Israel Matzav

The real pro-Israel lobby is the American public

Throw that book in the toilet. The Emergency Committee for Israel has found the real Israel lobby in the United States: The American public. The proof is in this poll (pdf link). The numbers are astounding.

An astounding 93 percent of those polled say the United States should be concerned about the security of the state of Israel. A majority—54 percent—say the U.S. should be “very concerned” about Israel’s security. Virtually the same number care that their elected representatives be pro-Israel. When asked, “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate whom you perceive as pro-Israel?,” 53 percent say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate they saw as pro-Israel, 24 percent less likely. Even more striking, the same number—53 percent—say they could not vote for a candidate if he were anti-Israel, even if that candidate agreed with them on most other issues.

But there's still a partisan divide.

Among those intending to vote Republican this fall, 69 percent would be more likely to vote for a candidate who was pro-Israel, 15 percent would be less likely—a margin of 54 percent. On the other hand, among Democratic voters, the pro-Israel margin is only 7 percent—40 percent of Democratic voters are more likely to vote for a pro-Israel candidate, 33 percent are less likely. Conservatives (and Tea Party sympathizers) mirror Republicans; their pro-Israel margins are also over 50 percent. The margin among self-described liberals is only 5 percent. And while Fox News fans are very pro-Israel, by 73 percent to 16 percent, devotees of the New York Times are actually negative on Israel, by 30 percent to 35 percent.

The bottom line: The public is strongly pro-Israel. But the public consists basically of two groups. The GOP/conservative/Fox News-viewing part of the public is overwhelmingly pro-Israel. The Democratic/liberal/New York Times-reading part of America is... comme-ci, comme-ca.

Now least you think that ECI skewed this poll in favor of Israel, consider this from William Kristol (same link as above):

Before getting to Israel, we might note that the survey found the GOP ahead in the generic congressional ballot by about four points. That’s a somewhat smaller margin than that found by several other likely voter surveys during this period. We might also note that 33 percent of those polled identified themselves as Republican, and 40 percent as Democratic, which suggests a sample a bit more Democratic than the norm. So this was not a GOP-tilting survey.

Politico's Ben Smith agrees:

[W]hile there are always reasons to be skeptical of polls by advocacy groups that back their views, the sample -- 51% of those surveyed have a favorable view of Obama's defense and national security policy -- tilts if anything slightly more toward the White House than other recent public polling.

The results suggest that President Obama's stance toward the Middle East is not as popular as his foreign policy as a whole, with a plurality disapproving of his handling of Israel and, strikingly, 47% saying his policy of "outreach to the Muslim world" has "decreased" U.S. security, to the 33% who say it's increased our security.

The poll -- using questions that some may find leading -- finds large majorities don't believe that the U.S. can stop Iran's nuclear program with sanctions, and surprising numbers are open to military action: 60% said they'd support a military strike if sanctions don't work.

Underlying this: While a slim plurality said Iran was unlikely to shoot a nuclear weapon at the U.S. (the questions don't worry too much about the actual capabilities), large majorities said they thought it likely that Ian would attack Israel (80%) or provide a nuclear weapon to terrorists (85%).

Jennifer Rubin adds:

The public gives thumbs down on Obama’s approach to Israel. A large plurality (43 to 30 percent) think Obama is harming Israel’s security, and by a 52 to 30 percent margin, voters think Obama is less friendly to Israel than past presidents. By a 54 to 27 percent margin, voters disapprove of Obama’s public criticism of Israel but not the Palestinians.

The poll also tests some J Streetisms. Guess what? Americans aren’t buying what Soros Street is peddling. Do Israel’s policies force Palestinians to become terrorists? By a 59 to 27 percent margin, voters say no. Are they “strongly opposed to an attack by the U.S. or Israel on Iran”? Only 35 percent say they are; 53 percent seem to think it might be a good idea. Only 12 percent hold Israel and its West Bank policies responsible for the conflict; 57 percent say it is the Palestinians’ fault. Nor do they sign on to the notion that a peace deal will diminish Arab hostility toward the U.S. Eighty-two percent say Arabs will find other excuses.

So throw that book in the toilet. It's 100% wrong.

And if Prime Minister Netanyahu is listening, please note that even if Obama doesn't support us, the American people do.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:35 AM