Israel Matzav

Whom does Lapid threaten?

Yair Lapid, son of anti-religious, anti-American-immigrant former politician Tommy Lapid, announced his resignation from Channel 2 television on Sunday to run for the Knesset. But whom does he threaten? According to JPost, he threatens Kadima.

According to the poll, were the popular Lapid to run on a new party list, that party would receive 20 mandates, while Kadima would receive just nine.

If Lapid - who quit Channel 2 news Sunday to enter politics - were to run on Kadima's ballot, the center-left party would receive 32 mandates.

A separate survey Sunday, carried out by Professor Yitzhak Katz for a Channel 10 morning program, countered the Knesset Channel poll. The former revealed that an independent party including the former TV journalist and columnist for Yediot Aharonot would only receive seven mandates, a far cry from either the 20 mandates in the Knesset Channel poll, or the 15 revealed by a Shvakim Panorama poll released last week on Israel Radio.

And while many in the Center and Left have welcomed Lapid's midlife career swap - Kadima's MK Shaul Mofaz told Lapid himself he wanted the former anchorman to "topple the awful [Prime Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu government" - his effect will be far more tangible on that side of the political spectrum, rather than on the Right.

According to both the Knesset Channel and Channel 10 polls, an independent Lapid party would not negatively affect Likud. If the vote were carried out today, the Knesset Channel and Channel 10 polls found that Likud would receive 29 or 27 mandates, respectively.

But at least one minister believes that Lapid could threaten Likud's rule.

On Sunday senior Likud officials said Lapid would not have any influence on the ruling party's power, but Minister Michael Eitan said Monday that the former TV news anchor's move could threaten Likud's rule.

"We are losing the support of our moderate voters, and if this continues, we will be overthrown because people will vote for Lapid, who will become more attractive than what Likud currently represents," he said.

Speaking to Ynet, Eitan said "Lapid could threaten Likud by effecting change within the various blocs." According to the minister, Lapid's move to politics will force Likud to "get back to stressing liberal and democratic values."

He said Likud "must be careful because some of its supporters may potentially back Lapid."

Eitan said that recent polls showed that many people who voted Likud in past elections have not remained loyal to the party and eventually changed their voting patterns.

"The (voters) Likud got back from Kadima in 2009 are not loyal to the party," he said. "They can easily vote for another party in the next elections unless Likud places an emphasis on liberal and democratic values."

Eitan warned that the "radicalization" of Likud may cause some of its "centrist" supporters to back Lapid. "I am concerned because lately Likud has been leaning to the right – also due to the existing coalition," he stated.

However, the minister expressed hope that following the next elections Likud would be able to forge a coalition with Kadima and Lapid's party. "Likud will remain the largest party, but the strengthening of the center will allow the government to work on a constitution and establish a bloc that will seek to safeguard Israel as a Jewish and democratic country," he said.

Somehow, I don't see a whole lot of Likud supporters (other than several people who occupy high positions on the ticket who brought in by Netanyahu who are out of sync with the party) supporting Lapid. Look at the next sentence.

Nahum Rosman, Lapid's neighbor, told Ynet "here in Ramat Aviv (north Tel Aviv neighborhood) he will get many votes, but so did (President Shimon) Peres - and it did not help him. His success depends on the developments in Israel this coming year."

Ramat Aviv is the most Leftist area of Tel Aviv.

Labels: Kadima, Likud party, Yair Lapid

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:40 PM