Israel Matzav

We should find out if this is correct really soon

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon may yet regret an interview he gave to the Jerusalem Post earlier this week, in which he said that it was unlikely that Hezbullah would start a war this summer to distract attention from the Hariri probe.

While it is “absolutely not inconceivable” that Hizbullah will try to provoke Israel in order to divert attention from the likelihood that it will be indicted in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told The Jerusalem Post this week that such a scenario was unlikely.

Ayalon said that while in the past, “Hizbullah, Hamas and others” have used Israel as a means of diverting attention from domestic matters, “I don’t think this will be the case this time around.”

First of all, he said, Israel has made clear on more than one occasion and through a number of different channels that it would hold Lebanon responsible for any attacks or provocations carried out from Lebanese territory.

Second, Ayalon said, Hizbullah represents Iran’s interests – rather than Lebanon’s – “and I’m not sure it is in Iran’s interest at this time to use the Hizbullah card” because the sanctions imposed on Teheran over the past few weeks have started to bite hard.

“I believe that Iran is on the verge of a collapse economically and socially,” Ayalon said. As a result, he added, Iran’s interest was to “change the situation,” something that a Hizbullah-provoked war in the North would not serve.

Other officials have said over the last few months that Iran viewed Hizbullah as a weapon to be used against Israel if Jerusalem decided to attack Iran, and that Teheran would not want to risk a local Israel-Hizbullah confrontation now for fear that this could severely weaken the Lebanese group and remove it as an effective weapon in Iran’s arsenal.

Unless they're trying to have Hezbullah lead and Iran follow....

I have already noted that the IDF said that Tuesday's attack came on an IDF force conducting routine maintenance work on the Israeli side of the border in coordination with UNIFIL. The 'Palestinian' Maan agency is reporting that Lebanon claims that the IDF tried to cut down a tree inside Lebanon. But in the same report they claim that Israel was trying to install surveillance cameras.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:28 PM