Israel Matzav

Netanyahu, Nixon and Mao

When leftist columnist and Haaretz editor Aluf Benn starts singing the praises of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, those of us who are not members of Israel's suicidal left ought to be getting nervous.

[C]ontrary to popular wisdom, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is proving to be the most dovish leader that Israel has had in many years, one who is using military force cautiously and seeking, at long last, a diplomatic resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. "I came here today to find an historic compromise that will enable both our peoples to live in peace and security and in dignity," he said at last week's Middle East peace summit at the White House. These are words that most Israelis never expected to hear "Bibi" utter.

Indeed, in one of the more intriguing political evolutions in recent memory, Netanyahu is starting to look a lot like another hard-liner who eventually engaged his longtime adversaries: Richard Nixon, on the occasion of his visit to China.

Like Nixon, Netanyahu has pulled off a political comeback, having returned to power a decade after losing a reelection bid. Much as Nixon was a poster boy for anti-communism, Netanyahu has ridden the wave of counterterrorism. Like Nixon, he has fought liberals and peaceniks throughout his career, and has relished the antagonism of a news media that he regards as hostile and left-leaning.

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What caused Netanyahu to rethink his long-held ideology? To be sure, he did not go through a midlife left-wing epiphany any more than Nixon did. Rather, he succumbed to American pressure, and this, too, speaks in his favor. Statecraft requires reading power relationships correctly and acting accordingly.

Past right-wing Israeli leaders went through similar about-faces. Menachem Begin gave the entire Sinai back to Egypt only weeks after he pledged to spend his retirement in an Israeli settlement there. Ariel Sharon demolished the settlements in Gaza shortly after declaring them as important as Tel Aviv. Yitzhak Shamir, the toughest of the breed, put aside his beliefs to attend the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference. All these leaders were said to have "reckoned with reality" -- which, in Israeli political parlance, is a euphemism for "dependence on America."

With no serious domestic challengers, Netanyahu knows that he is the strongest Israeli leader in a generation. Looking outside, however, he sees mostly trouble: His country is ever more isolated from an international community that increasingly rejects Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories, its settlements and its excessive use of force. At the same time, he is deeply alarmed by Iran's quest for nuclear weapons, coupled with what he describes as its effort to "delegitimize" the Jewish state. He sees Israel's sheer existence, not its controversial policies, as the matter at stake.

He therefore wants President Obama to help neutralize the Iranian threat -- and he understands that Obama's price for that help will be Israeli concessions in the West Bank. And so, as Obama toughens his stance toward Iran and expands security cooperation with Israel, Netanyahu softens his tone vis-à-vis the Palestinians.

I'm afraid that Benn is largely getting it correct, and that Netanyahu is buckling under pressure from the Obama White House. Will that pressure continue after November? Unfortunately, I bet that it will, particularly if there's a bloodbath of Democrats and Obama concludes he has no chance of being re-elected to a second term.

Can anything stop it? Several things can: 1. The 'Palestinians' act like the 'Palestinians' and miss the opportunity. 2. Israel's coalition doesn't bend to Netanyahu the way Sharon's coalition bended to Sharon six years ago. 3. The deal is submitted to a public referendum and the public rejects it. None of those is a sure thing, particularly the third one, which could be influenced by an expensive and devious US-financed political campaign.

While the 'Palestinians' are not currently an existential threat to Israel - just as China was not an existential threat to the US 40 years ago - placing a 'Palestinian'-controlled terror entity within shooting range of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv could conceivably be an existential threat to Israel.

Israelis need to start voicing their opposition to the so-called 'peace process' and not wait to be presented with a fait accomplis. Otherwise, we could find ourselves with a scene that's 50 times worse than the Gaza expulsion. And that's much more dangerous than Nixon shaking hands with Mao and abandoning a tiny ally.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:32 AM