Erdogan denies he has two years left to live
You may recall that I reported
here that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has colorectal cancer. One of the Startfor email series leaked by Wikileaks claims that Erdogan has
only two years to live. Erdogan has now taken the trouble to
deny that he only has two years left.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday dismissed as "impudent" rumors about his health based on an e-mail released by WikiLeaks claiming that he had only two years to live.
"Allah is the owner of our soul," Erdogan told a meeting of his ruling AKP party in Ankara. "It is Allah and only Allah who will decide how long I will live."
The prime minister, who turned 58 a few weeks ago, has undergone two successive operations on his intestinal system, one on November 26 last year and the second on February 10.
A long period of convalescence after the first operation has prevented Erdogan from travelling overseas, while leading many to speculate on his state of health.
But Erdogan has repeatedly said that the surgeons had taken out polyps from his intestines and there had been no trace of cancer.
Polyps can be cancerous or non-cancerous. The fact that there were polyps doesn't prove that there was no cancer - in fact, they make it more likely that there was cancer than would have been the case if there were nothing.
Erdogan is scheduled to travel to South Korea on March 26 and 27 and to Iran on March 28. Let's see if he makes those trips.
Labels: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Stratfor, Wikileaks
Wikileaks (Stratfor): Israel Defense Intelligence like Stratfor?
A Stratfor email released by Wikileaks gives the impression that Stratfor operates a lot like
Israel's Defense Intelligence agency.
On 12/15/11 10:30 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:
Source is an old friend from college who is now a major in IDF intelligence. Had not seen one another in years. Very secretive of what they do; seemed pretty suspicious about what exactly I was doing in Israel. Nothing too groundbreaking, just some interesting observations.
...
- Opsec at IDI (Israel Defense Intelligence) seems pretty extreme. If you try to email this person, you don't hear back for a month, minimum - usually even longer. Reason is because no websites that have passwords are allowed at work. Emails for internal comms only.
- Source is in D.C. frequently for meetings with DIA. When I asked if they are often trained by the Americans, the response was a smirk and, "We like to think we don't need the Americans to train us." IDI, source said, is "more creative" than American counterparts. The way they work sounded similar in philosophy to STRATFOR, actually. For example, there is a specific officer who is referred to as the "Devil's advocate" at the IDI offices. This person is allowed to challenge any random paper on any topic, produced by someone of any rank. If a paper is written that says, hypothetically, that Bashar will fall in three weeks, the Devil's advocate can then say, "Okay, I'm challenging this assertion. Now, I want you to write the exact opposite argument and play out the logic." Source did not deny that they, too, can fall prey to groupthink like any other intelligence body, but was a firm believe that this was a good way to avoid it.
- "Where are the moderates in the Muslim world?" That was the theme of the conversation on source's end. If you listen to this person, you come away with the notion that the Israelis seem extremely unnerved about the future of the region, with the primary focus being on the Iranian threat. (Again, this is not groundbreaking insight.)
- Source openly said that none of this shit would be happening right now had Obama not abandoned Mubarak like he did. When I later criticized Bush for shattering the balance of power in the PG, source shot back, "Well what about Obama?" I said that Obama had maintained the same FP as Bush, a claim with which the source agreed. And yet the source loves Bush's policies and hates Obama's. Israelis are not a fan
of Barack.
- Because Obama abandoned Mubarak, source lamented the fact that Egypt was no longer the leader of the Arab world. This does not mean source believes the MB is on the verge of completely taking power in Egypt - (I specifically asked if that was the belief the IDI holds) - but it does mean that there is a steep drop in faith that the SCAF has ability to maintain the status quo. Overall I found the message on Egypt a bit confusing.
Since they don't allow access to websites with passwords, at least the IDI will (hopefully) avoid being hacked by Wikileaks like Stratfor was. I suspect that the IDI would be a lot more interesting.
Elder has an amusing piece on a Maan reporter whom the source calls '
batsh*t insane.'
Here's the inside scoop on Nasser and the key to understanding how Maan remains the only truly independent news source in Palestine: He's a decades long supporter of the Popular Front, was president of the PFLP at Bethlehem Univ. and went to jail six years for it.
As a PFLP supporter, he detests organized religion and its mixing in politics (Hamas) just as much as he hates materialism/capitalism/corruption (Fatah). (On that second point, he's probably the most beloved media personality in the country and has huge influence, yet he never thought to move out of the refugee camp where he was born. Badass.)
The other important thing to know about Nasser, more important than anything else I just mentioned, is that he is batshit insane. Really do love the guy but something is off up there, trust me. He will spout out the craziest theories every once in a while.
Heh.
Labels: intelligence, Stratfor, Wikileaks
Wikileaks (Stratfor) CIA alive and well in Lebanon?
Some of you may recall that back in November, it was reported that several CIA operatives in Lebanon were '
outed,' and that as a result it was reported that the crucial
CIA listening post in Beirut was shut down. Stratfor documents released by Wikileaks on Wednesday report that the station is still alive and well, and that the claim that the CIA was shut down was one that was made to
get Hezbullah off the CIA's back.
Email-ID 5287911
Date 2011-11-21 16:10:50
From Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com
To burton@stratfor.com, alfano@stratfor.com, korena.zucha@stratfor.com
Some of this feels like disinfo. If the CIA lost a few people in Beirut,
it would be reasonable for them to send a few "current and former US
Officials" to the AP to "leak" a story that the all US coverage of Hez has
been "wiped out" -- best way to stop the search for more informants.
On 11/21/11 10:03 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Goldman, Adam"
Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2011 08:56:44 -0600 (CST)
To: Fred Burton
Subject: RE: CIA spies outed in Lebanon
Thanks! Been working on this for a while. It's bad. CIA's Hezbollah
coverage has been wiped out.
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Monday, November 21, 2011 8:05 AM
To: Goldman, Adam
Subject: Fwd: CIA spies outed in Lebanon
Great work Adam!
AP Exclusive: Spies Outed, CIA Suffers In Lebanon
http://www.salon.com/2011/11/21/ap_exclusive_spies_outed_cia_suffers_in_lebanon_2/
Monday, Nov 21, 2011 10:17 AM 11:15:26 GMT+0200
By Adam Goldman and Matt Apuzzo, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) - The CIA's operations in Lebanon have been badly
damaged after Hezbollah identified and captured a number of U.S. spies
recently, current and former U.S. officials told The Associated Press.
The intelligence debacle is particularly troubling because the CIA saw
it coming.
The CIA may not have anyone on the ground in Beirut (or more likely they do), but you can bet that the Mossad does. Heh.
Labels: Beirut, CIA, Stratfor, Wikileaks
Wikileaks (Stratfor): Israel traded Georgian UAV codes to Russia for Iranian Tor M-1 codes, Turkey gave Israel S-300 codes
Wikileaks' Stratfor email dump is reporting that Israel gave Russia the codes for UAV's that Israel sold to Georgia in exchange for the
codes for the Tor M-1 anti-aircraft systems that Russia sold to Iran. Again, I am putting this in chronological order:
PUBLICATION: ask me first
ATTRIBUTION: N/A
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst,
writes for Jane's
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a
...
Ok, here's the really juicy part:
There is a private Mexican company called Idra that the government funded
to make UAVs. They are actually pretty high standard according to him and
beat out the Israeli UAVs in testing. My friend was consulting Idra at the
time and so he was privy to a lot of deals that were on the table. This is
the story --
The Mexican government is now paying some $25m (? can get the #s later)
for UAVs from Israel. Idra is basically like WTF, but the reason is
basically corruption. There is a deal b/w the Mexican interior ministry
and the Israelis where they're getting a hefty kickback.
This is the interesting part, though.
Idra had an offer to sell UAVs to Georgia (this was happening during and
after the war). The reason Georgia needed the UAVs is because the UAVs
they had bought from Israel had been compromised by the Russians. The
Russians got the data link for the UAV (there is some suspicion that the
Israelis after the war may have given this to them. Remember all the
intense mtgs b/w the Israelis and the Russians where the Russians got the
Israelis to back off of defense deals to Georgia in return for Russia
backing off Iran?). Anyway, the Georgians gave Idra a picture of one of
their crashed UAVs. The source explained though that if the UAV were
targeted, it would have been blown to pieces pretty much (it's like the
size of a car basically). But the picture he saw showed the UAV intact. He
inquired and basically what happened was that the Russians acquired the
data link to hack into the system and force the UAV into the ground. I
think they may have crashed another one too.
So, since the Georgian UAVs were compromised, they then tried to sell them
to the Azerbaijanis. I dont know if that deal went through. Idra backed
off the deal to Georgia because they were advised that it would raise a
lot of political complications between Mexico and Russia.
...
PUBLICATION: No, but ask first
ATTRIBUTION: N/A
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst,
writes for Jane's
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a
Met with my Mexican source/friend again today and dude is getting shadier
by the day. We followed up on our past discussion on Russia compromising
the Israeli-made Georgian UAVs prior to the August war.
Here is what else I learned
One of the source's friends/colleagues -- formerly military i think but
now does private defense deals on the side (it's Mexico) contacted him in
July (prior to the Georgia war). Apparently the Georgians had contacted
this guy because they were frantically looking for a replacement for the
Israeli UAVs that were compromised....
Here is the most interesting part:
I inquired more about the compromised Israeli UAVs. What he explained was
that Israel and Russia made a swap -- Israel gave Russia the 'data link'
code for those specific UAVs; in return, Russia gave Israel the codes for
Iran's Tor-M1s.
I asked about the S-300 (source tracks a lot of defense deals for Jane's).
He doesn't think the Russians will give it to the Iranians. Besides, he
said... Israel and Turkey have been collaborating very closely on the
S-300s. He explain how about 8 years ago when Russia sold S-300s to Greece
to base in Crete (which were supposed to protect Cyprus), Russia delivered
those with a carrier so that Turkey wouldn't try to sink them. (things got
a bit noisy so i may have misheard some of this). The gist of what he said
is that Turkey has been cracking the S-300 since the Crete sale and has
been sharing intel on the S-300 with the Israelis to ensure that they
retain an advantage over Iran should Iran get them from the Russians.
as far as the Georgian UAVs go, they were interested in the Mexican ones
because the Mexican UAVs had something (forget the name. it was
auto-something' that basically backs up teh UAV system in case someone
hacks into it and immediately returns the UAV to base.
Hmmm.
By the way, that's a Tor M-1 at the top.
UPDATE 1:41 AMI forgot to add that Israel Radio has been reporting all evening that Georgia's Foreign Minister was here for a one-day 'secret' mission on Tuesday. But if Stratfor was correct and Georgia knew its UAV's had been compomrised, one has to wonder why he was here now. It may have had nothing to do with this.
UPDATE 5:07 PMPhoto updated (thanks to
Asher G).
Labels: Georgia, Iran, Israel, Mexico, Russia, S-300 missile defense system, Stratfor, Tor M-1, Turkey, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Wikileaks
Wikileaks (Stratfor): Pakistan attempts to influence US policy, blasts Israel
Wikileaks intercepts Stratfor emails that indicate that Pakistan -
where they love Barack Hussein Obama (and where Korans are
dumped in raw sewage canals without any apologies) - attempted to
influence US policy toward India and Israel.
Source Code: PK700
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former Pakistani intelligence officer
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
SOURCE HANDLER: Fred
Pakistan bashing continues. How convenient it is to ignore the huge size of India cocuss and the campaign funding they receive from India through Indian Americans acting as conduits. No one talks about the covert and overt influence israel enjoys through funding American congressmen and the control Israel has on American policies through coercion and fear of Jewish lobby. Since FBI is involved the blessing of US administration is obvious. Unfortunately this PAK bashing is earning hatred for US in a normally pro US country specially it's Armed Forces. This campaign to browbeat or pressurize Pakistan will have an opposite effect in a society where respect is valued and enmities leave memories for generations
By the way, the email was written two months after the United States killed Osama Bin Laden a few blocks away from Pakistan's intelligence agency's headquarters. Maybe there was a reason people in the US were 'bashing' Pakistan?
Labels: Israel, Pakistan, Stratfor, Wikileaks
Wikileaks (Stratfor) (3 months before Mavi Marmara): 'Turkey looking to break with US and Israel'
Three months before the Mavi Marmara incident,
Turkey was looking to break with both Israel and the United States, according to an email allegedly written by people at Stratfor and published by Wikileaks (again I am turning it around to chronological order).
George Friedman wrote:
Turkey would break with israel and the united states. It would be an opportunity erdogan is looking for.
Iran would become more visible but not more powerful. A year after the attack its underlying weakness would still be there and its dependence on turkey greater.
In my view the ourtcome of this is turkish power. But remeber, my insight is not that israel will attack. Its that kissinger thinks they will attack. Huge difference.
$
***
On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:04 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:
Erdogan is looking to break with the US and Israel? Are there other possible places he could do this, if he is actively trying?
***
On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:14 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:
I meant to say, if not for Iran, would he look for other places/weaknesses in the US/Israel relationship to cause a break? And, if he did break with these two, would it mean necessarily that he would move closer to Russia?
Reva Bhalla wrote:
US and Israel are the ones that matter. it's about redefining Turkey's role as an independent power
***
No wonder Medvedev has 2 trips planned to Turkey this spring..... Russia will try to take advantage.
Reva Bhalla wrote:
yes... turkey isn't only using Iran as the cause for the break. look at turkey's public outrage over the Israeli offensive in Gaza as an example. Turkey is already pretty tight with Russia, but this doesn't mean Turkey has to necessarily get closer to Russia. Turkey will play nice with the Russians but also wants to show it can play on its own
And as a result, Obama is kissing up to Erdogan.
Could it be that Obama is giving Turkey an outsize role among US allies in order to keep it out of the Russian court? Nah, Obama wouldn't be shrewd enough to do something like that. It's much more likely he's courting Turkey because it's Islamist.
Labels: Mavi Marmara, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Stratfor, Turkey, Wikileaks
'Iran's nuclear infrastructure has been destroyed'
Wikileaks has released emails from Stratfor that expanded on a report that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak hailed a November munitions blast in Iran as having
destroyed Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Here are some of the emails from the chain (I am putting them in chronological order rather than the reverse chronological order that appears at the link).
On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
Code: IL701
Publication: for background
Attribution: none
Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
Source reliability: Still testing
Item credibility: untested
Source handler: Fred
Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis were preparing a military offensive against Iran. Response:
I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago. The current "let's bomb Iran" campaign was ordered by the EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home
financial problems. It plays also well for the US since Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report.
The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza and strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.
...
On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy crisis?!
How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?
Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and from the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?
Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been experiencing every day for over a year?!
Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't even see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.
...
From: "Chris Farnham"
To: "Alpha List"
Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
blast in Iran
I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked quite seriously here.
The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put out there for some reason or another and is now playing in to what we are seeing.
Insight below:
Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear infrastructure had been destroyed. Source response:
Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense and nuclear research projects.
Despite the reports in the media and against any public knowledge, the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is the axis India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis US-Germany-France-China is against such an attack from obvious reasons. Not many people know that Russia is one of Israel's largest military partners and India is Israel's largest client.
If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices. On the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from an oil crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans, the attack on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so destructive that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and the government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict.
In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to launch a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the
commandos destroyed a significant part of it.
If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will have political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very hard to believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless they act as a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its proxies attack first. With the revealed of the new UN report the Israelis have green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon now with the entire world watching Iran. I think that we should expect escalations on these fronts rather than an Israeli attack on Iran.
...
On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.
If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a bomb we are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about anything.
Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted. How come if its not in OS we nash our teeth? Intelligence agencies exist to have sources. That is what we are.
Those don't sound very definitive, do they? Hmmmm.
Labels: Ehud Barak, Iranian nuclear threat, Stratfor, Wikileaks
Wikileaks releasing think tank emails, claims Haaretz reporter acted as 'information mule'
Wikileaks has released emails from Startfor, a well-known security think tank.
Israel is prominently featured in the emails.
Today, Monday 27 February, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files – more than five million emails from the Texas-headquartered “global intelligence” company Stratfor. The emails date from between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal’s Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defense Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor’s web of informers, pay-off structure, payment-laundering techniques and psychological methods....
You can find Wikileaks' full description of Stratfor's methods
here. This is the most curious part:
The Stratfor emails reveal a company that cultivates close ties with US government agencies and employs former US government staff. It is preparing the 3-year Forecast for the Commandant of the US Marine Corps, and it trains US marines and "other government intelligence agencies" in "becoming government Stratfors". Stratfor’s Vice-President for Intelligence, Fred Burton, was formerly a special agent with the US State Department’s Diplomatic Security Service and was their Deputy Chief of the counterterrorism division. Despite the governmental ties, Stratfor and similar companies operate in complete secrecy with no political oversight or accountability. Stratfor claims that it operates "without ideology, agenda or national bias", yet the emails reveal private intelligence staff who align themselves closely with US government policies and channel tips to the Mossad – including through an information mule in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Yossi Melman, who conspired with Guardian journalist David Leigh to secretly, and in violation of WikiLeaks’ contract with the Guardian, move WikiLeaks US diplomatic cables to Israel.
Hmmm.
JPost has
Stratfor's response:
Stratfor in a statement shortly after midnight EST (0500 GMT) said the release of its stolen emails was an attempt to silence and intimidate it.
It said it would not be cowed under the leadership of George Friedman, Stratfor's founder and chief executive officer. It said Friedman had not resigned as CEO, contrary to a bogus email circulating on the Internet.
Some of the emails being published "may be forged or altered to include inaccuracies; some may be authentic," the company statement said.
"We will not validate either. Nor will we explain the thinking that went into them. Having had our property stolen, we will not be victimized twice by submitting to questioning about them," the statement said.
WikiLeaks did not say how it had acquired access to the vast haul of internal and external correspondence of the Austin, Texas company, formally known as Strategic Forecasting Inc.
Hackers linked to the loosely organized Anonymous hackers group said at the beginning of the year they had stolen the email correspondence of some 100 of the firm's employees. The group said it planned to publish the data so the public would know the "truth" about Stratfor operations.
Stratfor describes itself as a subscription-based publisher of geopolitical analysis with an intelligence-based approach to gathering information.
WikiLeaks and Anonymous maintain the emails will expose dark secrets about the company. Stratfor said in its statement it had worked hard to build "good sources" in many countries, "as any publisher of global geopolitical analysis would do."
In December, hackers broke into Stratfor's data systems and stole a large number of company emails.
It seems to me that Wikileaks may be trying to help the dark forces of evil, like Iran and Syria, by releasing this sort of thing.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Haaretz, Stratfor, Wikileaks
You may recall that I reported here that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has colorectal cancer. One of the Startfor email series leaked by Wikileaks claims that Erdogan has only two years to live. Erdogan has now taken the trouble to deny that he only has two years left. 
