Israel Matzav

Is Dagan realistic?

Here's some more from that Meir Dagan session this morning, which may help give you an idea why I think he's so off base.

Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan predicted Wednesday that the Arab Spring will not reach Jordan and that in case it did "the regime would find the right way to satisfy the people's wishes with reforms."

I think it would be a shame if it doesn't reach Jordan, because then Jordan will become the 'Palestinian' state. But I think it will reach Jordan and that Abdullah will go quietly once it does. Abdullah is not Assad and doesn't have the stomach to start murdering his people.

Dagan estimated that the Arab Spring is far from over. "I am worried about Islamist parties with a radical agenda that will take power. It will present a big problem for us," he said.

Asked about the situation in Syria, Dagan said: "Assad has to go, we need to help anyone who is working to get rid of him." He estimated that the outcomes in Syria will affect the entire region, particularly Lebanon.

I agree with the concern about the Islamists, but if that is true, why back the al-Qaeda-led rebels in Syria? And as to Lebanon, Hezbullah is firmly in charge and doesn't need Syria's help - except to take their weapons out of storage.

But the most curious thing about that session was the quip - I think by the moderator - that this was the first time she had heard Dagan speak in recent years without mentioning Iran. Maybe even he is beginning to realize that sanctions are not going to work and that there is no choice.

Labels: Iranian nuclear threat, Jordan, Meir Dagan, Syrian uprising

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:09 PM