Israel Matzav

Obama may be wishing Israel weren't a democracy

President Obama would love to impose the 1949 armistice lines on Israel as a border with a 'Palestinian' reichlet. But two recent polls show that Israelis, who live in a Democratic country, are unlikely to go along. This is from Yoram Ettinger in Yisrael Hayom.

In December 2012, a most thorough and detailed poll was conducted by one of the deans of Israeli pollsters, Mina Tzemach, on behalf of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. The poll demonstrates that Israelis respond to real local and regional developments — more than to wishful thinking — when shaping positions on the peace process, security requirements, land for peace, the two-state-solution and Iran.

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According to the December Mina Tzemach (Dahaf Polling Institute) poll, most Israelis assume that Palestinians are concerned about the existence — and not the size — of Israel, and therefore are very skeptical about the land-for-peace formula. Most Israelis do not trust Palestinian compliance with agreements, and therefore are dubious about the two-state solution, which they increasingly consider a two-state delusion.

For instance, 76% (83% among Israeli Jews) believe that an Israeli retreat to the pre-1967 sliver along the Mediterranean would not satisfy the Palestinians or other Arabs. Only 22% (15% among Israeli Jews) assume that such a concession would produce an end to the conflict.

About 74% of Israelis are convinced that strategic depth — a code word for Judea and Samaria — is pertinent to Israel’s national security. Only 21% discount the importance of strategic depth. Fully 66% disapprove (and 29% approve) a withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines in return for a peace accord with the Palestinians and all Arab countries. About 63% are against a withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines with minor modifications.

A ratio of 65:33 opposes the repartitioning of Jerusalem in the context of a peace accord; 65:31 reject a withdrawal from the Jordan Valley; 68:28 refuse evacuation of Ariel and western Samaria; 72:22 insist on retaining control over the blocs of Jewish settlements; 73:18 disapprove relinquishing control over the Judea and Samaria mountains that dominate Ben-Gurion International Airport; 67:22 insist that Israel retains control of Highway 443, which connects Jerusalem to the coastal plain via the West Bank.

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About 52% — compared with 49% in 2005 — consider secure boundaries superior to peace, compared with 36% who view peace as the prerequisite to security.

Most Israelis trust only the Israel Defense Forces to protect the country. For example, only 39% assume that Israel can rely on the U.S. military during an emergency. About 68% oppose the stationing of foreign troops — including U.S. troops — in the Jordan Valley. Only 26% would support such a deployment.

Steven Plaut cites another poll with similar results. 

Of the general population, when asked if they favor the existence of a Palestinian state, 66% oppose, 11% favor, and 23% are undecided or have a more ambiguous position.  Bear in mind that about 18% of Israelis are Arabs.  When asked if they favor construction in the E-1 area between Jerusalem and the Maaleh Adumim suburb, which has been in the news recently as a “controversy,” 51% support construction, 9% oppose, and 40% are not sure (probably do not know what it is about). When asked about allowing Jews to pray on the Temple Mount, 71% support and 7% oppose.  When asked what they think of Supreme Court judicial review of laws, 48% oppose it, 41% support, and only 10% did not know.

When restricted to Israelis defining themselves as leaning Right, 54% of these are secularists, 27% say they are religiously “traditionalist,” 11% modern Orthodox, and 8% Chareidi.  This is notable because the media stereotype of the “Right” is as the ”Religious Right.”  But more than half of rightists are secularist, larger probably than the numbers among the Left or Center.  Women are more likely than men to identify with the Right, and the young more than the old.  About 24% of rightists have college or post-high school education, probably a bit less than the general population but not a lot less.  Income distribution of Rightists looks similar to that of the general population.

What I find amazing about this poll is that despite the fact that our mainstream media is somewhere to the left of the New York Times (Ettinger's poll appeared in Yisrael HaYom, a paper financed by Sheldon Adelson specifically to stand up to our Leftist media, while Plaut cites the Hebrew-language Maariv, but his article comes from a US-based website), most Israelis get it and ignore the indoctrination efforts of the likes of Haaretz and YNet. Most Israelis aren't stupid or suicidal and we're not going to get rid of a Right wing government just because Obama doesn't like it.

However, the bizarre thing is that if Israelis were convinced that the 'Palestinians' 'really' wanted peace, a large percentage of them would probably agree to retreat to the 1949 armistice lines or awfully close to them. That's why you keep seeing polls that say that 'most Israelis' favor a 'two-state solution.'

Labels: 1949 armistice lines, Barack Hussein Obama, Israeli polls, two-state solution

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:36 PM