Lessons learned
At the end of a detailed explanation of why Israel's Labor party has disintegrated, Barry Rubin summarizes the lessons learned by Israelis over the last 17 years. What outsiders don’t understand is that Israeli politics today is not a function of internal ideology or personality but a response to an environment where there is no realistic alternative for transforming the regional situation.I'm not sure he's right about 'this year,' but he's right about all the rest of it.
Israelis learned important lessons during the peace process of the 1990s. They discovered that the Palestinians and Syria are not interested in peace. They realized that the Islamists want to wipe Israel off the map. And they concluded that Western allies are not necessarily reliable. The left’s formula — as even Barak came to understand — didn’t work. Wishful thinking is no substitute for realism.
There is absolutely nothing on the horizon, despite a lot of fantasy Western media coverage and policy thinking, to change that.
Moreover, the Netanyahu-led government has done a credible job of handling the issues, including maintaining good relations with the Obama administration. Meanwhile, Israel’s economy is doing remarkably well.
That’s not to say there aren’t problems. But neither are the problems so great, nor the alternatives so obvious or attractive, nor the other candidates for leadership so attractive to provoke a change. Bet on Netanyahu to win another term in office, probably this year.
Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, Kadima, Labor party, Likud party, Tzipi Livni
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:08 PM
2 Comments:
Just what I said... Netanyahu will handily win that third term because life in Israel is good and the opposition has not been able to show how a policy of one sided Israeli concessions will bring the Palestinians to make real peace with Israel. Most Israeli Jews recognize they live in a dangerous neighborhood and peace is a long time away, if it ever happens. And it won't happen this year.
Don't be so sure, Israeli's always love to look for the bad. In offices with my secular co-workers, many are extremely committed to Kadima because "the current government isn't doing anything about running the country...taxes are still high, roads aren't getting built fast enough, schools are a mess, crime rates are growing, illegal immigration isn't being dealt with, etc, etc, etc". And they have a point, the general running of the country is poor even if the security and world political situation is balanced ok.
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