Israel Matzav

Testing the Russian re-set?

Last week, the IAEA issued a devastating report on Iran's continuing efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.

Iran has not provided the necessary cooperation to permit the Agency to confirm that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities. Iran is not implementing the requirements contained in the relevant resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, including implementation of the Additional Protocol, which are essential to building confidence in the exclusively peaceful purpose of its nuclear program.

And that's just a summary.

Since the current U.S. administration took office, extending its hand to the leaders in Tehran, Iran has: continued to violate a series of U.N. Security Council Resolutions, now numbering six; increased its declared capacity to enrich uranium by about one-third -- despite U.N. Security Council Resolutions requiring that it halt enrichment; nearly tripled its stocks of low-enriched uranium; begun production of small quantities of uranium enriched to 20 percent, versus earlier production at 3.5 percent; revealed a secret, underground enrichment facility near Qom, while announcing plans for several more; and continued to chip away at the IAEA's ability to monitor nuclear developments.

Against this string of successes for Tehran, those trying to curtail an Iranian bomb have met little joy. The IAEA has been unable to pry from Iran additional information about the once-secret Qom facility. The Agency's requests for more information about Iran's announcements earlier this year that it possessed laser enrichment and more advanced centrifuge technologies are unmet. Iran denied IAEA inspectors access to its heavy water production plant. Iran remains, in the words of the IAEA report, "the only State with significant nuclear activities which has a comprehensive safeguards agreement in force" that refuses to comply with a Code requiring early notification of plans to construct or modify major nuclear facilities. Most troubling, Iran continues to stonewall the IAEA's attempts to resolve questions regarding the possible existence of military-related nuclear work, "including activities related to development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

William Tobey argues that the current situation with Iran will provide a test of the value of President Obama's Russian re-set.

President Obama was right in Prague: "Rules must be binding. Violations must be punished. Words must mean something." Most importantly, "the world must stand together to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons." Confronted with another IAEA report detailing Iran's violations of its international obligations, the United States must again attempt to rally international support for effective action, and to provoke a real debate both in Tehran and among its allies over its nuclear program.

This will test the value of the Russian reset. Some Russians privately note that Iran is not a high priority for Moscow, but is for Washington, and that the difference will have to be paid for, if real action is to be taken. The administration has staked much on the reset with Russia -- now is the time to see whether that bet was a wise one.

As Iran marches towards nuclear capability, further delay will only narrow our options to a choice between the unacceptable and the unthinkable.

There is no more reason to think that Russia will cooperate now than there was a few months ago. In the meantime, while Obama wastes time with 're-sets' and 'engagement,' Iran marches inexorably toward a nuclear weapon. Obama is aiming an empty gun at Iran and they know it. He doesn't have the you-know-what's to load the gun.

It's going to fall to Israel and to Prime Minister Netanyahu to act. Will he have the courage to do what the 'leader of the free world' is afraid to do? The answer - based on his behavior in the last month - doesn't look promising.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:08 AM