Israel Matzav

Israeli simulation claims Israel could strike Iran after a nuke test

It is assumed in some circles that Israel would not strike Iran once Iran tests a nuclear weapon, out of fear of being hit with a nuclear response. Now, an Israeli think-tank simulation has concluded that Israel could strike Iran even after a successful Iranian nuclear test.

“The simulation shows that Israel’s military option continues to be a significant lever ... this option, or the threat to use it, is also relevant after an Iranian nuclear test,” said the report by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, which carried out the simulation.

Yoel Guzansky and Yonatan Lerner, the two Institute for National Security Studies analysts who authored the report, added: “In our assessment, the likelihood of an Israeli attack once Iran is in possession of proven nuclear capability decreases dramatically, although it is not entirely eliminated.”

The starting point for the simulation was the announcement of a successful Iranian underground nuclear test in January 2013. From the viewpoint of Israel, such an announcement would leave only “a short window of time for military action against Iranian nuclear facilities before the initial nuclear capability proven by the test is translated into reliable operational capability”.

The simulation left open whether Israel would indeed launch an attack on Iran, though it suggested that the country would lean heavily on the US at least to keep open the option of a strike. In addition, Israel would “emphasise” that it has “second-strike capability, which includes survival of decision makers” in case of an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel.

“The fact that Iran’s territory is larger than Israel’s does not make Iran less vulnerable, since ultimately, in the event of a nuclear attack, the targets will be large cities,” the report said, summarising Israel’s position in the simulation.

Sorry folks, but I get very little comfort out of an assessment that says that the likelihood of an Israeli attack "decreases dramatically" once there is a proven Iranian nuclear capability.

Moreover, the fact that we have a second strike capability has very limited value when contending with an irrational, apocalyptic government that may not be deterred by the prospect of having thousands of its own people killed. And it would be foolish to absorb a first strike with all its casualties if we are capable of preemption.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Iranian nuclear threat

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:31 PM