Israeli military cancelling the export permit for UAVs and support services for Turkey. This will cost the firm that sold Turkey Heron UAVs some $90 million. The Israeli military has veto power over any arms exports and in this case believed it was too risky to complete the supplying of Turkey with UAV technology.
Meanwhile, Turkey has a Plan B. Two months ago, four American Predator UAVs, which had long operated in Iraq, were moved to Turkey. There, the American UAVs will be under the control of the Turkish security forces and assist in tracking Kurdish separatist (PKK) rebels. American UAVs based in Iraq had been helping the Turks track the PKK, but with all American forces gone from Iraq, the Turks were happy to give some of the Iraq-based Predators a new home.
Turkey has six Predator and four Reaper UAVs on order but there is a big backlog. Meanwhile, Turkey has been using ten Israeli Heron UAVs. This has been complicated because of growing Turkish hostility towards Israel. The latest accusations are that Israel is assisting the PKK and the Turkish media is having a good time with this sort of thing. After that sort of thing, the Israeli armed forces decided that the Turks could not be trusted. This was not a sudden change of mind. Last year Israeli UAV technicians and instructors were recalled from Turkey, where they were training Turkish troops on how to operate and maintain Israeli Heron UAVs. The Israeli personnel were withdrawn because it was believed they might be attacked.
The Turkish government has become increasingly anti-Israel in the last seven years. The Islamic politicians, who were elected in 2002, adopted an anti-Israel, anti-West attitude and strove to increase their stature in the Islamic world. Actually, the Turks are trying to regain the stature they used to have in the Islamic world. Until 1924, the Sultan of the Turks was the Caliph (technically the leader of all Moslems). But in the 1920s, Turkey turned itself into a secular state. Although Turkey became a major economic power in the Middle East, with one of the best educated populations, it was still hobbled by corruption and mismanagement. The current Islamic politicians promised to attack the corruption (which they have) and return religion to a central place in Turkish culture (in progress). This has upset a lot of secular Turks. But the Islamic politicians have made it fashionable to hate Israel.
The Turks ordered ten Herons seven years ago but delivery was delayed because of problems with the Turkish made sensor package. Meanwhile, the Turks were still fighting Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq and really needed those UAVs. Four years ago, the Israeli manufacturer made an interim deal to supply Israeli (without the Turkish sensors) Herons, along with support personnel, on a $10 million lease. But now those Herons are inoperable and the Turks have turned to locally made IHA UAVs, which are much less effective.
This is long overdue.
Now let's hope Israel comes full circle by assisting the PKK.
Labels: Turkish-Israeli relations, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
What is wrong with us?
Turkey's
Daily Hurriyet reports that Cemil Çiçek, the speaker of the Turkish parliament, has
declined an invitation to visit Israel from his Israeli counterpart, Ruby Rivlin (pictured) (Hat Tip:
Joshua I).
Çiçek thanked the Israeli parliamentary speaker for his "kind" invitation, but said such a visit could only occur after relations between the two countries have improved.
"I am not accepting the invitation for the time being," Çiçek said. "I am sure you know the conditions set by Turkey for the normalization of relations between the two countries."
Why does Israel's political echelon continue to insist on prostrating itself before the evil Turkish government? Why are our 'leaders' such masochists?
Labels: Ruby Rivlin, Turkish-Israeli relations
Israel and France get it but Obama doesn't
On Friday, I reported that Israel has
canceled a 2008 contract with Turkey under which it was to sell advanced intelligence systems to the Turkish Air Force. Daniel Pipes regards that cancellation as
the end of Israel's military alliance with Turkey, and adds the following comment, which is spot-on (Hat Tip:
Joshua I).
It's deeply unfortunate that the vagaries of Turkey's electoral politics permitted an Islamist party to dominate the country in 2002 – but at least the Israelis (and French) recognize this development, unlike the Americans, who persist in thinking all is well. (December 22, 2011)
Indeed.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, France, Turkish-Israeli relations
Defense Ministry kills sale of intelligence gathering system to Turkey
Despite a desire in Israel to improve relations with Turkey, the Defense Ministry has drawn the line at the
sale of a sophisticated intelligence gathering system whose technology it fears could fall into the hands of Iran or Syria.
The diplomatic crisis with Turkey intensified on Thursday after the Defense Ministry decided not to renew an export license for Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to sell advanced intelligence systems to the Turkish Air Force.
Defense officials said that Israel was working to improve ties with Turkey but that the Defense Ministry is "responsible for every product that receives an export license" and that it could not currently permit the delivery of the intelligence-gathering systems to Turkey.
"This has to do strictly with this system and should not impact the overall ties between the countries," an official said.
The $140 million deal, signed in 2009, was for the sale of the advanced infrared Lorop camera and associated equipment. The camera was developed by Elbit subsidiary El-Op and is installed in a pod which can be carried on combat aircraft. The systems were supposed to be delivered to Turkey in the coming months.
Both IAI and Elbit are in talks with Defense Ministry Dir.-Gen. Udi Shani about the expected economic implications and the possibility that they will be exposed to lawsuits by Turkey for reneging on the contract.
YNet adds:
The Defense Ministry also responded to the report, issuing the following statement: "As a rule, the Ministry of Defense does not detail all the considerations and information at the basis of its decision-making in setting defense exports' policy…decisions are undertaken on a professional basis, in line with security and diplomatic considerations."
The nixed deal was signed between Jerusalem and Ankara in 2008, with negotiations dating back to 2000.
Earlier, officials in the Defense Ministry and in Elbit Systems, the manufacturer of the system, confirmed the deal was called off. They spoke on condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivity of the matter. There was no immediate comment from Ankara.
So much for Turkey's 'brilliant' policy
bringing Israel to its knees.
Labels: Turkish-Israeli relations
Barak blasts Netanyahu over Turkish rift
Maybe it's time at long last to replace Ehud Barak with Boogie Yaalon as Defense Minister. While Prime Minister Netanyahu may have need Barak to cover his left flank when he first came into office, I'm not convinced he needs him any more. That's especially true when Barak does
things like this.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak joined the growing criticism against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's handling of the diplomatic crisis with Turkey, accusing the prime minister of reaching an unnecessary predicament.
In meetings behind closed doors Barak criticized Netanyahu's conduct in the flotilla affair, claiming that he could have reached an understanding with Ankara and prevent the escalation of tensions between the two countries, but instead succumbed to the pressure of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.
"Netanyahu was on his way to reach a compromise, but was thwarted by Lieberman," Barak told close associated.
The foreign minister, along with Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon, headed the camp that staunchly refused to issue an apology to Turkey over the killing of nine Turkish civilians during the 2010 IDF raid, while the defense minister and Minister Dan Meridor made unsuccessful attempts to persuade the Forum of top eight government ministers to opt for a more conciliatory plan of action.
What you see here, what you say here, let it stay here - eh Ehud? We all know you wanted to capitulate to the lowlife Turks - you didn't have to go whine to the media about it.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, Moshe Yaalon, Turkish-Israeli relations
Turkey turning back to the West?
All kinds of excuses have been given for the cancellation of the Mavi Marmara's participation in the upcoming flotilla of fools. But this Turkish analyst believes that what's really going on is something much bigger - a
redirection of Turkey toward the West out of fear of the consequences of the recent events in Syria.
However political analysts have now widely dismissed the IHH explanations. Following the wave of unrest affecting the region, especially with Syrian refugees who have ties with the Kurdish communities crossing the borders, the government, the government, fearing a clash back, has decided it should recalibrate its foreign policy to fall more in step with Western allies and pro-democracy movements.
"Of course the IHH will put forth some excuse ... because they cannot come out and say 'the government told us to'," said Ilter Turan, professor of political science at Istanbul's Bilgi University.
"Unpredictability in the Middle East is making Turkey feel the need to get closer to the [Western] allies, as it has done in Libya and now in Syria. So I would not be surprised if Turkey tones down its conflict with Israel." he added.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu apparently agrees. On Tuesday evening, Netanyahu issued a call to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to
improve relations.
Government sources on Tuesday confirmed that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu sent his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan a letter calling for a restoration of friendship between the two countries.
Netanyahu sent the letter after the Turkish elections, as is common practice.
In excerpts of the letter published by the Turkish daily Today's Zaman, Netanyahu wrote, “My government will be happy to work with the new Turkish government on finding a resolution to all outstanding issues between our countries, in the hope of re-establishing our cooperation and renewing the spirit of friendship which has characterized the relations between our peoples for many generations.”
The letter is seen in Jerusalem as a signal of efforts to try and improve relations between Turkey and Israel.
Government sources have said that Israel's position is that it regrets the deterioration in its relations with Turkey, and believes that a positive bilateral relationship between Jerusalem and Ankara serves both countries.
The government official said that Israel hopes it will be possible to "turn this thing around," and "create positive momentum in the relationship."
Hmmm.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Gaza plenty, IHH, Mavi Marmara, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish-Israeli relations
AKP platform ignores Israel, blames Armenia for impasse
The platform of the AKP, Turkey's ruling party, for the upcoming elections,
ignores Israel and blames Armenia for an impasse that has been reached in negotiations for Turkey and Armenia to reconcile their century-long differences.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose party is expected to win a third term in the upcoming June 12 elections, unveiled the manifesto, which Erdoğan called the AK Party's manifesto for 2023, on Saturday. The document summarizes strategy with respect to countries both in its neighborhood and beyond. But the document neglects to mention relations with Israel and ways to restore strained ties with the Jewish state. Relations between Turkey and Israel hit the lowest point ever last year after a lethal Israeli raid on the Mavi Marmara, carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza to break Israel's naval blockade.
Eight Turks and one Turkish-American were killed by Israeli commandos during the raid. Turkey requests an official apology and compensation for families of the victims. Israel says its commandos acted in self-defense. The party’s manifesto, which includes its foreign policy vision, attaches importance to its growing relations with Middle Eastern countries and stresses ties with the US among its primary priorities, while failing to mention Israel.
So much for those who believe that the upcoming elections indicate that the AKP is moderating. As to Armenia, the Turks continue to eschew any responsibility for the genocide their great grandparents carried out nearly a century ago.
“Our position with respect to the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and genocide allegations is clear. The AK Party will not allow any solution not based on fairness and justice to be imposed on Turkey. With regard to reciprocal and simultaneous steps for a solution, Turkey will not refrain from doing what it needs to do,” the document notes.
Turkey and Armenia signed twin protocols in 2009 in Zurich to bury a century of hostilities, which also included opening of borders between Turkey and Armenia if their parliaments ratified the protocols. Faced with Azerbaijan’s fierce opposition, Turkey said Armenia needs to display a constructive position on Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks and pegged the ratification of the protocols to a possible breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks.
Armenia suspended the process on April 22 last year and blamed Turkey for blocking the process.
Turkey is sounding more Islamist by the minute. After all, the Arab Muslim states are always pushing for 'just' solutions as a means for covering up their continued desire to wipe Israel out. What could go wrong?
Labels: AKP, Armenian genocide, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey, Turkish-Israeli relations
Time to stop trading with Turkey
At what point will our survival and our morality take precedence over making money? When Jews outside of Israel see Israel being threatened those kinds of questions aren't impacting them directly and therefore they don't always have clear answers. But here in Israel, where we're directly impacted, one would think that the answers to those kinds of questions would be completely clear. Take Turkey for instance.
Turkey has acted like an enemy to us quite openly for more than two years. It is
facilitating Iran's trade with the West and with other World markets (Hat Tip:
Joshua I). And yet, Israel
continues to trade with Turkey as if we were still living five years ago when Turkey was an ally.
Just as diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey appear to have hit rock bottom, bilateral trade between Israel and Turkey have reached an all-time high, indicating that commercial interests can trump political differences.
Turkey pulled out its ambassador from Israel almost a year ago and when Israel’s current envoy to Ankara leaves this summer there is no plan to fill his slot. That is in order to “spare us the embarrassment of having the Turks reject him,” in the words of one Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
...
Speaking on condition of anonymity, Israeli officials told The Media Line that the government of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has toned down its anti-Israel rhetoric lately, a move they see linked to the upcoming national elections June 12. Ergodan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) is going after moderate votes, they said.
“Our understanding is that they are turning toward the center which it turns out didn’t like all this Israel bashing. It only made the AKP look like extremists,” said one official.
Israel has also been cautiously buoyed by the Turkish authorities’ decision in late March to intercept an Iranian cargo jet bound for Syria and force it to land at a Turkish air base. The Turks discovered weapons on board that were suspected to bound for Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi'ite terrorist group and Israeli foe. Turkey filed a complaint with the United Nations.
Even as diplomatic ties chilled during 2010, bilateral trade reached $3.5 billion, up from $1.3 billion just a decade ago. The uptrend has continued into this year. Israel imported some $354 million of Turkish goods in January-February, up from $282 million one year earlier. Meanwhile, Israeli exports to Turkey reached $302 million in the first two months of the year, up from $170 million during the same time in 2010.
Turkey’s main exports to Israel are land vehicles, construction materials, electronic devices, textiles and accessories. Israel exports to Turkey plastics, chemicals and agriculture products.
Ordinary Israelis, however, remain skittish about Turkey. Once a prime destination for Israelis holiday makers, travel to Turkey has plummeted. This year's Passover holiday season has seen travel there drop by nearly 90% from last year, when more than 15,000 Israelis visited Turkish resorts.
With the entire region in the midst of revolutionary upheaval, the democracies of Turkey and Israel have been coveted islands of calm. Washington has not hidden its displeasure with the failure of Ankara and Jerusalem, two of their key allies, to reconcile their differences.
Read the whole thing.
The way I see this, there's currently a lull in the diplomatic war between Israel and Turkey, and after the Turkish elections, when the AKP need not worry about appearing 'extreme,' things will go back to where they were last June.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Mavi Marmara, Turkey, Turkish obsession with Israel, Turkish-Israeli relations
Disgusting: Turkey's 'photo of the year' a bleeding IDF soldier
What a despicable excuse for a country.
This photo (which is shown uncensored on Turkish web sites) of a beaten and bloodied IDF soldier aboard the Mavi Marmara won the '
photo of the year' in the news category in Turkey (Hat Tip:
Joshua I).
Photojournalism award, Turkish-style: The picture of a bleeding IDF soldier aboard the Marmara won Turkey's 2010 Photo of the Year Award in the News category; the contest was held by the Turkish photojournalism association.
...
The photograph shows a beaten up IDF soldier with his face and head bloodied while three Marmara passengers grab him and twisting his arm. The picture was shot by a Turkish photographer who hid copies in a hidden pocket and managed to smuggle them out of Israel.
Turkish media outlets did not blur the blood stains or the Israeli soldier's face.
The winning pictures were chosen out of 1,632 photos in six different categories. Prizes were handed out in the beginning of the month with Turkey's parliament speaker, deputy prime minister and various parliamentarians among those in attendance.
What despicable excuses for human beings....
UPDATE 7:28 PMThe original picture (with the IDF soldier's face showing) is
here.
Labels: Ahmet Davutoglu, Mavi Marmara, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish obsession with Israel, Turkish-Israeli relations
Does Turkey hate Israel?
Journalist and author Claire Berlinski was recently in Israel for a visit and filed
this exclusive report for Powerline (some guys have all the luck). I haven't clicked through all the links yet, but
this one ought to intrigue you.
It's unbearable to me that the formerly close relationship between Turkey and Israel has been injured so deeply. It makes no sense strategically, for Turkey or for Israel. And it makes no sense culturally. These countries have far more in common than they realize. They are both new nation-states--remember, the Turkish Republic is almost as young as the state of Israel, both products of the upheavals of the first half of the 20th century, and both deeply insecure on the world stage because of it. They are both multi-ethnic democracies. One has a Muslim minority; the other a Jewish minority; both are remarkably tolerant in a region not known for tolerance; both are secular states; both face similar security concerns in a dangerous region. Both are struggling to figure out how to reconcile the concept of a secularism with the piety of its citizens; both are countries with young, vibrant, populations. Both countries have universal conscription, and not one mother in either country is happy to pack her son off to the army. I'm not pointing this out because I'm corny and sentimental: It's just a fact.
The Turks you've seen in the videos howling about their longing to be martyrs for the jihad? They are not the majority, you've just got to trust me. It's a country of some 70 million people; any country this big will have its nuts. These nuts have a terrific media strategy, so they end up looking like the real face of Turkey. They're not. Ordinary Turks don't have a media strategy. They have jobs--oftentimes hard, demanding jobs--and families.
Read the whole thing.
I really, really wish Claire were right, but with the Turkish government (Erdogan, Gul, Davotuglu and Arnc all come to mind) on a crusade against Israel for the last two years or so, we may be lucky that the Turks
consider the US a bigger enemy than they consider us.
Unfortunately, it sounds like the average Turk is being bombarded with it on all sides. But that bombardment has had an effect. In the recent BBC '
Who Loves Me' (pdf link) poll, just 9% of Turks viewed Israel as having a positive influence on the World, while 77% said we have a negative influence. The only country polled where our net number was worse was Egypt.
Unfortunately, the real face of Turkey seems to hate Israel. I agree with her that the reverse is not true.
Labels: Turkish obsession with Israel, Turkish-Israeli relations
