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Monday, January 21, 2013

For whom are Israelis really voting?

Jason Elbaum points out that when Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday, regardless of the party for whom they vote, they will be voting to give a seat to one party while taking it away from another. Who are the potential MK's who might find themselves elected on Wednesday morning based on how the vote goes? Jason has a list.

I've gone through the lists of candidates and extracted those in positions on the margins of electability, based on the last week's worth of published polls. Regardless of who heads the party, these are the people most likely to be affected by your vote. In the unlikely chance that your vote actually tips a Knesset seat from one party to another, the candidate who does or doesn't get in as a result will probably be on this list.

In some sense, these are the people you're really voting for or against, so pay attention.

I've included a few parties which are unlikely to cross the electoral threshold, but which polls give the greatest chance to. In order of likelihood (highest first), these are: Kadima, Otzma L'yisrael, Am Shalem, Aleh Yarok, Eretz Hadasha. If your vote tips one of these parties across the 2% mark, you'll bring candidates 1 and 2 into the Knesset at one fell swoop.

Finally, I should note the obvious: The identity of the marginal candidate you might elect is far from the only legitimate consideration in voting. The size of the party and its effect on coalition negotiations and legislative accomplishments is no less significant. But ultimately, the direct impact of your vote is in determining who's in and who's out. So it seems worthwhile knowing who that is.
Read the whole thing.

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