Israel Matzav

Some thoughts for 2012

Here are some sobering thoughts for 2012 from Yoram Ettinger's Friday column in Yisrael HaYom.

The 2012 Arab street could dwarf the seismic events of 2011, impacting national and regional security and the resulting security requirements. The lower the stability and life expectancy of Middle East regimes, the shiftier their ideologies, policies and commitments -- such as Egypt’s and Jordan’s peace accords with Israel -- become. The higher the volatility of the Arab street, the higher the security threshold and requirements in the face of that volatility. Moreover, as the U.S.’s strategic arm becomes shorter, its posture of deterrence becomes less effective, rogue regimes become more adrenalized, the threat of war becomes more acute and security requirements in the face of the stormy Arab street grow.

The threshold of Israel’s security requirements is rising as the threats mount.

According to U.S. Lt. Gen. (ret.) Tom Kelly, Chief of Operations in the 1991 Gulf War, "I cannot defend this land (Israel) without that terrain (West Bank) ... Without the West Bank, Israel is only 8 miles wide at its narrowest point. That makes it indefensible."

Former U.S. Marine Corps commander Gen. (ret.) Al Gray stated that “missiles fly over any terrain feature, but they don't negate the strategic significance of territorial depth ... To defeat Israel would require the Arabs to deploy armor, infantry and artillery into Israel ... It remains true in the era of modern missiles.”

The Judea and Samaria mountain ridges -- which hold the cradle of Jewish history and rise 2,000 to 3,000 ft. to tower over the Jordan Valley, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and 80 percent of Israel’s infrastructure -- constitute the most effective tank obstacle. They are a dream platform of invasion into the 8- to 15-mile wide pre-1967 Israel, in the most conflict-ridden, unpredictable and treacherous neighborhood in the world, where there has never been an intra-Arab comprehensive peace, or intra-Arab compliance with most intra-Arab agreements. The Judea and Samaria mountain ridges are indispensable to Israel’s survival in the raging Middle East.

An insecure Israel would be a liability, rather than an asset, to the U.S. An insecure Israel would not be able to deter an Arab invasion of Jordan -- which could spill over into Saudi Arabia -- as Israel conducted in September 1970, when the U.S. was bogged down in Vietnam. An insecure Israel would not be able to perform as the late U.S. Gen. Alexander Haig described: “The largest U.S. aircraft carrier which does not require a single U.S. soldier, saving the U.S. $20 billion annually.”

The next time someone tells you that we should give up Judea and Samaria for a 'Palestinian' reichlet, throw that at them.

Labels: Israel's critical security needs, Judea and Samaria

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:41 AM