The window is closing?
Is the window closing on the 'Palestinian state'? A curious formulation from Barack Obama in Friday's press conference leads to some interesting speculation by Aaron Lerner. Here is what he said:My guess is that the window is closing on an agreement between Israel and the 'Palestinians' on the creation of a 'Palestinian state.'
"...President Abbas...understood the window for creating a Palestinian state is closing."
How are we to interpret this message - especially in light of the Palestinian plan that in the event that the negotiations with Israel end without the creation of a state (including if Mahmoud Abbas walks away because the settlement freeze is not extended) the Palestinian state will created via a process without Israel's consent (for example, via action at the United Nations)?
Why would the "window" be "closing" if the Palestinian state would be created via the UN? If anything, assuming that the PA continues with its "institution building" program, as time goes on they will be in a better position to argue in the UN that they are prepared to be an independent state. So the "window" for a Palestinian state via the UN rather than talks with Israel doesn't seem to be "closing".
And yet, here is the president of the United States saying that the window is closing.
At the same time, the window may be closing on the Obama administration's term in office. Can Fayyad have enough 'institutions' to make a case to the UN Security Council in the 28 months remaining in the Obama administration so as to avoid a veto? Does he need 'enough'?
My bet is that Obama will not get a second term and that like Reagan in 1988 (when he 'recognized' the PLO), Obama in late 2012 will not veto a Security Council resolution creating a 'Palestinian state.' Regardless of what 'institutions' Fayyad has established by then.
What could go wrong?
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:13 PM
2 Comments:
I wish the window would close already but someone has to get Bibi's foot out of the way.
If the Palestinian state does not exist before the Saudi deadline, the oil price will go up and the US will go under.
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