Not Iran, not Hezbiullah, but a President afraid of Allah
Michael Totten reports that - surprise - whoever replaces Bashar al-Assad isn't any more likely to be friendly to Israel. More than 70 percent of Syria’s citizens are Sunni, but Assad is an Alawite, and Hezbollah and Iran are Shia. Most Syrians naturally want someone from their own sectarian community at the wheel, not only because they’d be more comfortable with that at home, but also because they want a president who aligns himself with the Sunni Arab mainstream in the region at large.Probably a fair assessment.
Syrian demonstrators are not, as you may have noticed, chanting slogans against Hamas, which is Sunni, or burning Hamas flags.
Syria’s Alawite regime is bound to fall eventually, even if it doesn’t happen this year. I wouldn’t expect anything like a liberal democracy to emerge in its place, though, nor would I expect a pro-Western alignment or a peace treaty with Israel. Regime-change in Syria would, however, give Hezbollah and the Iranian government a serious case of heartburn, and it would open up some breathing space next door in Lebanon. It would be a good thing for us, even if it would not be a wonderful thing, and the West should push for it now, and push for it hard.
Labels: Bashar al-Assad, Syrian uprising
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:32 AM
1 Comments:
Agreed. One shouldn't expect decades of brainwashing and servility under the Ba'ath dictatorship to disappear overnight. But in the long run a Syria not in cahoots with Iran and Hezbollah would change the strategic environment to Israel's benefit.
When Assad and the Alawite regime eventually collapses, few in Israel will shed tears for it.
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