Israel Matzav

Hmmm....

Meir Javedanfar argues that the real reason that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is going to Lebanon isn't to throw stones at Israel. It's to shore up his flagging fortunes at home.

However, what both the US and Israel should note is that the biggest reason why Ahmadinejad has decided to go to Lebanon is domestic. Israel and the US are further down his list of priorities.

The Iranian president is visiting Lebanon mainly because of his growing unpopularity at home. In fact, Ahmadinejad has never been more unpopular in Iran, not only with the public but also his conservative allies and the clergy. By going to Lebanon, he is going to one of the last places where the Islamic Republic still has genuine support. When he speaks in Bint Jbeil, unlike in Iran, schools won't be closed and civil servants won't be threatened with dismissal unless they attend the president's speech. People will voluntarily turn up because they genuinely support the Islamic republic and will pay respect to almost any senior Iranian politician.

By going to Lebanon, Ahmadinejad will primarily be using the occasion to try to strengthen his support back home with the public, and with the Revolutionary Guards, whose support is important to him. He will also be trying to outshine his rivals such as Ali Larijani and Hashemi Rafsanjani by using the trip to say that he is the true face of Iran abroad, and not them.

This development will also benefit supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who is most probably very concerned about Ahmadinejad's flagging popularity.

What is important to note is that such a visit did not take place when Khatami was president. If anyone deserves to be in southern Lebanon, it is him, and not Ahmadinejad. Israel evacuated southern Lebanon in May 2000 on Khatami's watch, not Ahmadinejad's.

However, Khamenei did not send Khatami to southern Lebanon because he was not worried about his unpopularity. In fact, compared with Ahmadinejad, he was far more popular. The opposite is true about Ahmadinejad and this is why Khamenei, for the sake of his regime, is sending him there.

Another important goal of the trip is to solidify the foundations of Iran's anti-Israel policy which has been weakening recently. The regime is becoming increasingly concerned about opposition chants such as "No Gaza, no Lebanon, my life for Iran". Prior to the recent Qods Day, newspapers were full of articles about why this chant undermines the lessons of Ayatollah Khomeini's teachings. The very fact that so much attention was paid to it is a clear sign of concern. Such concern reached new highs after Ali Saeedlou, vice-president and head of Physical Education Organisation, sent a letter to Khamenei asking him to clarify whether Iranian sportsmen must boycott Israeli athletes. After 31 years, the very fact that senior officials are questioning what has been the unquestionable until now is a sign of cracks appearing in one of the pillars of the regime's anti-Israeli policies.

Hmmm. Let's hope Javedanfar is right.

Read the whole thing.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:45 PM