Israel Matzav

If Hezbullah takes over Lebanon

With Lebanon's March 14 (pro-Western) coalition being abandoned by the United States and other Western countries, Lebanon's leaders are doing what they feel they have to do to ensure their personal survival and that of their people. On Friday, Druse leader Walid Jumblatt threw his lot in with Syria and Hezbullah, the murderers of his father and of his friend, Rafik al-Hariri.

“After the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) took a turn to become politicized par excellence, it has become a threat to national unity and security,” he added during a press conference held amid conflicting reports on his Democratic Gathering bloc’s choice for the nomination of Lebanon’s next prime minister.

Jumblatt also said that regional initiatives on the Lebanese political crisis called for the abrogation of Lebanon’s agreement with the STL and the country’s withdrawal of its judges from the tribunal, but added that international interference sabotaged the initiatives.

“These points were set by Assad, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Speaker Nabih Berri.”

Jumblatt holds 11 seats in Lebanon's parliament. 65 are required to win. Before Jumblatt's announcement, Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri led Hezbullah 60-57. But there is no guarantee that all of Jumblatt's MP's will follow him in voting for Hezbullah's candidate for Prime Minister (who is likely to be former Prime Minister Omar Karami - under Lebanon's constitution, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim).

Jumblatt's announcement has prompted warnings from two quarters. The first is Lebanese Christian leader Samir Geagea.

If Hizbullah dominates the next Lebanese government, Lebanon will “turn into Gaza,” Samir Geagea, leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces, warned at a press conference in Beirut on Saturday.

Geagea also warned that in such a scenario, Lebanon’s economy would be devastated and freedoms would be repressed.

The Christian leader was referring to Hamas’s takeover of Gaza in 2007 and the devastation of its economy that followed. Both Hamas and Hizbullah are funded by Iran.

”Did any one wonder what will happen to the Lebanese pound if the other side assumes power in Lebanon?” Geagea asked.

Geagea is speaking only in terms of the economic devastation and religious persecution that he and his co-religionists are likely to face in the event of a Hezbullah takeover of his country. But there's a far bigger issue that ought to concern all Lebanese: What Israel's reaction might be. Hezbullah is much stronger than Hamas, and has much more (both in quantity and quality) devastating firepower to throw at Israel than Hamas has. And that, points out Michael Totten makes Israeli restraint much less likely (Hat Tip: Challah Hu Akbar).

Everybody in Lebanon needs to understand something: Israel is more likely than ever to target the entire country during the next round of conflict. Not since 1948 has Israel fought a war against the Lebanese government; its wars in Lebanon have always been waged against terrorist organizations that were beyond the control of the state.

But if Hezbollah leads the government, the government will be a legitimate target. That’s how it works. Regime-change in Lebanon would have been an insane policy with Hariri’s March 14 coalition in charge, but it won’t be if Hezbollah is calling the shots.

Totten is correct. Everyone here in Israel is watching the goings on in Lebanon with trepidation. This is Vice Premier and former Foreign Minister Sylvan Shalom (Likud):

Vice Premier Silvan Shalom said Saturday that the decision of the Lebanese Druse Leader Walid Jumblatt to join Hizbullah in establishing a new government creates a real danger of the establishment of an Iranian government on the northern border with Israel.

In remarks at a cultural event in Bat Yam, he said "this is no longer a terrorist organization inspired and supported by Iran, but a real sovereign government."

He added that "this is a dangerous development that requires Israel to follow closely and be prepared for any future development."

Jumblatt's move is not surprising if viewed in the context of the Druse approach to politics. This is Totten in a different piece.

The Druze, like the Maronites, are too few to build their own state. They don’t even appear to want their own state, opting instead for caution to insure themselves against persecution. Kamal Jumblatt, the father of Lebanon’s current Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, once explained his people this way: “Ever alert, [Druze] gauge their surroundings and choose their words carefully, assessing what must be said and what can be said.”

They’re loyal to whoever is in charge of the country they live in. Syria’s Druze side with Bashar Assad and the Baath Party. Lebanon’s Druze forge alliances with the majority coalition of local political parties, or with whoever is ruling Lebanon from the outside. Israeli Druze support and defend the Zionist project.

By his words on Friday, Jumblatt showed that he sees Hezbullah as the stronger party in Lebanon. That is a direct result of the lack of support given to the March 14 coalition by the Bush administration (at least from mid-2008 when Hezbullah took over much of the country) and by the Obama administration. By their display of collective weakness, Bush and Obama have brought about a situation where Hezbullah is poised to take over the entire country of Lebanon, and bring about a far worse war than anything we have seen in the last 37 years. As Lee Smith would point out, Hezbullah has become the strong horse. To survive in this neighborhood, Israel may have to re-establish its deterrence.

Labels: Lebanese government collapse, Saad Hariri, Samir Geagea, Special Tribunal for Lebanon, strong horse, Walid Jumblatt

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:04 AM