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Monday, January 21, 2013

Likud continues in freefall? Down to 29?

I was under the impression that the law doesn't allow the publication of poll results within four days of the election. (And indeed, newscaster Ayala Hasson has tweeted in Hebrew) warning against 'spin' polls). But someone named Nitay Peretz (whom I don't know, but he was retweeted by Barak Ravid, who is a columnist for Haaretz) has posted a new Smith Poll, and if these results are in the ballpark they are shocking (link in Hebrew).

The Likud has now declined to 29 mandates.

Tied for second place are Jewish Home and Yair Lapid with 16 each.

Labor has 15.

Shas has 10.

The Tzipi Livni party, Meretz and United Torah Judaism each have 6.

Kadima and Otzma have 3 each.

The three Arab parties combine for 10.

According to these results, the scenario I posed this morning - where Lapid, Labor and Livni go to President Peres and say 'we have more mandates than Likud and we are acting together, so let us have the first shot at forming the next government' - becomes more plausible (37-29). With Meretz and Kadima, they would even have 46. Shas under Deri could conceivably go in with them and that makes 56.... You need 61 to govern.

It also means that Likud could form a coalition with Labor, Lapid and Livni and have 66 mandates.... Of course, if it went that way, Livni would have to give up on being Prime Minister, at least for now.

What could go wrong?

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